RD Simon Nemec (2022, 2nd, NJD)

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

I didn't realize how much he's struggled since the end of last year. Dating back to April 7, he's dead last in xG% among players with>200 5v5 mins (and yea @Star Platinum Goodrow is right behind him lol):

He's also last in xGA/60 and rel xGA/60. His expected goal differential per 60 is a whopping -2.16. Mancini and Goodrow are next at -1.50 and -1.49.

In those 17 games, Nemec's single game high xG% is 43.7%, and he only broke 40% one other time in those 17 games:

That has to be nearing a record for consecutive games with sub 45% xG numbers.

He should get some slack based on his return from injury and partial training camp, but honestly his slide really began in early to mid March of last season and has only accelerated from there.

It's crazy how he was so solid for his first 30-40 games of his career only for his game to completely fall apart (most notably, his defensive game). He was so much more conservative early on, but became increasingly reckless looking for offense as his rookie year progressed. And it seems he's shown no interest in fixing that trend, as those habits have only gotten worse. I've never seen an NHL defenseman get caught up ice so often for really no good reason - he's created at least 2-3 odd man opportunities for the opponent every game this year.

If he could just focus on being a defensive defenseman, I think he could still have a very successful career. But he has to realize that he's just not a good enough skater or skilled enough playmaker/shooter to be a productive OFD in this league. The sooner he accepts that, the sooner he can focus on becoming a top 4 shutdown D (who can maybe QB a 2nd unit). That's likely his only path to becoming a long term NHLer at this point.

Adam Larsson had to learn the same lesson, and eventually transformed into one of the best defensive dmen in the league. Nemec could absolutely develop into a poor man's Larsson if he changes his mindset. Their trajectories are remarkably similar, they were both drafted by NJ as the first dman taken in their drafts. Both were thought to have a fair amount of offensive upside, with decent skating but high all around IQ.

Larsson peaked as a devil in 2015-16, he was a rock that year despite low point totals. Then he went on the be a great shutdown defender in Edmonton. He only averaged 17 points per 82 games from 2015-2021, but he was widely regarded as a top pairing dman.

If I was Simon Nemec, I'd be badgering Larsson for advice non-stop.

 

[ItWasJustified]

but he was widely regarded as a top pairing dman.

You make it sound like he's not a top paring dman in Seattle when he's basically played 23 minutes per game during his time there and in his past 5 games has played one 26 and one 27 minute game.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

You make it sound like he's not a top paring dman in Seattle when he's basically played 23 minutes per game during his time there and in his past 5 games has played one 26 and one 27 minute game.

I didn't intend to imply that at all, I was merely highlighting the time period with which he peaked despite not putting up tons of offense.

I'm on record arguing that he's Seattle's most valuable player.

 

[Chainshot]

I stand corrected - he has been epicly bad. Holy crap.

 

[Nazzz]

I think he won't finish the year in Jersey

1st round Toronto 2025 + Lukas Reichel
X
Simon Nemec

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

1st round Toronto 2025 + Lukas Reichel
X
Simon Nemec

I would seriously consider this. I'm a big Reichel fan and think he would fit in perfectly in NJ.

 

[Baksfamous112]

I don’t understand all the hate toward Nemec in this thread. Is he struggling in the NHL? Yes. Is he progressing in the AHL? Also yes.

With Casey, Hughes and Silayev already in the system and veteran like Hamilton, Pesce and Sieg already leading the charge the Devils can be patient and develop him properly. They also DON’T need him to hit his absolute ceiling and be a dominent top pair RHD. Even if he top out at a good two way to 4 that’s still a huge W for the Devils and a long term peace of mind at a position that is incredibly hard to fill in the NHL

 

[Juxtaposer]

Nemec's lack of immediate success does change his likely projection (ie he's almost certainly not a future top-pairing guy), "20 year old defenseman struggles in the NHL" is hardly a noteworthy storyline for a guy with middle-pairing upside. People are getting hung up on the draft position (fair for disappointed Devils fans, but otherwise skews expectations) and proclaiming him a bust because of it. He's underperforming his draft position significantly, but he could still develop into a useful player and with the scarcity of RHD, he'll still have a long career.

 

[Freaky Styley]

I don’t understand all the hate toward Nemec in this thread. Is he struggling in the NHL? Yes. Is he progressing in the AHL? Also yes.

With Casey, Hughes and Silayev already in the system and veteran like Hamilton, Pesce and Sieg already leading the charge the Devils can be patient and develop him properly. They also DON’T need him to hit his absolute ceiling and be a dominent top pair RHD. Even if he top out at a good two way to 4 that’s still a huge W for the Devils and a long term peace of mind at a position that is incredibly hard to fill in the NHL

Honestly I don't think it's hate, just observation. He started putting up points in the AHL once Casey got injured and he got more opportunity there, but his poor defensive play continued as is. So while you might call that progress, I see it as a red flag to not have the commitment to work on your weaknesses (which is what AHL assignments are for). That, combined with the lack of physical tools to play the game he wants to is going to prevent him from getting a coach's trust in the NHL

 

[Hisch13r]

And the undervaluing of how good Kovacevic has been since he is a low acquisition cost player who is a former waiver pick up - it's hard for people to sometimes grasp that yeah, he's actually really good at shot suppression and deserves the icetime he's getting, not that Nemec was somehow epicly bad to allow that to happen.

Kovy has taken a step back as of late with no Siegs. Nemec has been epically bad though and worse than Kovy that has taken a step back

 

[Hisch13r]

Honestly I don't think it's hate, just observation. He started putting up points in the AHL once Casey got injured and he got more opportunity there, but his poor defensive play continued as is. So while you might call that progress, I see it as a red flag to not have the commitment to work on your weaknesses (which is what AHL assignments are for). That, combined with the lack of physical tools to play the game he wants to is going to prevent him from getting a coach's trust in the NHL

I think it’d be one thing if he was playing even decently well in his NHL minutes. Then the defensive struggles in the AHL could pretty clearly be chalked up to the fact that he no interest in playing in the AHL. That’s still not the attitude you’d want but you’d be able to look past it if he actually was just above the AHL level. That’s not what it is though since he’s been awful defensively at both levels and hasn’t done anything offensively in the NHL this year either.

Like could Nemec still be a quality NHLer? Sure. Do I think he’s ever going to live up to his draft position as a potential star or at least like a high end #2D? No. I never thought that and his play this year just makes it harder to see that happen. I’m perfectly ready to move on from him right now if there’s a good deal to be made. Maybe he figures things out elsewhere but I’m perfectly fine accepting the risk of that and just cutting bait now.

When he was draft I said he gave me Damon Severson vibes and people scoffed at that. Now he doesn’t even look as good as a 20 year old Sevo did. I think if he became Severson at this point it’d be a solid outcome for him. I think Severson is a very quality 2nd pair guy the majority of time. Then the minority of time he completely loses his mind and does something dumb that leads to the puck going into his own net. I think Sevo’s a better skater but he’s another guy that leans offensive yet doesn’t have the standout tools to be a high end offensive player. If Nemec cuts the dumb shit out of his game and quits getting caught up ice I think he can be like Severson but probably a bit smarter.

 

[jfhabs]

Kovy has taken a step back as of late with no Siegs. Nemec has been epically bad though and worse than Kovy that has taken a step back

Are they playing on the same pair? Both are righties, so might not be ideal.

 

[Dirtyf1ghter]

Number of U21 defenders installed in the NHL: 1 (Lane Hutson, on whom no one was betting).

The thing is, no one expected Seamus Casey this high and he's taking the available chair in New Jersey.

Otherwise, it is known that defensemen settle later in the NHL than forwards. Nemec's AHL season looks to be very good.

He has way more value than a late 1st round pick and weak winger on the NHL scale. By weak I mean below the league average which I don't see going above especially since Reichel's profile is not that of a defensive forward.

In a redraft, Nemec would be picked between 8 and 10. Reichel would be a 25-28 pick in a 2020 redraft and the Toronto pick should be at that level. New Jersey would get ripped off.