- Apr 27, 2005
- 36,385
- 36,570
I didn't realize how much he's struggled since the end of last year. Dating back to April 7, he's dead last in xG% among players with>200 5v5 mins (and yea @Star Platinum Goodrow is right behind him lol):
He's also last in xGA/60 and rel xGA/60. His expected goal differential per 60 is a whopping -2.16. Mancini and Goodrow are next at -1.50 and -1.49.
In those 17 games, Nemec's single game high xG% is 43.7%, and he only broke 40% one other time in those 17 games:
That has to be nearing a record for consecutive games with sub 45% xG numbers.
He should get some slack based on his return from injury and partial training camp, but honestly his slide really began in early to mid March of last season and has only accelerated from there.
It's crazy how he was so solid for his first 30-40 games of his career only for his game to completely fall apart (most notably, his defensive game). He was so much more conservative early on, but became increasingly reckless looking for offense as his rookie year progressed. And it seems he's shown no interest in fixing that trend, as those habits have only gotten worse. I've never seen an NHL defenseman get caught up ice so often for really no good reason - he's created at least 2-3 odd man opportunities for the opponent every game this year.
If he could just focus on being a defensive defenseman, I think he could still have a very successful career. But he has to realize that he's just not a good enough skater or skilled enough playmaker/shooter to be a productive OFD in this league. The sooner he accepts that, the sooner he can focus on becoming a top 4 shutdown D (who can maybe QB a 2nd unit). That's likely his only path to becoming a long term NHLer at this point.
Adam Larsson had to learn the same lesson, and eventually transformed into one of the best defensive dmen in the league. Nemec could absolutely develop into a poor man's Larsson if he changes his mindset. Their trajectories are remarkably similar, they were both drafted by NJ as the first dman taken in their drafts. Both were thought to have a fair amount of offensive upside, with decent skating but high all around IQ.
Larsson peaked as a devil in 2015-16, he was a rock that year despite low point totals. Then he went on the be a great shutdown defender in Edmonton. He only averaged 17 points per 82 games from 2015-2021, but he was widely regarded as a top pairing dman.
If I was Simon Nemec, I'd be badgering Larsson for advice non-stop.
He's also last in xGA/60 and rel xGA/60. His expected goal differential per 60 is a whopping -2.16. Mancini and Goodrow are next at -1.50 and -1.49.
In those 17 games, Nemec's single game high xG% is 43.7%, and he only broke 40% one other time in those 17 games:
That has to be nearing a record for consecutive games with sub 45% xG numbers.
He should get some slack based on his return from injury and partial training camp, but honestly his slide really began in early to mid March of last season and has only accelerated from there.
It's crazy how he was so solid for his first 30-40 games of his career only for his game to completely fall apart (most notably, his defensive game). He was so much more conservative early on, but became increasingly reckless looking for offense as his rookie year progressed. And it seems he's shown no interest in fixing that trend, as those habits have only gotten worse. I've never seen an NHL defenseman get caught up ice so often for really no good reason - he's created at least 2-3 odd man opportunities for the opponent every game this year.
If he could just focus on being a defensive defenseman, I think he could still have a very successful career. But he has to realize that he's just not a good enough skater or skilled enough playmaker/shooter to be a productive OFD in this league. The sooner he accepts that, the sooner he can focus on becoming a top 4 shutdown D (who can maybe QB a 2nd unit). That's likely his only path to becoming a long term NHLer at this point.
Adam Larsson had to learn the same lesson, and eventually transformed into one of the best defensive dmen in the league. Nemec could absolutely develop into a poor man's Larsson if he changes his mindset. Their trajectories are remarkably similar, they were both drafted by NJ as the first dman taken in their drafts. Both were thought to have a fair amount of offensive upside, with decent skating but high all around IQ.
Larsson peaked as a devil in 2015-16, he was a rock that year despite low point totals. Then he went on the be a great shutdown defender in Edmonton. He only averaged 17 points per 82 games from 2015-2021, but he was widely regarded as a top pairing dman.
If I was Simon Nemec, I'd be badgering Larsson for advice non-stop.
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