Our defense is absolutely not subpar. Our defense isn't top 5, but it's still top 10...Man, people love to dog on the Blues as if this core group of players didn't rise from rock-bottom and win a cup in the same season.
In a conversation about the defense, the bolded simply isn't true/relevant. The core of the defense has turned over since the Cup run. The D for the Cup run was (in order of playoff TOI) Petro, Parayko, Bouw, Eddy, Dunn, Gunnar and Bortz. We relied heavily on that three headed monster up top, giving each of them 600+ minutes while they next highest-used D man saw 363 minutes. Just 2 of our current D men were here for the 2019 Cup run and one of them was the least-used member of the group. A third of the D core remains and a quarter of the support group remains. The D core absolutely can't rely on 2019 as a proof of concept that they are battle tested. I get that the bolded comment was a general statement about the overall negativity toward our team, but I do think that it is an important distinction when the direct criticism is the blueline.
I'm not worried about ROR, Tarasenko, Perron, Schenn, and Sunny bringing it in the playoffs like they did in 2019. I have concerns about Schenn and his contract moving forward, but I didn't think we got his A game in 2019 either (I don't think there is much of a case to make that he was one of our 5 most important forwards and I had him as 6th or 7th). I'm not worried about Thomas and Barby bringing more this year than they brought in 2019. I feel good that Thomas, Kyrou, Buch, Saad, Barbie, and Bozak can contribute as much or more than we got out of Schwartz, Bozak, Thomas, Maroon, Steen and Sanford. I think the general consensus here is that the forward group is better than the 2019 group and has enough guys who were here in 2019 to know exactly how to translate their talent to playoff production.
The concern is the defense and maybe Binner (depending on who you ask). The fact that the forward core remains intact doesn't do anything to alleviate those concerns. It is a new group and the core of it is incredibly different stylistically than the 2019 group. We can't just plug and play our current pieces into the roles/strategies that worked in 2019. We haven't seen anything to suggest that this group can have success against good teams by riding 3 guys for 24+ minutes a night to control the game and shelter the rest of the group's weaknesses. Berube tried very hard to make Scandella work in the Bouw role and it made Scandella a clear whipping boy here. Mikkola has been really good lately, but we are still a long way out from him proving he can consistently handle 22+ minutes a night. Krug absolutely shouldn't be getting 22+ minutes a night on a consistent basis. For this group to be successful, we are going to have to spread the icetime out in a very, very different way than in 2019. Berube is experimenting with things and might find a balance/combo that works. But it is uncharted territory and at the moment the D group is still a ways away from 2019.
I tend to agree with you that the D group isn't
subpar, but there is a decent argument for it. Here are the relevant per 60 defensive stats at 5 on 5: 30th in expected goals against, 24th in scoring chances against, 29th in high danger chances against, and 26th in shots against. We are 15th in goals against, but that is likely mostly because the team SV% is 10th and the team high danger SV% is 3rd. I think that part of our poor numbers are a result of playing a high tempo, high event style and not because the composition of the D group is bottom 5 in the league. But even acknowledging that, it is very hard to make a case that the group is top 10. As a team, we bleed shots and quality chances. Personally, I have the overall blueline composition somewhere between 10-20.
You talk about other teams having never-heard-of-hims, but that is exactly where Mikkola falls for non-Blues fans looking at our blue line. Scandella is a "heard of him and he is washed" for most fans and Bortz is a "heard of him because he was a dirty piece of shit on their Cup run and has been since" for most fans. I'd bet good money that if you started asking the fans of top D groups about the bottom half of their D groups, you would get very similar answers to the way we talk about Scandella, Mikkola and/or Bortz. "He's got potential to grow into...he's a good penalty killer...decent defender but sloppy with the puck...he's good so long as he isn't asked to do too much..." The bottom half of our D group is adequate, but they aren't really above replacement level #4, #5, and #6 D league-wide. Which is how most top 10 blue lines are built. But an issue is that most top 10 blue lines are better equipped to shelter that group. None of our D can single-handedly impact a game the way a Hedman, Makar, Josi, Petro, McAvoy, Fox, Ekblad, etc are able to do so.
I'm not saying that our D group can't be good enough in the playoffs. Berube is experimenting a lot and there are some positive early results from pairing Mikkola/Parayko together more often and scaling back the ludicrous usage of Scandella. But there are absolutely genuine question marks surrounding the group, the underlying numbers are ugly, and it is a different group than the 2019 blueline.
