Post-Game Talk: Ready. Set. Terrible | Jets lose 4-1

[broinwhyteridge]

Indeed, it's really hard to understand as someone who has watched him for such a long time.

Must not drink with his glove hand... if he did you'd think his reflexes would be better.

 

[King Woodballs]

Devan Dubnyk, Curtis Sanford. .914 and .911 SV % last year.

I challenge someone to convince me those defenses from last year were better than ours.

I am going to stop now because it's like arguing with someone that the sky is blue.

I am not absolving Pavelec of his mediocre play.
All I am saying is the play in front hasnt helped the cause either

 

[Jet]

It is pretty sad that according to most of the HFJetsboard members Pavelec is a below average, overpaid, unreliable, ahl goaltender with no potential to take the Jets into the playoffs???

I am surprised that people here don't carry torches & run him out of town after a loss.

If the Jets actually came here after a loss & read what the chicken littles & ledge jumpers wrote they would be on suicide watch.

This is a hockey chat forum. When the team we love loses we talk about why that may be. What is the problem with that?

It's not about being on any ledge. My assertions specifically about Pavelec has nothing to do with last nights game (sorry I am taking this thread OT with it). It's fact. Should we not be able to share our thoughts about players performance?

For the record this is not some nonsensical rant on how an extremely solid statistically guy like Hainsey is so awful. It is logical, fact based observation.

 

[theamazingchris]

Mark Stuart getting embarressed last night for starters. Guys like Kovalchuck, being able to walk right into the slot late in a 1 goal game for another.

Pavs has let in plenty of soft goals. We can go back and forth like this forever, but the numbers don't lie. Good players end up good statistically, bad players end up bad statistically. Not gospel, but very reliable.

 

[TroubaFan1]

I am going to stop now because it's like arguing with someone that the sky is blue.

I feel the same way.

 

[Duke749]

The numbers do not lie. Pavelec has been a below average goaltender STATISTICALLY his entire career, besides a few weeks last season where he earned a ridiculous contract.

His entire career he has been several points lower in save percentage than an average NHL goalie. If this team had NHL average goaltending, it would be in a totally different place from where it is today.

That is just a cold, hard fact.

And here in the lies one problem. Completely unrealistic expectations. Now this year I would say is a little different, but what exactly are people expecting before this year? Yes he should be making strides forward but seems to have regressed after the lockout. His developmental path has been on track pretty well until this year.

-Last year he was arguably overused but put in an effort starts wise that was among the tops in tw league. But it was his first year putting those kinda of starts so some struggles are expected out of a young goaltender.
-Year before was his first as the clear cut #1 at 23 years old. Not many guys are given that kind if responsibility. He was still showing progression. No, not from the god dam stats, just by watching him you could see it. It was plain as day.
-Year before that he split starts and showed promise and looked good for his age.

Now this year, THIS ****ING YEAR(!!!), he has shown something he hasn't shown in his career thus far, and that's regression. Now if you guys want to critisize him for that, go ahead, he deserves some criticism, but do NOT condemn him for past seasons when he showed steady improvement year to year. If you "THINK" the stats are telling, then you are being lied too.

Stats only tell a small story with goalies. Do you really need stats to tell you how Oavs has been this year? Do they tell you he stunk it up early in the year? Sure, if you actually go deeper then his overall stats. Otherwise no. Do they tell you he pulled his head out of his ass and went on a solid streak playing well? Do they tell you he's struggled a bit lately? Actually, what they tell you lately is that he's sucked as much as a porn star but in reality he's been maybe average while the team in front of him has been pretty bad.

What's unfortunate is this team is still stuck at a point to where they HAVE to have stellar goaltending night in and night out or they will go into ruts. Idk where the specific problem is in front of Pavs but I don't like it. Pavs doesn't just need to turn the corner, the tea as a whole has to because this is nothing but déjà vu alllllllllll over again. And this franchise knows a thing or two about that.

/end buzzed rant lol

 

[Jet]

I am not absolving Pavelec of his mediocre play.
All I am saying is the play in front hasnt helped the cause either

Sorry, I shouldn't have assumed -- getting frustrated I guess. You are right, last night Pavelec was low on the list of people I wanted to bag skate.

 

[broinwhyteridge]

Mark Stuart getting embarressed last night for starters. Guys like Kovalchuck, being able to walk right into the slot late in a 1 goal game for another.

The only reason that happened is a NJD player ran a pick on Byfuglien (i.e. interference) that the blind stripes "missed".

As you would know from watching and/or listening to the game or the highlights.

 

[TroubaFan1]

Pavs has let in plenty of soft goals. We can go back and forth like this forever, but the numbers don't lie. Good players end up good statistically, bad players end up bad statistically. Not gospel, but very reliable.

Numbers do lie, Chris Osgood anyone?

 

[theamazingchris]

It is pretty sad that according to most of the HFJetsboard members Pavelec is a below average, overpaid, unreliable, ahl goaltender with no potential to take the Jets into the playoffs???

But if he is those things, then what? (Even I'm not saying he's AHL quality. He's better than that.) But the numbers don't lie, and he is below average, and he is unreliable! I don't hate the guy, I wish him all the best. Nothing would make me happier than him turning his game around.

 

[Jet]

And here in the lies one problem. Completely unrealistic expectations. Now this year I would say is a little different, but what exactly are people expecting before this year? Yes he should be making strides forward but seems to have regressed after the lockout. His developmental path has been on track pretty well until this year.

-Last year he was arguably overused but put in an effort starts wise that was among the tops in tw league. But it was his first year putting those kinda of starts so some struggles are expected out of a young goaltender.
-Year before was his first as the clear cut #1 at 23 years old. Not many guys are given that kind if responsibility. He was still showing progression. No, not from the god dam stats, just by watching him you could see it. It was plain as day.
-Year before that he split starts and showed promise and looked good for his age.

Now this year, THIS ****ING YEAR(!!!), he has shown something he hasn't shown in his career thus far, and that's regression. Now if you guys want to critisize him for that, go ahead, he deserves some criticism, but do NOT condemn him for past seasons when he showed steady improvement year to year. If you "THINK" the stats are telling, then you are being lied too.

Stats only tell a small story with goalies. Do you really need stats to tell you how Oavs has been this year? Do they tell you he stunk it up early in the year? Sure, if you actually go deeper then his overall stats. Otherwise no. Do they tell you he pulled his head out of his ass and went on a solid streak playing well? Do they tell you he's struggled a bit lately? Actually, what they tell you lately is that he's sucked as much as a porn star but in reality he's been maybe average while the team in front of him has been pretty bad.

What's unfortunate is this team is still stuck at a point to where they HAVE to have stellar goaltending night in and night out or they will go into ruts. Idk where the specific problem is in front of Pavs but I don't like it. Pavs doesn't just need to turn the corner, the tea as a whole has to because this is nothing but déjà vu alllllllllll over again. And this franchise knows a thing or two about that.

/end buzzed rant lol

That's all fine and well, but I can list off literally dozens of goaltenders in the NHL who came into the NHL at the same time as Pavelec and have consistently performed better. I can also show you goaltenders (Devan Dubnyk for example) who have even less experience than Pavelec, have played on far worse teams, but still manage NHL average percentages.

The numbers prove out that Pavelec has, for his entire career, been below average.

I don't know how else to say it.

 

[TroubaFan1]

The only reason that happened is a NJD player ran a pick on Byfuglien (i.e. interference) that the blind stripes "missed".

As you would know from watching and/or listening to the game or the highlights.

Ok, then what about letting Kessel walk in and steal the game from us? Or how about letting Ovi get a breakaway, Pavs stops him, then the rebound gets picked up and put in the net with no Jets dman in sight?

 

[theamazingchris]

I feel the same way.

Then we'll have to agree to disagree. You may have a low opinion of statistics, but like it or not, it's foolish to dismiss them completely.

 

[TroubaFan1]

Then we'll have to agree to disagree. You may have a low opinion of statistics, but like it or not, it's foolish to dismiss them completely.

I dont dismiss them completely, but its foolish to say Pavs is "below average".

 

[theamazingchris]

I dont, but its foolish to say Pavs is "below average".

But he IS below average, by every statistical measure! "Below average" doesn't even mean anything unless you're referencing statistics!

 

[Duke749]

That's all fine and well, but I can list off literally dozens of goaltenders in the NHL who came into the NHL at the same time as Pavelec and have consistently performed better. I can also show you goaltenders (Devan Dubnyk for example) who have even less experience than Pavelec, have played on far worse teams, but still manage NHL average percentages.

The numbers prove out that Pavelec has, for his entire career, been below average.

I don't know how else to say it.

And here lies your problem still, you are looking at this from only one point of view. Yes, stats are a start from getting an opinion in someone, but you have to watch someone's play to see how they got to that point and you either won't, haven't, or refuse to look at something from a different POV.

Scouts don't look at just stats when scouting, they look at actual play. They watch them.

Btw, what kind of #s were you expecting a goaltender to put up at 22 years old? Average stats? Above average? OR REALISTIC EXPECTATIONS???

 

[TroubaFan1]

But he IS below average, by every statistical measure! "Below average" doesn't even mean anything unless you're referencing statistics!

Theres always the reference of watching. You can see above or below average play, you dont need stats for that im sorry.

 

[Duke749]

But he IS below average, by every statistical measure! "Below average" doesn't even mean anything unless you're referencing statistics!

He has been below average this year. But did you honestly need statistics to tell you that? That's the point I'm trying to make. Ignore his stats. Pay attention to his play. That's where you'll learn something.

 

[TroubaFan1]

He has been below average this year. But did you honestly need statistics to tell you that? That's the point I'm trying to make. Ignore his stats. Pay attention to his play. That's where you'll learn something.

I pat attention to his play, I dont see below average play. He started of well after the first game, he had a couple of stinkers, then was solid for the past 9 straight before last night.

 

[Lynk]

This thread, man.

 

[theamazingchris]

I hate the implication that because I use statistics, I don't "see" what's going on. Do you know why I looked at the stats in the first place? Because I had a hunch that Pavs wasn't too great, and I wanted to justify/refute that belief. And his poor statistics are convincing reasons for my hypothesis.

Anyway, if we're not talking statistics, then using words like "below average" is meaningless. You can't know what "below average" is unless you look at what the average is. And you can't figure out the average without crunching some numbers.

Alright, I'm done. You guys should read "Moneyball". You never know, it might change your minds.

 

[TroubaFan1]

Alright, I'm done. You guys should read "Moneyball". You never know, it might change your minds.

Not when it comes to playing net in hockey.

 

[broinwhyteridge]

Theres always the reference of watching. You can see above or below average play, you dont need stats for that im sorry.

How do you know what "average" is then?

 

[TroubaFan1]

How do you know what "average" is then?

Average play is in the eye of the beholder.

 

[Duke749]

I hate the implication that because I use statistics, I don't "see" what's going on. Do you know why I looked at the stats in the first place? Because I had a hunch that Pavs wasn't too great, and I wanted to justify/refute that belief. And his poor statistics are convincing reasons for my hypothesis.

Anyway, if we're not talking statistics, then using words like "below average" is meaningless. You can't know what "below average" is unless you look at what the average is. And you can't figure out the average without crunching some numbers.

Alright, I'm done. You guys should read "Moneyball". You never know, it might change your minds.

Based off of this post I think you understand my point enough and I understand yours enough. So you and I will leave it at that. Lol Either way we seem to have come to a similar conclusion at least.

Now maybe I can get back to my NHL13 and beer. Lol