No, you said his ceiling was HOF. That's what EK65's ceiling was. You made a crazy assertion and I told you why it was crazy.
Prospect Info: Rookie camp and Rookie Tournament 9/17-20
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Gecklund
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Gecklund
Registered User
Ryan Merkley’s Time Is Nigh
2018 Draft Profile: Ryan Merkley
2018 NHL Draft Prospect Profile: Ryan Merkley
Here are three articles that say you are wrong and say the exact same thing I said.
jarr92
Registered User
- May 7, 2013
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How do you define "ceiling" versus "potential"? If I said someone reached their potential, would it not be the same as me saying they reached their ceiling? It feels like arguing over semantics.
Also, while Merkley's potential was sky high as a boom/bust pick for the Sharks his stock has seems to have fallen a bit since then.
I vaguely recall being glad that the Sharks finally drafted someone with size. And that someday they would have a 4th line that can throw some weight around. Maybe that day is nearing. Though, I felt the same way with the 2014 draft . . . Sometimes, I wish they'd dump all the stat scouting and just pick a bunch of players over 6'3'', over 210, and can decently skate.
Gecklund
Registered User
A players ceiling is what he would max out at if things went right. Merkley has the skill to be absolutely elite. If he can figure out the effort/defense part, he should be elite. His potential is realistically what he ends up as. I highly doubt he figures it out to be absolutely elite but I think he could be a Jason Demers in his prime/Dan Boyle on the decline level player. Basically a second pair offensive D. If he reaches his ceiling he’s a number 1 D. Doubt that happens though.
themelkman
Always Delivers
ceiling and potential are subjective terms that mean nothing objectively. According to experts, Merkleys vision and passing ability had a chance at being as good as a player like EK65, but the odds to reach that are totally un-quantifiable to anyone really. We can only guess and judge for ourselves
Ok I just went thru all 3. Read them all when originally published too. Exactly none say his ceiling is Erik Karlsson. Not a one. Understand what you're saying when you assert something like that. EK65 was the best D-man in the NHL for a period and is a sure fire HOFer. Merkley will never be that.
Both Demers and Boyle are very competitive even in their own zone. Especially Boyle. Merkley does not play with any intensity what so ever. The fact he looked moderately interested in these recent few games is a huge step up from last season. Like I've been saying, you didn't watch him. I get you like him and are optimistic. I don't want to shit on that but saying his ceiling is EK65 isn't supported by anything any legit analyst has said. And considering his development path, even being in that type of conversation is way past its expiration. At this point, him making the NHL and playing meaning full minutes is going to be a huge win for the organization. At least he made some progress this off season.
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And despite your evaluation of Merkley (which I generally agree with), you think he has some value in a trade for Eichel (based on your posts where you include him in hypothetical trades for Eichel). Look, I hope Merkley pulls it together and posts a dominant offensive season with the 'Cuda this year. If so, he will have some trade value. Right now, he has none.
I assume this was directed at me...? Yeah I think Merkley has some value especially if he continues to show progress this season. It sounded like scouts were pretty down on his performance last season which is exactly what I saw. Lot's of scouts at that rookie tourney in AZ though so now they saw a guy who was definitely better than what he showed last season. Just because I don't think he's the 2nd coming of EK65 doesn't mean I don't think he has value as a prospect. He certainly didn't have much last season but I could see him continuing to rehabilitate his value this season. He won't be the corner stone in an Eichel trade but he could be a nice piece to add to maybe save other prospects. Buffalo has all the time in the world to develop him. Him and Power as a D pair in a few years? Could be enticing for them.
Yes, I was talking to you. I agree with your valuation of Merkley and how he has played since being drafted. Three years ago, probably half the teams in the NHL had him on their Do Not Draft lists. Since then, he has shown nothing to change those evaluations. Consequently, he has no trade value; no team would give up value for him. If he can post a dominant offensive season in the AHL, he would rise in value. Until then, it is best the Sharks hold onto him and hope he can figure it out. I think they should simply because he has shown flashes of rare talent.
do you not know how to reply to comments?
You don't know that half the teams wouldn't have drafted him. Look what the Habs just did in the 1st round. Talent or even potential talent always wins out in pro sports. He's still a 1st round pick with "potential" and if the Sharks tried to trade him they would get decent value back especially now. What is that value? I honestly don't know. Neither do you because neither of us are pro scouts working for a team and privy to their internal evaluations of the kid. His most optimistic upside IMO at this point is 2nd pair, defensive liability but #1 PPQB. Basically kinda like a poor mans Sandis Ozolinsh. I think Merkley likely has better playmaking vision once he's figured his game out. Frankly if it was my organization I would get it over with and move him to wing. Let him play shitty D as a forward where it's not so detrimental and pile up 40-50 assists a season.
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jMoneyBrah
Registered User
Out of curiosity, has there been any examples of offensive minded D prospects moving to forward in the last 10ish years? To this layman, if Merkley is unable to form himself into a serviceable defender, it would feel like a waste to not at least see if his offensive toolset can’t work as a forward.
But, I can’t recall any players of similar toolsets to Merkley attempting that transition so late in their career. To be clear, I’m not counting Burns who was drafted as a forward, converted to a defender, and then deployed as a forward for a small portion of his career. Also Burns is a completely different physical specimen than Merkley. Is it completely outlandish to think moving to forward might be a worthwhile experiment with Merkley?
I was kinda half joking. IMO the harder transition is forward to D. I doubt they would do that but who knows how he turns out. Let's hope it's not a necessary consideration.
jMoneyBrah
Registered User
Yeah. Only half serious on my end, he’s still got some rope to continue to develop. Hopefully he has a great season with the Baraccuda, and he continues to improve the effort and defensive positioning.
Again, what has Merkley shown in the three years since being drafted to change anyone's doubts about his defense and attitude? There are reasons why a player with rare offensive talents fell to the Sharks at #21 in the 2018 draft. Yes, it only takes one other team that thinks they can unlock his talent, but you cannot count on the team you want to trade with to be that team.
On evaluations of Merkley during his draft year: "Ryan Merkley was the most polarizing player of the first round, hands down. While he was the first-overall pick of the 2016 OHL Draft and has put up 122 points in 125 games with the Guelph Storm, he was reportedly on a lot of teams’ do-not-draft lists. A first-round — and probably top 10 — talent in a vacuum, Merkley is a high-risk, high-reward prospect who wasn’t even a top-31 pick on draft guru Sam Cosentino’s mock." Why Ryan Merkley was the most interesting first-round NHL Draft pick - Sportsnet.ca
Now I hope Merkley does develop into the player he could be, and he should be given every chance. The Sharks desperately need high level young talent.
On evaluations of Merkley during his draft year: "Ryan Merkley was the most polarizing player of the first round, hands down. While he was the first-overall pick of the 2016 OHL Draft and has put up 122 points in 125 games with the Guelph Storm, he was reportedly on a lot of teams’ do-not-draft lists. A first-round — and probably top 10 — talent in a vacuum, Merkley is a high-risk, high-reward prospect who wasn’t even a top-31 pick on draft guru Sam Cosentino’s mock." Why Ryan Merkley was the most interesting first-round NHL Draft pick - Sportsnet.ca
Now I hope Merkley does develop into the player he could be, and he should be given every chance. The Sharks desperately need high level young talent.
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