RD Timothy Liljegren - Ex-Rogle BK, SHL (2017, 17th, TOR) III

[TheFinnishTrap]

Well I listed 14, I'm sure there's a couple that I missed. The statement "could easily end up the best" applies to all of them, not just Liljegren, and I wouldn't put him in the top 10 most likely.

I guess it's just semantics, but I can't see there being 14 players that could easily become the best from this draft. Everyone already has a steep hill to climb to reach what Hischier is doing in the NHL, and even though it's very possible that 14 players from this draft reach that level, I have no doubt he will keep pushing forward as well. Betting on one player against the field may be too hard at this point, but I would quite confidently bet that one of Hischier, Pettersson, Heiskanen or Patrick will become the top player from this draft. Anyone outside that group would be a surprise of some level.

 

[Pyromaniac]

Looooool

I had this same reaction when you said you were a Marlies season ticket holder.

 

[4thline]

I guess it's just semantics, but I can't see there being 14 players that could easily become the best from this draft. Everyone already has a steep hill to climb to reach what Hischier is doing in the NHL, and even though it's very possible that 14 players from this draft reach that level, I have no doubt he will keep pushing forward as well. Betting on one player against the field may be too hard at this point, but I would quite confidently bet that one of Hischier, Pettersson, Heiskanen or Patrick will become the top player from this draft. Anyone outside that group would be a surprise of some level.

14 of them won't. Some will falter, some will succeed, a couple may exceed, Hischier may have peaked.
in March of 2013 you'd have said the same thing about Yakupov and Galchenyuk and dismissed Lindholm and Forsberg.

In a draft this volatile attacking a "could" about a prospect with top pair potential displays either prejudice or ignorance.

 

[LeafChief]

I had this same reaction when you said you were a Marlies season ticket holder.

Hahaha.

 

[TheFinnishTrap]

14 of them won't. Some will falter, some will succeed, a couple may exceed, Hischier may have peaked.
in March of 2013 you'd have said the same thing about Yakupov and Galchenyuk and dismissed Lindholm and Forsberg.

In a draft this volatile attacking a "could" about a prospect with top pair potential displays either prejudice or ignorance.

Truly amazing how terribly that top-4 turned out. But as I said, this is mostly semantics. Of course anyone from this draft could become the best, but I think there are players who have a clearly higher chance of doing that than others. That's just how I view this draft currently, and that view is subject to change as players develop or don't.

 

[newfy]

Well I listed 14, I'm sure there's a couple that I missed. The statement "could easily end up the best" applies to all of them, not just Liljegren, and I wouldn't put him in the top 10 most likely.

I guess the issue is semantics then. If its me, I dont say a guy could easily become the best player from this draft and then also say I most likely wouldnt put him in the top ten most likely to do it. I dont have an issue with saying that its a close field and things like that. But saying a guy could easily become the best player, makes it sound like a really good chance to be the best to probably 90% of people on here.But I actually agree with your premise its just worded differently than I think most on here would word it.

I think Liljegren has a good shot at being a top 4 dman but at this point but one year removed from the draft who has he really jumped that was picked ahead of him? I'm not a Tippett fan so I would probably say him. But everyone else is basically having really good seasons, theres even guys picked behind him who may be having better seasons (Tolvanen). I think thats where part of the issue comes from as well. Liljegren is having a good season but so is almost everyone picked ahead of him so people take issue with "he could easily be the best in this draft"

 

[nobody]

This thread is awesome. So many people getting worked up over me saying Lilly could end up as the best pick in 5 seasons. I'm sure you guys were out there slamming the likes of Karlsson, Barzal, Tarasenko etc saying how all those guys went exactly where they deserved and they were no where near the top picks in their respective drafts because those top picks were in the NHL producing respectable numbers in their D+1 seasons.

I never said other players weren't having fantastic seasons either and neither did I ever say that Lilly is having the best D+1 season. We're talking 5 years down the road. People gotta relax.

Also @Pavels Dog lilly making it into the SHL or AHL and being able to cut it with men at a very young age in itself is a testament to his abilities. I don't see too many low tier players accomplishing the same things at that age. Lilly played in the SHL at 16 and played fantastic in the league. He wasnt there for the sake of being there.
The second year he was back in the top Swedish league for another dozen games even though his play had significantly suffered after his illness. That's impressive. Lastly, if you actually watched lilly play in the AHL you would realize that Timmeh should probably have 5-6 more points than what he already has. And it's extremely rare for any player let alone an 18 year old defender to fluke into 15 points.

I know a ton of people rely on stats to gauge progress of players but that's not even remotely important for a player like lilly whose biggest concern isn't his offensive skills. It's his ability to play in his own end.

For those of us who watched the WJC you saw that in the round robin Sweden was heavily reliant on Daylin and Branstrom on the back end. But as the tourny went on and things got more serious, the coaches started to ride Lilly heavily. When games mattered most Timmeh showed up. Timmeh was trusted by the coaches to be the 2nd go to guy behind Dahlin. If we're going just by numbers, people would think Cale Makar dominated the tourny when in reality, team Canada tried their best not to over expose him and put him out in the most ideal situations. The guy who played the least amount of minutes on the backend for Canada must've been the best defender! Guys like Timmins were there just to kill time. Lol

 

[WetcoastOrca]

I guess the issue is semantics then. If its me, I dont say a guy could easily become the best player from this draft and then also say I most likely wouldnt put him in the top ten most likely to do it. I dont have an issue with saying that its a close field and things like that. But saying a guy could easily become the best player, makes it sound like a really good chance to be the best to probably 90% of people on here.But I actually agree with your premise its just worded differently than I think most on here would word it.

I think Liljegren has a good shot at being a top 4 dman but at this point but one year removed from the draft who has he really jumped that was picked ahead of him? I'm not a Tippett fan so I would probably say him. But everyone else is basically having really good seasons, theres even guys picked behind him who may be having better seasons (Tolvanen). I think thats where part of the issue comes from as well. Liljegren is having a good season but so is almost everyone picked ahead of him so people take issue with "he could easily be the best in this draft"

Great post.
Too many fans of any team just focus on their own prospects and say how they would go way higher in a redraft. The problem though is that they haven't really followed the prospects taken earlier and even a few taken later. In other words they don't have enough information to make an informed decision.
I had Liljigren around 15th in the draft and based on what I've seen in limited viewings of him and the other first round players I'd still have him around there.

 

[nobody]

Great post.
Too many fans of any team just focus on their own prospects and say how they would go way higher in a redraft. The problem though is that they haven't really followed the prospects taken earlier and even a few taken later. In other words they don't have enough information to make an informed decision.
I had Liljigren around 15th in the draft and based on what I've seen in limited viewings of him and the other first round players I'd still have him around there.

I had Liljigren at #1 and was beyond ecstatic to see him drop to us at #17 (before you go ape shit and pop an aneurism, I had him at #1 because he was the only guy in the draft that I wanted, I wouldn't have been upset if we drafted someone else, but I would've been livid if we had passed up on him because he is EXACTLY what the Leafs franchise needs). I don't think you're going to find a single Leafs fan who is going to complain about him dropping. If he doesn't drop, we don't get him. Plain and simple. You and a few other posters need to relax and learn to respect other peoples views. As crazy as they may seem to you.

 

[nobody]

I hope the Marlies keep Lilly and Borgman pairing together. I think Borgman is a very creative defender but he's also very responsible in his own zone. Lilly and Rosen is a fun pairing to watch but my god it keeps me on the edge of my seat because you never know when we're getting a two on one going the other way. I would even throw Lilly with Marincin even (even though he's playing as part of the shutdown pairing).

 

[TheFinnishTrap]

I had Liljigren at #1 and was beyond ecstatic to see him drop to us at #17 (before you go ape **** and pop an aneurism, I had him at #1 because he was the only guy in the draft that I wanted, I wouldn't have been upset if we drafted someone else, but I would've been livid if we had passed up on him because he is EXACTLY what the Leafs franchise needs). I don't think you're going to find a single Leafs fan who is going to complain about him dropping. If he doesn't drop, we don't get him. Plain and simple. You and a few other posters need to relax and learn to respect other peoples views. As crazy as they may seem to you.

Isn't challenging your views showing more respect than just letting you live in an echo chamber? Respecting other people's opinions doesn't mean they aren't allowed to be scrutinized.

 

[Cleatus]

Delusional imo. I can count at least 15-16 prospects just in the 1st round that have high, high upside and are progressing extremely well. See no reason why Lilly should be considered a safer bet, nor has he truly displayed that ”upside” much. 2 points in 7 WJC games? Stagnant SHL production? 15 points in 39 AHL games, with just 1 goal and slooooow production after his first 5 games?

You can talk about how he’s doing well compared to same age players in men’s leagues, which is true. But if you could bring up a 16 year old to the NHL, play him for 20-30 games and he lucks into a point he’d be top U18 NHL scorer of all time. Yet it would say nothing about him really.
Lilly playing in the SHL early, playing in the AHL early, doesn’t say a whole lot about his actual upside other than showing he can cut it in a men’s league. If he went to the WJCs and dominated, or showed a clear and obvious upward trajectory in his production at the pro-level there would be more ammunition to talk about how awesome his upside is.

Geez, so much salt from you and a few others here. Putting so much weight into WJC and U18 SHL numbers is almost as bad as people saying Liljegren should’ve gone 1OA. The fact that you also have to include a mightier than thou attitude in your post makes you much worse than 90% of the homerific posters you hate so much.

Things must be getting really rough in Detroit.

 

[WetcoastOrca]

I had Liljigren at #1 and was beyond ecstatic to see him drop to us at #17 (before you go ape **** and pop an aneurism, I had him at #1 because he was the only guy in the draft that I wanted, I wouldn't have been upset if we drafted someone else, but I would've been livid if we had passed up on him because he is EXACTLY what the Leafs franchise needs). I don't think you're going to find a single Leafs fan who is going to complain about him dropping. If he doesn't drop, we don't get him. Plain and simple. You and a few other posters need to relax and learn to respect other peoples views. As crazy as they may seem to you.

Settle down there. Nobody disrespected your view.
As for your statement that you're glad he dropped. I think he went about where he was expected.

 

[Lampedampe]

Geez, so much salt from you and a few others here. Putting so much weight into WJC and U18 SHL numbers is almost as bad as people saying Liljegren should’ve gone 1OA. The fact that you also have to include a mightier than thou attitude in your post makes you much worse than 90% of the homerific posters you hate so much.

Things must be getting really rough in Detroit.

Tbf i think i most people bringing up his u18 and WJC numbers are mostly pointing out that compared to his peers he hasn't really stood out enough to garner all the hype he's getting from these 'homerific posters', which is a pretty fair point tbh.

Why even bring detroit into this? that in itself seems increadibly salty.

 

[Cleatus]

Tbf i think i most people bringing up his u18 and WJC numbers are mostly pointing out that compared to his peers he hasn't really stood out enough to garner all the hype he's getting from these 'homerific posters', which is a pretty fair point tbh.

Why even bring detroit into this? that in itself seems increadibly salty.

I’ve been on this forum far too long to not see his angle; he’s only acting bitter about Liljegren because he hates the Leafs and their fans. I highly doubt he goes into other prospect threads with that attitude when people put their player on a mile high pedestal. Posters like him deserve shots like the one I made (no matter their fan base).

 

[firstemperor]

Tbf i think i most people bringing up his u18 and WJC numbers are mostly pointing out that compared to his peers he hasn't really stood out enough to garner all the hype he's getting from these 'homerific posters', which is a pretty fair point tbh.

It goes both ways, you have the same posters in here stat watching and pointing to his 2 point total in the WJC, despite him playing pretty promising in that tourney, particularly with his physicality defensively, and avoiding most other context. Not only did Sweden reach the finals, they pretty much hung in tight right until the dying minutes of the game in a tourney where Liljegren started getting more usage as the tourney went on.

He also didn't get the benefit of playing on a stacked pairing as in Dahlin-Brannstrom, his partner was Moverare and at times, the Swedish WJC coach seemingly put Boqvist as his partner for various stretches as well.

It's also news to me, 15 points in 39 AHL games for a 18 year old player making the culture change from Sweden->Canada, redefining his game defensively, and adjusting to the smaller ice (which historically, is a large adjustment for even the most elite defensive prospects coming over) can be viewed as a negative. Looking beyond his basic stats, he's been one of the best AHL d-men in terms of preventing goals, and generating them team-wide.

It's fine to think other prospects are equally promising, but that is mutually exclusive from Liljegren himself, being promising.

 

[Index]

He's going to be a good defenseman.

 

[HandshakeLineRespect]

All these Lilly haters are the same hot take artists that considered Kapanen, Dermott & Johnsson “spare parts” in trade proposals so I wouldn’t give too much weight to their opinions frankly speaking.

 

[Pavels Dog]

Geez, so much salt from you and a few others here. Putting so much weight into WJC and U18 SHL numbers is almost as bad as people saying Liljegren should’ve gone 1OA. The fact that you also have to include a mightier than thou attitude in your post makes you much worse than 90% of the homerific posters you hate so much.

Things must be getting really rough in Detroit.

Feel free to adress the actual arguments instead of just lashing out yelling "salt" or making lazy pokes at the state of an NHL team that is completely unrelated to the prospect.

For what it's worth, I'm not the one putting weight into U18 SHL numbers. I don't think making the SHL early is worth a whole lot unless there is continued progress.
The WJC isn't always meaningful either, but I think that was a place where he could have put his upside on full display and showcased that his low SHL/AHL production really is all about being a young guy in a men's league. But 2 points in 7 games, anyway you cut it, isn't very impressive. Erik Karlsson, who was built like a stick when he was drafted and started playing against men in his d+1 year, dominated at the WJCs which showed that his low SHL production was not a sign of his full potential. Lilly also had low production at the U18s last year, and when you look a little closer at his AHL production he is not showing signs that he is adapting to the league and getting better, rather his production has declined throughout the season (10 points first 20GP, 5pts last 20GP, no goals since the second game of the season).

All in all I see quite a few warning signs there. To me he has not removed pre-draft concerns at all. It's not hate, it's not salt, it's my take on what I think is one of the most interesting prospects to follow from the '17 draft (due to his high profile and how far he fell).

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

Feel free to adress the actual arguments instead of just lashing out yelling "salt" or making lazy pokes at the state of an NHL team that is completely unrelated to the prospect.

For what it's worth, I'm not the one putting weight into U18 SHL numbers. I don't think making the SHL early is worth a whole lot unless there is continued progress.
The WJC isn't always meaningful either, but I think that was a place where he could have put his upside on full display and showcased that his low SHL/AHL production really is all about being a young guy in a men's league. But 2 points in 7 games, anyway you cut it, isn't very impressive. Erik Karlsson, who was built like a stick when he was drafted and started playing against men in his d+1 year, dominated at the WJCs which showed that his low SHL production was not a sign of his full potential. Lilly also had low production at the U18s last year, and when you look a little closer at his AHL production he is not showing signs that he is adapting to the league and getting better, rather his production has declined throughout the season (10 points first 20GP, 5pts last 20GP, no goals since the second game of the season).

All in all I see quite a few warning signs there. To me he has not removed pre-draft concerns at all. It's not hate, it's not salt, it's my take on what I think is one of the most interesting prospects to follow from the '17 draft (due to his high profile and how far he fell).

He fell because he had Mono, but I am not surprised you ignored that because it doesn't fit your narrative

 

[AppsSyl]

Feel free to adress the actual arguments instead of just lashing out yelling "salt" or making lazy pokes at the state of an NHL team that is completely unrelated to the prospect.

For what it's worth, I'm not the one putting weight into U18 SHL numbers. I don't think making the SHL early is worth a whole lot unless there is continued progress.
The WJC isn't always meaningful either, but I think that was a place where he could have put his upside on full display and showcased that his low SHL/AHL production really is all about being a young guy in a men's league. But 2 points in 7 games, anyway you cut it, isn't very impressive. Erik Karlsson, who was built like a stick when he was drafted and started playing against men in his d+1 year, dominated at the WJCs which showed that his low SHL production was not a sign of his full potential. Lilly also had low production at the U18s last year, and when you look a little closer at his AHL production he is not showing signs that he is adapting to the league and getting better, rather his production has declined throughout the season (10 points first 20GP, 5pts last 20GP, no goals since the second game of the season).

All in all I see quite a few warning signs there. To me he has not removed pre-draft concerns at all. It's not hate, it's not salt, it's my take on what I think is one of the most interesting prospects to follow from the '17 draft (due to his high profile and how far he fell).

Since you seem such an expert on all things Liljegren, please enlighten us with how many Marlies games you have actually watched this season to come to your conclusions. My guess is zero. It is almost like deep down you wished your team picked him, and you are dissatisfied with your team's choice with how often you feel the need to be the fun police in here and tear the kid down every time someone says something positive about him.
You should go read the Marner and Nylander threads after they were drafted, but before they were with the Leafs. There were a lot of posters like you tearing them down all the time. How did that turn out?

 

[Pavels Dog]

He fell because he had Mono, but I am not surprised you ignored that because it doesn't fit your narrative

If that was the only reason he fell, he should be performing like a top 3 pick right now. Imo he's not.

Since you seem such an expert on all things Liljegren, please enlighten us with how many Marlies games you have actually watched this season to come to your conclusions. My guess is zero. It is almost like deep down you wished your team picked him, and you are dissatisfied with your team's choice with how often you feel the need to be the fun police in here and tear the kid down every time someone says something positive about him.
You should go read the Marner and Nylander threads after they were drafted, but before they were with the Leafs. There were a lot of posters like you tearing them down all the time. How did that turn out?

Whatever dude. I guess no one one hfboards ever base their opinions on prospects mostly on stats? I'm sure anyone who says he could easily turn out to be the best player of the draft has watched dozens of games with every prospects from the '17 draft? How often do you watch Brannstrom's SHL games? How often do you watch Heiskanen in Liiga? Makar in the NCAA?
Production is a pretty big part of judging prospects at this point in their development. The WJC is a big stage where they are judged. If Liljegren plays great defensively it still isn't enough to jump him upwards in a re-draft over players that are both playing great AND producing. Note that I've never said Liljegren has been playing bad, I'm not bashing his defensive game or IQ. I just don't feel the numbers support the hype.

Marner and Nylander are nothing like Liljegren in any way. I don't know who were tearing them down, but both had vastly more impressive d+1 seasons than Liljegren is having and neither had the kind of concerns Lilly had that caused him to fall. You, and some others, seem insistant on making it an issue of fanbases/teams rather than actually discussing the prospect at hand. Of course Liljegren can't be questioned in any way because someone questioned Nylander and he turned out well? Like... what?

Oh, and if I was dissatisified with my team's pick, I'd definitely take Vilardi, Necas, Chytil, Thomas, Tolvanen and maybe Brannstrom over Lilly.

 

[TheBeastCoast]

If that was the only reason he fell, he should be performing like a top 3 pick right now. Imo he's not.

Whatever dude. I guess no one one hfboards ever base their opinions on prospects mostly on stats? I'm sure anyone who says he could easily turn out to be the best player of the draft has watched dozens of games with every prospects from the '17 draft? How often do you watch Brannstrom's SHL games? How often do you watch Heiskanen in Liiga? Makar in the NCAA?
Production is a pretty big part of judging prospects at this point in their development. The WJC is a big stage where they are judged. If Liljegren plays great defensively it still isn't enough to jump him upwards in a re-draft over players that are both playing great AND producing. Note that I've never said Liljegren has been playing bad, I'm not bashing his defensive game or IQ. I just don't feel the numbers support the hype.

Marner and Nylander are nothing like Liljegren in any way. I don't know who were tearing them down, but both had vastly more impressive d+1 seasons than Liljegren is having and neither had the kind of concerns Lilly had that caused him to fall. You, and some others, seem insistant on making it an issue of fanbases/teams rather than actually discussing the prospect at hand. Of course Liljegren can't be questioned in any way because someone questioned Nylander and he turned out well? Like... what?

Oh, and if I was dissatisified with my team's pick, I'd definitely take Vilardi, Necas, Chytil, Thomas, Tolvanen and maybe Brannstrom over Lilly.

I think everybody is honestly getting a little carried away. Is it a bit unreasonable for you to be making so many claims about Liljegren without having actually watched him play other then the WJC? I would say so. Personally and I will admit I don't go around watching a bunch of European prospects play that aren't part of the Leafs organization but I also don't go around and post like I know exactly what they are going to be in their threads either. At the same time I think people do need to cool it with the whole Liljegren will be the best defensemen from the draft talk. It is obviously premature at this point and plenty of other players have had great D+1 years. I do kind of wish that some Leaf fans could have less of an outward view of things and just look at how he is playing and if he is playing well and progressing how we hoped then great....if that means he ends up 1st, 10th or 30th in a redraft....who cares if he is the player we were hoping for. I do think that you stat scouting an 18 year old defensemen in the 2nd or 3rd toughest pro league in the world is pretty disingenuous. At the end of the day this season was all just building a base for Liljegren the real key is going to be how his development progresses next year and the year after when they start letting him loose a bit more after having spent this year building him up physically and defensively.

 

[LeafChief]

@Pavels Dog

 

[Pyromaniac]

The last 4 pages of BS was started by this post...

Looking very sharp recently, he has been an absolute force on the marlies. I think that his skill combined with his silky smooth skating, and great first pass and work ethic, he could easily end up being the best player in this draft within 5 years.

This poster joined a couple of days ago and has been going around this forum trying to antagonize posters. So thanks a lot to everyone who contributed to this successful troll-job.