Prospect Info: Riley Heidt, C, 64th Overall, 2023 NHL Draft
- Thread starter DigitalBoldy
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DANOZ28
Registered User
At drafting? A lot of teams. Look at Judd's history in the first three rounds in his time as director of amateur scouting
Vancouver
2015: Brock Boeser, Guillaume Brisebois
2016: Olli Juolevi (5th overall), William Lockwood
2017: Elias Pettersson (5th overall), Kole Lind, Jonah Gadjovich, DiPietro
2018: Quinn Hughes (7th overall), Jett Woo, Tyler Madden
2019: Vasili Podkolzin (10th overall), Nils Hoglander
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Minnesota
2020: Rossi (9th overall), Khusnutdinov, O'Rourke, Hunt
2021: Wallstedt, Lambos, Peart, Bankier
2022: Ohgren, Yurov, Haight, Lorenz, Milne
2023: Stramel, Kumpulainen, Heidt
2024: Buium (12th overall), Ritchie
Dude is mediocre. The only non-lottery pick that looks to be a top 6 or top 4 guy for us is Yurov... and again, Yurov was only there because he is Russian and circumstances happening in the world.
Are you happy with his hit rate?
DANOZ28
Registered User
i would argue that we never had any high picks. so who did judd whiff on besides stramel at 21 and compare that to your fav judd peer. ps i will always believe stramel was a billy pick not a judds BPA!
Circulartheory
Registered User
Yes, very much. That is a really good hit rate. Green = excited, Blue = solid guys
I also added a red line because anything below it is too early to tell. I generally give 4 years before making a solid judgement one way or the other. 2 years of juniors + 2 years of pro -> where are they are now?
But what we have in the recent years I am am excited about.
EDIT: Also not included. Spacek, Pionk, Kiviharju
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BagHead
Registered User
They are all Billy's picks, because he is the one with the decision power. I think there's a lot of weight given to Brackett's thoughts because of his reputation, but ultimately the player is chosen by Guerin. Whether Guerin chooses to draft the player Brackett is highest on is up to Guerin, and not the other way around, therefore none of the picks are Judd's regardless of how much he liked or did not like a player.
You’ve got a pretty low bar for what excites you in a prospect.
None of which are 1st, 2nd, or 3rd round picks.
Alright, Judd gets zero credit then. Every pick from 2020 to present is a Guerin pick. Rossi is a Guerin pick. Zeev is a Guerin pick. Yurov is a Guerin pick. Nobody forget that all picks are Guerin picks when about to claim “Stramel is a Guerin pick.”
AKL
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I wanna go on the official record as saying I don't subscribe to this.
BagHead
Registered User
You just hammered the home the point I was hoping someone would make. My ultimate message here is this: giving one person all the credit but none of the blame, and the other person all of the blame but none of the credit is equally incorrect as giving one person all of both. It takes a team to make draft picks, and decisions are almost never clear-cut on who had how much influence, especially from outside observers like us, therefore both of them deserve the credit and the blame.
Was about to give you kudos for this reasonable, well thought out post, but then realized that it's really a credit to all of us here at MN HFB, as we have all have shaped your thoughts.
Pfft, speak for yourself. No sarcasm, innuendo, random tangents, shenanigans, or music...
BagHead
Registered User
Dr Jan Itor
Registered User
To be fair, the topic hasn't really come up in a while. I'm certainly not ignoring his part.
His first draft was 2020, and we need a few years to let the first couple play out. 2020 and 2021 aren't looking so hot outside of Rossi right now, so it's fair to start coming up.
BagHead
Registered User
It also doesn't allow Guerin to assume any credit, which is another problem.
That was mostly the point I was making, and you helped me to make it clear. Both guys need to be looked at in a more sober and clear-headed perspective than they often are.
I'm so sorry. I shouldn't be helping shape anything except Play-Doh figured at the local looney bin.
I think fans give Guerin a little too much credit for good things and too little credit for bad things. I think those cracks though are forming especially with the Brazzer trade and Trenin signing
BagHead
Registered User
This forum in particular is fairly hard on Guerin, much of it earned. I've seen that on Reddit too, at least this year. To be honest, I rarely see fans give Guerin praise, some of which he's also earned. To damn Guerin and Brackett with faint praise, I think they're as competent as most NHL teams' draft leaders.
Circulartheory
Registered User
That is where I am. I never bought into the Judd hype when he was brought on, but simply put, its too early to tell to say anything with complete certainty. Again, I give about 4 years (2 yrs junior + 2 yrs pro) to start forming concrete opinions and we're right in the midst of that.
but I'm leaning into more positive than negative as signs are good. The 2022 class looks good, I like Bankier, Spacek (I'm not sure why we don't give him credit for late round picks) and also for Faber (he is a Director of Amateur Scouting and Faber was in college ie an amateur).
He isn't some god of scouting, he'll have flaws, but I overall like the draft we put together in the last few years. There is a reason our prospect pool continues to be ranked highly despite not having consistent top 10 picks.
DANOZ28
Registered User
that has never been the point i try to make. most posters for years hammered my opinion when i wanted to draft a position of need rather than BPA. mgmt goes off the board ignoring BPA and most here didn't have an issue because they "trust in billy". i mearly point out billys mistakes.
Your argument is that we should be drafting for need instead of BPA? The sentence following the bolded is confusing.
Most people here assume that Stramel was a Guerin pick because he’s a big right handed center. But we ignore that Judd had Stramel over Ritchie.
DANOZ28
Registered User
DemidovSaveUs
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I think it’s fair to be disappointed with how these drafts look following the aftermath but he’s also only had one top 10 pick. If you can find a top 6 forward or top 4 defenseman per year, youre not missing the mark by much if at all. Realistically only a few players come out of the later rounds every year that amount to having substantial careers.
Dr Jan Itor
Registered User
It's not great odds to do so, but that's what ends up separating the great teams from the rest.
