Pre-Game Talk: Recent Play

[tarheelhockey]

Playoff seeding only matters for the first round to have a more favorable matchup. Even then i don’t think its a huge bump in winning percentage in the East. The current division pod shenanigans format has killed any real seeding favoritism. It’s just a hope to survive and advance model. That is fun for TV because series are more “up for grabs” but it has killed the necessity for the regular season.

I'm not sure what you mean by that.

There's a HUGE difference between playing the Rangers and Panthers/Islanders/Penguins in the first round. Rangers are the #5 team in the league and on a 12-2-2 run. The other three teams are middling on a good day, #15-17 respectively and only Florida is playing like they really want to be in the playoffs.

After the first round, if NJ advances the home ice in our second round matchup will be determined by whether we hold them off this week.

Those factors could make the difference between an ugly first-round sweep, or a dramatic Game 7 win to put us into the Conference Final. That's a hell of a lot still hanging on our performance in the final week of the season.

 

[Unsustainable]

Recent play? We suck.

 

[bleedgreen]

Playoff position matters a hell of a lot. One win could be the difference between the leaguewide #16 team or the #5 team in the first round. The latter would be criminal after everything this team has done this season.

It would have been nice to just coast down the stretch with meaningless games, but we didn't quite earn that right. They're playing hard right now because they really need to.

I agree but only to an extent. There’s likely a compromise to be made. One kid for one vet at a time or something that still puts us in shape to win the game. I think our style needs legs and our legs look spent. I remember being blown away by Staal’s line with Nino being so dominant in the offensive zone with extended cycling/possession time all season long. They looked really ordinary in the post season. I don’t know that some rest will be enough to overcome everyone playing that style in the playoffs but I do think we’ve got tired legs at the worst time, which seemed part of our downfall last season.

 

[hblueridgegal]

Sebastian speaks:

 

[GoCanes2015]

looking at all the playoff possible teams, yes, we're not playing great, but over the last 10 games?

Boston 9-1 (Duh, hate them all you want, they sold their souls for these results and they're getting them) 18 points
Rangers 6-2-2 14 points
Islanders 6-3-1 13 points
Toronto 5-3-2 12 points
Florida 6-4 12 points
Pittsburgh 6-5 12 points
New Jersey 5-4-1 11 points
Hurricanes 4-5-1 9 points
Tampa Bay 3-7 6 points

No one, other than the Bruins, are playing lights out. There's a recent gap in CAR play, but it's not the end of the world.

 

[Blueline Bomber]

Sebastian speaks:

Sebastian sounds like RBA. "The effort is there, but we get a bad bounce/take our foot off the pedal/etc, and it's in the back of our net"

Only so many times you can talk about how you need to do something before you ACTUALLY need to do it.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

I'm not sure what you mean by that.

There's a HUGE difference between playing the Rangers and Panthers/Islanders/Penguins in the first round. Rangers are the #5 team in the league and on a 12-2-2 run. The other three teams are middling on a good day, #15-17 respectively and only Florida is playing like they really want to be in the playoffs.

After the first round, if NJ advances the home ice in our second round matchup will be determined by whether we hold them off this week.

Those factors could make the difference between an ugly first-round sweep, or a dramatic Game 7 win to put us into the Conference Final. That's a hell of a lot still hanging on our performance in the final week of the season.

Seeing our injuries and “being the worst playoff team” our winning percentage will likely not change much no matter our 1st round matchup. 30% winning chance if we face the Rangers. 40% if we play florida or the islanders.

either way, as I said before, only the first round does having a better seed really matter. After that it doesn’t in the east.

 

[tarheelhockey]

Seeing our injuries and “being the worst playoff team” our winning percentage will likely not change much no matter our 1st round matchup. 30% winning chance if we face the Rangers. 40% if we play florida or the islanders.

either way, as I said before, only the first round does having a better seed really matter. After that it doesn’t in the east.

Where are you getting a 40% chance vs the Islanders? That seems downright fatalist. We are still a much better team than them.

Having the better seed means home ice in the second round. How does that not matter??

 

[DaveG]

I was told that there would be no math!!!!!

 

[DaveG]

So let’s say we completely flop this postseason, and instead of being the Cardiac Canes we’re use to we become the next series of regular-season juggernaut flameouts like the Caps, Sharks and Canucks. Do we see the clock really start ticking on Rod? Fair or not we know coaches are frontline casualties for blown expectations. If we have issues, many could argue that Rod is not one of them but maybe his system isnt postseason capable? Maybe he just doesn’t have the right personnel to make it happen? Just throwing that out there…

I say "no" only because I don't think Rod's system is necessarily the issue. Do I wish they would carry the puck in a bit more 5 vs 5? yes, when they have an opportunity to do so. But that also depends on the guys we have going for that. There's 6 guys on the roster that I'd trust with doing that, 5 are wings and 2 are done for the year (Aho, Svech, Necas, Turbo, Patches, Jarvis). Only having 1 true top 6 talent down the middle makes that kind of game difficult to play. Even if I think Koko has turned the corner to be a good 3rd wheel type, and not just a passenger like he was earlier this year on the Necas & Svech line, I don't think that's his game nor will it ever be his game.

I think we need a bit more speed and hunger in our 4th line to really be effective. I'd rather see us roll something like Rees-Drury-Noesen as our 4th line next year with maybe Pono mixing in than see us bring in a couple vets again unless they have Matt Cullen type skating ability and hunger to their game. I don't think it's much of a coincidence that our best 4th line in recent years had guys like Maenalanen, Wallmark, McKegg, Brown, and Bishop rotating in and out of the lineup as needed.

 

[The Faulker 27]

Sebastian speaks:

It's gonna start clicking soon everyone calm down. CALM DOWN DAMNIT!

 

[chaz4hockey]

looking at all the playoff possible teams, yes, we're not playing great, but over the last 10 games?

Boston 9-1 (Duh, hate them all you want, they sold their souls for these results and they're getting them) 18 points
Rangers 6-2-2 14 points
Islanders 6-3-1 13 points
Toronto 5-3-2 12 points
Florida 6-4 12 points
Pittsburgh 6-5 12 points
New Jersey 5-4-1 11 points
Hurricanes 4-5-1 9 points
Tampa Bay 3-7 6 points

No one, other than the Bruins, are playing lights out. There's a recent gap in CAR play, but it's not the end of the world.

Rangers and Islanders are played at 112/104 level...that's damn good. Agree on jersey, Bolts and Canes though.