Player Discussion Ridly Greig (LW) 28th Overall

[frightenedinmatenum2]

I don't think $3.25M is a lot of money in the current environment.

We gave Colin White almost $5M a season back when the cap was almost 10% than it is now.

White gave up UFA years.

This contract doesn't give up any UFA years.

The way that I see this contract is that he was getting 2.XXM on a 1-2 year extension. On a 2 year extension, his QO is probably 3M+, he also has arbitration.

Years 3+4 are the floor for what he would have gotten via a QO+arbitration. The only exception would be if he is terrible and they wouldn't have qualified him. They overpaid in years 1+2 by 500K-1M per year to get that cost certainty.

Looking at our projected roster going forward, we don't have a lot of cap flexibility. I can see why it would be appealing to get cost certainty for a player like Greig, especially if they have plans to deal Norris, and Pinto isn't signed long-term yet.

They also have been playing Greig in a greater role this past month or so. That's likely part of what expedited the extension. While I don't think this contract is team friendly by any means, if they believe in him as a player, there is never going to be a cheaper time to lock him down than when he is coming off of a few months of bad hockey.

 

[Loach]

Norris is going to get traded. Only thing that explains it.

 

[Bileur]

Well at least someone will get the contract Norris should be on.

 

[lancepitlick]

Can't say I understand this one, but I have a decent amount of confidence in management.

Grieg has never gotten more than 30 points, probably won't this year, and has never scored a ton at any level.

 

[PlayersLtd]

This is fine. Of course we know what Greig is, why is everyone saying otherwise? He is a 22 year old two way third line utility agitator with a 35 pt floor when the lines are figured out and he finds his consistency, which he will, young and has the pedigree.

Yes, SS is projecting him a bit but that's what you have to do and there is no doubt in my mind that Greig will live up to the potential of great third line player.

Pageau was a god around here and Greig is the closest thing we've had to that since. At the same age Pageau was still in the AHL.

 

[Xspyrit]

He basically got the realistic best case scenario money-wise for himself without having to earn it production wise. This would be like him signing 2.25M x 2Y and then 4.25 x 2Y.

Which is my main problem and a recurrent theme on this team. Pinto and Sanderson contracts were a bit too trigger happy too, Norris as well. Tkachuk and Stutzle were easier gambles due to draft pedigree and such.

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

I think they just expect him to grow in to it, and a lot of guys have seen their numbers be lackluster this year, but it does seem like it could also indicate a move may be coming. Something will have to change again if they miss out, and it's not swapping 3rd/4th liners again.

 

[Agent Zuuuub]

I like.

He's a player that embodies the identity Staios and Alfredsson are building the Senators around.

He just needs to get stronger and faster, and he will be an impact player.

 

[stempniaksen]

It's not a make or break contract on it's own, but almost $10 million next year between Greig, Perron and Amadio for bottom-six wingers (at least currently) is obviously a big waste of money for a team with cap flexibility issues moving forward.

It's not that I don't think Greig CAN live up to this contract, but given his (perceived) limited ceiling he's probably a guy they could have bridged to:

A) save money over the next 2-3 years of the deal
B) kept Greig hungry and motivated to earn his next contract
C) Not leaving him 1 year from FA (not as big an issue as the other two).

It's "fine" and if they think this is the worst hockey he's going to play in this life it's worth the risk for the cost certainty, but as is I definitely don't see this as some giant no brainer on Staois' part.

 

[PlayersLtd]

Can't say I understand this one, but I have a decent amount of confidence in management.

Grieg has never gotten more than 30 points, probably won't this year, and has never scored a ton at any level.

Never, except the 30 pt pace in the NHL last year and his two WHL seasons at 100 pt pace...

 

[FunkySeeFunkyDoo]

I still like the guy, but he's been a disappointment to me this year. Thought I'd see more offensive creativity and playmaking.

 

[frightenedinmatenum2]

Which is my main problem and a recurrent theme on this team. Pinto and Sanderson contracts were a bit too trigger happy too, Norris as well. Tkachuk and Stutzle were easier gambles due to draft pedigree and such.

I don't think it is fair to compare a 4 year contract to multiple 7-8 year contracts.

Realistically, we were probably going 2 years at minimum with Greig. Where we would then have had the option to not qualify him if he wasn't worth 3M-4M, which if he signed a 2.XXM 2Y type contract, he may have gotten through his QO or arbitration.

I agree with most people about Greig not doing enough to earn this contract, but I don't think it's so much about what he's earned and more so what the mechanisms of a 2 year contract would entitle him to. Because of how qualifying offers and arbitration operate, if he signs a 1-2 year extension this summer, he's almost certainly getting 3M+ on another contract in years 3 or 4. The only exception being if the Senators let him go to unrestricted free agency by not qualifying him.

So to me it seems like they overpaid on years 1+2 to get cost certainty of what should be the floor for years 3+4. Whether that is a good strategy is a different discussion, but I think people need to have a realistic view of what kind of leverage Greig had before they strictly say it's an overpayment.

 

[Qward]

I feel this is a little high.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

I'm fine with it. He'll get better and the cap is going up.

 

[Cosmix]

A rising cap and now a bit below $80m committed to the following roster:

Brady - Stutzle - Batherson
Greig - Norris - Perron
Amadio - Pinto - Ostapchuk
MacEwen

Chabot - Jensen
Sanderson - Zub

Ullmark


Leaves about $13-17 mil to re-sign Giroux, Kleven, Merilainen, possibly some of Forsberg, JBD, Hamonic, Matinpalo, Gregor, Cousins, Gaudette, and Reinhardt. They will need to add a top 6 scorer, legit bottom pair D, and designate backup and 4th liners… but I think the cap is there to make it happen

Where is your spreadsheet for next season?

 

[Cosmix]

Well it's certainly a better investment than Perron

That's one way to look at it; very cordial of you!

 

[Xspyrit]

I don't think it is fair to compare a 4 year contract to multiple 7-8 year contracts.

Realistically, we were probably going 2 years at minimum with Greig. Where we would then have had the option to not qualify him if he wasn't worth 3M-4M, which if he signed a 2.XXM 2Y type contract, he may have gotten through his QO or arbitration.

I agree with most people about Greig not doing enough to earn this contract, but I don't think it's so much about what he's earned and more so what the mechanisms of a 2 year contract would entitle him to. Because of how qualifying offers and arbitration operate, if he signs a 1-2 year extension this summer, he's almost certainly getting 3M+ on another contract in years 3 or 4. The only exception being if the Senators let him go to unrestricted free agency by not qualifying him.

So to me it seems like they overpaid on years 1+2 to get cost certainty of what should be the floor for years 3+4. Whether that is a good strategy is a different discussion, but I think people need to have a realistic view of what kind of leverage Greig had before they strictly say it's an overpayment.

He should have gotten a Ryan McLeod's type contract. I don't see the benefit of giving him 2 more years and PAY right away for it unless we think that Greig is going to score 50+ pts next season

The terms in the contracts I listed don't matter at all, completely irrelevant to the point that many of these guys are getting PAID before really proving it and it has started to bite us in the ass.

Anyway, it's pretty much too late anyway, we're pretty much painted in a corner. What is crazy is that Tkachuk, for example, has only 3 years left on his contract after this season.

 

[Cosmix]

Can't say I understand this one, but I have a decent amount of confidence in management.

Grieg has never gotten more than 30 points, probably won't this year, and has never scored a ton at any level.

My confidence in management has to be earned; to date there have been some positives and some negatives, so I am still in the wait-and-see mode. I do NOT see "best-in-class" to date.

I don't think $3.25M is a lot of money in the current environment.

We gave Colin White almost $5M a season back when the cap was almost 10% than it is now.

The Colin White debacle is not a good comparison because of the doofus at the GM position.

 

[bicboi64]

I get the logic of extending Greig to have some security in depth that can get better, but it feels like an overpay in a situation where we have all the leverage. Greig is pacing at below 30 points and this deal only ends up being good if he can become a 40-50 point winger by next year.

I was hoping for a deal in the $2-2.5 million aav range for 2 years. Similar to what guys like Sillinger, Chinakhov, Hayton, McMichael got, etc.,

It is a gamble though that could payoff, but isn't the most inspiring considering the wasted cap we have on Perron next season.

 

[Micklebot]

Seems like a pretty comparable deal to Newhook, who got 4 years at 2.9, that was 3.47% of the cap when the deal started. 3.25 is expected to be 3.51% of next years cap (92.5)

Newhook had completed 2 full seasons when extended, 33 pts in 71 games, and 30 pts in 82, while Grieg is pacing at 27 in 82 this year, and 26 in 72 last year, so a bit less production,

 

[robsenz]

Hmmm, I thought I liked Greig, but he really hasn't done much lately and I don't think there is much upside in his offensive game to be honest. if we start throwing around contracts we're going to end up with the Greening/Condra/Smith type guys all over again

 

[Alf Silfversson]

He's on pace for just under 30 points. 30 points in a $90M cap is easily a $3M player. Throw in his PKing, two-way play and physicality and to me this is not a bad contract at all.

I think he's got upside to score more too.

 

[Tnuoc Alucard]

I like.

He's a player that embodies the identity Staios and Alfredsson are building the Senators around.

He just needs to get stronger and faster, and he will be an impact player.

People were saying the same (negative) things about Mark Stone when he moved on from his ELC.

 

[Cosmix]

This org even pre-Green seems reluctant to play their centers on the wing, really Greig is the exception.

I personally think both Norris and Pinto are better suited as centres, but even down a goal to try and stack the offense we’ve never seen them move one of them to wing to see if they can generate more chances. And I don’t see why not since we’re weak on the wing.

Do you think Norris, Pinto and Greig are play-making driving force centres?

Stutzle seems to be one to me but the above 3 seem to lack those skills.

 

[ReginKarlssonLehner]

I personally love it. I am a big fan of his and think he can make this look like a hell of a deal by next year.