Blue Jays Discussion: RIP Roy Halladay (1977-2017)

[TheMadHatTrick]

Full stop. So the Blue Jays have the two blue chip prospects currently, yet they remind you of the pre-Shanahan Leafs, who did not have any blue chip prospects?

1) I compared their approach not situation.
2) Blue chip prospects in baseball are more volatile and by nature of the sport cannot impact the game as easily as in sports like hockey or basketball. Look at Mike Trout with the Angels for years as an example.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

1) I compared their approach not situation.
2) Blue chip prospects in baseball are more volatile and by nature of the sport cannot impact the game as easily as in sports like hockey or basketball. Look at Mike Trout with the Angels for years as an example.

1) You compared two different sports. Essentially comparing an apple to a brick
2) Blue chip prospects in baseball can be acquired while a team is competing, and by the nature of the sport, do not require tanking.

 

[Eyedea]

Thing about the Jays, and baseball in general, is that a rebuild is a death sentence to your organization. They have star talent. They aren't going to move that star talent in an attempt to draft a more expensive lottery ticket. And before the Cubs are brought up, a perfect storm of draft talent and a couple of dumb GMs isn't a realistic model to follow.

 

[Kurtz]

Thing about the Jays, and baseball in general, is that a rebuild is a death sentence to your organization. They have star talent. They aren't going to move that star talent in an attempt to draft a more expensive lottery ticket. And before the Cubs are brought up, a perfect storm of draft talent and a couple of dumb GMs isn't a realistic model to follow.

Cubs blew it up. Houston also completely blew it up. Yankees and Sox did a quick rebuild (traded away stars at the deadline). I think Washington and LA blew it up as well and then started a rebuild around a couple of young stars. Arizona is probably the only playoff team left alive who just did a bunch of retools - but I don't think our current mgmt has a Greinke signing in them (not that I blame them - that was hella risky). Not coincidentally, Arizona just happened to have the dumbest GM in baseball for 3 years.

 

[Kurtz]

1) I compared their approach not situation.
2) Blue chip prospects in baseball are more volatile and by nature of the sport cannot impact the game as easily as in sports like hockey or basketball. Look at Mike Trout with the Angels for years as an example.

I think your analogy is apt. Quinn/Ferguson/Burke always went the retool way and the Leafs pretty much always hit their ceiling as a 2nd/3rd round team at best. Shanahan came in with a stated goal of blowing up/rebuilding, we got rid of our stars (well...the only star), did a rebuild and now we're primed to be a serious contender for the next decade.

Jays are unlikely to get as much good fortune in the draft as the Leafs did, but the logic is there - they chose a certain direction and put themselves in position where said lucky break or two could turn them into a potential dynasty.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Washington was less of a blow up and more of a build from zero foundation. When did the Dodgers blow anything up?

 

[Eyedea]

Cubs blew it up. Houston also completely blew it up. Yankees and Sox did a quick rebuild (traded away stars at the deadline). I think Washington and LA blew it up as well and then started a rebuild around a couple of young stars. Arizona is probably the only playoff team left alive who just did a bunch of retools - but I don't think our current mgmt has a Greinke signing in them (not that I blame them - that was hella risky). Not coincidentally, Arizona just happened to have the dumbest GM in baseball for 3 years.

Biggest name the Nats traded was what, Livan Hernandez? Maybe Tomo Ohka? They were just flat out bad and waited 7 years until they finally made the postseason (and the NL East was weak during that time). LA I wouldn't say ever really blew it up. They gave Manny away but they were still a mediocre team until new ownership came in and they splurged (HanRam, Greinke, Boston deal, Puig, etc.). The quick rebuilds (or rather retools) that Yankees/Sox did seem like an option that the majority of people here are completely against (and the Jays have attempted that with Estrada/Happ/Morales/Smith type adds). Though the Jays haven't done that Ellsbury/McCann/Tanaka/Price/Ramirez/Sandoval type add, I think we can also take solace in the fact that the payroll isn't in a terrible situation.

 

[TheMadHatTrick]

I think your analogy is apt. Quinn/Ferguson/Burke always went the retool way and the Leafs pretty much always hit their ceiling as a 2nd/3rd round team at best. Shanahan came in with a stated goal of blowing up/rebuilding, we got rid of our stars (well...the only star), did a rebuild and now we're primed to be a serious contender for the next decade.

Exactly. Glad you're capable of understanding nuance. It's the same wishy washy approach that often just leads to treading water regardless of the sport.

For the record though I'm not calling for a rebuild, but if you're going to compete at least spend the money to do it.

 

[Leafin]

The good franchises draft well. Thats what has separated them from the rest.

It'll be interesting to see how the offseason shakes out. I think blowing it up is well... overblown. Good managers make good decisions. It'd be a bad decision to lose Donaldson for nothing imo.

 

[Leafin]

Baseball is unlike other sports where a 1st overall pick can change the fortunes of a franchise.

 

[Kurtz]

The quick rebuilds (or rather retools) that Yankees/Sox did seem like an option that the majority of people here are completely against

I see a quick rebuild more in terms of trading Donaldson, Happ and possibly some of our other vets (retained salary) for some prospects who are a year or two away, and then having a big crop of prospects come up within a couple of years the way Cubs/Astros did it. 2-3 year stretch and then we're back with a whole bunch of good prospects and lots of salary room, just in time to catch the Bosox on their way down. I think a large part of the board would be down with that.

 

[Leafin]

I think we could sell Happ, Estrada types closer to the deadline if we are out of it. Considering management was able to identify Teoscar Hernandez as an available trade target for Liriano i feel comfortable we'd find another decent deal for them.

Even then its not like you're getting a can't miss prospect for Estrada or Happ. You're getting a guy that has flaws and an element of risk. Donaldson is the only guy that should return blue chippers. I don't see Stroman, Sanchez or Osuna being dealt.

 

[Woodman19]

People too often associate rebuilding with tanking and vice versa. There is absolutely nothing to stop you from hording young talent, signing IFA's and acquiring controllable assets while simultaneously retaining the core team and adding veteran free agents. There is no rule that says you can only do one or another neither is there an assurance that a single player can turn around a franchise that typically needs to be 40 men deep to sustain success.

 

[Anthrax442]

Farrell is gonzo

 

[BlueForever75]

People too often associate rebuilding with tanking and vice versa. There is absolutely nothing to stop you from hording young talent, signing IFA's and acquiring controllable assets while simultaneously retaining the core team and adding veteran free agents. There is no rule that says you can only do one or another neither is there an assurance that a single player can turn around a franchise that typically needs to be 40 men deep to sustain success.

The Jays have to go the route above. There really isn't another option. People need to understand the last 3-4 years management has brought people back to the stadium. We have the best attendance in MLB the past 3 years. The last thing Rogers wants to do is empty out the stadium because of a complete rebuild. I agree that baseball isn't hockey. There isn't a reason to tank because the MLB draft is a crapshoot unlike the NHL where one pick turns your franchise around (Crosby, McDavid, Matthews).

You build or retool what ever you want to call it. Year by year. You draft well, you develop prospects, you deal vets when you cannot win that year. You keep doing this until your team develops. Signing FA's is not a bad thing in baseball. As long as they are the right ones. If your team doesn't pan out that year you trade them away for prospects (like we did for Joe Smith or Liriano). Drafting and recycling assets to gain prospects while competing can be done. This means the only way you trade a Donaldson is if you know you wont be re-signing him. A trade like this can speed up process to contention but it will also keep fans away. Its the hard truth.

 

[TootooTrain]

Farrell is gonzo

Beautiful

 

[Discoverer]

There are only a few moves (Donaldson, Happ, Smoak) that make the difference between the "middle ground" and the "tear it down" options with this team right now. Everything else is likely to stay the same regardless of which path they choose.

The big question for me, though, is: if the idea is to sort of try to contend in 2018-2019 and then really go for it starting in 2020 when Guerrero/Bichette/Alford/etc. are in the lineup and still cheap, are the Jays better from 2020-2022 or so with 34-36-year-old Donaldson (at something like $25+ million) or with the inexpensive young pieces they would get back in return? I'm not really sure, but it's obviously debatable. So why not extend Donaldson and improve the chances of contending the next couple of years?

Of course, the price has to make sense, and if you can't work out a fair deal I think he should be traded. But with the second wild card, any team that looks like they may be a .500 team is automatically a threat to make the postseason, so I'm perfectly content taking the "middle ground" direction, making a handful of smaller moves this offseason, and extending Donaldson with the expectation that he'll still be contributing when the next core of the team starts to take shape.

 

[Discoverer]

Beautiful

But also terrible. As a Jays fan, I loved Farrell managing the Sox.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

I see a quick rebuild more in terms of trading Donaldson, Happ and possibly some of our other vets (retained salary) for some prospects who are a year or two away, and then having a big crop of prospects come up within a couple of years the way Cubs/Astros did it. 2-3 year stretch and then we're back with a whole bunch of good prospects and lots of salary room, just in time to catch the Bosox on their way down. I think a large part of the board would be down with that.

You have a crop of roughly ~5 position players (+/- 2) and 2 (+/- 2) pitchers coming in 2019. Is that not sufficient in terms of quantity?

 

[phillipmike]

I am so conflicted. I want to see both the Yankees and Indians lose. Every time somebody scores, I am like "yea!" then a second later "oh no!". Wow, the Yankees actually got to Kluber.

This me too. I think i prefer the Yankees out more than Cleveland but would love to see Cleveland choke another lead.

That being said regardless of that i think whoever wins this series is gonna beat Houston and go to the WS.

 

[phillipmike]

Farrell getting canned really sucks... He was great as the Sox Manager. I wonder who is his replacement... Would love to see Eckersley. Collins? Matheny might be canned too. Torre? Maybe they go former Red Sox... Ross seems like he might be a manager. Ortiz? Varitek? Martinez?

I wonder if it is still his "dream job"!

 

[Discoverer]

You have a crop of roughly ~5 position players (+/- 2) and 2 (+/- 2) pitchers coming in 2019. Is that not sufficient in terms of quantity?

Exactly. And they have a couple excellent young pitchers already in place.

 

[BlueForever75]

Exactly. And they have a couple excellent young pitchers already in place.

In baseball you can never have enough. Depth is key to sustain success. I would rather have 10 position players and 5 pitchers ready for the big leagues. Why?? Perfect example is what happened this season. Injuries can take a contender completely out of the race for the playoffs if you do not have depth. Had we had 2-3 pitchers ready to step in this past season, a catcher and infielder we would have made the playoffs. We didn't!!!

You can never have enough depth in the minors....keep stock piling because in the end if they are not going to be part of your club they will bring in other major pieces when its time to contend in the playoffs and eventually the World Series. Remember AA was only able to make the deals he did because of the depth in our minors and his drafting. Yes he left it bare for the new management, but the key is sustaining enough depth to still be able to make the big splash when needed. I believe we have the management in place to do this. Just have a look at Cleveland today!!!

 

[Discoverer]

In baseball you can never have enough. Depth is key to sustain success. I would rather have 10 position players and 5 pitchers ready for the big leagues. Why?? Perfect example is what happened this season. Injuries can take a contender completely out of the race for the playoffs if you do not have depth. Had we had 2-3 pitchers ready to step in this past season, a catcher and infielder we would have made the playoffs. We didn't!!!

You can never have enough depth in the minors....keep stock piling because in the end if they are not going to be part of your club they will bring in other major pieces when its time to contend in the playoffs and eventually the World Series. Remember AA was only able to make the deals he did because of the depth in our minors and his drafting. Yes he left it bare for the new management, but the key is sustaining enough depth to still be able to make the big splash when needed. I believe we have the management in place to do this. Just have a look at Cleveland today!!!

Sure. But none of that actually supports trading away Josh Donaldson and fully rebuilding.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Exactly. And they have a couple excellent young pitchers already in place.

Yeah, agreed.

And when one looks at the Cubs and Astros, they both relied on two separate waves of young talent, coupled with veteran talent (acquired via free agency, trade, etc.). It was not one single wave of prospects after a blow up rebuild.

Cubs: 1st wave (Starlin, Rizzo, Hendricks, Soler), 2nd wave (Bryant, Russell, Baez, Contreras, Almora, Schwarber) + Veteran talent (Fowler, Zobrist, Heyward, Lester, Arrieta, Lackey, Hammel, Chapman)

Astros: 1st wave (Altuve, Springer, Keuchel, Marisnick, McHugh), 2nd wave (Correa, Bregman, McCullers, Devenski) + Veteran talent (Reddick, Gurriel, McCann, Gattis, Peacock, Morton, Giles)

Blue Jays (hypothetical): 1st wave (Stroman, Sanchez, Osuna, Travis, Pillar), 2nd wave (Guerrero, Bichette, Jansen, Alford, Teoscar, Borucki) + Veteran talent (Donaldson, Martin, Smoak, Tulowitzki, Happ\Estrada)