Speculation: Roster Building Thread 2019-20: Part XXIX

[haveandare]

Kreider is a first line LW no?

A $7 million contract is first line LW money no?

So you are neither getting a second line LW, nor paying for one at that price. That is why it's a challenge. If he were a second line LW, we would not be debating this point because he would not be commanding $7 million on the open market and the Rangers would've already signed him for a second line money.

And here's the funny thing, in one breath we're talking about a 50ish point player with some unique skills, who clearly isn't a ppg player, in the next I have people talking about we can never find someone like him, or that replacing him is going to be some monumental task.

The player you just described in the first part of the last paragraph, does not match the description that a handful of people are trying to sell others on in the second part of that paragraph.

I don’t really think it’s ever as simple as first line player, second line player, etc. Thats just not in line with the reality of how the league works. People play up and down, lines switch, chemistry alters things in sometimes odd ways that don’t make sense on paper. He’s a top 6 winger. He’s put out in offensive situations, he drives play, he gets pp time and he’s expected to make offense. That’s a top 6 role. I think it’s a little unrealistic to try to chop roles much finer than that.

I don’t see the issue or contradiction. He is a 50ish point player. He isn’t a ppg player. We don’t have someone to replace him. Those things are all facts. What specifically do you disagree with there?

I don’t know about “monumental”, but if we want to replace him soonish well either need to luck out and then some in the draft, we’ll need big steps from Kakko or Kravstov along with them switching sides, or we’ll need to move a very good player from another position, likely a Skjei or DeAngelo type of value, to get a surefire top 6 winger back. He’s very good, not elite, and we don’t have another player like that in his position in our organization. That’s just the reality of it.

 

[bobbop]

Kreider can play like this the rest of the year.

The Rangers are not going to make the playoffs

Ye of little faith

 

[Tawnos]

A $7 million contract is first line LW money no?

No disagreement with the rest of your post, but $7m is barely 1st line money at this point. For UFA aged players, it's more like high end 2nd line money.

$7m is a fair contract for Kreider, and I would have absolutely no problem paying him that. I just don't want to do it for more than 5 years, if even that long.

 

[RangersFan1994]

Ye of little faith

The way Shesterkin has played maybe he can get us in on the last game of the year, Flyers got in that way. why not our turn

 

[Edge]

I’m not sure what you’re trying to say? If you move Kreider, you need to replace 50+ points, which is near what you need to replace if you move Buchnevich to keep Kreider. That’s basically a wash production-wise. If you have to move Skjei to keep Kreider, that’s the production that needs to be replaced. If you end end getting another player on ELC, then even that production could possibly be replaced.

As for Kreider as opposed to Skjei/Buchnevich making the Rangers a better team, we’ll just agree to disagree.

I don't know if production is the only factor there though.

I really don't like the LD in an aftermath that involves trading Skjei. Unless I take on a salary, so that means I am not really shedding salary there.

Buch is in a similar position of bringing back a salary (or salaries) if he is moved.

So I don't think the concept of simply "moving" Skjei or Buch is entirely accurate, because the Rangers are not likely trading guys under control for salary relief. They are trading those guys to either upgrade, or get a different dynamic.

 

[Edge]

No disagreement with the rest of your post, but $7m is barely 1st line money at this point. For UFA aged players, it's more like high end 2nd line money.

$7m is a fair contract for Kreider, and I would have absolutely no problem paying him that. I just don't want to do it for more than 5 years, if even that long.

And if that's the case, based on what others are describing, then Kreider's number at $7 million might actually be on the low end. Which only compounds the issue of us hoping for something lower.

 

[JimmyG89]

In the first 25 games of the season before December Buchnevich had 19 points, 0.76 ppg.
During "no puck luck" December he played 14 game and had a total of 2 points, 0.14 ppg.
So far since the start of 2020 Buchnevich played 16 games with 12 points, 0.75 ppg.
Overall 33 points in 55 games, 0.6 ppg, at age 24 (even with December being a BIG outlier).

P.S. Compare to Kreider's age 24 production.

Pretty much this, but this is also what Buch has shown his time with the Rangers. Very hot and very cold stretches of play.

The one thing, this cold stretch was 14 games, which is considerable fewer than it has in the past. His stretches at times would be for 20+ games. There has been progress for sure. The play to spring Kreider last night, he does not make that play at the beginning of last season.

I'm seeing a lot more of those effort type plays that he was lacking. Hit to make a play. He made that move to the middle last night and got smacked right after shooting. While that's a move that could get him hurt, it did not dissuade him from making more plays where he was aggressive. It's going to open up his skill game more since he has to keep defenders more honest with the straightforward type play.

Not to mention, that video with him saying #12 about himself and #1 about Kreider and the TSN trade bait board was hilarious. He's broken from that shell he was in even as early as last season.

Instead of moving him, the Rangers should try and see what they can lock him in for this summer. Could get a nice deal for years to come being proactive in signing him. With the abundance of space coming up after next season, locking him at a rate that could be a bargain in his premium seasons could jump this team from playoff team to contender.

 

[Edge]

I don’t really think it’s ever as simple as first line player, second line player, etc. Thats just not in line with the reality of how the league works. People play up and down, lines switch, chemistry alters things in sometimes odd ways that don’t make sense on paper. He’s a top 6 winger. He’s put out in offensive situations, he drives play, he gets pp time and he’s expected to make offense. That’s a top 6 role. I think it’s a little unrealistic to try to chop roles much finer than that.

I don’t see the issue or contradiction. He is a 50ish point player. He isn’t a ppg player. We don’t have someone to replace him. Those things are all facts. What specifically do you disagree with there?

I don’t know about “monumental”, but if we want to replace him soonish well either need to luck out and then some in the draft, we’ll need big steps from Kakko or Kravstov along with them switching sides, or we’ll need to move a very good player from another position, likely a Skjei or DeAngelo type of value, to get a surefire top 6 winger back. He’s very good, not elite, and we don’t have another player like that in his position in our organization. That’s just the reality of it.

Fine, so I'll go with the paramters others have made in support of Kreider.

He's something like 16th in goals for LWs over the last (5?) years, or something along those lines. So whatever lines he plays on, with whoever, you are paying him like the 16th highest goal scoring left winger in the game --- or around that level.

Do you need to spend the extra money for that, or is the better allocation of money finding someone who maybe ranks 25th, and then using the difference in price to upgrade another area? I think there's a good argument to be made for the latter.

And as you said, Kreider is very good, but not elite. That doesn't strike me as someone we "have" to have, or that represents the only, or even the best path forward.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

The way Shesterkin has played maybe he can get us in on the last game of the year, Flyers got in that way. why not our turn

Unless they start to string together long winning streaks, they're really at the mercy of the teams ahead of them slowing down/slumping.

They have 27 games left.

Even if they were to go 17-7-3 (which is aggressive and optimistic, their post TDL schedule is brutal) Philly would have to manage a reasonable 15-10 to get in over the Rangers.

 

[Shesterkybomb]

Heard today that Carolina has one of their 2 1st available for a signed dman, I'm not saying I'm itching to deal him but would Skjei fit what they want? I feel he has been good lately but If we could get that for him and lose his salary maybe? Just spit ballin

 

[BobMarleyNYR]

Kakko's straightaway speed is OK... the fact Kreider exploded come December, not long before the TDL, won't work in his favor. He was average the first half at best...

Even still, no matter what JD said six months ago, I don't think anyone's getting traded til the draft. Power of belief, maybe sadly, in this case... Kreider's best on a team that can't shoot, a good or bad one.

 

[kovazub94]

Pretty much this, but this is also what Buch has shown his time with the Rangers. Very hot and very cold stretches of play.

The one thing, this cold stretch was 14 games, which is considerable fewer than it has in the past. His stretches at times would be for 20+ games. There has been progress for sure. The play to spring Kreider last night, he does not make that play at the beginning of last season.

I'm seeing a lot more of those effort type plays that he was lacking. Hit to make a play. He made that move to the middle last night and got smacked right after shooting. While that's a move that could get him hurt, it did not dissuade him from making more plays where he was aggressive. It's going to open up his skill game more since he has to keep defenders more honest with the straightforward type play.

Not to mention, that video with him saying #12 about himself and #1 about Kreider and the TSN trade bait board was hilarious. He's broken from that shell he was in even as early as last season.

Instead of moving him, the Rangers should try and see what they can lock him in for this summer. Could get a nice deal for years to come being proactive in signing him. With the abundance of space coming up after next season, locking him at a rate that could be a bargain in his premium seasons could jump this team from playoff team to contender.

I agree with the general sentiment but wanted to address some of the discussion points.

The first one is about cold streaks and how December (albeit shorter than previous as you noted) is indicative of his career. The reason for it is that during this cold streak statistically his generation of scoring chances was outstanding, and 2 points in this stretch can't be viewed as anything than puck luck (unless one has a bias against the Russian).

The other one is that physically Buchnevich is a lot more mature, just now starting to resemble a grown man rather than a frail stick figure he used to be. His effort seems stronger but IMHO his effort has been generally fine since the beginning of 2019 but the results "look" better.

 

[Tawnos]

Heard today that Carolina has one of their 2 1st available for a signed dman, I'm not saying I'm itching to deal him but would Skjei fit what they want? I feel he has been good lately but If we could get that for him and lose his salary maybe? Just spit ballin

I play with the idea of trading him too, but I definitely have concern about the LD with him gone. Lindgren has made some major progress and we have a lot in the pipeline. I just feel like we're a year or two too early to be trading him.

If we do need to move out salary, I'd prefer to buy out Staal or Smith or both compared to trading Skjei for futures.

 

[NYSPORTS]

I gotta be honest guys I’m exhausted by the discourse around trading Kreider at this point. The deadline needs to come already haha

It’s the same thing with Zucc last year

can’t trade the heart of the team

 

[NYSPORTS]

Kreider is a first line LW no?

A $7 million contract is first line LW money no?
.

it’s the going rate for 3rd liners within 5 years according to one Kreider fan

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

Whether or not they trade Skjei, they should be looking for an upgrade to the LHD position.

Finding one makes it easier, if not imperative to move him.

 

[BobMarleyNYR]

Kreider is a first liner 33% of the season, a 2nd liner for 34% and a third liner the other 33%. Every year. He shouldn't get first line money, no.

 

[Gardner McKay]

Whether or not they trade Skjei, they should be looking for an upgrade to the LHD position.

Finding one makes it easier, if not imperative to move him.

Considering all the hoopla I saw last night surrounding the Skjei-Trouba friendship, I really wonder if the Rangers have even had a conversation about moving him. I could be wrong but I can't think of a player that the Rangers were actively looking to move (or even considering moving) where MSG did anything like that during the broadcast.

 

[offdacrossbar]

im on the trade CK bandwagon and have been for a while.

having said that, i do believe he plays an important role here and genuinely seems to care about his teammates. you cannot discount the value of leadership for a young team ready to begin winning.

im torn.

 

[Oscar Lindberg]

Skjei occupies the 2nd pair LD spot in an ideal world. He's not the guy the team tried to sell us a couple years ago, the next McDonagh

There's no trading him unless the deal brings back another capable LD, or you're moving someone like Buchnevich is a separate deal for that player

The LD doesn't have the depth to move Skjei without an immediate replacement. Lindgren is probably the most capable of the 3 young D right now, and I think it would be a major disservice to him to thrust that role upon him when he's clearly not ready for it, and may never will be

It's a shame cause I would love to have a guy like Esa Lindell for that top LD spot, I think he'd be a good fit with Trouba or Fox

 

[kovazub94]

Fine, so I'll go with the paramters others have made in support of Kreider.

He's something like 16th in goals for LWs over the last (5?) years, or something along those lines. So whatever lines he plays on, with whoever, you are paying him like the 16th highest goal scoring left winger in the game --- or around that level.

Do you need to spend the extra money for that, or is the better allocation of money finding someone who maybe ranks 25th, and then using the difference in price to upgrade another area? I think there's a good argument to be made for the latter.

And as you said, Kreider is very good, but not elite. That doesn't strike me as someone we "have" to have, or that represents the only, or even the best path forward.

To build a bit on your point - there's a bit of analogy from a similar decision process that Isles went through last summer. They were ready to let Anders Lee go during their pursuit of Panarin. They didn't get Panarin and turned around on giving 1LW money to Lee. The Rangers signed Panarin...

 

[Edge]

im on the trade CK bandwagon and have been for a while.

having said that, i do believe he plays an important role here and genuinely seems to care about his teammates. you cannot discount the value of leadership for a young team ready to begin winning.

im torn.

I posted this in the Kreider thread, but I know the two audiences don't necessarily overlap:

Let's do an informal poll of everyone and see where people are at.

We all know what he brings, his strengths, flaws, usage, etc. etc. We also know what we want him to sign for. At the end of the day, let's put all of that on the shelf.

The offer for Kreider is not 6x5, or 6x6, or 6x7. He doesn't want that.

The offer is $6.75-$7M for 7 years, with a NMC. That's what his camp wants.

Do you sign the deal, yes or no? (Because at the end of the day, that's what this debate is about --- how much are you willing to pay).

 

[Oscar Lindberg]

To build a bit on your point - there's a bit of analogy from a similar decision process that Isles went through last summer. They were ready to let Anders Lee go during their pursuit of Panarin. They didn't get Panarin and turned around on giving 1LW money to Lee. The Rangers signed Panarin...

Off topic slightly, but I'd be embarrassed if I was Anders Lee. The Islanders literally told you to get lost after all you've done for them, and when they're spurned by the guy they really wanted, they come crawling back to you

Like have some self respect dude

 

[pld459666]

Spoiler....he won't

I know.

It's more for the folks that think making the playoffs is possible

 

[pld459666]

Ye of little faith

For what has to happen for the Rangers to make the playoffs, yeah, not little faith.

NO FAITH