Rebuilding On The Fly

[eco's bones]

It was a free thinking exercise because I am not even sure what to think of it all. Was trying to spark a conversation to get various perspectives so I could figure it out for myself.

Tanking is not an option for us because we have too much young talent. (That said, when it becomes an option for a team, they don't need to tell players to lose because they can/should just trade away all the vets.)

However, trading Nash and Grabner before they hit UFA seems to be a must even for an on-the-fly reload. Trading the 30 year old MZA before he gets old or leaves via UFA likewise seems necessary.

Repeat Brass for Mika+#2 with MZA. Trade Nash for a high end young third liner. Grabner for a young 4th liner like Fast, but a few years younger. This adds a young player to the second, third and fourth lines.

Add to that Mika, Hayes, Vesey, Kreider, Miller, Butcher, Fast, Nieves, and hopefully the 2 first rounders, and the team has a lot of depth.

Still no stars... now what... honest question.

IMO we've been at the point where we should have been seriously thinking about moving Nash for at least a couple years. FWIW his playoff performances the last couple years haven't been bad but they've never been anything approaching star quality and the first 3 seasons or so they really stunk. In big games elite players can take you over the top--he never really ever did that.

But apart from that Staal is the one that really needs to go now. He's a shell of the player he once was and his cap hit is a killer for what he brings. He's potentially blocking 3-4 guys who could/would immediately be better players. It's sad in a sense the injuries he had to deal with but the Rangers cannot go forward with him. I don't think there's a market for him via trade. I think he will have to be bought out and the sooner it's done the better.

Holden is another one that we could think about moving.

Maybe Grabner but I'm not that worried about him. He was really good value for the cap $ last year.

Nor am I worried about Zucc.

But I am thinking about Henrik. The problem there being that we don't have anyone in place to replace him. If Shesterkin was signed--I'd be thinking of moving Henrik within a year or so. I don't think we can win a Cup with him. I think his window is closed and especially if the Rangers expect him to play every game through 4 playoff series. I don't think he has the stamina for that anymore. He can be great for stretches but that's way too long. His backup has to carry some of the load.

so 1) move Nash now or before the deadline--get something back for him.

2) get rid of Staal ASAP--even if we have to buy him out.

3) trade Holden if you can get a decent return--I think we could get a 2nd or B+ prospect at the deadline--maybe a little less now.

4) I'd want more for that if I were to move Grabner.

5) hang on to Zucc unless we get an overpayment in young players/draft picks.

6) hang on to Henrik for now but be ready to move him in the next couple-three years.

 

[Off Sides]

My best guess, Lundqvist, Shattenkirk, Smith and Staal are all pending UFAs 2021-22

They are going with the anything can happen idea for 4 more years at least.

What they do in the mean time?

I'd rather see them commit to one direction or the other, but they seem more likely to play both sides of the fence.

Without some elite playoff performers at the most important positions, I don't see it ever going completely right, how they get those players by playing both sides of the fence, I don't know.

 

[NickyFotiu]

Here is a crazy thought. Lets go with the guys that actually produce on the ice. The folks here that only see age/salary would have likely been among the Pitt fans that wanted to trade Crosby and Malkin to "rebuild" the Penguins in 2015.

 

[Edge]

People keep mentioning the Oilers, but a better example is the Blackhawks or Pens.

It's not really a big surprise that a good percentage of the teams that have won cups the last 12 years or so have won them with at least one centerpiece guy taken with a top 3 pick, under the age of 30. There's simply no getting around that.

In fact you'd have to go back to 2008 with Detroit to find a team that didn't have at least one guy matching that description. (Even Anaheim a year prior had a former third overall and second overall, both still in their primes, on the roster).

It is possible to build a cup winning team without having at least one of those guys in the modern NHL? Yes, it is. But it is also significantly more difficult.

It's not about tanking year and after year. It's about having a few younger guys already in the system, and then adding one or two of those top young pieces to put your team over the top. Like anything else, it doesn't always work. But the results speak for themselves.

 

[NickyFotiu]

People keep mentioning the Oilers, but a better example is the Blackhawks or Pens.

It's not really a big surprise that a good percentage of the teams that have won cups the last 12 years or so have won them with at least one centerpiece guy taken with a top 3 pick, under the age of 30. There's simply no getting around that.

In fact you'd have to go back to 2008 with Detroit to find a team that didn't have at least one guy matching that description. (Even Anaheim a year prior had a former third overall and second overall, both still in their primes, on the roster).

It is possible to build a cup winning team without having at least one of those guys in the modern NHL? Yes, it is. But it is also significantly more difficult.

It's not about tanking year and after year. It's about having a few younger guys already in the system, and then adding one or two of those top young pieces to put your team over the top. Like anything else, it doesn't always work. But the results speak for themselves.

Are you saying if we had a top 3 overall pick on our team we would have a chance to win the cup?

 

[SingnBluesOnBroadway]

This is the next best thing and Dolan probably cares more about making the playoffs and making money then going full rebuild route.

I honestly believe that Dolan has no say in the direction of the team.

 

[Fugazy]

I honestly believe that Dolan has no say in the direction of the team.

And that's the best thing for this franchise.

 

[Mac n Gs]

I don't think tanking is necessary, but the only feasible outcome for getting that top pick would be having a season like the Flyers just did. Don't be awful, get lucky with the lottery and go from there. There's too much talent to get a high lottery pick unless Hank completely ***** the bed.

Top 3 of this draft should have 3 elite talents, possibly generational

 

[NickyFotiu]

Haven't we had a #1 overall pick on our team for 5 years?

 

[Edge]

Are you saying if we had a top 3 overall pick on our team we would have a chance to win the cup?

I think if we had one or two, in their prime (thus the reason Nash isn't on this list), our odds would go substatially.

You guys can't argue that fact. All you have to is look at the teams that have won the cup the last 12 years. Heck, with Nash in his prime we made it to the finals. That's not a coincidence. You need that kind of top end talent that is often found in those top three picks.

It doesn't guarantee a cup, but it certainly increases the odds.

 

[Edge]

Haven't we had a #1 overall pick on our team for 5 years?

And didn't we also come the closest to the cup when he was still in his prime?

That's exactly the point. If you can get those guys, in their prime (preferably as much of their prime as possible), the odds go up substantially.

And the results verify that.

 

[mas0764]

People keep mentioning the Oilers, but a better example is the Blackhawks or Pens.

It's not really a big surprise that a good percentage of the teams that have won cups the last 12 years or so have won them with at least one centerpiece guy taken with a top 3 pick, under the age of 30. There's simply no getting around that.

In fact you'd have to go back to 2008 with Detroit to find a team that didn't have at least one guy matching that description. (Even Anaheim a year prior had a former third overall and second overall, both still in their primes, on the roster).

It is possible to build a cup winning team without having at least one of those guys in the modern NHL? Yes, it is. But it is also significantly more difficult.

It's not about tanking year and after year. It's about having a few younger guys already in the system, and then adding one or two of those top young pieces to put your team over the top. Like anything else, it doesn't always work. But the results speak for themselves.

So you're saying we need to do whatever it takes, say F it, and get Duchene? Third overall, age 26.

 

[NickyFotiu]

And didn't we also come the closest to the cup when he was still in his prime?

That's exactly the point. If you can get those guys, in their prime (preferably as much of their prime as possible), the odds go up substantially.

And the results verify that.

Are you saying Nash was the driving force in our 2014 cup run?

Crosby has won the last two cups and 3 overall. He is most likely a top 5 player of all time. If there is a sure way to get a Crosby I would be happy to listen. Despite that we have beat Crosby and the Pens multiple times.

 

[Edge]

So you're saying we need to do whatever it takes, say F it, and get Duchene? Third overall, age 26.

Actually, that's part of the problem with trying to trade for them and not draft them.

When you trade for them, you often end up gutting a good portion of the roster and depth you were hoping to add them to.

 

[NickyFotiu]

Actually, that's part of the problem with trying to trade for them and not draft them.

When you trade for them, you often end up gutting a good portion of the roster and depth you were hoping to add them to.

Haven't the AVs drafted 2 of those guys? Where is their cup? Where are the Isles, Jets, Coyotes, Columbus, Panthers cups as well?

 

[Mac n Gs]

Actually, that's part of the problem with trying to trade for them and not draft them.

When you trade for them, you often end up gutting a good portion of the roster and depth you were hoping to add them to.

Which is why we shouldn't be making any of these big moves. We got Mika who was Gorton's shot at acquiring a potential 1C. Let's see what happens

 

[xsniper11x]

I think if we had one or two, in their prime (thus the reason Nash isn't on this list), our odds would go substatially.

You guys can't argue that fact. All you have to is look at the teams that have won the cup the last 12 years. Heck, with Nash in his prime we made it to the finals. That's not a coincidence. You need that kind of top end talent that is often found in those top three picks.

It doesn't guarantee a cup, but it certainly increases the odds.

Good to see you posting again Edge.

If it works out like it did for the Pens, Hawks and lets add LA also, then no doubt. The odds go up substantially.

However, to me that's not the argument. It's whether or not we should sacrifice what we currently have. A strong, young core that has been apart of a winning culture, for an outside chance of becoming one of those teams. We could just as easily turn into the next Avs, Isles, Panthers, Coyotes, Flyers, pre-Torts CBJ, pre-McD Oilers. Hell, for as good as it's looked on paper, it still hasn't worked for Tampa, Caps and Jets. I just don't think we can let the success of 3 teams skew a sample which is much larger.

We also need to keep in mind that this is all backward looking. Going forward, a combo of the new lottery system along w/ the new trend of bigger paydays for young players will only make this path even harder to travel.

 

[Edge]

Are you saying Nash was the driving force in our 2014 cup run?

Crosby has won the last two cups and 3 overall. He is most likely a top 5 player of all time. If there is a sure way to get a Crosby I would be happy to listen. Despite that we have beat Crosby and the Pens multiple times.

I'd say Nash was a big part of getting us to the postseason. Though his postseason was abysmal.

Here's the thing. It's not just Crosby.

It's Malkin.

It's Kane.

It's Toews.

It's Seguin, even as a rookie.

It's Doughty.

It's Staal.

It's Pronger and Neidermeyer still in their primes.

You can back before the lockout even.

Again, you simply can't deny that the teams who have won the cup tended to have that top end talent, still in their prime, and more often than not, it was talent they drafted.

Or, at the very least, it was talent they swapped for the guy they drafted with that top three selection.

When that accounts for at least 80 percent of the cup winners in the 21st century, there really isn't much room for argument. It is what it is.

 

[Edge]

Haven't the AVs drafted 2 of those guys? Where is their cup? Where are the Isles, Jets, Coyotes, Columbus, Panthers cups as well?

The question isn't whether it guarantees a cup.

The question is can you deny that the teams that win the cup have at least one of those guys in their prime? Yes or no?

If you don't have one of those guys, it's a mute point. You don't win.

Basically, it's arguing that that you'd rather stay in the middle. Because you don't want to gamble that you might become the Pens, Hawks or Kings, because you're afraid you might the Islanders, Coyotes or Panthers.

 

[NickyFotiu]

Actually, that's part of the problem with trying to trade for them and not draft them.

When you trade for them, you often end up gutting a good portion of the roster and depth you were hoping to add them to.

The Penguins weren't going anywhere for years till they traded for Kessel.

 

[Edge]

Which is why we shouldn't be making any of these big moves. We got Mika who was Gorton's shot at acquiring a potential 1C. Let's see what happens

Trading for them is not a viable option. Especially with the Rangers current makeup.

 

[NickyFotiu]

I'd say Nash was a big part of getting us to the postseason. Though his postseason was abysmal.

Really? 39 points in the regular season was a big part of that season? You are going to have to do more to convince me Nash was a driving force for our cup run in 2014.

 

[NickyFotiu]

The question isn't whether it guarantees a cup.

The question is can you deny that the teams that win the cup have at least one of those guys in their prime? Yes or no?

If you don't have one of those guys, it's a mute point. You don't win.

Basically, it's arguing that that you'd rather stay in the middle. Because you don't want to gamble that you might become the Pens, Hawks or Kings, because you're afraid you might the Islanders, Coyotes or Panthers.

You are arguing correlation equals causation while ignoring all the teams with top 3 picks that don't even make the playoffs nevermind win the cup. Those teams all had plenty of guys playing large roles that were not top 3 picks. We didn't have a top 3 pick on our cup winning team.

 

[Edge]

The Penguins weren't going anywhere for years till they traded for Kessel.

Well, yeah, you still have to have good talent to surround the players with. That doesn't change just because you have a high end talent.

And it's worth pointing out that even a guy like Phil Kessel has some pretty high end talent.

 

[True Blue]

The Penguins weren't going anywhere for years till they traded for Kessel.

Kessel was an add on, albeit an important one. But still an add on to Crosby & Malkin. And you forget just how talented Kessel is by himself.