Revisiting Nico vs Nolan - 2nd Voting

[Striiker]

Which is what I've been talking about all along

I want Nolan to get 2 things:
- opportunity for 15-16 mins per game
- opportunity for time on PP1

As for Couts, take a look at his linemates over his career and look at how much time he's spent getting PP1 opportunity. Now, look at his offensive output. If you don't see a correlation there and why is offensive game never developed, then I can't help you and we can, say with me, agree to disagree.

On the bright side, the thing bodes well for Nolan is this I guess:

(hopefully you like jokes)

Yes, Patrick needs enough playing time.
Yes, Patrick needs PP time.
But noooooo, it doesn't have to be the 1st unit.

As for Couts...
Did his usage limit his offensive production? Yes.
Did his linemates limit his offensive production? Yes.
Does the 2nd unit being trash limit his offensive production? Yes.
BUT, did never playing on the top powerplay unit specifically stop him from developing better offensive skills? NOOOO. If he plays on the top unit as a 19 year old he doesn't suddenly have better speed, better passing, better vision, a better shot.
Does he have more points because he's playing with better people? Yes, but he's a worse fit for that spot than the current occupant of that spot is, so whatever points his resume gains would be less than the points we'd be losing off the resume of whoever he replaced... and that hurts the teams overall scoring.

 

[Tripod]

Yes, but they are still a long ways away from being a contender. Being a Flyers fan is going to require patience for at least another year or two.

I agree. I have been saying for awhile that us winning would be in the backs of our young d! not on the present forward core. I have said that guys like G and Jake can still play important roles like Hossa did for the Hawks. I believe Schenn and Simmer won't be here.

Adding the #2 pick hopefully fills the big piece we were missing going forward. That big, top C who is hard to play against and allows G easier matchups.

I still think if Hextall fixes the goalie situation, and the #2 pick makes it, we are going to have a good year. And if the young D struggle, he could go out and find a short term placeholder near the deadline.

Patience is hard. Us Flyers fans are not used to it. Hextall is building wonderful, deep pipelines at G, D and after this draft, F. And the best thing is, he wants it to continue long term for long term success.

Just fingers crossed our goaltending next year performs better.

 

[SolidSnakeUS]

I think if the Flyers play with dead weight, they can be in the playoffs for the upcoming season. But to be a legit contender? Give it about 2 or 3 years.

By the way, I'm happy if we pick either. I'm sure Nolan is falling to us, and I'm perfectly okay with that, especially since he'll probably play right away.

 

[The Burdened]

I think what is being lost in translation is that I'm NOT asking Nolan permanently take a spot on PP1 as a 19-year old.

All I want for him is an opportunity to play with our best players in ozone situations. That could be once every third PP or however it could be worked out.

To some, I guess wanting our hopeful future 1C to get opportunities with the top unit is a completely outrageous thought to have.

 

[SolidSnakeUS]

and, once again, I think what is being lost in translation is that I'm NOT asking Nolan permanently take a spot on PP1 as a 19-year old.

All I want for him is an opportunity to play with our best players in ozone situations. That could be once every third PP or however it could be worked out.

To some, I guess wanting our hopeful future 1C to get opportunities with the top unit is a completely outrageous thought to have.

Why not play on the 2nd PP where he can play with some damn good young players?

Our biggest issue last year was that our 2nd PP unit was total garbage and basically the first PP unit had to do all the heavy lifting throughout the entire season.

Schenn-Giroux-Simmonds
Ghost-Voracek

Konecny-Patrick-Linblom
Provy-Sanheim

That's a hell of a deadly one two punch.

 

[Tripod]

I think what is being lost in translation is that I'm NOT asking Nolan permanently take a spot on PP1 as a 19-year old.

All I want for him is an opportunity to play with our best players in ozone situations. That could be once every third PP or however it could be worked out.

To some, I guess wanting our hopeful future 1C to get opportunities with the top unit is a completely outrageous thought to have.

He will likely be playing at ES with some sort of mix of:

Lindblom Voracek
Konecny Simmonds
Filppula Schenn

He will get offensive wingers to play with AND he will get the 3rd easiest matchups. Four of those guys had over 40 points last year, Lindblom was just great vs men, and Konecny will be a year older and stronger.

Think of it this way, the only one he likely doesn't play with is Giroux and Couturier.

 

[The Burdened]

Why not play on the 2nd PP where he can play with some damn good young players?

Our biggest issue last year was that our 2nd PP unit was total garbage and basically the first PP unit had to do all the heavy lifting throughout the entire season.

Schenn-Giroux-Simmonds
Ghost-Voracek

Konecny-Patrick-Linblom
Provy-Sanheim

That's a hell of a deadly one two punch.

and, for most of the time, he will. That PP2 does look good.

I just don't see the harm in letting him get a taste of the top unit from time-to-time (unless he proves he's punching above his weight and he doesn't belong, then experiment over for now)

He will likely be playing at ES with some sort of mix of:

Lindblom Voracek
Konecny Simmonds
Filppula Schenn

He will get offensive wingers to play with AND he will get the 3rd easiest matchups. Four of those guys had over 40 points last year, Lindblom was just great vs men, and Konecny will be a year older and stronger.

Think of it this way, the only one he likely doesn't play with is Giroux and Couturier.

That's fair. For me, half the reason I want him to get a taste of PP1 is to see what happens when he and G are on the ice. By hook or crook, G is still our best forward and I'd like to see how Nolan does with him from time to time.

 

[SolidSnakeUS]

and, for most of the time, he will. That PP2 does look good.

I just don't see the harm in letting him get a taste of the top unit from time-to-time (unless he proves he's punching above his weight and he doesn't belong, then experiment over for now)

If someone is injured, scratched or being benched (or to mix things up as desperation), then I'd say go for it in the first season. Outside of that, I don't see Patrick as a regular on the 1st PP for a bit, considering how the 1st PP has been built for the past few seasons.

 

[Tripod]

and, for most of the time, he will. That PP2 does look good.

I just don't see the harm in letting him get a taste of the top unit from time-to-time (unless he proves he's punching above his weight and he doesn't belong, then experiment over for now)

So tell us, who does he replace?? Only Giroux and Simmonds are RH shots like Nolan is.

 

[The Burdened]

So tell us, who does he replace?? Only Giroux and Simmonds are RH shots like Nolan is.

I bump Wayne or Schenn down for those select PP's and see if it can work (long term solution is Wayne is moved next summer or at the deadline before he expires).

This stuff isn't locked in stone or permanent; if it doesn't work then it just goes back to the way it always was.

Nolan has a Carter-esque shot and it would be a shame if we couldn't get to see it in action on PP1 once every few games because it's blasphemy to even suggest one of the PP specialists gets bumped down for a PP shift every once in awhile.

EDIT: and I'm not at all suggesting he becomes a regular on PP1 at 19 or should be out there on the unit in a crucial game situation. I'm talking getting a shift with PP1 when it's like 3-1 or 4-1. Is that unreasonable?

 

[Striiker]

Yep, let's bump off one of the two leading PP goal scorers from last year (Schenn with 17, Simmonds with 16) so Patrick can get an imaginary skill boost from simply playing on the top unit...

That isn't how reality works so don't hold your breath.

 

[FLYguy3911]

Schenn and Simmonds are two of the best PP guys in the league and a huge chunk of their value as players comes from what they do on the PP. Doesn't make sense taking them off the powerplay.

People need to find a new comparison and stop comparing every young forward to Couturier and Couturier's development path. Couturier's offensive game didn't stagnate because of how he was handled. He's a good scorer at ES- one of the better ones in the league. He struggles on the PP. The things he excels at ES don't translate to the PP. He just doesn't have a ton of hand skill, he doesn't have a great shot, and he doesn't have the skating ability to create scoring opportunities with his feet. There's a reason he went from the preseason #1 guy all the way to #8 in his draft year.

 

[The Burdened]

(Schenn with 17, Simmonds with 16)

>Schenn - 17 goals
>Wayne - 16 goals

See! There you go! THAT'S how you use actual facts!

 

[Captain Dave Poulin]

No, I'm pretty sure it is an opinion, I have that opinion, I shared that opinion in this thread, and we've both typed a bunch of responses talking about our different opinions.

This is not fact that is backed up with irrefutable numbers or proof (if you have them, "them" being numbers/evidence that prove getting the opportunity to play on a team's PP1 with a team's best players has no positive benefit to a player's offensive development, then, by all means, present them).

I believe players need opportunities to succeed; you believe players need to succeed first and THEN get an opportunity later. In all likely hood, the truth is somewhere in the middle.

I know it is tough for some to entertain different opinions without accepting them, but I'm used to coming across that.

I understand that you are worried that if Nico/Nolan doesn't get enough opportunities to succeed offensively, they will be hampered and pigeonholed like Couts, right? But there are two things I just don't see. I don't see the connection between Nico/Nolan and Couts - they aren't the same types of players coming out of junior, so I don't think we have to worry about the former being held back. It's also a different regime running things. I just don't think this is something to worry about because we don't have any reason to suspect that the new guy will be held back. The other thing is "this year" - I don't see what the rush is. They need to acclimate to the NHL their first year, that's all. Getting onto the PP squads will come, I don't have any doubt about that. Actually, there is a third thing: the fact that we already have Couts, his very presence, makes it all the more unlikely that they will try to turn one of our rookies into a second Couts and keelhaul his offensive development. Even a milquetoast Marlboro Man like Country Dave Hacksaw isn't going to do that.

 

[The Burdened]

I understand that you are worried that if Nico/Nolan doesn't get enough opportunities to succeed offensively, they will be hampered and pigeonholed like Couts, right? But there are two things I just don't see. I don't see the connection between Nico/Nolan and Couts - they aren't the same types of players coming out of junior, so I don't think we have to worry about the former being held back. It's also a different regime running things. I just don't think this is something to worry about because we don't have any reason to suspect that the new guy will be held back. The other thing is "this year" - I don't see what the rush is. They need to acclimate to the NHL their first year, that's all. Getting onto the PP squads will come, I don't have any doubt about that. Actually, there is a third thing: the fact that we already have Couts, his very presence, makes it all the more unlikely that they will try to turn one of our rookies into a second Couts and keelhaul his offensive development. Even a milquetoast Marlboro Man like Country Dave Hacksaw isn't going to do that.

I can accept this, Captain Dave Poulin.

 

[Captain Dave Poulin]

I can accept this, Captain Dave Poulin.

 

[BernieParent]

Who carries the puck into the zone in place of Jake?

Giroux, Gostisbehere, Simmonds even. If Voracek isn't there to carry it in, they can work on a new zone entry with better passing so you don't have 3 guys standing still at the blue line.

 

[HighOFFHockey]

Found a nice little article from 2015 on Patrick. I mean, the guy is projected to be Manahan with a higher scoring upside. Can we go wrong?
https://www.todaysslapshot.com/nhl-prospects/nolan-patrick-set-to-break-out-in-2015-2016/
and...nice little quote here.

"He has great size, great reach and he’s a very responsible two-way player… He’s a kid who can match up against the other team’s top line, he takes the big faceoffs for us and he’s a great penalty killer. When it comes to Nolan, we don’t even talk about his age. Nolan’s among the best (we’ve ever had)." – Kelly McCrimmon, Wheat Kings coach, general manager and owner




The media seems to turn on him here. It looks like his family advised him to sit out longer than needed so it wouldn't hurt his value. If anyone listens to the Draft Analyst podcast, Steve Kournianous talks about how Patrick missing worlds was great for him because Canada wasn't a good team and if he wasn't the savior and played through an injury or something, the media would have turned on him more. It's interesting to see how his family's experience is already coming through here. I could see the media losing interest because of that.
http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/juniors/scouts-take-exactly-happening-nolan-patrick/


NOTE:
I noticed that McKenzie, recently, said he asked 10 scouts who would go #1 and he had 5 Nico, 4 Nolan, 1 Makar and then he stopped.
Back before Hischier's media popularity went crazy and Button changed his mind on #1 overall, Mckenzie asked 25 scouts and ended 13 Nolan 12 Hischier. Convenient to stop at 10 this time around. But who knows I'm probably crazy.

 

[McNasty]

He expanded it to 25 because it was a dead lock after 10 and again after 20...

 

[Jack de la Hoya]

Yeah, either he asked ten different scouts, or one of them simply flipped from Patrick to Makar. I don't think anyone is disputing that this is still the closest #1 overall call since...2006? 2003? I dunno. The Taylor vs. Tyler got hyped, but I don't remember a lot of actual suspense about the pick.

 

[Rebels57]

I still find it odd that Button had Patrick as his best prospect in his rankings (not his mock draft) after the CHL seasons ended. Then in his final rankings, with no games played since by either prospect, he flipped to Nico. Seems like he just changed it because he knew NJ was leaning Nico..

 

[The Burdened]

Yeah, either he asked ten different scouts, or one of them simply flipped from Patrick to Makar. I don't think anyone is disputing that this is still the closest #1 overall call since...2006? 2003? I dunno. The Taylor vs. Tyler got hyped, but I don't remember a lot of actual suspense about the pick.

Yeah, Button and McKenzie said this the closest Draft they've experienced since Linden/Modano, and even then Nico/Nolan may possibly be even closer.

 

[HighOFFHockey]

Yeah, either he asked ten different scouts, or one of them simply flipped from Patrick to Makar. I don't think anyone is disputing that this is still the closest #1 overall call since...2006? 2003? I dunno. The Taylor vs. Tyler got hyped, but I don't remember a lot of actual suspense about the pick.

“If you’ll remember, I told you a few years ago that these three drafts would produce four franchise centres — [Connor] McDavid, [Jack] Eichel, [Auston] Matthews and Nolan Patrick,” said Button. “I’m wrong on lots of things. I’m not going to be wrong on this. Nolan is a franchise centre with the attributes that speaks to. He’s an offensive catalyst who can score and create and grind. He’s a leader and he’s the backbone of a franchise.”

http://www.tsn.ca/patrick-poised-to-be-the-next-great-nhl-prospect-1.513469

Idk, I really like Craig Button and Bob McKenzie and TSN is awesome. Button usually nails these, so I'm expecting him to be right again here. However, it just feels like a strange draft year.

I just feel like something happened that the media lost interest in him. The transition was strange to watch over the past month. I mean, Hischier has been playing at a high rate for several months now.

 

[Stizzle]

I still find it odd that Button had Patrick as his best prospect in his rankings (not his mock draft) after the CHL seasons ended. Then in his final rankings, with no games played since by either prospect, he flipped to Nico. Seems like he just changed it because he knew NJ was leaning Nico..

This is how I see it as well. I think a lot of these draft lists just changed to Nico out of no where for this exact reason. Word on the street is NJ likes Nico, so they change to look smart in the end.

A similar thing with Heiskanen. Word got out that NHL teams have him rated top 5, so they all shot him too the moon. At least with him the list makers can pretend it was because of a strong U-18, but that's just lip service.

 

[Random Forest]

I don't think it's odd when Button or others flip players despite no games in between.

Hell, just look at our poll here. Over a quarter of voters changed their ranking of the two since the original poll despite no additional new information. No doubt some have flipped again after that (I have).

Sometimes you change your mind after thinking about it some more, not because you have more data points to evaluate.