Revisiting Nico vs Nolan - 2nd Voting

[The Madrigal]

People over analyze things when they have months in between the actual games and the actual draft and often times it seems they find reasons to drop a guy like Patrick who was number 1 for so long. It happens almost every year in every sport except for the generational talents who only come by every so often.

 

[Striiker]

I don't think it's odd when Button or others flip players despite no games in between.

Hell, just look at our poll here. Over a quarter of voters changed their ranking of the two since the original poll despite no additional new information. No doubt some have flipped again after that (I have).

Sometimes you change your mind after thinking about it some more, not because you have more data points to evaluate.

I'd wager that quite a large percentage of those are because the rumors of who NJ was leaning towards changed.

 

[BackToTheBrierePatch]

take for what it is but Matt Laughlin who is the Devils radio PBP guy, was on Ice Cap(show on the NHL channel on Sirius) and he thinks they are going to take Nico. Basing it on how they want to play next year. A uptempo game.

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

When you miss as much time as Patrick did & you have a guy like Hischier rise like he did in their draft year it's going to happen.

 

[Random Forest]

I'd wager that quite a large percentage of those are because the rumors of who NJ was leaning towards changed.

Oh, for sure. But the point is that it's not terribly strange to rerank players despite no games taking place in between.

 

[The Madrigal]

Oh, for sure. But the point is that it's not terribly strange to rerank players despite no games taking place in between.

It's not strange in that it's common, but in my opinion it's stupid. Like I said above, people end up over thinking things or in the case of the NFL draft often get more caught up in workouts than how guys actually play on the field.

I think as it relates to this situation specifically there is no chance that Patrick isn't the consensus number 1 if it weren't for his injury history.

 

[Random Forest]

It's not strange in that it's common, but in my opinion it's stupid. Like I said above, people end up over thinking things or in the case of the NFL draft often get more caught up in workouts than how guys actually play on the field.

I think as it relates to this situation specifically there is no chance that Patrick isn't the consensus number 1 if it weren't for his injury history.

It's not stupid at all. Opinions change for reasons other than game performance.

If Patrick played the entire year and didn't increase his PPG output from last season, Hischier would still be contending for 1st overall. This isn't close because Patrick got injured. It's close because it's close.

People were flip flopping daily on these two before it became increasingly likely Hischier was going to NJ. There's nothing wrong with analysts making the same deliberations in real time. There's virtually no separation between these two players right now.

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

Teams do like betting on the riser as a draft strategy to potentially get a player better than expected. Because people didn't get a full read on the player good or bad beforehand like perhaps a guy who was well known beforehand. Hischier was more established heading into his draft year compared to these guys. But Ryan Johansen in 2010 & Mark Scheifele in 2011 were complete unknowns heading into their draft year (both guys were playing their first year in the CHL that year). They didn't have the longer sample size but their teams bet that what they did that year was forreal & they were going to keep getting better which they did.

 

[The Madrigal]

It's not stupid at all.

Quit acting like an opinion is a fact. It's stupid in my opinion, not in yours.

Opinions change for reasons other than game performance.

Opinions typically change when people have way too much time to over think and over analyze things. Humans are pretty fickle in nature anyway.

If Patrick played the entire year and didn't increase his PPG output from last season, Hischier would still be contending for 1st overall. This isn't close because Patrick got injured. It's close because it's close.

First of all, if Patrick is 100% healthy chances are he would have had a better season than the year prior. Second, I couldn't disagree more. This is about Patrick's injury history and Hischier being the "shiny new toy." Humans are not only fickle but obsessed with what is new and often times newer equals better in people's minds.

People were flip flopping daily on these two before it became increasingly likely Hischier was going to NJ.

Again, take away the injury concerns and people wouldn't be flip flopping as much. Most of the time the trepidation over taking Patrick stem from his injury history.

There's nothing wrong with analysts making the same deliberations in real time. There's virtually no separation between these two players right now.

Sure, there's nothing wrong with it per say, but again I personally think it's stupid. That just isn't how I operate. I'm not a flip flopping fickle person like most. Doesn't mean nor am I saying that I am right or wrong. As for last comment, I am not disagreeing with you on that, but I don't think you are asking yourself the right questions as to why that is the case.

 

[The Madrigal]

Teams do like betting on the riser as a draft strategy to potentially get a player better than expected. Because people didn't get a full read on the player good or bad beforehand like perhaps a guy who was well known beforehand. Hischier was more established heading into his draft year compared to these guys. But Ryan Johansen in 2010 & Mark Scheifele in 2011 were complete unknowns heading into their draft year (both guys were playing their first year in the CHL that year). They didn't have the longer sample size but their teams bet that what they did that year was forreal & they were going to keep getting better which they did.

I have been very closely following the NFL, NHL, and NBA drafts for years. This is a very common thing and it usually stems from people over analyzing things, the obsession that newer equals better, and this strange need to poke holes in the guy who was favored to be number 1 for a long period of time. Obviously with generational talents (McDavid, James, etc) it doesn't happen but if things are even remotely close it always happens. Hell, Ben Simmons was the consensus favorite to be the number 1 overall pick in his draft when he was in HS and people started to suggested Ingram over him late because LSU didn't make the tournament.

 

[Random Forest]

Quit acting like an opinion is a fact. It's stupid in my opinion, not in yours.

Opinions typically change when people have way too much time to over think and over analyze things. Humans are pretty fickle in nature anyway.

First of all, if Patrick is 100% healthy chances are he would have had a better season than the year prior. Second, I couldn't disagree more. This is about Patrick's injury history and Hischier being the "shiny new toy." Humans are not only fickle but obsessed with what is new and often times newer equals better in people's minds.

Again, take away the injury concerns and people wouldn't be flip flopping as much. Most of the time the trepidation over taking Patrick stem from his injury history.

Sure, there's nothing wrong with it per say, but again I personally think it's stupid. That just isn't how I operate. I'm not a flip flopping fickle person like most. Doesn't mean nor am I saying that I am right or wrong. As for last comment, I am not disagreeing with you on that, but I don't think you are asking yourself the right questions as to why that is the case.

Or perhaps people flip these players because they're virtually tied, as is the overwhelming consensus. If you think Patrick is clearly better, then great, I don't expect you to flip them without new information. But if you have these players neck and neck, with no separation, it's completely appropriate if you change who you have at #1 since the margin is so small.

Believe it or not, people can reach the conclusion that they're equally talented based on an honest evaluation of their abilities without considering Patrick's injury history. Hischier is not a shiny new toy. He was a top 10 player before the season started and had the single best season of any player in the draft. He's earned his rank on merit. If you still consider Patrick clearly better, more power to you, but don't pretend injuries are the only reason it's close.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

He was a top 10 player before the season started

I'm not getting involved in the larger discussion, but he wasn't in McKenzie's preseason top 15.

http://www.tsn.ca/mckenzie-s-pre-season-ranking-the-nolan-patrick-draft-1.567410

Some places did have him in the tail end of the top 10. I think HockeyProspect was one of them.

 

[Magua]

Tangent, but if we're adding Patrick into the fold, on top of Couturier who is likely our other top 6 center for a long time, on top of Vorobyov and perhaps Rubtsov and some others in that mold.......I hope that the Flyers, like they identified and targeted some size and physicality last year and have always honed in on the 2-way guys, make it an initiative to add more pure speed and skill. Hextall really tries to diversify the system, and I think that is a need so the team doesn't get too one note offensively.

I love Patrick and Couturier and all those guys, but they're in essence facilitators and space generators. They work best with guys who they can give the puck to with that space, though obviously Patrick can do more himself than Coots. But Patrick isn't one to hold onto pucks for a long time. He loves give and go plays and creating holes and spacing issues. He's the type of guy who would bring out the best in creative, fast, high skilled guys who fill that space. He'd probably work really well with TK. We need more TKs. Frankly, those guys are hard to find outside the top 2 rounds. It's easier to find intelligent, 2-way guys with skating issues or something. A lot of the flashy guys in the mid-late rounds are pretty one dimensional and busts in the making. So I at least hope our 2nd rounder is an interesting one.

 

[Ghosts Beer]

Hischier was playing in Switzerland. He didn't have the exposure and hype coming into this year. He proved himself to be much better than scouts and analysts realized before they got to see him on a regular basis in the Q. I think it's pretty safe to assume he probably wouldn't be going first overall had he stayed in Switzerland.

 

[Random Forest]

I'm not getting involved in the larger discussion, but he wasn't in McKenzie's preseason top 15.

http://www.tsn.ca/mckenzie-s-pre-season-ranking-the-nolan-patrick-draft-1.567410

Some places did have him in the tail end of the top 10. I think HockeyProspect was one of them.

The point is he didn't come out of nowhere. Calling him a "shiny new toy" is a mischaracterization of his pedigree. Plus, Hischier would have likely had more recognition had he not been in Switzerland. If he had played in the CHL as a 16-17 year old, he probably would have been top five going into the year.

 

[The Madrigal]

Or perhaps people flip these players because they're virtually tied, as is the overwhelming consensus. If you think Patrick is clearly better, then great, I don't expect you to flip them without new information. But if you have these players neck and neck, with no separation, it's completely appropriate if you change who you have at #1 since the margin is so small.

Believe it or not, people can reach the conclusion that they're equally talented based on an honest evaluation of their abilities without considering Patrick's injury history. Hischier is not a shiny new toy. He was a top 10 player before the season started and had the single best season of any player in the draft. He's earned his rank on merit. If you still consider Patrick clearly better, more power to you, but don't pretend injuries are the only reason it's close.

First of all, it wasn't even remotely close at the beginning of the season. Patrick was the consensus number 1 overall pick. Even at the midway point I am pretty sure everyone had Patrick. By the end of the season it was neck and neck and guys like Button and McKenize have changed their minds just over the last couple of months, having dropped Patrick to 2nd with Hischier 1.

As for your last comment. I am not saying it is a fact that Patrick is only behind Hischier for some people at this point due to his injury history. That being said I am of the opinion that that is the case so I am not pretending anything. I am simply sharing my opinion and unlike you I am not trying to pawn it off as a fact.

 

[Ghosts Beer]

Tangent, but if we're adding Patrick into the fold, on top of Couturier who is likely our other top 6 center for a long time, on top of Vorobyov and perhaps Rubtsov and some others in that mold.......I hope that the Flyers, like they identified and targeted some size and physicality last year and have always honed in on the 2-way guys, make it an initiative to add more pure speed and skill. Hextall really tries to diversify the system, and I think that is a need.

I love Patrick and Couturier and all those guys, but they're in essence facilitators and space generators. They work best with guys who they can give the puck to with that space, though obviously Patrick can do more himself than Coots. But Patrick isn't one to hold onto pucks for a long time. He loves give and go plays and creating holes and spacing issues. He's the type of guy who would bring out the best in creative, fast, high skilled guys who fill that space. He'd probably work really well with TK. We need more TKs.

Seconded.

 

[The Madrigal]

The point is he didn't come out of nowhere. Calling him a "shiny new toy" is a mischaracterization of his pedigree. Plus, Hischier would have likely had more recognition had he not been in Switzerland. If he had played in the CHL as a 16-17 year old, he probably would have been top five going into the year.

So barely anyone had him as a top 10 prospect going into the season and some didn't even have him in their top 15 but he didn't come out of nowhere?

Meanwhile Patrick was the consensus number 1 from pretty much everyone at the same time and was being talked about as the number 1 overall for his draft class the season prior.

Unlike a lot of the stuff being discussed/debated in this conversation these are facts that you have chosen to ignore because they don't support your narrative.

 

[Random Forest]

So barely anyone had him as a top 10 prospect going into the season and some didn't even have him in their top 15 but he didn't come out of nowhere?

Meanwhile Patrick was the consensus number 1 from pretty much everyone at the same time and was being talked about as the number 1 overall for his draft class the season prior.

Unlike a lot of the stuff being discussed/debated in this conversation these are facts that you have chosen to ignore because they don't support your narrative.

Oh, please, tell me more about this narrative I'm supposedly pushing.

FYI, nobody disputes that Patrick was the consensus #1 a year ago. The idea that Hischier "came out of nowhere" is a laughable exaggeration.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

The point is he didn't come out of nowhere. Calling him a "shiny new toy" is a mischaracterization of his pedigree. Plus, Hischier would have likely had more recognition had he not been in Switzerland. If he had played in the CHL as a 16-17 year old, he probably would have been top five going into the year.

I do think being in Switzerland hurt him for sure. Czech prospects can suffer from visibility and league issues, let alone Swiss ones.

 

[The Madrigal]

Oh, please, tell me more about this narrative I'm supposedly pushing.

Sure, it's called revisionist history.

FYI, nobody disputes that Patrick was the consensus #1 a year ago. The idea that Hischier "came out of nowhere" is a laughable exaggeration.

Ok, so Bob McKenzie having number 1 today, when 8 months ago he didn't even have him as a top 15 prospect in this draft isn't coming out of nowhere.

 

[Random Forest]

Sure, it's called revisionist history.

Revisionist history is a narrative? Hmm.

Ok, so Bob McKenzie having number 1 today, when 8 months ago he didn't even have him as a top 15 prospect in this draft isn't coming out of nowhere.

Yes, that's right. In any event, you bore me. Good night.

 

[The Madrigal]

Revisionist history is a narrative? Hmm.

No, you are using revisionist history to support your false narratives. I can't believe I actually had to explain this to you.

Yes, that's right. In any event, you bore me. Good night.

I bore you and yet you have elected to engage with me back and forth on this topic for the last hour and a half

 

[Captain Dave Poulin]

T
I love Patrick and Couturier and all those guys, but they're in essence facilitators and space generators. They work best with guys who they can give the puck to with that space, though obviously Patrick can do more himself than Coots. But Patrick isn't one to hold onto pucks for a long time. He loves give and go plays and creating holes and spacing issues. He's the type of guy who would bring out the best in creative, fast, high skilled guys who fill that space. He'd probably work really well with TK. We need more TKs. Frankly, those guys are hard to find outside the top 2 rounds. It's easier to find intelligent, 2-way guys with skating issues or something. A lot of the flashy guys in the mid-late rounds are pretty one dimensional and busts in the making. So I at least hope our 2nd rounder is an interesting one.

That sounds like a Chuck Knoblauch special to me. Our new assistant coach. I already forgot his real name. Kris? Whatever. It sounds like his kind of guy, based on those videos we saw from Erie.

 

[PK16]

Tangent, but if we're adding Patrick into the fold, on top of Couturier who is likely our other top 6 center for a long time, on top of Vorobyov and perhaps Rubtsov and some others in that mold.......I hope that the Flyers, like they identified and targeted some size and physicality last year and have always honed in on the 2-way guys, make it an initiative to add more pure speed and skill. Hextall really tries to diversify the system, and I think that is a need so the team doesn't get too one note offensively.

I love Patrick and Couturier and all those guys, but they're in essence facilitators and space generators. They work best with guys who they can give the puck to with that space, though obviously Patrick can do more himself than Coots. But Patrick isn't one to hold onto pucks for a long time. He loves give and go plays and creating holes and spacing issues. He's the type of guy who would bring out the best in creative, fast, high skilled guys who fill that space. He'd probably work really well with TK. We need more TKs. Frankly, those guys are hard to find outside the top 2 rounds. It's easier to find intelligent, 2-way guys with skating issues or something. A lot of the flashy guys in the mid-late rounds are pretty one dimensional and busts in the making. So I at least hope our 2nd rounder is an interesting one.

This is spot on and one of the reasons why I prefer Nico. The speed would really help us.