Speculation: Roster Building Frenzy Part XX

[Taluss]

Some people here would have you believe eichel struggled to find a Twitter profile picture that showed his actual head attached to his neck. So proud of him for pulling it off on his new account...

Photoshop is pretty crazy these days. Didn’t know he had those skills

 

[duhmetreE]

I really think Chytil might end up better than him if we give him those middle 6 minutes.

It doesn't matter who's better. It adds depth down the middle. Our top9 is all but set

 

[McRanger92]

Another teammate of them was Claude Lemieux. Brendan wanted a trade and we accommodated that request very smoothly and gave him to LAK and Blake pretty cheap. Don’t think Blake is a hard guy to make deals with. More of a pragmatic type.

LAK has all those center prospects. Hopefully Blake and Drury is communicating a lot.

Not really interested in trading for another team's prospects and expecting them to have big roles here immediately. Theres also probably a reason why LA went out and got Danault, clearly they werent in love with their center depth

 

[smoneil]

I don't disagree with you but its not like he was Nathan Mackinnon tearing up the Q or something like that, he's been a 'really good' player all his life, I'm not expecting that to change much because he gets more ice time, in every other league he's played in he's gotten plenty of ice time. Finally, I like Fil as a prospect, but i think people are expecting more from him based on what? No diss on him because its the fan based that created this, imo he's the perfect young 3rd line c for this team and thats great, its when we all say he should be top 6 thats the problem because imo we have an organizational problem if he's a top 6 center and we're planning on competing for the cup.

He never played in the CHL, but I'm fairly certain he would have done quite well there (not as good as MacKinnon because he's not a MacKinnon-level player). He was playing in a men's league as a 16/17 year old. He was one of the youngest (was he THE youngest?) players in AHL history, and put up 31 points in 46 games (.67 ppg) as an 18 year old. As a 20 year old, in his brief stint in the AHL, he was a PPG (Quinton Byfield, as a comparison, played in the AHL as an 18 year old this past season. He put up 20 points in 32 games played for a .63 ppg).

For most of the last three years, Chytil's been developing at the NHL level in limited minutes. Since he's only getting limited minutes, it's important to look at progression. Over the last three seasons, he's gone from .31 ppg to .38 ppg to .52 ppg. In that span, he's never averaged over 15 minutes per game, had scant time on the PP, and particularly this past season, all of his production was even strength. Over the last three seasons, his +/- has gone from -22 to -7 to +9. His face-off percentage increased by about 5% this past season as well.

Basically, in very limited opportunities, he's been showing regular and sizable progression in each of the last three years. Had he been playing in the CHL as a 16-20 year old, it's likely he would have dominated. Had he been left in the AHL to develop, he'd almost certainly be well over a ppg player down there based on his previous stints as a child. In other words, if he were still "new"--left to tear apart lesser leagues rather than developing with the main team--I honestly think we'd be talking about him the way people talk about guys like Zegras. There's no indication that he's going to stop developing (3 years of consistent growth, and most NHL players don't peak at 21--most have barely started to ascend. Sorry Del Zotto).

There are fancy stats that show all of this in the game data as well, and I think it's also verified by the eye test. He was using his teammates much more effectively this season. Before this year, he'd look to shoot as his first, second, and third option. This season was the first one where he had significantly more assists than goals, and the vast majority (it may be all of them--I don't recall off the top of my head) of those assists were primary.

That, in a nutshell is why a lot of us are expecting more from Chytil and see him as more than just a 3rd line center.

Edited to add--it's also important to remember just how young Chytil still is. He's all of three months older that Kravtsov.

 

[NYblades]

I thought Miller did an admirable job but ultimately don't think he was ready yet..

Agreed he was probably rushed in, and, looked fatigued toward the end of season. Nonetheless, a year in the NHL should help his development as he also gets physically stronger.

 

[smoneil]

I have no interest in helping Buffalo move Eichel.

If we decide that we're out, I'd rather help the Rangers than spite Buffalo.

 

[smoneil]

I really think Chytil might end up better than him if we give him those middle 6 minutes.

So do I, but I'm not opposed to Dvorak depending on the cost. He adds a dimension that neither Chytil nor Zib have in that he's a good defensive player and excellent at the dot. He's also a much better option to play 3C than Strome (if, as I think, Chytil moves into that 2nd line role). The key is the cost, because I'm also excited to see what Barron can do with an opportunity.

 

[Shesterkybomb]

"in every other league"? at 18 he was in the AHL and nearly a point per game. When he was in the u18 WJC 5 points in 5 games for a bad czech team.
The only league hasn't been a point per game guy, has been the NHL where he's been given short minutes, and even then his point totals have basically stayed the same for each season EXCEPT his game count has gone down by 20 each time.
18-19 22 points in 75 games
19-20 22 points in 60 games
20-21 23 points in 42 games.

His scoring rate keeps going up. This isn't a player on the decline or not ascending. This is a player who should be given time and has earned it.

You basically described a very good player, not a dominant player but a very good player. The problem is that people get all defensive about him, its alright if he's not a star player or top 6, he isn't getting paid like one or even ranked as one before he was drafted. I liked the pick then and i still like it but he hasn't even in the slightest dominated any league he played in since 17 ( I have no idea what his pre 17 yo play was like). Everyone thinks giving him top 6 mins is gonna change how he plays or what he is as a player, it might alter his points a bit but sometimes being sheltered on the 3rd line has its benefits too because you don't have to play against the Hedmans or Bergeron's of the league. Not down on him at all, i just think the fan base has unrealistic expectations for him. If he exceeds my expectations ill be ecstatic, if he is a 3rd liner on this team in 4 years ill still be happy.

 

[Shesterkybomb]

He never played in the CHL, but I'm fairly certain he would have done quite well there (not as good as MacKinnon because he's not a MacKinnon-level player). He was playing in a men's league as a 16/17 year old. He was one of the youngest (was he THE youngest?) players in AHL history, and put up 31 points in 46 games (.67 ppg) as an 18 year old. As a 20 year old, in his brief stint in the AHL, he was a PPG (Quinton Byfield, as a comparison, played in the AHL as an 18 year old this past season. He put up 20 points in 32 games played for a .63 ppg).

For most of the last three years, Chytil's been developing at the NHL level in limited minutes. Since he's only getting limited minutes, it's important to look at progression. Over the last three seasons, he's gone from .31 ppg to .38 ppg to .52 ppg. In that span, he's never averaged over 15 minutes per game, had scant time on the PP, and particularly this past season, all of his production was even strength. Over the last three seasons, his +/- has gone from -22 to -7 to +9. His face-off percentage increased by about 5% this past season as well.

Basically, in very limited opportunities, he's been showing regular and sizable progression in each of the last three years. Had he been playing in the CHL as a 16-20 year old, it's likely he would have dominated. Had he been left in the AHL to develop, he'd almost certainly be well over a ppg player down there based on his previous stints as a child. In other words, if he were still "new"--left to tear apart lesser leagues rather than developing with the main team--I honestly think we'd be talking about him the way people talk about guys like Zegras. There's no indication that he's going to stop developing (3 years of consistent growth, and most NHL players don't peak at 21--most have barely started to ascend. Sorry Del Zotto).

There are fancy stats that show all of this in the game data as well, and I think it's also verified by the eye test. He was using his teammates much more effectively this season. Before this year, he'd look to shoot as his first, second, and third option. This season was the first one where he had significantly more assists than goals, and the vast majority (it may be all of them--I don't recall off the top of my head) of those assists were primary.

That, in a nutshell is why a lot of us are expecting more from Chytil and see him as more than just a 3rd line center.

Edited to add--it's also important to remember just how young Chytil still is. He's all of three months older that Kravtsov.

I think our team over the years with top 6 players like Zuc, hayes etc has lowered the bar to what we expect in our top 6. Our best year in recent memory had Hayes and Zuc on the 3rd line a lot of the time. Its not a knock on either of those guys because they are also very good players but what I'm saying is that for this team to be a cup team it won't happen if we accept that Chytil is good enough to be top 6. If we are a cup team we need 2 centers better than Fil on this roster imo. I realize he's young but i seriously don't see him as a player that has point a game nhl potential or a shut down guy like Danault. I see him just at or below the Zuc/Hayes category.

 

[jay from jersey]

I dont think you can close the book on chytil. He's 21 years old, he's never gotten consistent ice time, and hasn't really played in a good system previously. Those things can really change a players career trajectory.

That’s the big rub. It’s been 5 years and he’s showed improvement. It’s getting to the point where your going to have to ride him for heavy minutes and see what you have, or move on with the decision to upgrade the position.
It looked like that was the plan last season. Prior to the wrist injury that’s what they were doing and it looked like chytil was stepping up to the plate. When he came back they put the brakes back on the experiment.

 

[Levitate]

I think our team over the years with top 6 players like Zuc, hayes etc has lowered the bar to what we expect in our top 6. Our best year in recent memory had Hayes and Zuc on the 3rd line a lot of the time. Its not a knock on either of those guys because they are also very good players but what I'm saying is that for this team to be a cup team it won't happen if we accept that Chytil is good enough to be top 6. If we are a cup team we need 2 centers better than Fil on this roster imo. I realize he's young but i seriously don't see him as a player that has point a game nhl potential. I see him just at or below the Zuc/Hayes category.

Hayes and Zucc are very good top six guys...definitely more second line but like, cmon, I think the expectations of third liners some people have is ridiculous

e: "top six" guys don't score at a point per game these days. Those are your stop line star players, the good top six "support" guys score more like Zucc and Hayes do

 

[IDvsEGO]

That’s the big rub. It’s been 5 years and he’s showed improvement. It’s getting to the point where your going to have to ride him for heavy minutes and see what you have, or move on with the decision to upgrade the position.
It looked like that was the plan last season. Prior to the wrist injury that’s what they were doing and it looked like chytil was stepping up to the plate. When he came back they put the brakes back on the experiment

Even pre injury he wasn’t getting that top minutes I’d have expected from his impressive performance.

 

[Shesterkybomb]

Hayes and Zucc are very good top six guys...definitely more second line but like, cmon, I think the expectations of third liners some people have is ridiculous

e: "top six" guys don't score at a point per game these days. Those are your stop line star players, the good top six "support" guys score more like Zucc and Hayes do

Cup teams have better players in their top 6 thats the point, its why we did the rebuild, our top 6 was mediocre, it was good enough to make playoffs but not good enough to win.

 

[THE BIG WHISTLE]

Ive been saying this kids package is unique to our organization. I fully believe he is the preferred player to keep here over nils long term.

And before we start the keep both stuff, we aren't keeping both long term if fox and trouba are here. Schneider will be nhl ready before troubas ntc opens up.

Easy Pierre

 

[Synergy27]

I think our team over the years with top 6 players like Zuc, hayes etc has lowered the bar to what we expect in our top 6. Our best year in recent memory had Hayes and Zuc on the 3rd line a lot of the time. Its not a knock on either of those guys because they are also very good players but what I'm saying is that for this team to be a cup team it won't happen if we accept that Chytil is good enough to be top 6. If we are a cup team we need 2 centers better than Fil on this roster imo. I realize he's young but i seriously don't see him as a player that has point a game nhl potential or a shut down guy like Danault. I see him just at or below the Zuc/Hayes category.

I think you’re very clearly one of those people that doesn’t understand that there are, by definition, now 96 first line players in the league. 192 top 6 players at any given time. Not every “top 6” player is a superstar.

All of those guys who we relied on previously were absolutely legitimate top 6 players. We didn’t have any real superstars to push them over the top. Mika and Panarin certainly are that. Hopefully one or more of Laf, Kakko or Kravtsov become that.

Chytil will be better than Hayes, but even if he is exactly Hayes, that is perfectly adequate for a 2C.

 

[smoneil]

I think our team over the years with top 6 players like Zuc, hayes etc has lowered the bar to what we expect in our top 6. Our best year in recent memory had Hayes and Zuc on the 3rd line a lot of the time. Its not a knock on either of those guys because they are also very good players but what I'm saying is that for this team to be a cup team it won't happen if we accept that Chytil is good enough to be top 6. If we are a cup team we need 2 centers better than Fil on this roster imo. I realize he's young but i seriously don't see him as a player that has point a game nhl potential or a shut down guy like Danault. I see him just at or below the Zuc/Hayes category.

The problem with those teams that you mention was that Stepan/Zuc/Hayes were our top talents. That's not the case here. Panarin/Laf/Zib/Kakko are set to be our top talents. You keep mentioning that he's never dominated a league yet, but he's literally played in men's leagues for his whole career. Few players dominate the NHL at the ages of 18-21. He's never played a full season of hockey against just his own age group. So critiquing him for not dominating people who were (in some cases) twice his age and had full grown bodies seems a bit odd.

I do think Chytil has the chance to catch fire in and flirt with a ppg season or two in his career, but he doesn't need to be. Most teams don't have PPG centers on line 1 to say nothing of both top six lines. Most seasons, there are ~20 guys who are at a ppg, and not all of them are centers.

Chytil, getting a shade over 13 minutes per game with no power play time, was scoring at a pace of 43 points over an 82 game season. Improve the linemates? Add regular PP2 time? Get his TOI/G up to ~18 minutes (which would be five minutes more per game than last year). Factor in a bit more growth, as he's shown in three successive seasons? I'd be shocked if he didn't at least get up into the 55-60 point range. And that is absolutely fine for a cost-controlled 2nd line center, with more room to continue growing at that. That would basically put him in the same category as Stepan, but he'd be our 2nd line guy (while Step was our first liner).

I do think you had a point that sheltered minutes don't always translate given larger opportunity, but I again would look to the progression. 19 year old Chytil would have died on the vine if he'd been thrown up to the 2nd line. His defense wasn't there yet, his vision wasn't there yet, and he still had a bit too much "dipsy-doodle" in his game re: excess stick-handling. He improved on a lot of those areas as a 20 year old, but it was really this past season that showed he was ready for more.

 

[Blais to Win]

If fc was going to center the 2c this year than strome would've already been dealt and another 3c would be here. They are obviously holding strome to get the 2c here again unless they find a better option. That indicates that the org doesn't view fc as a better option for the 2c role than strome. People need to let that reality sink in bc it is plainly obvious looking at the way the org has handled the last 3-4ish months.

"Obviously". Not at all. This is Strome's last contract year. They may expect him to be replaced by an improving Chytil by February and be thinking of where to send him later in the season. They may be keeping him as insurance in case Chytil regresses. Or, they may like the idea of three scoring lines.

You've jumped to conclusions here.

 

[IDvsEGO]

"Obviously". Not at all. This is Strome's last contract year. They may expect him to be replaced by an improving Chytil by February and be thinking of where to send him later in the season. They may be keeping him as insurance in case Chytil regresses. Or, they may like the idea of three scoring lines.

You've jumped to conclusions here.

Based on roster composition at the moment we're going to have 2 scoring lines.

 

[Blais to Win]

Based on roster composition at the moment we're going to have 2 scoring lines.

We have our ex-1st line LW playing on our 3rd line with a guy we feel could be our 2nd line center. That's probably enough to call it a scoring line, but add one of the two K-named RW options and that would make it a definite scoring line.

Also some folks think Blais could have some scoring potential and could be destined for Panarin's line, anyway.

 

[IDvsEGO]

We have our ex-1st line LW playing on our 3rd line with a guy we feel could be our 2nd line center. That's probably enough to call it a scoring line, but add one of the two K-named RW options and that would make it a definite scoring line.

Also some folks think Blais could have some scoring potential and could be destined for Panarin's line, anyway.

I dont think chytil is our 3c. Kreider on that third line doesnt make it a scoring line, he's got the skillset to play that grind role but add the occassional goal.

 

[bbny]

Huh, I think he's one of the most clutch players on the team. He's scored 2 game tying goals with like 10 seconds left before. No one else on the team has one.

LMAO @ the Georgiev OT goal allowed against the Avs. Forgot about that. Hope DeAngelo razzed him pretty good on that one back then too.

 

[Avery16]

Also some folks think Blais could have some scoring potential and could be destined for Panarin's line, anyway.

They are wrong.

I think some posters lofty expectations from Blais are based on him being part of the return for Buch.

Blais was on a deep team, but played in a system that favored forecheckers. He had opportunity in St. Louis. I think he made the most of it there, but he was still sat at times for tweeners, AHLers and vets on their way out like MacEachern, Joshua, de la Rose, Brouwer and Clifford. All of those are retired (Brouwer), retiring (Clifford), 13F (MacEachern) will be up and down from the AHL (Joshua), or are in Europe (de la Rose). Blais didn’t win the job from that pack.

He’s got an opportunity here too. I imagine he will make the most of it once again. I doubt he’ll be a mainstay in the top six. I doubt he’ll hit 10G or 30Pts.

The 2nd rounder was the main piece of the Buch return. Everyone needs to let that sink in, because Blais isn’t changing that.

 

[LannyMcdonald]

Regarding Chytil, he is what he is, and he's never gonna be a star player, he'll alwaya be a good player but he reminds me of our past teams, zuccarello, hayes, Stepan types who were always good for the most part, 60 pt players but you were never getting over the hump with them as key players. There was a time that was good enough for us, the bar has been raised and it will depend on whats around him whether he will be here long term. I like him as a 3c on a cup team but i dont think you are good enough if he's your 2c, atleast from what he has shown from a young age in the nhl and before that. He hasn't really been a star anywhere since he popped up on our radar so expecting him to become one isn't realistic imo.

You're talking about a team that made it to the SCF final. Just saying.

 

[Shesterkybomb]

You're talking about a team that made it to the SCF final. Just saying.

With Hayes and Zuc on our 3rd line for the most part is the point. If we are a cup team Chytil and kreider are on our 3rd line.

 

[Shesterkybomb]

I think you’re very clearly one of those people that doesn’t understand that there are, by definition, now 96 first line players in the league. 192 top 6 players at any given time. Not every “top 6” player is a superstar.

All of those guys who we relied on previously were absolutely legitimate top 6 players. We didn’t have any real superstars to push them over the top. Mika and Panarin certainly are that. Hopefully one or more of Laf, Kakko or Kravtsov become that.

Chytil will be better than Hayes, but even if he is exactly Hayes, that is perfectly adequate for a 2C.

Only one of those teams win the cup each year and they have better options than Chytil in the top 6. Its perfectly adequate yes, to win a cup....not a chance. People forget why we did the rebuild, the mediocre players we had in the top 6 yielded mediocre results. chytil if he ever gets to Hayes level would be a boom, i don't see it yet, he is missing a lot to his game for that to be true, there is still the thought that he might not even be a center in the nhl let alone a top 6 one. As i said, i like the player, i like the pick then and now but he's a 3c on a cup team.