Speculation: Roster Building Thread LVIII: At part 58, I am out of titles.

[Chalfdiggity3]

Good post.

We do disagree.

and Brendan Smith is nothing more than a temporary fill-in for a bad team in a bind. For a competitive NHL team, he’s below the grade for anything dressable. Moreover, he’s one of the lowest IQ players I’ve ever seen, completely irresponsible with a propensity for atrocious penalties and finding himself out of position. While he has some talent, he’s Exhibit A of what NOT to do as a dman.

I do not want him as an example of anything other than how to be a good dad in Hartford.

And I see him as a temporary fill in for us bc we are still a lottery team. He can rotate in for the kids for this season. I dont mind buying him out after next when the kids are ready for a full 82 game season and his dead cap hit is less than 1m each season for only 2 years.

We will agree to disagree. I have faith in gorton and jd. Built the Bruins who won several cups and are competing for the cup for the past 10 years and built the blues who just won the cup.

 

[Chalfdiggity3]

Ya I wouldn’t say that Kakko and Kravstov have to have “monster seasons” to help us improve. If Kakko can put up 55, and Kravstov can put up 30, we’ve added two young scorers who could potentially improve as the season goes on.

I’d say that (essentially) swapping Hayes, Zuccarello, and Pionk for Panarin, Kakko, and Trouba is a massive improvement. The team wasn’t THAT bad when Hayes and Zucc were clicking, swap them out with a top ten offensive player and a very strong 2nd overall pick and the results will likely be better. Also replacing a blackhole with someone who’s really good is nice too.

So you are expecting 85 points between the two rookies? That's a lot of pressure and expectations to put on them. I'd love to see that but I highly doubt they put those kind of points combined up in their first year. Neither have played an 82 game seasons before. Slow down on these guys. I have high Hope's for them but let's not put them in the HOF before they even lace em up for their first NHL game.

Trouba is a solid improvement but again he won't put up 50pts on this squad and I'm not sure why people think he is a defensive stalwart. Hes not shutting any top forwards down. Hes a very good scoring #2 defenseman.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

glad they skipped over the larmer trade and long unbeaten streak to give those guys airtime

There was another documentary where they focused just on the games and much more on the reg season instead of just the play offs. To me, that was much more fun. They showed the pre-season trip to London even

 

[Ola]

So you are expecting 85 points between the two rookies? That's a lot of pressure and expectations to put on them. I'd love to see that but I highly doubt they put those kind of points combined up in their first year. Neither have played an 82 game seasons before. Slow down on these guys. I have high Hope's for them but let's not put them in the HOF before they even lace em up for their first NHL game.

Trouba is a solid improvement but again he won't put up 50pts on this squad and I'm not sure why people think he is a defensive stalwart. Hes not shutting any top forwards down. Hes a very good scoring #2 defenseman.

I agree on Trouba, but I think that he is the modern type of shut down guy. You need to shut down the top guys by playing a good solid game of hockey against them, and that means that you must have Ds that can move the puck and skate. Trouba’s strength is that he has a high level game and fills up all those containers fairly well. But he is no defensive genius like you say.

I think it’s especially on the PK and last shifts of a game you could use a prototypical “shut-down D”, but I don’t know if I would want to match anyone like that against a top line 5 on 5.

 

[BBKers]

If We think Robertsson is our future shutdown Guy on the left and K Andre progresses as a future #1 LD, Skjei might be expendable (one of Rykov/Lindgren/Hajek/Reuanen/Jones/longshots in Org slotting in as 3LD) in such a case. Good problem to have being stacked like the lady in Dollywood

 

[SA16]

Why do we always have to temper expectations? Kakko scoring under 50 points would be a disappointment. 14 forwards have went 1 or 2 overall the last 10 years. Those players averaged 53 points per 82 games. However if you throw out the four guys who did not play top six minutes (Seguin 12.5/game, Patrick 13.7/game, Svechnikov 14.6/game, and surprisingly Yakupov at 14.6/game) that leaves you with 10 players who averaged 60 points/82 with Barkov being the only one under 52 points. In terms of "real points" removing any pace 7/10 scored 52+ points, McDavid 48 pts in 45 games and Hall 42 in 65. Considering Quinn's first comment was about him on a line with Zibanejad I don't think we need to worry about him being a bottom six player by design.

If we're expecting Kakko to score under 50 points, and play in a top six + PP role, we're basically expected him to be the 2nd worst 1/2 overall pick of the last 10 years to start and this is a guy they all say should be ready right away compared to others.

 

[Jim Ramsay]

When did quinn say that? I heard him say that about Panarin, but not Kakko

 

[eco's bones]

Brady Tkachuk 22 goals and 45 points in 71 games for the Senators last year--coming off a season where he scored 8 goals and 31 points in 40 games at Boston U.

I like Brady Tkachuk a lot but think about it. 4th overall pick and comparing him to Kakko? I like Kakko better so I don't see any reason why Kaapo can't match or better what Brady did in his rookie pro year.

And besides that we've already seen Kakko against NHL'er at the world championships and if not dominant he was one of Finland's best players and the Finnish team on paper was really weak and yet somehow won the thing.

So on to Trouba--great defensively?---not really but defensively he's well above the likes of Shattenkirk, DeAngelo and Pionk. He has the size, strength and ability to control the area in and around the crease for one thing. He can play in all situations and is IMO in the Ryan McDonagh range as far as skill level and value. That 'play in all situations' thing by the way is something that none of Shattenkirk, DeAngelo or Pionk have proven. So Trouba is a major upgrade on our D. He will make life much easier for our goalies.

 

[SA16]

When did quinn say that? I heard him say that about Panarin, but not Kakko

Kakko plans to help Rangers right away after being picked second in Draft

Quinn said he doesn't want to put any extra pressure on Kakko. However, he said he's been envisioning Kakko playing on the right side of center Mika Zibanejad on the Rangers' top line.
"I've looked at that without question," Quinn said. "Mika said he's going to start learning Finnish. He does speak Finnish, but he's going to brush up on his Finnish."

 

[NYSPORTS]

Anybody worried about a Toronto cap scenario in the near future?

Maybe not for a few years but all these kids will get raises, etc in a short time. It’s not like a video game where you build a star team from 19-30. Will the Rangers be in a cap mess like Toronto within 4 years?

Anybody concerned?

 

[JESSEWENEEDTOCOOK]

So you are expecting 85 points between the two rookies? That's a lot of pressure and expectations to put on them. I'd love to see that but I highly doubt they put those kind of points combined up in their first year. Neither have played an 82 game seasons before. Slow down on these guys. I have high Hope's for them but let's not put them in the HOF before they even lace em up for their first NHL game.

Trouba is a solid improvement but again he won't put up 50pts on this squad and I'm not sure why people think he is a defensive stalwart. Hes not shutting any top forwards down. Hes a very good scoring #2 defenseman.

Yes, I’m expecting ~85 points out of those two. That isn't “a lot of pressure”. You do realize that Kakko was picked 2nd overall, right? Most guys picked second put up top-6 totals in their rookie year.

Can’t believe people are so hesitant with Kakko. People acting like 55 points is some crazy expectation to have for a guy taken 2nd who has routinely been labeled as NHL ready.

 

[SA16]

Kakko should score around 55 points. If he does less it's a major disappointment. That leaves 30 for Kravtsov to hit 85 points. Chytil and Howden scored 23 each last year in 75/66 games and they are lesser prospects with less PP time. We don't think he's going to hit 30? Come on.

We don't need to be so conservative on everything so we can point back at the end of the year saying we knew it. This team won't be a playoff team? Well it certainly won't be if management/coaching has that attitude and doesn't try to put players in the best spots. Kakko won't score 55 points? Why not, considering that's that 1-2 picks usually do.

 

[NYR Viper]

My concern is not about the number of points scored by any one player, it's the lack of depth scoring that concerns me. Even a minor injury to someone like Panarin or Zibanejad and this team is going to really struggle. Especially if Gorton moves Namestnikov and Kreider before the season begins.

 

[SA16]

Additionally this is one of the most difficult teams in the league to project. There is huge variance in this teams production because of how many rookies/second year players there are that have a really wide range in what their production could be. It could be only Kakko is legit and they're a one line team with no depth. Or it could be Chytil/Andersson/Howden make big steps, Kravtsov plays at a high level, Fox is a big time rookie/DeAngelo continues to prove and the team has a lot of depth. You don't really know. It's not a team with all older guys in the bottom of the lineup who you know who they are.

 

[FIRE DRURY]

Kakko should score around 55 points. If he does less it's a major disappointment.

So if he scores 52 points it's a major disappointment?

 

[Lindberg Cheese]

I think most likely to happen will be:
Buy out Smith
Trade one of Names or Strome
RFA Approx:
Lemmy @ 1 mil
ADA @ 1.5
Buch @ 2.5
Trouba @ 7.85

This gives us about 1.25-2.5 in cap wiggle and something like:

Pan Ziba Kakko
Krieder Chytil Krat
Lias Names/Strome Buch
Lemmy Howton Fast
Open competition for 13

Skjei Trouba
Hajek ADA
Staal Fox/Shatty

Book it

 

[TheBloodyNine]

Anybody worried about a Toronto cap scenario in the near future?

Maybe not for a few years but all these kids will get raises, etc in a short time. It’s not like a video game where you build a star team from 19-30. Will the Rangers be in a cap mess like Toronto within 4 years?

Anybody concerned?

There's not a day that goes by that I don't think about Toronto as a cautionary tale that I hope we haven't painted ourselves into.

 

[Irishguy42]

So if he scores 52 points it's a major disappointment?

54.9 points is a disagrace

 

[FIRE DRURY]

54.9 points is a disagrace

He's clearly no Hughes, that's for sure.

Should have just picked 3rd and went with Byram.

Fire Grots!

 

[HatTrick Swayze]

Yes, I’m expecting ~85 points out of those two. That isn't “a lot of pressure”. You do realize that Kakko was picked 2nd overall, right? Most guys picked second put up top-6 totals in their rookie year.

Can’t believe people are so hesitant with Kakko. People acting like 55 points is some crazy expectation to have for a guy taken 2nd who has routinely been labeled as NHL ready.

Having a kid this good is uncharted territory for the fanbase. Normally I am a big pump the breaks guy but with Kakko I don’t think ~50 pts is an unreasonable expectation.

 

[mas0764]

That's a horrible mentality for building a team for the future to be a perennial cup contender. Just deal with the cap implications in the future? The buyout method is not the way. I dont want to be in cap hell bc of dead cap space which is exactly what would happen in the years when we are ready to compete for the cup. I know people say it's only a few million here and there for the next 4 years, and it saves so much for this year.

Let's be honest, the cap has not been going up as expected, there is a lot of chatter that the cap will be set after next year and I doubt it will be at more than 85m. Having 4 to 6m in dead cap space in the future is a short sighted move for a rebuilding team. We need all the cap we can get to sign our own players, and make trades like we did with the trouba deal. Having cap space is a major asset to have in a cap world.

We are not competing for the cup this year nor are we even a playoff team yet. Trade the players that dont fit our rebuild. Krieder will want an Anders Lee type deal 7years 7m aav. No thanks not for a player who disappears for long stretches in games and for the season, trade him for picks and prospects. That's 4.5m off the cap. Then trade names for a 3rd like in the vesey deal. That's another 4m off. There is our 6.5m that we need in order to sign buch, DeAngelo, and lemieux. And if it's not just have them sign the qualifying offer and see if they are worth more money. Trade shatty at the deadline if we can.

Hopefully we play well but are still in the lottery and end up with a top 5 pick and get a franchise forward. Continue to build the right way. Then if we need to we can buy players out the next season, when they cap hit is lower and only for 2 years.

But I'm sure gorton and jd know what they are doing and I trust them to build the team the right way. They did make Boston a perennial cup contender and st Louis a cup winner.

Next year will be tight, but we have no real players of importance that need big deals next year.

The year after, we free up $25 million in space due to expirings.

The year after that, there will be a new TV deal, and the cap will definitely be rising dramatically on that account.

I wouldn't worry about losing anyone we really want. The better question is, are we gonna lose out on some good deals because we have to give bridge deals instead of long term deals that would look great in 3 years?

Don't get me wrong, I'd love to be able to avoid buying out Smith, but if we can't, I'm not gonna lose sleep.... Smith's future hits are not that bad if we buy him out.

My preferred approach would be to find takers for Kreider at fair market value (like a first and prospect) and Namestnikov for peanuts (a third? A second? Whatever). But I do not know for sure if that is possible.

Kicking this small can down the road a year isn't "horrible," -- it's merely an inconvenient side effect of signing an elite player in Panarin. And again, even if we did have to lose someone like Kreider for less than market value because of this.... uh, oh well.... that's the trade off. Panarin for Kreider. That's a win for us. Don't sweat it if Kreider doesn't bring back exact value.

 

[brians1128]

Anybody worried about a Toronto cap scenario in the near future?

Maybe not for a few years but all these kids will get raises, etc in a short time. It’s not like a video game where you build a star team from 19-30. Will the Rangers be in a cap mess like Toronto within 4 years?

Anybody concerned?

No, if we are in that scenario it will bc all of our young kids hit and reached their ceilings and thats a good problem to have

 

[GAGLine]

Anybody worried about a Toronto cap scenario in the near future?

Maybe not for a few years but all these kids will get raises, etc in a short time. It’s not like a video game where you build a star team from 19-30. Will the Rangers be in a cap mess like Toronto within 4 years?

Anybody concerned?

Not concerned at all. Sure, it's possible that both Kakko and Kravtsov could earn big paydays, but it's far from a given right now. We only have 18 mil committed for 2022, when those players will need new contracts. That number will go up once Trouba gets signed, and other players will be signed between now and then that will inflate that number, but we should still have plenty of cap space. The cap could be at 90 mil or more in 2022, depending on the new TV deals.

If guys like Chytil, Fox, Andersson and DeAngelo bust out, the money could get tight, but that's not really a bad problem to have, especially if we have a strong farm system. With our defensive depth, Skjei might become expendable. In 2022, he will still have 2 years left on his contract. If we need cap, it's likely that we could trade him and replace him from within. If we need to do a Brassard/Zib type deal to save cap space, we can do it.

It's inevitable that we will have to make moves to fit under the cap, but if we can replace older, more expensive talent with younger, cheaper talent, we can keep our window open indefinitely. That's how good teams stay good year after year.

 

[NYR Viper]

There are ways to kick the can down the road for either Kakko or Kravtsov if needed and honestly, it's not a bad idea to give them 2 year deals after their ELC's expire and then extend long term from there. The player doesn't have all of the leverage when they are RFA's.

 

[SA16]

So if he scores 52 points it's a major disappointment?

There was a reason I intentionally wrote the word "around" in the sentence.