Castle8130
Registered User
- May 9, 2017
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Levshunov will be the Hawks new Brent Seabrook caliber of player. If you are happy with that, then thats great.
RD Artyom Levshunov - Michigan State Univ., NCAA (2024 Draft)
- Thread starter MMC
- Start date
- Sep 29, 2016
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I actually like the Seabrook comparison. Big and smooth skating righty defenseman but other than that mostly average. Not very dynamic, not very intense, rather soft for his size.
Seabrook in his prime was a very good player. Would I take him 2nd overall? Definitely not. Seabrook wasn't the 2nd best player of his draft either.
- Sep 29, 2016
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He has a negative reputation? I haven't seen anybody write anything negative about the player. It's just that many, me included, aren't excited about him because of him lacking the elite skills of the fellow defensemen in this draft. I explained it above. There's no area where Levshunov is top of the table. He's good in all areas but still outclassed. There are defensemen with better motors, better vision, better hands, more grit, higher intensity in this draft. Levshunov isn't the strongest on the puck and he doesn't have the best shot either. It's also not like I'd call anything about him elite. The combination of size and skating is excellent but then again...both Dickinson and Silayev are taller and at least as smooth skating as Levshunov. So while it's intriguing it's also not unique...not even in his draft year.
I understand that Levshunov is one of the safer picks in this year's draft but like I said...if I wanna avoid risks and am looking for a defenseman I'm picking Dickinson over Levshunov every day of the week. Dickinson is a top prospect with mostly good to average tools as well but has better hands, better vision and seems to be significantly more dynamic.
So again. No negative reputation. It's just that many seem to share my sentiment of Levshunov being more of a double digit pick than a real option at nr.2. He's a top prospect and should go in the 1st round. There's nothing bad to say about Levshunov.
Hockey Duckie
Registered User
I think the 2023 draft has skewed our brains as to what a #2 pick should look like. You had a generational talent in Bedard and two franchise players in Carlsson and Fantilli - three, if you include Michkov. Then there's Will Smith. Will Smith probably could vie for #2 overall in the 2024 draft.
The 2024 draft has Celebrini (not considered a generational talent like Bedard) and then a mix from 2-6 or 2-12 prospects, depending on who you're reading from for scouting purposes. Generally, offensive-minded 2-way defenders are a bit more valued.
- The d-men breakdown in the top-10/12
- 2-way D (2WD), offensive-minded: Lev, Buium
- 2-way D (2WD), defensive-minded: Dickinson
- Shutdown D (DFD): Silayev
- Offensive D (OFD): Parekh, Yakemchuk
If Lev were simply an OFD, then he wouldn't be in the top-3 conversation and probably would slot behind Parekh and Yakemchuk. But Lev improved his defense to become a 2WD, which ranks his stock higher.
| Lev | on NA ice | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season | League | Team | GP | G | A | Pts | PPG | +/- | |
| D-1 | USHL | Green Bay | 62 | 13 | 29 | 42 | 0.68 | -15 | |
| D+0 | NCAA | Michigan State | 38 | 9 | 26 | 35 | 0.92 | 27 |
USHL
In Lev's first year on NA ice, he finished 6th in scoring for Green Bay and -15 rating, which was the worst on the club. Lev was the highest scoring U18 d-man in the USHL that season. We can say that Lev was an OFD in his D-1 season.
NCAA.
Lev chose to go to Michigan St. In 2022-23, Michigan St. ranked 16th in the Pairwise NCAA Ranking and missed the NCAA (Frozen Four) Tourney. In 2023-24, Lev's freshman year, he helped the team finish 4th in the Pairwise NCAA Ranking and went to the NCAA Tourney.
How much did Lev help?
Lev led the team in scoring during the regular season, but finished 2nd in team scoring when including the playoffs with 35 points. The team's highest scorer had 36 points. Offensively, Lev helped carry the team. Defensively, Lev owned the team high of +27 rating. The second highest was a +20 and third highest was a + 13. Defensively, Lev carried the team along with the netminders, Augustine (0.915 Sv%) and Pasquo (0.910 Sv%).
That vast improvement in Lev's defense cannot be overlooked. He's transformed from an OFD into a 2WD in between a summer and helped improve his team drastically in all areas.
MSU (Lev) vs Denver (Zeev Buium)
2022-23 Pairwise Ranking (No Lev or Zeev)
#4. Denver, 30-9-0
#16. MSU, 18-18-2 (No NCAA Tourney)
2023-24 Pairwise Ranking
#3. Denver, 28-9-3
#4. MSU, 24-9-3 (No NCAA Tourney)
2023-24 Drafted Players
Denver = 12
MSU = 6 (including goalie Augustine)
Zeev was on a stacked team before he got there. To his credit, Zeev performed great with Denver as he finished 2nd in scoring (50 pts) and tied for 1st in +/- with +33. To put that +/- rating into a stacked perspective, Denver had eight players with +21 or higher where as MSU had only two players with +21 or higher. Similarly for scoring, Denver had 11 players scoring 30 points or more, whereas MSU had only four players scoring 30 points or more. We can now see how much more of an impact Lev had on his team than Zeev with Denver.
Maybe being above average everywhere can make a significant amount of difference for team play like it did with Lev and MSU. Although, Elite Prospects did notice that Lev was great at activation as well as denoting Lev was playing at a higher level than his teammates offensively. The funny thing is that Lev is still a raw prospect who is still learning how to play on NA ice. Which is already a high floor for being raw. I hope he stays another season with MSU to continue to refine his game. No idea where people say Lev is close to a finished product to where they can't see any more improvement when he transformed his defense from team worst on a lower level of competition to team best at a higher level of competition.
People are searching for elite skills or unique skills, but forget the impact for the team on the ice. One trait I love about Lev is he's often directing or telling where the puck will be or play will be as a freshman in the NCAA. We have defenders at the NHL level that don't communicate on the ice, which is to their detriment.
Sergei Shirokov
Registered User
I don't know about the Ekblad comparison, Ekblad plays hard defensively, I don't think Levshunov has the same intensity in the Dzone though he has better offensive upside than Ekblad.
Seabrook too, Seabrook played really hard. He scored some big goals but his focus was being rock solid in his own end first.
I guess this is all to say my biggest issue with Levshunov seems to be his lack of intensity in his end.
I think his strengths are his vision with the puck, skating speed, & the general advantages his size brings (length/range). I don't think he's overly physical nor overly intense defensively. I'd think your more-so hoping for him to be atleast average defensively, move the puck well+consistently, & contribute some offense. Not be one of the better matchup D in the league.
Seabrook too, Seabrook played really hard. He scored some big goals but his focus was being rock solid in his own end first.
I guess this is all to say my biggest issue with Levshunov seems to be his lack of intensity in his end.
I think his strengths are his vision with the puck, skating speed, & the general advantages his size brings (length/range). I don't think he's overly physical nor overly intense defensively. I'd think your more-so hoping for him to be atleast average defensively, move the puck well+consistently, & contribute some offense. Not be one of the better matchup D in the league.
Chelios
Registered User
This may be the worst description of Seabrook I have ever seen.
The game is going away from blow up hits, anyway. They call things way too closely, and big hitters tend to get big injuries. The more important thing, especially for a premium offensive player like him, is if he has the size and strength to withstand physical contact, angle opposing players into the boards while defending the rush, and to lean on and move people away from the front of the net. more subtle than big hits, but more important. It looks like levshunov will have the size and strength to do those things when he comes up, but remains to be seem if he has the mindset.
Right now, because his talent level is so far above others that he is playing with, he tends to do want to just grab the puck and go, rather than engage physically. Parekh is even more that way inclined.
Pavel Buchnevich
Drury and Laviolette Must Go
Also, this idea that Jack Johnson is some disappointing pick if he was picked at 2OA isn’t really aligning with recent history.
Since 2000, these are the 2OA’s to play at least 100 games. I put them into categories compared to Johnson’s career.
Distinctly better than him: Heatley, Spezza, Staal, Malkin, Doughty, Hedman, Barkov, Eichel
Distinctly worse than him: Ryan, Staal, JVR, Murray, Patrick, Kakko
Same tier: Lehtonen, Seguin, Landeskog, Reinhart, Laine, Svechnikov
8 better, 6 worse, 6 same tier. So what you have is that Johnson is somewhere towards a middle outcome for a 2OA. Probably a little below average, but really not some terrible outcome for a 2OA if that’s all Levshunov ends up.
Pavel Buchnevich
Drury and Laviolette Must Go
I don't think this is correct.
Maybe it's a close call and you say no and hope for a player that ends up a little better, but definitely not? So you'd want Ryan Murray or Bobby Ryan instead? Because thats what a 2OA can end up.
And this idea that he wasn't 2nd best in literally the best draft of the 21st century so he can't be a 2OA value player is such flawed logic. I don't know if he actually would be "second best player in a draft" caliber when you add up all careers, but when you draft a player you are picking them before their careers start. The outcome could be better than the draft slot (except 1OA) or it could be worse.
Seabrook was a top 20 defenseman in the NHL for his best few years, played over 1000 games, and a valuable player on a dynasty winning three cups. If that's all Levshunov becomes, you'd be ludicrous to say thats a poor outcome.
Pavel Buchnevich
Drury and Laviolette Must Go
I think Levshunov is being massively underrated by many.
He definitely has some flaws. I think his decision-making can be a little all over the place, and it makes you question if he lacks hockey sense, lacks details in his game, tries too hard to make things happen on both ends of the ice, or needs more development to make more efficient decisions.
Aside from that, I see a player who has all the tools. He's big, skates very well, is physical, can pass, shoot, handle the puck, can make defensive stops, and can play in every situation. Statistically, he's been very productive the last two seasons and has also looked like one of the better defensemen in both leagues.
People make fun of how physically mature he is. Why is that a bad thing? At a certain point, projecting out an NHL skillset goes too far. You aren't looking for the player who will grow the most. You are looking for who will be the best NHL player. The jibes about his hair are interesting humor, but again completely irrelevant to where he should be drafted. Don't even for a second think about that suggesting he's too physically mature or is older than he says. Go back and read the comments about Evan Bouchard after the combine. All types of comments about his voice and his beard and stuff like that. An example of where HF playing endocrinologist fails.
The way I look at things, Levshunov is kind of the defenseman that isn't going to attract those people who are attached to niche elements. He doesn't have the flashy skills of Parekh. People talked all about how historic Parekh's scoring was and I'm not saying it wasn't, but was Levshunov's scoring not historic? Was Buium's not historic? Look at how Yakemchuk and Dickinson scored this year. Celebrini was right at the top of the NCAA charts. Almost all the highest scorers in the USHL are first year draft-eligibles. Is it possible we've entered an era where it's easier for all of the best players to score in their draft year? Everyone always claims these uber-skilled OFD are going to be the next Erik Karlsson. We heard it with Murray, DeAngelo, Boqvist, Merkley. You can make a legit argument Parekh will be different and is the best of them. That's possible. He also may not be. We've heard this story before.
People will claim that Buium is a wizard with how he thinks the game. I read a lot of people compare him to Adam Fox. Buium put up historic point totals this year, and won everything he could win. He's skilled, he's not small, doesn't skate poorly, isn't weak defensively. There's a lot to like. Some people are convinced he'll be the best defenseman in the draft. Yet, I watch Fox every game and have watched Buium now for three years and can emphatically say the comparison is not good. Buium is nowhere in the same stratosphere with how he drives results in all zones. There are some superficial similarities (around 6'0 American defensemen that are smart with good, not amazing puck handling and good enough, not great skating), but the similarities end there. Buium played this year on great teams. Denver every year has players whose point totals are very inflated. They play an easier schedule than the other top teams in the NCAA because they are out West where there's less good competition. Buium still is very good, Denver is still very good, but I would pump the brakes that he's a guaranteed star. He's still 6'0, at best a B- defender, and doesn't have Makar and Hughes puck skills/skating or Fox hockey sense. He won't go top 2-3 for valid reasons.
I'm not going to write a book so I'll keep some of the rest of this brief. Dickinson is a player who has a lot more of the projectable traits that teams look for than some others. Teams look big defenseman who can skate and play defense. That's what's becoming in-vogue in the NHL in recent years. In a lot of ways there are similarities to Levshunov, but I think you truly have to wonder with Dickinson whether his puck skills, hockey sense, and vision are like NHL PP1 and 40-60 point good or he'll be a 25-35 point guy yearly that plays in your top 4 and gives you good value without ever being a top level player in the NHL. Silayev has the intriguing size, skating, defense, and has some some semblance of a puck game, but he's still a project. You wouldn't be drafting him for what he is now. You might be picking a guy who barely can keep up in the NHL when all is said and done. You know that's possible. Yakemchuk has intriguing offensive upside with his shot (and he can handle and pass also). Combine that with his size and aggressive play and it's obvious why teams are excited, but his skating is a valid concern and some of his positional defensive play and risk taking are also for what his skating is.
All of this is to say I believe Levshunov has less risk attached to him. I believe for these reasons he's the best defenseman in this draft. The only thing you can validly knock him for is the decision making element. Whether that's fixable, isn't a serious concern, needs time, is a product of the level of competition, or is not a true concern five years from now, is all debatable and time will tell. But I don't think this will keep him from being top 4. It'll keep him from being a true #1D or only a good 2-3D. I don't see this major downside to his game. I think you can feel relatively safe that you are getting an important player to a Cup Contender, and potentially one of the best players on a Cup contender.
The last thing I'll say and then hang up is that I think Levshunov doesn't benefit in perception from being Belorussian. There are very few good Belorussian hockey players. There's not a long history of success for Belorussian defenseman like there is for Swedish defenseman. If there's a big Finn prospect, their fans will make it known. The Russian players always have intrigue attached to them. People connote that with high potential and are interested in that. The best North American players are obviously never without discussion. For these reasons, it's harder to get excited about him than players of other nationalities and he's not going to get the same interest for his nationality. But does that really matter? It shouldn't. There wasn't a long history of amazing German players before Draisaitl or Slovenian players before Kopitar. You have to embrace what the best prospects are and where they come from, not stay in your "big 6 nation" bubble. Good for Belarus in producing Levshunov, and we'll see if they can replicate that in the future with other players.
He definitely has some flaws. I think his decision-making can be a little all over the place, and it makes you question if he lacks hockey sense, lacks details in his game, tries too hard to make things happen on both ends of the ice, or needs more development to make more efficient decisions.
Aside from that, I see a player who has all the tools. He's big, skates very well, is physical, can pass, shoot, handle the puck, can make defensive stops, and can play in every situation. Statistically, he's been very productive the last two seasons and has also looked like one of the better defensemen in both leagues.
People make fun of how physically mature he is. Why is that a bad thing? At a certain point, projecting out an NHL skillset goes too far. You aren't looking for the player who will grow the most. You are looking for who will be the best NHL player. The jibes about his hair are interesting humor, but again completely irrelevant to where he should be drafted. Don't even for a second think about that suggesting he's too physically mature or is older than he says. Go back and read the comments about Evan Bouchard after the combine. All types of comments about his voice and his beard and stuff like that. An example of where HF playing endocrinologist fails.
The way I look at things, Levshunov is kind of the defenseman that isn't going to attract those people who are attached to niche elements. He doesn't have the flashy skills of Parekh. People talked all about how historic Parekh's scoring was and I'm not saying it wasn't, but was Levshunov's scoring not historic? Was Buium's not historic? Look at how Yakemchuk and Dickinson scored this year. Celebrini was right at the top of the NCAA charts. Almost all the highest scorers in the USHL are first year draft-eligibles. Is it possible we've entered an era where it's easier for all of the best players to score in their draft year? Everyone always claims these uber-skilled OFD are going to be the next Erik Karlsson. We heard it with Murray, DeAngelo, Boqvist, Merkley. You can make a legit argument Parekh will be different and is the best of them. That's possible. He also may not be. We've heard this story before.
People will claim that Buium is a wizard with how he thinks the game. I read a lot of people compare him to Adam Fox. Buium put up historic point totals this year, and won everything he could win. He's skilled, he's not small, doesn't skate poorly, isn't weak defensively. There's a lot to like. Some people are convinced he'll be the best defenseman in the draft. Yet, I watch Fox every game and have watched Buium now for three years and can emphatically say the comparison is not good. Buium is nowhere in the same stratosphere with how he drives results in all zones. There are some superficial similarities (around 6'0 American defensemen that are smart with good, not amazing puck handling and good enough, not great skating), but the similarities end there. Buium played this year on great teams. Denver every year has players whose point totals are very inflated. They play an easier schedule than the other top teams in the NCAA because they are out West where there's less good competition. Buium still is very good, Denver is still very good, but I would pump the brakes that he's a guaranteed star. He's still 6'0, at best a B- defender, and doesn't have Makar and Hughes puck skills/skating or Fox hockey sense. He won't go top 2-3 for valid reasons.
I'm not going to write a book so I'll keep some of the rest of this brief. Dickinson is a player who has a lot more of the projectable traits that teams look for than some others. Teams look big defenseman who can skate and play defense. That's what's becoming in-vogue in the NHL in recent years. In a lot of ways there are similarities to Levshunov, but I think you truly have to wonder with Dickinson whether his puck skills, hockey sense, and vision are like NHL PP1 and 40-60 point good or he'll be a 25-35 point guy yearly that plays in your top 4 and gives you good value without ever being a top level player in the NHL. Silayev has the intriguing size, skating, defense, and has some some semblance of a puck game, but he's still a project. You wouldn't be drafting him for what he is now. You might be picking a guy who barely can keep up in the NHL when all is said and done. You know that's possible. Yakemchuk has intriguing offensive upside with his shot (and he can handle and pass also). Combine that with his size and aggressive play and it's obvious why teams are excited, but his skating is a valid concern and some of his positional defensive play and risk taking are also for what his skating is.
All of this is to say I believe Levshunov has less risk attached to him. I believe for these reasons he's the best defenseman in this draft. The only thing you can validly knock him for is the decision making element. Whether that's fixable, isn't a serious concern, needs time, is a product of the level of competition, or is not a true concern five years from now, is all debatable and time will tell. But I don't think this will keep him from being top 4. It'll keep him from being a true #1D or only a good 2-3D. I don't see this major downside to his game. I think you can feel relatively safe that you are getting an important player to a Cup Contender, and potentially one of the best players on a Cup contender.
The last thing I'll say and then hang up is that I think Levshunov doesn't benefit in perception from being Belorussian. There are very few good Belorussian hockey players. There's not a long history of success for Belorussian defenseman like there is for Swedish defenseman. If there's a big Finn prospect, their fans will make it known. The Russian players always have intrigue attached to them. People connote that with high potential and are interested in that. The best North American players are obviously never without discussion. For these reasons, it's harder to get excited about him than players of other nationalities and he's not going to get the same interest for his nationality. But does that really matter? It shouldn't. There wasn't a long history of amazing German players before Draisaitl or Slovenian players before Kopitar. You have to embrace what the best prospects are and where they come from, not stay in your "big 6 nation" bubble. Good for Belarus in producing Levshunov, and we'll see if they can replicate that in the future with other players.
deytookerjaabs
Johnny Paycheck's Tank Advisor
Levshunov owns the ice in the NCAA in a similar way Chris Pronger owned the ice in the NHL. Simple, straight ahead game with a monster stride that covered a lot of ground. Brent Burns being somewhat similar.
Thing is, Pronger & Burns have 3-4 inches on Lev.
Lev plays a big dudes game but he's not really an ogre in terms of NHL size. The majority of the NCAA is right around 6.0 ft in average. Whereas, there's 10 teams in the NHL whose average height is right about 6'2", and the rest average at or above 6'1".
At the combine Lev measured 6 foot 1 3/4".
Thing is, Pronger & Burns have 3-4 inches on Lev.
Lev plays a big dudes game but he's not really an ogre in terms of NHL size. The majority of the NCAA is right around 6.0 ft in average. Whereas, there's 10 teams in the NHL whose average height is right about 6'2", and the rest average at or above 6'1".
At the combine Lev measured 6 foot 1 3/4".
Pavel Buchnevich
Drury and Laviolette Must Go
He’s as strong though as those guys are. Height isn’t the only element to playing that way. Not like 6’2 is short either.
Blackhawkswincup
RIP Fugu
- Sep 29, 2016
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He's rather soft for a big guy though. I mean he does use his size to his advantage but he's not overly physical. Unlike Yakemchuk or Silayev I don't expect him to become a volume or big hitter in the NHL. If he's able to up his intensity or develop a bit of a mean streak that would add an exciting element to his game and make him a much more interesting prospect. Right now I don't see it though. I'm not sure if he enjoys the rough stuff.
EbonyRaptor
Registered User
I'm not advocating for "blow up hits" - I'm saying he doesn't use his size nearly enough for my liking. You can say the league is going away from that but the NHL playoffs would say otherwise. You ask the right question of whether or not Levshunov will have the right mindset to play a more physical game - that's a good question and probably not one we can know conclusively yet - but so far he has not shown the willingness to play with that edge like it's not natural to him.
If Lev thought the game like Pronger then I'd consider taking him 1st OA.
His physical package is fantastic. He thick and has outstanding mobility, like Charlie McAvoy. There's nothing missing physically for Lev to "own the ice" in the NHL.
My entire critique of him is the processing.
- Sep 29, 2016
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His physical package may be fantastic but he doesn't play with an edge. Certainly nothing like Pronger.
With you talking about processing I have to mention Reinbacher again though. Montreal was getting a lot of heat for drafting Reinbacher 5th overall the reason being that you shouldn't draft a defenseman without elite skills this early just because he's more mature. It was said that Montreal went for a safe pick instead of drafting a player with elite skill and higher upside. I agree with all of those takes and I agree that when in doubt, those early picks should be spent on high end forwards. However, I think what people have missed it that Reinbacher is processing the game as fast and well as just about every other defenseman in this world. His play may not always look sexy, he may never quarterback a top PP in the NHL, he may never be a puck hog either but he's gonna be extremely effective and create a lot of offense, put up lots of points at even strength just because of him thinking the game so well. His vision is crazy, he's extremely good at finding open ice and teammates and he has the hands and mobility to pass the puck up ice quickly and accurately even from distance.
I mentioned it already but Levshunov for me is pretty much a carbon copy of David Reinbacher. They have almost identical bodies, both of them are excellent skaters for their size, both have a very mature game at a young age already but a rather average skillset to go with that. Both of them are lacking elite talent, both of them aren't really willing to go the extra mile physically, don't really project as volume hitters in the NHL. Levshunov may be a bit more confident with the puck while Reinbacher has slightly better hands but they're honestly very similar. The real difference is vision/processing. It's Reinbacher's biggest strength and Levshunov's biggest weakness. I mentioned it already but after last year's shitstorm I think it would be the best for everybody involved if Levshunov doesn't go in the top10. Levshunov would be struggling to meet such sky high expectations and depending on the team and market he ends up landing he'd get just as much hate as Reinbacher or even worse.
Lev I think is an even more gifted skater than Reinbacher.
But I agree with you that Reinbacher is the much better processor and as a result the better prospect.
Chelios
Registered User
To be honest, I have a hard time believing that a player that has progressed as quickly has Lev has over the past 2 seasons has poor processing/IQ/decisionmaking. I feel like with the amount of progress we have seen from him, not just year to year but even within the same season, a lot of what people attributing to poor processing/IQ/decisionmaking is more a function of learning a new league, a new system, new teammates etc... I would be very interested to see if he stays in college next year how that perception might change when is in a familiar situation for the first time in a long time.
montreal
Go Habs Go
Knarf9o5o1o4o9
GostisBeHere Now
- Oct 22, 2016
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Jack Johnson deserves credit for being able to stick and around for as long as he has but JVR, STaal, Seguin, Landeskogg, Reinhart, Svechnikov, and Laine are all decidedly better players than Johnson. Bobby Ryan was too he just couldnt stay healthy
Pavel Buchnevich
Drury and Laviolette Must Go
Can you explain how? I can’t agree with that.
We are talking about careers, not what any of them are now.
Knarf9o5o1o4o9
GostisBeHere Now
- Oct 22, 2016
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Jack Johnson at his statistical best was a 40 point guy who played pretty poorly defensively and has spent the 2nd half of his career as a journeyman clinging onto a roster
Every player I listed has had a much bigger impact individually, even if they havent been doing it for as long
Only players lower than Johnson are Patrick (injuries), Kakko and Murray. Not sure why someone would want to die on a hill defending Jack Johnson
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