Speculation: Roster Building Thread LVIII: At part 58, I am out of titles.

[mas0764]

Anybody worried about a Toronto cap scenario in the near future?

Maybe not for a few years but all these kids will get raises, etc in a short time. It’s not like a video game where you build a star team from 19-30. Will the Rangers be in a cap mess like Toronto within 4 years?

Anybody concerned?

No.

We will have plenty of money for the foreseeable future, assuming no more huge free agent splashes.

 

[NYSPORTS]

There's not a day that goes by that I don't think about Toronto as a cautionary tale that I hope we haven't painted ourselves into.

That’s what i’m thinking.

Few think the cap will be an issue yet look at Toronto and how quickly they’re getting top heavy. Marner is only 21/22 and the Leafs are already flexing creativity.

 

[mas0764]

I think most likely to happen will be:
Buy out Smith
Trade one of Names or Strome
RFA Approx:
Lemmy @ 1 mil
ADA @ 1.5
Buch @ 2.5
Trouba @ 7.85

This gives us about 1.25-2.5 in cap wiggle and something like:

Pan Ziba Kakko
Krieder Chytil Krat
Lias Names/Strome Buch
Lemmy Howton Fast
Open competition for 13

Skjei Trouba
Hajek ADA
Staal Fox/Shatty

Book it

I've been in two camps: One saying that I'd like to trade Kreider for a pick/prospect, or in a package for a young center with top 6 potential, and another camp in which I said I wouldn't mind "tanking" (ie, finishing in the bottom 10 due to youth) again, despite drafting Kakko and signing Panarin, so that we can get a center in next year's draft as well. That would be great, IMO -- adding two more centers with pedigree (one in a trade, one in next year's draft) to go along with Zibanejad. Then Chytil and Andersson can either be wings, or they can beat out the two centers I'm speculating about.

But I'll say this -- I think if we keep Kreider, I would say it almost is more likely than not that we make the playoffs.

 

[NYSPORTS]

No.

We will have plenty of money for the foreseeable future, assuming no more huge free agent splashes.

I’ve sold myself on that thinking too yet look at the Leafs. I see Staal, Shatty, Lundy and a few others opening a ton of cash yet that same cash plus could go real fast with a Kappo, Krav, Chit, Lias and about 9 other kids.

I’d like to think maintaining the nucleus for 7 years is possible yet i’m cautious b/c this group appears (bias) more upside than a Callahan, Stepan, Dubinsky type roster (which is a good thing yet could be short lived)

 

[NYSPORTS]

No, you do not extend Kreider long term.

 

[mas0764]

Not concerned at all. Sure, it's possible that both Kakko and Kravtsov could earn big paydays, but it's far from a given right now.

There are ways to kick the can down the road for either Kakko or Kravtsov if needed and honestly, it's not a bad idea to give them 2 year deals after their ELC's expire and then extend long term from there. The player doesn't have all of the leverage when they are RFA's.

It's such a non issue. I actually think we're in great shape. The league's cap is going to skyrocket due to a TV deal that triples in value right as we need to start handing out extensions.

If we can get people re-signed with the $25 million freed up from the Shattenkirk/Staal/Smith/Lunqvist expirings, those deals are going to look like steals when the cap rises.

 

[GAGLine]

There are ways to kick the can down the road for either Kakko or Kravtsov if needed and honestly, it's not a bad idea to give them 2 year deals after their ELC's expire and then extend long term from there. The player doesn't have all of the leverage when they are RFA's.

They don't, but that landscape has changed. More and more guys are getting huge deals coming out of their ELC. It might be in our best interest to just sign them long term.

Something that hasn't really been discussed is the new CBA. I wonder if the NHL might look to put limits on RFA pay. The NHLPA might be in favor of it since less money going to RFAs means more money going to UFAs. That might be better for the players overall. RFAs could still get big paydays, just not as much as they are currently getting in some cases. Maybe the limit is set at 10% of the cap. That would be 8.15 mil this year, which is still a huge raise. The limit would only be for RFA years and the limit could be exceeded via arbitration, so a player who has 1 RFA year left could sign a 7 year, 70 mil deal, but he couldn't make more than 10% of the cap in the first year. Or he could go to arbitration and argue that he is worth more than 10% of the cap.

 

[JESSEWENEEDTOCOOK]

we have like 4 guys signed past 2021 right now

the cap is in fine shape.

 

[Lion Hound]

Kreider is def a player i would extend. He isn't dead weight. He is a factor and should be kept.

Probelm is the org has dead weight elsewhere. That dead weight needs to be moved. That dead weight is keeping the club from producing a very legitimate top 6. Looking at you #18, #22, #42

 

[mas0764]

I’ve sold myself on that thinking too yet look at the Leafs. I see Staal, Shatty, Lundy and a few others opening a ton of cash yet that same cash plus could go real fast with a Kappo, Krav, Chit, Lias and about 9 other kids.

I’d like to think maintaining the nucleus for 7 years is possible yet i’m cautious b/c this group appears (bias) more upside than a Callahan, Stepan, Dubinsky type roster (which is a good thing yet could be short lived)

The Leafs aren't in bad shape either if they can weather the storm for another year or two. Who have the Leafs really lost at this point that they really, really wanted to keep? Patrick Marleau? Zaitsev?

Again, the Nylander, Tavares, Matthews, and future Marner deal will be great values for them once the cap rises. It's not going to keep increasing at this slow pace (and even if it does increase at this slow pace, by 2021 or 2022 it will hit the mid-90's or better, at the same rate of growth as the last 4 years). In a few years, it's going to rise sharply due to a new TV deal. They've been on the existing deal since 2011 and it's stale at this point. In 2021, the new deal projects to be much healthier for the league than the one they signed in 2011, both in terms of actual dollars, and relative to how good of a deal it looks like for the league in general. You've got a lot of networks who want a piece of the NHL broadcasting pie right now. Exclusivity probably won't last unless some network pays through the nose; and if it's not exclusive, you're gonna have multiple networks/streaming services paying high prices to get hockey content.

I'm very excited about the NHL's chances to get their product on TV here actually. Of course, it's the NHL, they could, in theory, screw it up. Or something else like a great recession could happen, but those things are all very unlikely. The likely outcome is that the NHL's $200 million a year TV deal jumps to, at worst, more like $450 million a year. I've seen speculation it goes up to more like $600 million a year or more. Leaving "inflation" aside, this would signal a much healthier situation for the NHL in general, ie, that there is demand to put this sport on TV in a lot more formats. I heard that maybe they even do two networks like the NFL does -- where CBS covers the AFC and Fox covers the NFC. The NHL could do something similar with East and West conferences.

 

[mas0764]

They don't, but that landscape has changed. More and more guys are getting huge deals coming out of their ELC. It might be in our best interest to just sign them long term.

Something that hasn't really been discussed is the new CBA. I wonder if the NHL might look to put limits on RFA pay. The NHLPA might be in favor of it since less money going to RFAs means more money going to UFAs. That might be better for the players overall. RFAs could still get big paydays, just not as much as they are currently getting in some cases. Maybe the limit is set at 10% of the cap. That would be 8.15 mil this year, which is still a huge raise. The limit would only be for RFA years and the limit could be exceeded via arbitration, so a player who has 1 RFA year left could sign a 7 year, 70 mil deal, but he couldn't make more than 10% of the cap in the first year. Or he could go to arbitration and argue that he is worth more than 10% of the cap.

In addition to what I said, there's this. We really have no idea what the free agency market is going to look like when our biggest fish come up for free agency.

They'd probably want to GET to unrestricted free agency earlier though, especially with the trend being that teams are considering everyone washed up at 29. You don't see Brendan Shanahans out there kicking around on one wheel at age 38 anymore.

 

[Chalfdiggity3]

It's such a non issue. I actually think we're in great shape. The league's cap is going to skyrocket due to a TV deal that triples in value right as we need to start handing out extensions.

If we can get people re-signed with the $25 million freed up from the Shattenkirk/Staal/Smith/Lunqvist expirings, those deals are going to look like steals when the cap rises.

A non issue? Can you see into the future? Do you have a time machine? There is no way that you know 100% that the cap will sky rocket bc of the new TV deal. Besides that the cap raising each season has gotten to be less and less every year, on top of that there is now talk that the league salary cap will be SET at a certain number for a few years until things are settled with the CBA. Instead of throwing money around and not caring what you spend on players, how about we be smart with our money for once in our organization? We are not an 18yo spending daddy's money on whatever we want. Hockey is a business and there is a massive benefit to the team if we are run like a business instead.

 

[Lindberg Cheese]

I've been in two camps: One saying that I'd like to trade Kreider for a pick/prospect, or in a package for a young center with top 6 potential, and another camp in which I said I wouldn't mind "tanking" (ie, finishing in the bottom 10 due to youth) again, despite drafting Kakko and signing Panarin, so that we can get a center in next year's draft as well. That would be great, IMO -- adding two more centers with pedigree (one in a trade, one in next year's draft) to go along with Zibanejad. Then Chytil and Andersson can either be wings, or they can beat out the two centers I'm speculating about.

But I'll say this -- I think if we keep Kreider, I would say it almost is more likely than not that we make the playoffs.

Agree, it doesn’t look like we’re getting value on Krieder now so keep him, he’s a valuable asset on and off the ice. If we don’t make the playoffs ok, sell him, Strome, Names, Shatty, whoever. But I think we will make the playoffs which is the step we need to take. Yes we could lose him for nothing or a 5th for his rights but the progress of the team takes the sting out.

 

[Chalfdiggity3]

The Leafs aren't in bad shape either if they can weather the storm for another year or two. Who have the Leafs really lost at this point that they really, really wanted to keep? Patrick Marleau? Zaitsev?

Again, the Nylander, Tavares, Matthews, and future Marner deal will be great values for them once the cap rises. It's not going to keep increasing at this slow pace (and even if it does increase at this slow pace, by 2021 or 2022 it will hit the mid-90's or better, at the same rate of growth as the last 4 years). In a few years, it's going to rise sharply due to a new TV deal. They've been on the existing deal since 2011 and it's stale at this point. In 2021, the new deal projects to be much healthier for the league than the one they signed in 2011, both in terms of actual dollars, and relative to how good of a deal it looks like for the league in general. You've got a lot of networks who want a piece of the NHL broadcasting pie right now. Exclusivity probably won't last unless some network pays through the nose; and if it's not exclusive, you're gonna have multiple networks/streaming services paying high prices to get hockey content.

I'm very excited about the NHL's chances to get their product on TV here actually. Of course, it's the NHL, they could, in theory, screw it up. Or something else like a great recession could happen, but those things are all very unlikely. The likely outcome is that the NHL's $200 million a year TV deal jumps to, at worst, more like $450 million a year. I've seen speculation it goes up to more like $600 million a year or more. Leaving "inflation" aside, this would signal a much healthier situation for the NHL in general, ie, that there is demand to put this sport on TV in a lot more formats. I heard that maybe they even do two networks like the NFL does -- where CBS covers the AFC and Fox covers the NFC. The NHL could do something similar with East and West conferences.

Except that these next few years they cant keep their young players bc they dont have the cap space to sign them. They will lose one of their big name players like marner and nylander.

 

[mas0764]

Kreider is def a player i would extend. He isn't dead weight. He is a factor and should be kept.

Probelm is the org has dead weight elsewhere. That dead weight needs to be moved. That dead weight is keeping the club from producing a very legitimate top 6. Looking at you #18, #22, #42

I'd move on from Kreider. I don't want to give him a 6-7 year deal. He's not dead weight now, but his value to us is the immediate future.

He's a winger only. Our top-6 wingers, in the longer future, are Kakko, Panarin, Kravtsov and Buch. If not also Chytil and/or Andersson, or anyone else we add to the roster. Where does Kreider fit in that group when he's 32? I don't see it.

Move on. If you miss the playoffs this year because of it, oh well. Get a pick and prospect in return.

 

[Chalfdiggity3]

In addition to what I said, there's this. We really have no idea what the free agency market is going to look like when our biggest fish come up for free agency.

They'd probably want to GET to unrestricted free agency earlier though, especially with the trend being that teams are considering everyone washed up at 29. You don't see Brendan Shanahans out there kicking around on one wheel at age 38 anymore.

That's fine, I want to be able to lock up our young players and being in a shitty cap situation won't allow us to be able to do trades like the trouba deal and prey on teams that have no cap room to fill out the rest of our roster to be q full time cup contender.

 

[mas0764]

A non issue? Can you see into the future? Do you have a time machine?

Yes, I do, it's called math. It allows you to predict such things as velocity, temperature.... and also value.

There is no way that you know 100% that the cap will sky rocket bc of the new TV deal.

No one knows anything down to 100%, including whether the sun will rise tomorrow.

But all logic points to a new TV deal being at LEAST twice the current value, and more likely closer to three times greater.

Where is all that money going to go? Into the owners pockets? No way, the players will strike.

Well, I guess in that scenario, I could be wrong, and there could be no more NHL.

But absent that, the players are going to demand the cap go up. And it will.

Use your head. This isn't me pulling things out of midair.

The NBA got a new TV deal and the cap skyrocketed. The same thing is about to happen to the NHL. This isn't guessing.

It's going up. There is likely to be an offseason when everyone has tons and tons of cap space, just like the NBA did. Even if they stagger the increases, we will be more than fine.

Besides that the cap raising each season has gotten to be less and less every year, on top of that there is now talk that the league salary cap will be SET at a certain number for a few years until things are settled with the CBA.

What the cap has done the past few years is more or less irrelevant when you consider there hasn't been a new TV deal since 2011, and there is one coming in 2021. So that is when the cap is going to start rising sharply.

But if you want to play that game, there's been about a 12% growth in the cap the past 4 years. Similar growth will see the cap at $92-$95 million over another 4 years. Still probably enough for us to squeak by when you consider all the money coming off our books.

Instead of throwing money around and not caring what you spend on players, how about we be smart with our money for once in our organization? We are not an 18yo spending daddy's money on whatever we want. Hockey is a business and there is a massive benefit to the team if we are run like a business instead.

I am being smart. You're the one who isn't thinking about the future.

 

[mas0764]

Except that these next few years they cant keep their young players bc they dont have the cap space to sign them. They will lose one of their big name players like marner and nylander.

This has not been true yet and may never be true.

 

[GAGLine]

A non issue? Can you see into the future? Do you have a time machine? There is no way that you know 100% that the cap will sky rocket bc of the new TV deal. Besides that the cap raising each season has gotten to be less and less every year, on top of that there is now talk that the league salary cap will be SET at a certain number for a few years until things are settled with the CBA. Instead of throwing money around and not caring what you spend on players, how about we be smart with our money for once in our organization? We are not an 18yo spending daddy's money on whatever we want. Hockey is a business and there is a massive benefit to the team if we are run like a business instead.

I'm pretty sure you can't see into the future either, so maybe you should be a bit less certain in your belief that buying out a contract will hurt us. The cap might not go up much over the next couple years because they want to keep escrow down, but the TV deals should give it a significant bump. How much? No one knows, obviously, but it won't be nothing. You can be sure of that.

I don't think anyone is suggesting that we waste cap space, but you don't seem capable of grasping the idea that we might not have a choice other than to buy someone out.

 

[Glen Sathers Cigar]

The Toronto cap situation does worry me as something that we could experience going forward.

HOWEVER, I think we will luck out in that our kids, if they all pan out and earn big deals, will be up for new contracts around when the cap should be jumping due to expansion and the new TV deal. So we may luck out in our timeline.

 

[mas0764]

The Toronto cap situation does worry me as something that we could experience going forward.

HOWEVER, I think we will luck out in that our kids, if they all pan out and earn big deals, will be up for new contracts around when the cap should be jumping due to expansion and the new TV deal. So we may luck out in our timeline.

The Toronto situation is something to be conscious of, and to plan for, but it doesn't mean we're screwed. Toronto hasn't lost anyone truly vital at this stage.

If we play this right, we could actually be in tremendous shape. If we give long term deals to Kravtsov and Kakko at, say, Sebastien Aho rates plus 10% cap rise inflation right before the new TV deal (so, let's say, $9.5 million deals over 7 years), then the following offseason, the cap goes up sharply.

The next year, that same extension off an ELC might cost $11-$12million, and only get higher from there. Meanwhile we have two studs on contracts long term. 3 years into those deals, those guys wouldn't be albatrosses, they might be looked at as steals.... comparable right now to Pastrnak or McKinnon under contract for 4 more years at 6 million. Those guys on the open market right now would get eight figures.

 

[NYRFANMANI]

I find it amusing to see how cautious people are with predictions for Kakko. You can tell people have no experience with super high-end prospects like him. Checking forward, give me a break. Kakko is instantly our best shooter, maybe contested by Zibs. I feel some want to underestimate him for whatever reason.

To me this kid is veni, vidi, vici. He is 100%ly top-6 from the get-go.

 

[The Crypto Guy]

we have like 4 guys signed past 2021 right now

the cap is in fine shape.

This isnt NHL 19. Keep looking further.

 

[haveandare]

That’s what i’m thinking.

Few think the cap will be an issue yet look at Toronto and how quickly they’re getting top heavy. Marner is only 21/22 and the Leafs are already flexing creativity.

Dubas made a number of stupid decisions and they’re only in the spot they are because they drafted two insanely productive players and one pretty good one in Nylander. If we get to that point we’ll be lucky and I have full faith Gorton will manage it better than Dubas

 

[NYRFANMANI]

Oops.