About 60% of players drafted between 20-30 don't really become better than something you can easily pick up on waivers. This is a bad pick, and looks to be an obvious miss, but it happens a lot in the late 1st. This one is just really noticeable because it looks to be happening quickly and he was such an outlier of a pick against consensus. A 5th D-man in the late first is pretty much a single. Now, you'd really like to get a peripheral core guy who can be a top 9 forward, a top 4 D or a starting goalie, but you get those about 40% of the time. People dramatically over-estimate what you are likely to get with a late first.