RD Artyom Levshunov - Michigan State Univ., NCAA (2024, 2nd, CHI)
- Thread starter MMC
- Start date
I'd take him 2nd overall - he could certainly go lower, but he's my current pick at 2. He's got a great offensive game - hands, shot, skating/mobility, offensive hockey IQ, all strong. He's also got good size, plays a physical game, is very nice on breakouts, and his defence improved leaps and bounds over the season, went from a weakness to a real strength. Definitely still has raw elements to his game, but he's improving really fast, and his overall performance at the NCAA as an 18 year old was super impressive.
He's got basically everything you're looking for in a D prospect, I think he'd be hard to pass on for anyone but Celebrini. Has the potential to be a legit #1 dman, like a lower end franchise D, if his development continues to go well.
He's got basically everything you're looking for in a D prospect, I think he'd be hard to pass on for anyone but Celebrini. Has the potential to be a legit #1 dman, like a lower end franchise D, if his development continues to go well.
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- Jan 22, 2007
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Man, I want to love this kid, but honestly I just don't see it. I think he is a very nice prospect, and he has perfect size with a RH shot, but he reminds me more of an Ivan Provorov/Aaron Ekblad mix than an elite, offensive-driving, #1 defenseman like a Makar, Hughes, Fox, or prime Doughty.
Like Provorov (as a draft-year prospect) he shows some glimpses but there is a clumsy or awkward style to his game that makes me uncomfortable when we're talking about a player going #2 overall. To his credit, he strikes me as a player who is more steak than sizzle, but I think his cut of beef is almost cooked and... like with Ekblad... he's close to a "what you see is what you get" type of prospect without additional levels to go.
Not even including an elite offensive wizard like Demidov... I personally think Levshunov "might" end up the 4th best defenseman in this draft IF all goes well for him. I think Buium ends up the run-away best all-around D in the draft when we look back in 5-6 years. Silayev and Dickenson will be up there as well due to their elite defense.
I think, best case, Lev ends up 4th best D but I could reasonably see guys like Parekh or Yakemchuk passing him if they end up 70+ point D guys. I truly think Levshunov ends up all-around very good but not elite in any one facet of the game at the NHL level.
He'll be like an Ekblad or Werenski in a world full of Makar, Hedman, Hughes, Josi, Heiskanen, Karlsson, Carlson, etc.
Like Provorov (as a draft-year prospect) he shows some glimpses but there is a clumsy or awkward style to his game that makes me uncomfortable when we're talking about a player going #2 overall. To his credit, he strikes me as a player who is more steak than sizzle, but I think his cut of beef is almost cooked and... like with Ekblad... he's close to a "what you see is what you get" type of prospect without additional levels to go.
Not even including an elite offensive wizard like Demidov... I personally think Levshunov "might" end up the 4th best defenseman in this draft IF all goes well for him. I think Buium ends up the run-away best all-around D in the draft when we look back in 5-6 years. Silayev and Dickenson will be up there as well due to their elite defense.
I think, best case, Lev ends up 4th best D but I could reasonably see guys like Parekh or Yakemchuk passing him if they end up 70+ point D guys. I truly think Levshunov ends up all-around very good but not elite in any one facet of the game at the NHL level.
He'll be like an Ekblad or Werenski in a world full of Makar, Hedman, Hughes, Josi, Heiskanen, Karlsson, Carlson, etc.
Caser
Moderator
Found a pic of Sergei Zubov at about the same age, so people wouldn't think I'm totally joking:
Goon42
Registered User
- Apr 12, 2013
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I like the werenski comparison to be honest but why do you think he is more of a see what you get prospect? Going from Belarus 2 years ago to almost ppg in the NCAA as a Dman in his draft year is an insane upward curve.
Bjornar Moxnes
Registered User
I think you need to lower expectations for many of these guys. If Levshunov ends up as an Ekblad or Werenski level player that would be a top 5 pick in most any draft. Realistically, nobody from this draft is likely to be Makar or Miro or Hedman. That is wishful thinking. If someone picked 2-5 ends up as Werenski or Ekblad club that picks them should be thrilled.
- Jul 28, 2011
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I think if he were anything like those players he'd go #1 in this draft without hesitation from a GM. I also don't see that from him, but again, that's why there's no talk of him going #1.
I still see Erik Johnson / Ekblad. All the tools, but a rigidity in movement and thinking that will curtail his ability to dominate play in the pro game. Don’t get me wrong, that’s a very valuable piece and I love the floor, but I would want a bit more if I’m Chicago or Anaheim
BHawk21
Registered User
- Mar 21, 2022
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Ekblad in 2018-2022 was pretty great. The injuries messed him up. I would be very happy if Levshunov could play like that for an extended period of time.
I'm not a huge Levshunov fan but the undervaluing of him and the overvaluing of Buium is getting pretty funny.
Pavel Buchnevich
"Pavel Buchnevich The Fake"
If he ends up like Ekblad or Werenski, that is not a bad outcome with the 2nd overall pick.
I agree he's quite unlikely to be a Makar, Hughes, Fox or Hedman level dman, but I do think he has a good shot to be a roughly Ekblad, Werenski, Carlson, Dougie Hamilton, Dobson or Parayko level dman. Or in terms of very recent picks, he's decently similar to David Jiricek (a bit smaller but a better skater, fairly similar overall game). And I personally think those are very valuable players!
I definitely wouldn't say I'm confident he'll be the best dman in the draft, there's a tonne of really good dmen available. But ... for now, he'd be my pick of the pack, I do like him a bit more than any of Buium, Silayev, Dickenson, Parekh or Yakemchuk in terms of overall projection. I could easily be wrong, but I have him 1st in that group at the moment, from my viewings and reading. Seems like a guy with both a high floor and high ceiling, and big, physical, 2-way RHDs who can skate are in very high demand. I think his "reasonable floor" is a 2nd pairing dman, his "reasonable ceiling" a legit #1, like a lower end franchise dman (which is how I'd classify guys like Ekblad, Werenski, Carlson, Dougie Hamilton, Dobson and Parayko). High floor high ceiling IMO. Buium is probably the highest offensive ceiling guy, he does have a shot to be more of a Fox/Josi type, but could also be a Jake Gardiner/Justin Schultz. Silayev probably the highest overall upside with his huge size and great skating, but significant bust potential IMO. Lev's combo of high floor and still pretty high ceiling will be quite attractive IMO.
As for Demidov, obviously massively different players. Demidov is super skilled and dynamic, but also makes a lot of very dumb/selfish decisions with the puck, a lot of bad turnovers. I do see significant risk that he's a guy with huge talent but questionable overall impact, a guy who puts up big numbers but his team gets lit up while he's out there. Or he could mature and smooth out those elements of his game, but it's a risk. Also smaller, somewhat "1-way" offensive wingers tend to fall in the draft, especially if they're playing in Russia, with some uncertainty about when they'll come over. I do think Demidov is a bit below Michkov as a prospect, and Michkov fell to 7th overall. Obviously Demidov's contract is not as scary as Michkov's (Demidov locked into SKA for 1 post-draft year, Michkov 3), but just from the history of smaller Russian wingers tending to fall in the draft, I'd be wary about projecting Demidov to go 2nd overall. Ovie is the last Russian player, playing in Russia in his draft year, to go in the top 5 of an NHL draft, and that was 20 years ago.
Ultimately this draft is super hard to call after Celebrini, I could see Lev going as high as 2, but also as low as ~7-8. I think on the higher end of that range though, he has great tools and has been improving really fast.
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I agree with much of what you wrote but take exception to the idea that Silayev has "significant bust potential". At worst he is going to be a 2nd pairing defensive workhorse who will eat tough minutes. That's his floor. Maybe that is an underperform for a potential top 5 pick but it is far from a bust. His ceiling is probably on par with Levshunov's ceiling although they are definitely different style players.
WarriorofTime
Registered User
- Jul 3, 2010
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And if he’s closer to Alex Pietrangelo even better. People get caught up in this idea that a draft is gonna have like 10 “franchise talents”
montreal
Go Habs Go
he reminds me a lot of Tyler Myers which isn't a bad thing as clearly you are getting a future NHLer, since there just aren't many people his height that can skate with that kind of mobility. But he's got a lot of work to do in just about all areas of the game. Good thing he'll be in Russia for a couple years to work on it though so he's not rushed to the NHL.
In the games i've seen, which weren't that many but I do have I one or two on my youtube channel, while the skating, height and mobility clearly stand out as NHL level and likely will be viewed as elite in all 3 areas but I'm just having a hard time figuring out what the rest of his game is. I know the talk about his defense but he makes some questionable decisions there so I'm not sold on how good he is defensively, of course the insane reach + mobility combo will help him a ton as he'll be able to cover so much ice quickly.
His offensive game didn't really impress me too much and while he can dish some nice hits from the little i've seen, I thought that he needs to learn to use his size better.
- Jul 25, 2007
- 4,141
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I think this is spot on. I was hoping to see a Hedman type prospect develop, but the early season points were obviously a blip, not to mention his ice time slipping a bit towards the end of the year and looking pretty shaky in the MHL playoffs, given his hype. Still think he has a high floor, but the offense hasn't even had many flashes since early season.
Lev obviously has the tools but there is debate on whether he has the toolbox. Is he Zubov/Bouchard/Doughty, or is he Phaneuf/Jack Johnson, good players but disappointing at 2OA? I see the upside but I also see the "bust potential" versus expectations. You could be drafting a toolsy adventure every shift. Almost certainly top 4, but maybe a player you're frustrated with a lot and isn't a great cornerstone of a **true contender**. I wouldn't love picking 2 or 3 because it still, after all these months, feels like better value to be picking whoever is left at 6-10. At least you get to pick your poison at 2-3.
EbonyRaptor
Registered User
My main problem with Levshunov is that he seems to get lost in the d-zone too often and while that can be improved upon - it seems like it's not an instinctual thing for him to know how to play defense. The next shortcoming he has is he doesn't play physical - pretty much not at all. Even when he tries to make a hit it's more of an excuse me hit. I love his size and his skating and his vision and ability to make nice passes. His shot is adequate but certainly not a booming blue line shot by any stretch. Someone mentioned he has good hands but I have seen more bobbles than not when it comes to stick handling.
I think he will be a good #3/4 if he can get better defensively. Is that worthy of the #2 pick? Not in my book. If the Hawks want a defensive d-man who doesn't have much offense - pick Silayev. If they want an offensive d-man who doesn't play much defense - pick Parekh. If they want a safe pick who does everything OK but nothing great - pick Levshunov.
Or they could take the second best player in the draft and pick Demidov.
I think he will be a good #3/4 if he can get better defensively. Is that worthy of the #2 pick? Not in my book. If the Hawks want a defensive d-man who doesn't have much offense - pick Silayev. If they want an offensive d-man who doesn't play much defense - pick Parekh. If they want a safe pick who does everything OK but nothing great - pick Levshunov.
Or they could take the second best player in the draft and pick Demidov.
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I think all that is fair but I temper all discussions with the fact that he was 17 years-old playing against fully grown men in the 2nd toughest league in the world. How would Levshunov, Buium, or Dickinson have fared playing at the same level? Probably not so well and potentially much worse is my impression.
I'm not sure I agree with the Tyler Myers comparison except that they are both very tall and skate well. I think Silayev is going to be much more of an imposing presence than Myers ever was...more Chara like defensively. Even if his offense never fully develops (which under Larionov I think it will) he'll still be a massively important player...especially in May and June.
Yes, back to Levshunov...I think any comparisons to Doughty are way off. Doughty was a rock defensively from day 1 in the NHL. Levshunov has much work to do in that area. I might have started the Jack Johnson comparisons earlier in this thread and I could see that being what he becomes. That said, the tools are just too compelling and he does have a chance to become much more. So much so that I can't really see him not being picked at 2OA. I feel the same with Silayev at 3OA.
I don't want to sidetrack Levshunov thread, but again while we all hope to find next superstar I think we need to adjust our expectations for draft picks. Of course Silayev is much more likely to end up closer to Tyler Myers level than Hedman. After initial burst of excitement, I think most folks agree on that at this point. And that is solid top 10 pick. Just like Buium is much more likely to be on Shattenkirk level than Fox level and Dickinson is more likely to be closer to Hanifin than Heiskanen.
Any of those D would still be top 10 candidates for clubs if they thought they would end up with Myers, Shattenkirk, or Hanifin. And if Levshunov is next Werenski or Ekblad, whichever club drafts him at 2-5 should be quite pleased.
EbonyRaptor
Registered User
Not in the games I watched. I saw at least half a dozen MSU games and watched 4 "All Shifts" videos on Levshunov and my takeaway is that he doesn't play physical hardly at all. The few times he engages physically it's almost like it's a half measure "excuse me" hit. I recall only one time that he laid into a hit when he rubbed a player off on the boards. Can he learn to make a more concerted effort to hit guys? I suppose but it seems like it isn't natural for him - he doesn't have that Neanderthal Gene in him to ever become good at it.
If Lev becomes Werenski, then yes you don't mind taking that player at #2.
And I see the resemblance superficially, both players with wide 6'2 frames who can take a few big strides and fly through the neutral zone. Both are rovers who can quickly create an odd man situation.
Neither player is particularly good from a static, PPQB like position. They don't have quick feet to open up shot lanes from a standstill.
Werenski is one of the highest scoring 5v5 D because he cuts into open ice and creates a lot of odd man opportunities. He makes a good pass and has an incredible wrist shot. Lev will create odd-mans but Lev's shot doesn't seem elite in any way? And his passing is erratic, wildly off the mark much of the time.
I see his handling and passing as poor at times. In this clip, meant to show off some of the best of Levshunov, you can see some elite skating and a nice pass at the end. But in between there are three puck plays that are likely turnovers in the NHL. The first is a shovel pass up the boards, then later in quick succession two instances where NHLers would easily take the puck away for a transition chance.
I watched whole games where I thought the majority of his passes were off the mark.
So for me that's not Werenski, that's closer to a young Jack Johnson. An incredible athlete roving around the ice, but the passing and positioning are so erratic that it ultimately doesn't help his teammates as much as you'd like.
Did you watch Silayev in the MHL playoffs tomd?
It's free on youtube.
I think the "it's the KHL" argument has maybe blinded people to how limited Silayev actually is. Against his age group there's no pretension that this is a player with any offensive upside.
Agreed that we're not getting 5 or 6 All Star D out of this draft.
But I don't think the top 10 of the draft is for acquiring mid level NHLers. Teams are looking for top pair D. Myers, Shattenkirk, and Hanifin are not what you want. Werenski would be, but as I say above, that's Lev's ceiling not his floor, and I think not where he likely ends up.
And I see the resemblance superficially, both players with wide 6'2 frames who can take a few big strides and fly through the neutral zone. Both are rovers who can quickly create an odd man situation.
Neither player is particularly good from a static, PPQB like position. They don't have quick feet to open up shot lanes from a standstill.
Werenski is one of the highest scoring 5v5 D because he cuts into open ice and creates a lot of odd man opportunities. He makes a good pass and has an incredible wrist shot. Lev will create odd-mans but Lev's shot doesn't seem elite in any way? And his passing is erratic, wildly off the mark much of the time.
I see his handling and passing as poor at times. In this clip, meant to show off some of the best of Levshunov, you can see some elite skating and a nice pass at the end. But in between there are three puck plays that are likely turnovers in the NHL. The first is a shovel pass up the boards, then later in quick succession two instances where NHLers would easily take the puck away for a transition chance.
I watched whole games where I thought the majority of his passes were off the mark.
So for me that's not Werenski, that's closer to a young Jack Johnson. An incredible athlete roving around the ice, but the passing and positioning are so erratic that it ultimately doesn't help his teammates as much as you'd like.
Did you watch Silayev in the MHL playoffs tomd?
It's free on youtube.
I think the "it's the KHL" argument has maybe blinded people to how limited Silayev actually is. Against his age group there's no pretension that this is a player with any offensive upside.
Agreed that we're not getting 5 or 6 All Star D out of this draft.
But I don't think the top 10 of the draft is for acquiring mid level NHLers. Teams are looking for top pair D. Myers, Shattenkirk, and Hanifin are not what you want. Werenski would be, but as I say above, that's Lev's ceiling not his floor, and I think not where he likely ends up.
- Sep 29, 2016
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The problem with Levshunov is that everything about him is average. Very smooth skating for a big guy but that's about the only thing that excites me. Jack Johnson was pretty tough in his prime. Levshunov isn't exactly soft but also not very tough and certainly not intense. I doubt he's gonna be a volume hitter or regular physical force in the NHL the way Yakemchuk or Silayev are gonna be...or the way Jack Johnson was. So what is Levshunov gonna be? Is he gonna drive play? No, not dynamic enough and he doesn't have the vision either. His decision making is more than questionable and very much a work in progress. His shot isn't bad but it's nothing compared to Yakemchuk's.
Levshunov is gonna play top4 in the NHL but I see nothing that would suggest he's gonna be anything more than that. In every area Levshunov is clearly outclassed by other defensemen available in the 2024 draft. Maybe in a different year I'd be more excited about the player but in this year he's just average. So is Dickinson but he seems to have more drive, better vision/hockey IQ, better hands as well. So if I want a more safe and solid prospect I go Dickinson over Levshunov. If I want a tough defenseman I go Yakemchuk or Silayev. If I want a player with elite offensive upside I go Yakemchuk, Parekh or Buium.
So as I said...I don't know what Levshunov is or wants to be. Certainly not a 2nd overall in my book. Levshunov is basically David Reinbacher just with significantly worse vision/hockey IQ, probably worse hands as well. And people were complaining about Reinbacher getting picked 5th. Levshunov would not enjoy his life facing the expectations after getting picked 2nd. You pick 2nd overall you want a franchise defenseman. Levshunov is a solid prospect but chances of him becoming a franchise defenseman in the NHL are trending towards zero.
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