Speculation: Re-Sign Campbell?

[Nylanderthal]

It is a MASSIVE concern, and the Leafs are absolutely SCREWED because dumbas screwed up the cap so bad they are clearly going to lose their MVP who is CARRYING the team and who they CANT WIN WITHOUT.

lol GM dumbas.

He’s finally snapped

 

[Menzinger]

I still think it's hard to say no to being financially set for life for the sake of a few million more when the risk of injury is always there. Of course I could be wrong, it's JMHO.

It was likely in both parties interest this summer to take a wait and see approach regarding a contract extension unless Campbell and his agent were convinced he'd be worse this season

 

[ShaneFalco]

He’s finally snapped

That was long ago

 

[Mickey Marner]

I'd rather sign him sooner than later, his AAV certainly isn't going down the longer we wait.

 

[zeke]

I'd rather sign him sooner than later, his AAV certainly isn't going down the longer we wait.

I mean, his save percentage will certainly go down the longer we wait.

 

[ShaneFalco]

I'd rather sign him sooner than later, his AAV certainly isn't going down the longer we wait.

I think at this point you wait - he'll have his rough patches like any goalie and let's see if he can stay healthy

 

[LeafsFan89]

I am not really worried. I can't see Campbell requesting more than 5M realistically. He had a good 20 games last year. This year his save percentage will go down. By comparison, Frederik played 125 NHL Games before his 5M contract, and before COVID-19.

Let's say Campbell wants 5.5.

- Capmbell's existing (1.65M)
- Kessel - (1.2M)
- Mikheyev likely gone (~1.65M)
- Frank Seravalli noted the cap would go up by 1M.
- Total: 5.5M

- Lilly and Sandin won't (can't) ask for the moon. One of Muzzin, Holl, Dermott will likely be traded realistically (we need to play our upcoming dmen). Good chance we have an Engvall replacement internally (Anderson, Robertson... Bottom bin player like Bunting, Kase, Kemf...).

Can we just enjoy the fact our team is giving a shit game in and game out consistently?

 

[4thline]

I still think it's hard to say no to being financially set for life for the sake of a few million more when the risk of injury is always there. Of course I could be wrong, it's JMHO.

But what was reasonable, and was it just a few million more?

Between Dreidger and Ullmark I think there would be cause for there to be a pretty big gap in what each party thought.

IMO the difference between 10.5 and 25 is more than "a few million more", especially when absent a career ending injury the downside to the year is probably at least a 2x2

 

[4thline]

Campbell's agent will use Petr Mrazek's 3 years at $3.8 mil against Dubas as extreme leverage in contract negotiations, unless Campbell is willing to give Leafs a discount to stay. IMO

Why would he use the lower bound on his ask as "extreme leverage"?

 

[Warden of the North]

I'm afraid the Mrazek deal has complicated matters. It certainly could not have gone any worse to this point

 

[Confucius]

I'd rather sign him sooner than later, his AAV certainly isn't going down the longer we wait.

I think we can get the AAV down by giving him a max deal. 8 years at 1.5 million a year below his market value. Say some team offers him a 4 year deal at 5.5, we offer 8 years at 4 million per. Soup gets security we get a discount.

 

[Cap'n Flavour]

I think we can get the AAV down by giving him a max deal. 8 years at 1.5 million a year below his market value. Say some team offers him a 4 year deal at 5.5, we offer 8 years at 4 million per. Soup gets security we get a discount.

Signing pretty much any goalie for 8 years seems like a bad idea!

 

[Cujo311999]

Don't sign him until we see if he can deliver in the playoffs, when it counts. He didn't have a great game 7 against MTL. Gallagher's goal was awful.

 

[Gary Nylund]

It was likely in both parties interest this summer to take a wait and see approach regarding a contract extension unless Campbell and his agent were convinced he'd be worse this season

For me personally, I'd seen enough and had extending Campbell as my #1 priority in the off-season. It seems Dubas felt otherwise and so far, that's looking like a costly mistake.

But what was reasonable, and was it just a few million more?

Between Dreidger and Ullmark I think there would be cause for there to be a pretty big gap in what each party thought.

IMO the difference between 10.5 and 25 is more than "a few million more", especially when absent a career ending injury the downside to the year is probably at least a 2x2

I obviously have no idea. If there was a large gap then either Campbell was asking for too much or we were offering too little. My best guess (because Campbell had plenty of motivation to get a deal done) is that we were offering too little, basically saying go ahead and prove you're worth what you're asking for. Now he's in the process of proving he's worth even more and if he keeps playing the way he is and gets to UFA status, it's gonna cost more still. If it does get that far then I there's a good chance that we lose him, and boy would that ever suck.

 

[Bomber0104]

Gonna have to wait it out with Campbell.

His stock is at its absolute peak right now so you have to let him come down from that.

Not the worst problem to have, ultimately.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Signing pretty much any goalie for 8 years seems like a bad idea!

Agreed. I love the guy but 8 years, that's scary as hell.

 

[4thline]

I obviously have no idea. If there was a large gap then either Campbell was asking for too much or we were offering too little. My best guess (because Campbell had plenty of motivation to get a deal done) is that we were offering too little, basically saying go ahead and prove you're worth what you're asking for. Now he's in the process of proving he's worth even more and if he keeps playing the way he is and gets to UFA status, it's gonna cost more still. If it does get that far then I there's a good chance that we lose him, and boy would that ever suck.

Would you have given him 5x5 in the offseason? Or even say 4x4?

 

[Menzinger]

For me personally, I'd seen enough and had extending Campbell as my #1 priority in the off-season. It seems Dubas felt otherwise and so far, that's looking like a costly mistake.

Fair enough. Though personally I think there was a legit concern whether he could sustain that type of play over a full regular season (or even be able to physically be consistent). We still don't have an answer to that too.

Regardless I don't think there will be a huge issue. His sv% will be good by seasons end, but not quite as good as it is now and if the Leafs want to sign him, they'll make room

 

[ACC1224]

Signing pretty much any goalie for 8 years seems like a bad idea!

This all day.
I’ll be happy when he’s extended but I would hate to see his Leaf tenure end bad. If he’s signed for 8 no doubt there will be resentment in the last couple years.

 

[666]

As a fan, the Cap is the worse thing to happen to the League. Absolutely hate it.

If you want 32 relatively financially healthy teams you're stuck with the cap. The real problem with the cap is the guaranteed contracts.

 

[ACC1224]

If you want 32 relatively financially healthy teams you're stuck with the cap. The real problem with the cap is the guaranteed contracts.

Yeah I understand the necessity of the cap. Don’t like it though.
Just tweak it so buyouts don’t count against it would be a start.

 

[Confucius]

Signing pretty much any goalie for 8 years seems like a bad idea!

not if you get him below market value.

 

[Confucius]

Gonna have to wait it out with Campbell.

His stock is at its absolute peak right now so you have to let him come down from that.

Not the worst problem to have, ultimately.

Really, wait until we win the Presidents trophy and Soup also wins the Vezina.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Would you have given him 5x5 in the offseason? Or even say 4x4?

I'll be honest here and say I haven't done a ton of research on what goalies get paid. I've looked at a few contracts but spending 10 minutes on the web isn't really enough to form a strong opinion on specific numbers so I'll just repeat what I said earlier - I would have made an extension for Campbell my #1 priority. Off the top of my head though, I would have done 4x4 for sure, 5x5 I'd have to think about and do a bit of research. I'd also be surprised if 4x4 wouldn't have been enough to get it done and I'd be even more surprised if 5x5 was what Campbell was holding out for.

Fair enough. Though personally I think there was a legit concern whether he could sustain that type of play over a full regular season (or even be able to physically be consistent). We still don't have an answer to that too.

That's fair, there are some unknows here and I have no idea what the physical issues are (or were). Last season we were load managing the crap out of him so I assumed that there had to be some reason for it but now it's hard to say if there was ever anything there at all to worry about.

Regardless I don't think there will be a huge issue. His sv% will be good by seasons end, but not quite as good as it is now and if the Leafs want to sign him, they'll make room

I hope you're right that it won't be a huge issue. The way he's playing though, it's a bit scary to think about how much this season may increase the cost if signing him.

 

[ACC1224]

Really, wait until we win the Presidents trophy and Soup also wins the Vezina.

May not matter at this point.