The thing is is that if you gave me a literal clone of 18 year old Makar, Hughes, Fox, whoever, even knowing that they're identical to the guys that have gone on to be superstars, I would still bet that they're more likely to end up as that 2nd/3rd line + PPQB guy than the superstars that they turned into. You're always more likely to be right playing it safe with a projection like that.
Personally, I think ASP has every tool that he needs to be one of the elite offensive defenseman in the NHL. Is he as good at skating as Makar or Hughes as prospects? Nope, they were truly special in that regard. But ASP's shot, physical play and positioning (both offensively and defensively) are better. Fox was the worst prospect of the four, being less physically developed and, similar to ASP, more of a shifty, agile skater with only decent speed (instead of the truly elite at every facet skating of Makar and Hughes). All of them had great hands and vision at this age.
For every Makar, Hughes or Fox, there's a hundred Zidlickys, Deangelos and Boqvists. Guys that were good, maybe even great sometimes. But never could put that dominant game together in the NHL. Just by the nature of player development, ASP is way more likely to be one of the ones that fizzles or tops out as a decent, but not elite player. You should never expect anyone to turn into Fox 2.0, including Fox 1.0. By that same token though, I think anyone watching ASP's play and nit-picking it to put a ceiling on him is crazy. You could have done that with Makar- "those moves won't work outside the AJHL when he has to play against guys that can skate," or Hughes, "he's too small and light to be effective," or Fox, "He doesn't have the speed or flash to play his game at his size in the NHL." To my eye, ASP has every tool to be one of those truly elite offensive defenseman someday if his development goes perfectly- like theirs did.