Roster Building/Team Building/Future Trade/Drafting thread.

[HockeyVirus]

Kinda funny how the main boards roast Matthews like he is a worthless cap dump but are telling Leaf fans how screwed they are to lose Tavares and Marner (when Matthews is better than both).

"How will they replace them" and all that. Just endless trolling Leaf fans everytime I click there

 

[Americanadian]

I mean, based on Win% and expenditure, surely the Leafs were the favourite?

https://www.spotrac.com/nhl/toronto-maple-leafs/cap/_/year/2019

https://www.spotrac.com/nhl/columbus-blue-jackets/cap/_/year/2019

The Leafs were the betting favorite at the time. I don’t know why this is coming back up.

 

[notbias]

I mean, based on Win% and expenditure, surely the Leafs were the favourite?

https://www.spotrac.com/nhl/toronto-maple-leafs/cap/_/year/2019

https://www.spotrac.com/nhl/columbus-blue-jackets/cap/_/year/2019

Point percentage is identical.

I'd call it even personally, but I'd be fine saying slightly favored.

The Leafs were the betting favorite at the time. I don’t know why this is coming back up.

Betting favorites is not just about who is expected to win.

 

[WTFMAN99]

The Leafs were the betting favorite at the time. I don’t know why this is coming back up.

They tried to argue that Montreal and Columbus were favorites against the Leafs and none of our playoff losses have ever been our fault.

 

[Americanadian]

Betting favorites is not just about who is expected to win.

They are when they open.

 

[notbias]

They are when they open.

There are absolutely no other variables?

I don't bet, so I wouldn't know for sure, I've never looked into it enough, but from everything I've heard or read, that is not the case.

If that is the case, what were the lines with all major sports betting sites? Curious to see if they were similar across the board.

 

[Rare Jewel]

The Leafs were the betting favorite at the time. I don’t know why this is coming back up.

Boredom, need a trade to happen.


But, yeah, the idea that the Leafs are underdogs in all their series is slightly rose-tinted. Even in both of the TB series, they had home ice advantage.

 

[Americanadian]

There are absolutely no other variables?

I don't bet, so I wouldn't know for sure, I've never looked into it enough, but from everything I've heard or read, that is not the case.

If that is the case, what were the lines with all major sports betting sites? Curious to see if they were similar across the board.

I forgot to write them down.

 

[notbias]

I forgot to write them down.

Well, the argument kind of falls flat then, doesn't it?

Not to mention, I think there is more to opening odds than just who the bookie is favouring.

 

[Americanadian]

Well, the argument kind of falls flat then, doesn't it?

It’s not an argument. It’s a fact.

 

[notbias]

It’s not an argument. It’s a fact.

Well, based on 5 minutes of research plus years of being told otherwise, I will disagree.

But even if I agreed, it'd be the opinion of the bookies, not much else.

 

[Americanadian]

Well, based on 5 minutes of research plus years of being told otherwise, I will disagree.

What did you find in your 5 minutes of research?

But even if I agreed, it'd be the opinion of the bookies, not much else.

True - Vegas books are just vibes based, historically no math involved. The town was built on vibes.

 

[Kurtz]

They are when they open.

Not exactly true - the object of betting lines is to try to split the public money so the bookie is protected and earns a vig on either outcome. Bookies know that in a vacuum, a big market team will attract more bets than smallmarket, so even if their projections put an outcome at 50/50, they'll make the big market a slight favourite to attract more action on the underdog. Then the lines adjust based on action.

Having said that, I expect the Leafs were clear betting favourites vs Habs, Columbus and Ottawa, and likely underdogs in our matchups against Florida and Tampa, with Boston probably close to a push.

 

[notbias]

What did you find in your 5 minutes of research?

That they use much more than just who they think will win, such as who is likely to receive more bets, because their goal is to make money, not predict the winner.

True - Vegas books are just vibes based, historically no math involved. The town was built on vibes.

What math is involved in predicting a winner?

Seems like every NHL team should just use that to build their teams... the original advanced stats.

 

[Americanadian]

Not exactly true - the object of betting lines is to try to split the public money so the bookie is protected and earns a vig on either outcome. Bookies know that in a vacuum, a big market team will attract more bets than smallmarket, so even if their projections put an outcome at 50/50, they'll make the big market a slight favourite to attract more action on the underdog. Then the lines adjust based on action.

Having said that, I expect the Leafs were clear betting favourites vs Habs, Columbus and Ottawa, and likely underdogs in our matchups against Florida and Tampa, with Boston probably close to a push.

A book is not going to open with a huge edge to protect themselves for a Toronto Columbus play in series. The amount of money bet on that is inconsequential. They would adjust that if it was bet too heavily one direction after it opens but if they open with a massive edge they’d open themselves up to a whale bettor.

 

[Kurtz]

A book is not going to open with a huge edge to protect themselves for a Toronto Columbus play in series. The amount of money bet on that is inconsequential. They would adjust that if it was bet too heavily one direction after it opens but if they open with a massive edge they’d open themselves up to a whale bettor.

Correct - that's why I said "slight favourite" rather than a huge edge.

Note that jumping on early lines before odds adjust is exactly what the professional bettors do due to edges like this. It's also the number 1 thing that will put them on a banned list, as bookies monitor this behavious to spot the pros.

 

[Americanadian]

That they use much more than just who they think will win, such as who is likely to receive more bets, because their goal is to make money, not predict the winner.

Sorry I didn’t mean this. I thought you were arguing that the actual betting lines favored Columbus.

What math is involved in predicting a winner?

Seems like every NHL team should just use that to build their teams... the original advanced stats.

I would bet they’re using similar data.

 

[Americanadian]

Correct - that's why I said "slight favourite" rather than a huge edge.

Note that jumping on early lines before odds adjust is exactly what the professional bettors do due to edges like this. It's also the number 1 thing that will put them on a banned list, as bookies monitor this behavious to spot the pros.

Do you think the books built in an edge to protect themselves from heavy bets on the Leafs in the 2020 play in series?

Or do you think the Leafs were favorites?

 

[Leaffan1991]

Can Marner just help us already and let us trade his rights for Hertl?!

 

[Ianturnedbull]

Out: JT, MM
In: Marchand Hertl, Karlsson

?

Is this real?

 

[Kurtz]

Do you think the books built in an edge to protect themselves from heavy bets on the Leafs in the 2020 play in series?

Or do you think the Leafs were favorites?

Probably a bit of both tbh.

 

[weems]

I think it was close to a pick-em.

Even though the thought around here pre series was this was a good matchup for us, we underrated CLB and alot of sharp money was on them.

 

[SprDaVE]

Out: JT, MM
In: Marchand Hertl, Karlsson

?

Is this real?

No

 

[WTFMAN99]

I think it was close to a pick-em.

Even though the thought around here pre series was this was a good matchup for us, we underrated CLB and alot of sharp money was on them.

I mean, they'd started to show they were a group that struggled in the playoffs

2 playoff series wins, what a wasted decade.

 

[The Shadow]

Did you guys read that article saying Marner felt disrespected because Matthews was named captain and not him ?