RD Timothy Liljegren - Ex-Rogle BK, SHL (2017, 17th, TOR) III

[Cleatus]

Feel free to adress the actual arguments instead of just lashing out yelling "salt" or making lazy pokes at the state of an NHL team that is completely unrelated to the prospect.

For what it's worth, I'm not the one putting weight into U18 SHL numbers. I don't think making the SHL early is worth a whole lot unless there is continued progress.
The WJC isn't always meaningful either, but I think that was a place where he could have put his upside on full display and showcased that his low SHL/AHL production really is all about being a young guy in a men's league. But 2 points in 7 games, anyway you cut it, isn't very impressive. Erik Karlsson, who was built like a stick when he was drafted and started playing against men in his d+1 year, dominated at the WJCs which showed that his low SHL production was not a sign of his full potential. Lilly also had low production at the U18s last year, and when you look a little closer at his AHL production he is not showing signs that he is adapting to the league and getting better, rather his production has declined throughout the season (10 points first 20GP, 5pts last 20GP, no goals since the second game of the season).

All in all I see quite a few warning signs there. To me he has not removed pre-draft concerns at all. It's not hate, it's not salt, it's my take on what I think is one of the most interesting prospects to follow from the '17 draft (due to his high profile and how far he fell).

I won’t argue because I have no idea how this kid is gonna turn out. You don’t either.

All I know is he has very high potential and that I’m very excited to see what he can do when he reaches the NHL. If he lives up to that potential, the Leafs defence looks a lot better in a few years. If he doesn’t, it’s only a 17th overall pick that was sacrificed, so not that big of a deal.

 

[Cleatus]

If that was the only reason he fell, he should be performing like a top 3 pick right now. Imo he's not.

Whatever dude. I guess no one one hfboards ever base their opinions on prospects mostly on stats? I'm sure anyone who says he could easily turn out to be the best player of the draft has watched dozens of games with every prospects from the '17 draft? How often do you watch Brannstrom's SHL games? How often do you watch Heiskanen in Liiga? Makar in the NCAA?
Production is a pretty big part of judging prospects at this point in their development. The WJC is a big stage where they are judged. If Liljegren plays great defensively it still isn't enough to jump him upwards in a re-draft over players that are both playing great AND producing. Note that I've never said Liljegren has been playing bad, I'm not bashing his defensive game or IQ. I just don't feel the numbers support the hype.

Marner and Nylander are nothing like Liljegren in any way. I don't know who were tearing them down, but both had vastly more impressive d+1 seasons than Liljegren is having and neither had the kind of concerns Lilly had that caused him to fall. You, and some others, seem insistant on making it an issue of fanbases/teams rather than actually discussing the prospect at hand. Of course Liljegren can't be questioned in any way because someone questioned Nylander and he turned out well? Like... what?

Oh, and if I was dissatisified with my team's pick, I'd definitely take Vilardi, Necas, Chytil, Thomas, Tolvanen and maybe Brannstrom over Lilly.

And it’s posts like this that you and other Leaf haters make that make you look just as bad as the “Liljegren 1OA” types. You risk looking like a complete tool if Liljegren pans out, just as the 1OA types will if he doesn’t.

And if you’ve been a member of this forum for any longer than 2 months, you’d know how much hate Marner and Nylander have gotten here (both have been labelled Sam Gagner 2.0 since they were drafted), so don’t act like you haven’t seen it.

This is actually another way of telling how good a Leafs prospect/player is; the amount of hate he gets from opposing fans on HFboards. For the most part, Leafs fans have been correct about our prospects lately, so I don’t know, maybe we’re on to something for once.

 

[Pi]

And it’s posts like this that you and other Leaf haters make that make you look just as bad as the “Liljegren 1OA” types. You risk looking like a complete tool if Liljegren pans out, just as the 1OA types will if he doesn’t.

And if you’ve been a member of this forum for any longer than 2 months, you’d know how much hate Marner and Nylander have gotten here (both have been labelled Sam Gagner 2.0 since they were drafted), so don’t act like you haven’t seen it.

This is actually another way of telling how good a Leafs prospect/player is; the amount of hate he gets from opposing fans on HFboards. For the most part, Leafs fans have been correct about our prospects lately, so I don’t know, maybe we’re on to something for once.

I wouldn’t worry about Liljegren. Leafs management were unwilling to part with him during the deadline in any deal because they believe he’s a future top pairing D (according to the Atheltic). He’s playing hard minutes down with the Marlies and excelling in them and rounding out his game.

Leafs thought very highly of Dermott as well and look where he is now.

Leafs do great when they pick for talent. Kadri, Rielly, Nylander, Marner, Dermott etc. They suck when they pick for need like the previous management did at times with Tyler Biggs and Frederik Gauthier, Brad Ross types.

 

[Frolov 6'3]

I wouldn’t worry about Liljegren. Leafs management were unwilling to part with him during the deadline in any deal because they believe he’s a future top pairing D (according to the Atheltic). He’s playing hard minutes down with the Marlies and excelling in them and rounding out his game.

Leafs thought very highly of Dermott as well and look where he is now.

Leafs do great when they pick for talent. Kadri, Rielly, Nylander, Marner, Dermott etc. They suck when they pick for need like the previous management did at times with Tyler Biggs and Frederik Gauthier, Brad Ross types.

That doesnt say much. How often do we see a trade deadline deal with a top20 pick from a year before included.

 

[Pi]

That doesnt say much. How often do we see a trade deadline deal with a top20 pick from a year before included.

It does say a lot when they wouldn’t have traded him in any package even if brought a guy like McDonagh to the Leafs.

Leafs kicked tires on McDonagh but they apparently wanted Liljegren and much more and they politely declined. No prospect that Tampa traded was as good as Liljegren.

 

[Gamble9]

In all seriousness this whole noone knows how hes going to turn out stuff being put out there by fans that dont watch the games is really eritating if you dont watch the player dont post let people who watch and know about the player discuss the player we have fans who watch him that think highly of him those who dont like him and people like me who see him as a top 4 type guy with the tools to be more if things go very well we dont need people who just stat watch telling us what he is when they have no idea

 

[biotk]

Feel free to adress the actual arguments instead of just lashing out yelling "salt" or making lazy pokes at the state of an NHL team that is completely unrelated to the prospect.

For what it's worth, I'm not the one putting weight into U18 SHL numbers. I don't think making the SHL early is worth a whole lot unless there is continued progress.
The WJC isn't always meaningful either, but I think that was a place where he could have put his upside on full display and showcased that his low SHL/AHL production really is all about being a young guy in a men's league. But 2 points in 7 games, anyway you cut it, isn't very impressive. Erik Karlsson, who was built like a stick when he was drafted and started playing against men in his d+1 year, dominated at the WJCs which showed that his low SHL production was not a sign of his full potential. Lilly also had low production at the U18s last year, and when you look a little closer at his AHL production he is not showing signs that he is adapting to the league and getting better, rather his production has declined throughout the season (10 points first 20GP, 5pts last 20GP, no goals since the second game of the season).

All in all I see quite a few warning signs there. To me he has not removed pre-draft concerns at all. It's not hate, it's not salt, it's my take on what I think is one of the most interesting prospects to follow from the '17 draft (due to his high profile and how far he fell).

This is why I only comment on prospects who I actually watch (which is not many), and don't really give a damn about stat watching.

Karlsson had a great world junior, but so did Liljegren. They had completely different roles and filled those well. In the case of Liljegren I was happy that he had the role he had - as a steady presence on the backend, while the other line of Dahlin, Brannstrom and Sweden's 3 big forwards were relied on for point production.

Karlsson played at a time when there were many weak teams in the tournament who Canada and Sweden would destroy. Kazakhstan was outscored 60-4 for instance. Germany and Latvia were brutal. If you wonder how Forsberg put up so many points at the WJCs one year, that is why. So Karlsson beating up on Latvia in a 10-1 win doesn't really say much.

Karlsson was also the D who was getting all the PP time when he played. This year that was Dahlin, who got about 90% of the PP time in the early games. This made sense as Sweden was showcasing Dahlin, and him going #1 will be a great thing for Swedish hockey. But Sweden didn't have much depth up front, so both on the PP and at ES there was really on one line that offensive force. Liljegren wasn't deployed in the same way.

Finally, secondary assists are not recorded the same. Here is Karlsson getting a secondary assist against Slovakia (starting about 23 seconds in) on the PP. He is behind his own net passes the puck about 6 inches to Backlund who passes to Moller who gives it right Backlund who skates it the rest of the way and scores. Karlsson was the third last Swede to touch the puck and like in the NHL he gets the secondary assist even though there was a give and go (making him the fourth last Swedish touch Backlund-Moller-Backlund-Karlsson). For the stat watchers that was a great play from Karlsson. For the game watchers you would barely know he was on the ice for that play.

Compared to this non-secondary assist for Liljegren against the US (starting about 23 seconds in). Liljegren has an amazing stretch pass to Andersson at the far blueline who passes it to Karlstrom who gives it right back for the easy goal. 3rd last Swede to touch the puck, forth last touch. No secondary assist. No recognition from the stat watchers. A lot of recognition was the game watchers. With those beautiful stretch passes Liljegren was denied secondary assists twice in the summer showcase and twice in the WJC.

I don't give a damn about points. I watched Karlsson at the WJC. He was great. I watched Liljegren at the WJC and he was great. Karlsson was flashier offensively. Liljegren played a game that was more transferable to the NHL.

As to the lack of points in the AHL, and the decline in points in the second half. Don't care. I have watched him play in the AHL quite a bit. He has looked good every game I been there for. The main thing I was looking for when I watched him early on was his defensive play, which has looked really good every time I watched him. Since then I have been looking for his physical game to improve, and it has, although not enough yet. Finally, his offensive game has been strong every game I have watched him play. That hasn't always resulted in points. Don't care. Dermott only put up 5 points in his 18 games in the AHL this year. Watching him there should have been more, but he was simply getting unlucky. Then he got 13 points in 10 games. Did he suddenly go from bad to good? No. He went from unlucky to lucky. The Leafs organization cares about a lot of things when it comes to Liljegren's performance this year, but how many points Liljegren puts up this year is not one of them. Just like they didn't care about how many points Rielly put up for the Leafs last year.

 

[67Cup]

I saw Liljegren play twice in the last ten days. I’m happy. In one of those games he notched two assists. Great, sure, but I was more impressed by his all round play and by little things like neatly dumping the puck into the corner rather than trying to force a point shot through an oncoming forward. Just little things but they showed a maturing game.

He is contributing regularly on the top team in the AHL. Not bad.

By the way, biotk is right about his play in the World Juniors.

 

[Frolov 6'3]

It does say a lot when they wouldn’t have traded him in any package even if brought a guy like McDonagh to the Leafs.

Leafs kicked tires on McDonagh but they apparently wanted Liljegren and much more and they politely declined. No prospect that Tampa traded was as good as Liljegren.

All fan talk.

 

[LeafChief]

All fan talk.

You obviously have a vendetta against this prospect and the team of this prospect.

Why do you continue to post here? You've made your point.

In no way am I saying that you aren't allowed to post here or that you shouldn't post here but aren't you tired of this shtick? Nobody agrees with you.

 

[TDK67]

This is why I only comment on prospects who I actually watch (which is not many), and don't really give a damn about stat watching.

Karlsson had a great world junior, but so did Liljegren. They had completely different roles and filled those well. In the case of Liljegren I was happy that he had the role he had - as a steady presence on the backend, while the other line of Dahlin, Brannstrom and Sweden's 3 big forwards were relied on for point production.

Karlsson played at a time when there were many weak teams in the tournament who Canada and Sweden would destroy. Kazakhstan was outscored 60-4 for instance. Germany and Latvia were brutal. If you wonder how Forsberg put up so many points at the WJCs one year, that is why. So Karlsson beating up on Latvia in a 10-1 win doesn't really say much.

Karlsson was also the D who was getting all the PP time when he played. This year that was Dahlin, who got about 90% of the PP time in the early games. This made sense as Sweden was showcasing Dahlin, and him going #1 will be a great thing for Swedish hockey. But Sweden didn't have much depth up front, so both on the PP and at ES there was really on one line that offensive force. Liljegren wasn't deployed in the same way.

Finally, secondary assists are not recorded the same. Here is Karlsson getting a secondary assist against Slovakia (starting about 23 seconds in) on the PP. He is behind his own net passes the puck about 6 inches to Backlund who passes to Moller who gives it right Backlund who skates it the rest of the way and scores. Karlsson was the third last Swede to touch the puck and like in the NHL he gets the secondary assist even though there was a give and go (making him the fourth last Swedish touch Backlund-Moller-Backlund-Karlsson). For the stat watchers that was a great play from Karlsson. For the game watchers you would barely know he was on the ice for that play.

Compared to this non-secondary assist for Liljegren against the US (starting about 23 seconds in). Liljegren has an amazing stretch pass to Andersson at the far blueline who passes it to Karlstrom who gives it right back for the easy goal. 3rd last Swede to touch the puck, forth last touch. No secondary assist. No recognition from the stat watchers. A lot of recognition was the game watchers. With those beautiful stretch passes Liljegren was denied secondary assists twice in the summer showcase and twice in the WJC.

I don't give a damn about points. I watched Karlsson at the WJC. He was great. I watched Liljegren at the WJC and he was great. Karlsson was flashier offensively. Liljegren played a game that was more transferable to the NHL.

As to the lack of points in the AHL, and the decline in points in the second half. Don't care. I have watched him play in the AHL quite a bit. He has looked good every game I been there for. The main thing I was looking for when I watched him early on was his defensive play, which has looked really good every time I watched him. Since then I have been looking for his physical game to improve, and it has, although not enough yet. Finally, his offensive game has been strong every game I have watched him play. That hasn't always resulted in points. Don't care. Dermott only put up 5 points in his 18 games in the AHL this year. Watching him there should have been more, but he was simply getting unlucky. Then he got 13 points in 10 games. Did he suddenly go from bad to good? No. He went from unlucky to lucky. The Leafs organization cares about a lot of things when it comes to Liljegren's performance this year, but how many points Liljegren puts up this year is not one of them. Just like they didn't care about how many points Rielly put up for the Leafs last year.

Its posts like these that keep me coming back to read HFboards no matter how toxic or troll-heavy the majority of threads are.

Amazing insight (as usual), biotk. Really appreciate your commenting on this site.

 

[stickty111]

Lilly has earsed the pre draft concerns that he had. He has been very good in the AHL offensively, defensively, and in terms of decision making. Its not "wow Leafs fans being homers again" which is kind of typical response Leafs fan when they say something good about anything Leafs related, its just a fact how well Lilly has adjusted.
There arent many red flags this season for Lilly, and those concerns he had pre draft seem to have been eliminated.

 

[Lemontree]

He has had a really good rookie season in the AHL this year. I would have guessed before the season started that the points might be a tad bit higher but he would struggle with 5 on 5 play. He has been very solid so far and is getting noticeably better each time I have a chance to catch a Marlies game. Very positive season and right now people who watch him are comfortable to project him as a top 4 Dman with the chance to develop into a potential top pairing D men.

 

[Morbo]

All fan talk.

including yours.

 

[Cleatus]

Its posts like these that keep me coming back to read HFboards no matter how toxic or troll-heavy the majority of threads are.

Amazing insight (as usual), biotk. Really appreciate your commenting on this site.

Posts like his are also why I like going on this site. Some very informative posters here if you look past all the trash.

 

[Frolov 6'3]

including yours.

We rarely see a trade deadline deal with a top 20 pick from a year before included. How is that fantalk.

Supposed trade deadline deals. Thats fantalk.

The last pages are filled with "I dont care about facts/different input but just do not like what you are saying, so you dont know what you are talking about it'.' people.

Pavels Dog makes some interesting comments too but gets ridiculed.

 

[leafsfan2point0]

Posts like his are also why I like going on this site. Some very informative posters here if you look past all the trash.

Agreed. Leaf threads are definitely the hardest to find good info on our prospects. Especially difficult when trolls come in ex. Kadri, Marner, Nylander etc.

But when you look past the garbage posters it’s nice to find some intelligent posts from people without an agenda

 

[Frolov 6'3]

If coming in here with your pals to tell us how terrible our prospect is gets you through your day, more power to you.

There's a whole grey area between telling you how terrible your prospect is and not jumping on the bandwagon.

You should only post on the Leafs board if you cant handle it. There you wont face much negativity and thats for you the place to be.

 

[WetcoastOrca]

Performing about how a mid first round pick should be.
Pretty much on track.
Too many extreme views from both sides, imo.

 

[4thline]

Performing about how a mid first round pick should be.
Pretty much on track.
Too many extreme views from both sides, imo.

Hampus Lindholm. 6th overall, 11 points 44 games
Morgan Rielly. 5th overall, 3 points 14 games
Zach Werenski 8th overall, 1 point 7 games
Josh Morissey 13th overall, 1 point 8 games
Darnell Nurse 7th overall, 1 point 4 games

This isn't some hyperbolic statement guaranteeing that he's a franchise player based on outproducing these players, just an illustration that merely "belonging" and being capable at the AHL level as a U19 defender is par for the course for a top 10 pick.

 

[4thline]

It's funny, there's currently a F prospect from the 20's raising up into the top 10, even top 5 in people's re drafts, fans of the draft team throwing out comparisons to E. Staal, Malkin light..

These hero's of realism are no where to found, certainly not pointing out that he got picked in the 20's for a reason, or that 4 points in 7 games isn't that impressive of a WJC, or that outside of hot start (9 points in his first 6 games) his AHL production (22 in 39) hasn't been that impressive, what with how few 18 year olds there have been in the AHL and all.

 

[biotk]

Its posts like these that keep me coming back to read HFboards no matter how toxic or troll-heavy the majority of threads are.

Amazing insight (as usual), biotk. Really appreciate your commenting on this site.

Thank you. I admit to being a Liljegren fan, and I wanted Buffalo to draft him 8OA (although I did not think that Mittelstadt would still be available), while Toronto's 17OA was my second choice (but I thought there was zero chance he would still be available). I love the way he plays and I have watched him play as much as I can, but I feel that my assessment is in line with the likes of Pronman and Wheeler (both with the athletic) who I respect when it comes to assessing prospects.

But we all (I assume) fall for stat watching more than we should. A year ago some fans were saying that Dermott was way ahead of Nielsen while others were saying they were close and maybe, just maybe, Nielsen had pulled ahead. I had never watched either, but if you looked at the stats it appeared as though the first group was probably wrong and the second group was probably right: that Nielsen was not behind Dermott, and was actually pretty damn good - really good numbers in the AHL, really big body, and when at looked at eliteprospect it implied pretty strongly that questions about his skating were overblown. Then I watched the two play, and you could seen immediately that Dermott was the real deal, knocking on the NHL's door and that Nielsen's skating and defensive play were both a problem at the AHL level (while his shooting and puck handling skills were assets, they were not enough to overcome his deficiencies). It is true that that first game I watched them could have been an anomaly (it was not), but it told me a lot more than endlessly looking at the stats could. And I love stats. But stats can only assist in an assessment of what is going on.

 

[Pavels Dog]

but I also don't go around and post like I know exactly what they are going to be in their threads either.

Haven't said once that I know what he's going to be. I don't know what even one player from the '17 draft will be, it's way too early to say. But I apologize if responding to people who talked as if he's a safe bet to be one of the top players from the draft made it sound like I think he's a safe bet to not be.

This is why I only comment on prospects who I actually watch (which is not many), and don't really give a damn about stat watching.

Karlsson had a great world junior, but so did Liljegren. They had completely different roles and filled those well. In the case of Liljegren I was happy that he had the role he had - as a steady presence on the backend, while the other line of Dahlin, Brannstrom and Sweden's 3 big forwards were relied on for point production.

Karlsson played at a time when there were many weak teams in the tournament who Canada and Sweden would destroy. Kazakhstan was outscored 60-4 for instance. Germany and Latvia were brutal. If you wonder how Forsberg put up so many points at the WJCs one year, that is why. So Karlsson beating up on Latvia in a 10-1 win doesn't really say much.

Karlsson was also the D who was getting all the PP time when he played. This year that was Dahlin, who got about 90% of the PP time in the early games. This made sense as Sweden was showcasing Dahlin, and him going #1 will be a great thing for Swedish hockey. But Sweden didn't have much depth up front, so both on the PP and at ES there was really on one line that offensive force. Liljegren wasn't deployed in the same way.

Finally, secondary assists are not recorded the same. Here is Karlsson getting a secondary assist against Slovakia (starting about 23 seconds in) on the PP. He is behind his own net passes the puck about 6 inches to Backlund who passes to Moller who gives it right Backlund who skates it the rest of the way and scores. Karlsson was the third last Swede to touch the puck and like in the NHL he gets the secondary assist even though there was a give and go (making him the fourth last Swedish touch Backlund-Moller-Backlund-Karlsson). For the stat watchers that was a great play from Karlsson. For the game watchers you would barely know he was on the ice for that play.

Compared to this non-secondary assist for Liljegren against the US (starting about 23 seconds in). Liljegren has an amazing stretch pass to Andersson at the far blueline who passes it to Karlstrom who gives it right back for the easy goal. 3rd last Swede to touch the puck, forth last touch. No secondary assist. No recognition from the stat watchers. A lot of recognition was the game watchers. With those beautiful stretch passes Liljegren was denied secondary assists twice in the summer showcase and twice in the WJC.

I don't give a damn about points. I watched Karlsson at the WJC. He was great. I watched Liljegren at the WJC and he was great. Karlsson was flashier offensively. Liljegren played a game that was more transferable to the NHL.

As to the lack of points in the AHL, and the decline in points in the second half. Don't care. I have watched him play in the AHL quite a bit. He has looked good every game I been there for. The main thing I was looking for when I watched him early on was his defensive play, which has looked really good every time I watched him. Since then I have been looking for his physical game to improve, and it has, although not enough yet. Finally, his offensive game has been strong every game I have watched him play. That hasn't always resulted in points. Don't care. Dermott only put up 5 points in his 18 games in the AHL this year. Watching him there should have been more, but he was simply getting unlucky. Then he got 13 points in 10 games. Did he suddenly go from bad to good? No. He went from unlucky to lucky. The Leafs organization cares about a lot of things when it comes to Liljegren's performance this year, but how many points Liljegren puts up this year is not one of them. Just like they didn't care about how many points Rielly put up for the Leafs last year.

Good post. Won't go into detail, I get the feeling discussion on Liljegren is not wanted in this thread. He's an interesting prospect though, we'll see what happens. Carry on.

 

[nobody]

For the remaining Leafs fan in here. I don't think many if any of us give a crap about where Lilly would go in a redraft. He's ours anf we are beyond happy he dropped to us.

Secondly, no one is asking anyone to hop on the lilly bandwagon. Leafs fans see him progressing extremely well and are ecstatic about his progress. We all feel like he's on the path to becoming a top 4 and maybe even a potential top pairing guy. His defence has improved in quantum leaps from the beginning of the year and his offensive numbers top the charts when compared to high picks playing in the AHL at the same age.

 

[4thline]

For the remaining Leafs fan in here. I don't think many if any of us give a crap about where Lilly would go in a redraft. He's ours anf we are beyond happy he dropped to us.

Secondly, no one is asking anyone to hop on the lilly bandwagon. Leafs fans see him progressing extremely well and are ecstatic about his progress. We all feel like he's on the path to becoming a top 4 and maybe even a potential top pairing guy. His defence has improved in quantum leaps from the beginning of the year and his offensive numbers top the charts when compared to high picks playing in the AHL at the same age.

They way I look at prospects is by trying to identify two levels of upside- realistic projection/ expectation (the level of player that it will be disappointing if they do not reach, and realistic hope (the best outcome that can justified by their performance, growth as a player, and skillset. Off course keeping in mind that any player can bust completely. Only the very best prospects should have higher expectations than being a top 9 forward, 6 defenseman, and I believe Liljegren qualifies. I see him as

Realistic Expectation- Top 4 D in the mold of a more physical Gardiner/Daley hybrid (effective defensively through mobility and great transition play

Realistic Hope-offensive leaning top pair d like Yandle/Klingberg/Rielly (I see him as a similar quality prospect as Rielly)

Statements like "could easily be the best" come into play with that realistic hope, because given that (IMO) a lot of people don't see that franchise type top 5-10 player in the league coming out of this draft him reaching that "realistic hope" level would likely put him in the conversation.

And yeah, really the only spot I care about what other fans think is when they come in shouting down the above with nothing but draft position (he fell for a reason/ he went where he should of blah blah blah revisionist history nonsense for weak minded sheep) or his lack of WJC points. And that he's the only prospect that they care to get involved with in that manner.