Speculation: Raymond Seider Contract Speculation

[AlwaysSunnyInDetroit]

8 year contract = "Red Wing for life!"
7 year contract = "omg he wants to leave as a free agent ASAP"

nailed it

 

[Euro Twins]

Odd distinction to differentiate between making and signing. If Trotz leaves Nashville during the season, Saros' contract is still his doing even though it doesn't activate until next season. Same thing with Kucherov's deal. Yzerman signed him for $1M more than Stamkos.

Brisebois signed vasy to his current deal. I'm really not sure the point your making here. And furthermore the point you made about Datsyuk and Zetterberg in 08 when neither of them was captain is silly. Lidtsrom was captain and made more than both. Yes Z became captain after lids retired and they had both already been signed to their contracts but Zetterberg has a extremely front loaded contract.

Edit: I just noticed you tried to switch from vasy to Kuch without me noticing.

Yes Yzerman did sign Kuch to more than Stamkos. I'm sure after talking to stammer about it too. He's a 100 point player at the time of signing. It also was not his deal that he signed coming off an elc.

Congratulations, you found the one player Yzerman signed to a deal worth more than Stammers. Nikita f***ing kucherov. Top 3 player in the league.

 

[Steve Yzerlland]

Because he's the captain. No one makes more than the captain. Honestly if you can make it work it's a very good cap management strategy to employ

This makes no sense. Not every captain is the highest paid player on the team.

 

[Euro Twins]

This makes no sense. Not every captain is the highest paid player on the team.

Obviously that's true. But can you definitively say seider is more valuable than Larkin? We saw what happened to the team without Larkin. I'd say it's pretty even value wise.

I'm just saying Yzerman is trying to create an internal cap structure that will allow them to build a deep cup contender going forward.

If seider gets 8.9 I won't be upset at all, but if they get him locked up for 7x8.7 I'll be very happy also.

Point is let the big dogs handle the contract negotiations. Yzerman is trying to set a standard. And unless you're a top 5-10 player in the league you won't make more than the captain.

 

[jkutswings]

No one was making more than Stamkos while Steve was there. Yzerman has no control over contracts in 08 so that's a weird argument

This is objectively false. Yzerman became the GM in Tampa in May of 2010 when Stamkos was still on his rookie deal. When he inked Stamkos to a new deal in 2011 (5 x $7.5M), Lecavalier was already on the books at $7.7M AAV (with a cap hit of $10M that previous season).

Not to mention the Kucherov deal signed during Yzerman's final summer in Tampa, which matched the $9.5M AAV of Stamkos at the time, including a $12M first season.

My point is that wearing the C has a list of criteria that is different than the criteria for contract negotiations. It's not inherently a magical guarantee that you're paid the most. And specifically for Detroit, I don't want to sound like I'm slighting Dylan Larkin. He's a very good player and has made wonderful progress to become a very good captain. But by the time Raymond and Seider are 2-3 years into their new deals, they'll both be better players than Larkin. So 1) Detroit is fortunate that they're getting new deals now instead of in another 2-3 years, and 2) keeping Larkin as the top dog in salary is not sustainable long term (both from a performance-reward standpoint and the natural inflation of the cap and negotiations over time).

Seider will get paid. If it's a slightly shorter deal this time around to hit a certain cap hit, ok. But these two deals for him and Raymond will likely be the last max deals that even have a chance to stay under Dylan's cap hit. (For example, if by the time Edvinsson finishes his ELC, if he's looking every bit as valuable as Seider, I guarantee he gets an AAV north of $9M. The cap will be higher by then, and Detroit will be leaning more on players that are Simon's age than players like Larkin.)

So hopefully all the kids provide great value on their current deals, and the Wings can have the first world problem of paying high salaries to great players for new deals because they're contending for championships. But if the kids pan out, the money will keep going up, regardless of who is captain.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

8 year contract = "Red Wing for life!"
7 year contract = "omg he wants to leave as a free agent ASAP"

Yup. It’s Lemiuex’s revenge.

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

Lowering term to save $500K or maintain some ceiling with Larkin's cap hit would be monumentally stupid.

You save $500K a year and maybe end up paying Seider $12M - $13M/year on his next contract. Stupid.

I get wanting to establish that you're not going to get gouged, but if anybody else in the organization pans out to the point that they can ask for more than Seider/Larkin, that's a nice problem to have.

 

[Euro Twins]

Lowering term to save $500K or maintain some ceiling with Larkin's cap hit would be monumentally stupid.

You save $500K a year and maybe end up paying Seider $12M - $13M/year on his next contract. Stupid.

I get wanting to establish that you're not going to get gouged, but if anybody else in the organization pans out to the point that they can ask for more than Seider/Larkin, that's a nice problem to have.

If you save 500k/year over 7 seasons it's 3.5m. Add that to 8.5m and you have 12m. It's not really that big of a deal tbh. You eat it on the "8th" year but regardless if he gets a contract after a 7 or 8 year deal won't really affect his next contract amount

This is objectively false. Yzerman became the GM in Tampa in May of 2010 when Stamkos was still on his rookie deal. When he inked Stamkos to a new deal in 2011 (5 x $7.5M), Lecavalier was already on the books at $7.7M AAV (with a cap hit of $10M that previous season).

Not to mention the Kucherov deal signed during Yzerman's final summer in Tampa, which matched the $9.5M AAV of Stamkos at the time, including a $12M first season.

My point is that wearing the C has a list of criteria that is different than the criteria for contract negotiations. It's not inherently a magical guarantee that you're paid the most. And specifically for Detroit, I don't want to sound like I'm slighting Dylan Larkin. He's a very good player and has made wonderful progress to become a very good captain. But by the time Raymond and Seider are 2-3 years into their new deals, they'll both be better players than Larkin. So 1) Detroit is fortunate that they're getting new deals now instead of in another 2-3 years, and 2) keeping Larkin as the top dog in salary is not sustainable long term (both from a performance-reward standpoint and the natural inflation of the cap and negotiations over time).

Seider will get paid. If it's a slightly shorter deal this time around to hit a certain cap hit, ok. But these two deals for him and Raymond will likely be the last max deals that even have a chance to stay under Dylan's cap hit. (For example, if by the time Edvinsson finishes his ELC, if he's looking every bit as valuable as Seider, I guarantee he gets an AAV north of $9M. The cap will be higher by then, and Detroit will be leaning more on players that are Simon's age than players like Larkin.)

So hopefully all the kids provide great value on their current deals, and the Wings can have the first world problem of paying high salaries to great players for new deals because they're contending for championships. But if the kids pan out, the money will keep going up, regardless of who is captain.

So you're saying they signed Stamkos to less aav than their captain was getting at the time?

 

[Henkka]

Well shit. Mo will leave us as a free agent. Book it.

Just like Hedman has been leaving Tampa now twice as UFA.

And how Larkin was signed for 6 years with the 2nd contract, and he did leave Detroit as UFA.

 

[norrisnick]

Brisebois signed vasy to his current deal. I'm really not sure the point your making here. And furthermore the point you made about Datsyuk and Zetterberg in 08 when neither of them was captain is silly. Lidtsrom was captain and made more than both. Yes Z became captain after lids retired and they had both already been signed to their contracts but Zetterberg has a extremely front loaded contract.

Edit: I just noticed you tried to switch from vasy to Kuch without me noticing.

Yes Yzerman did sign Kuch to more than Stamkos. I'm sure after talking to stammer about it too. He's a 100 point player at the time of signing. It also was not his deal that he signed coming off an elc.

Congratulations, you found the one player Yzerman signed to a deal worth more than Stammers. Nikita f***ing kucherov. Top 3 player in the league.

Check the names of posters, my dude.

And yes, if you make an incorrect blanket statement in an attempt to bolster a shaky argument someone is going to point it out. It's almost as if Kucherov is an example of a younger more valuable player that made more money than the long standing captain of a team...

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

Just like Hedman has been leaving Tampa now twice as UFA.

And how Larkin was signed for 6 years with the 2nd contract, and he did leave Detroit as UFA.

Or how Pietrangelo left St. Louis.
Or how Stamkos left Tampa Bay.
Or how Bobrovsky left Columbus.
Or how Panarin left Columbus.

My original comment was meant to be more tongue in cheek but I don't think we can ignore that it could mean Seider is a red wing for less time.

 

[JediOrderPizza]

Or how Pietrangelo left St. Louis.
Or how Stamkos left Tampa Bay.
Or how Bobrovsky left Columbus.
Or how Panarin left Columbus.

My original comment was meant to be more tongue in cheek but I don't think we can ignore that it could mean Seider is a red wing for less time.

My nightmare scenario is we still suck and the Senators are good so he joins his buddy Stutzle.

 

[izlez]

My nightmare scenario is we still suck and the Senators are good so he joins his buddy Stutzle.

And then Debrincat leaves to play with his buddies Seider and Stutzle
And then Larkin leaves to play with his buddies Seider Stutzle and Debrincat



My god these guys need to hurry up and start playing hockey already so we have something to talk about

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

If you save 500k/year over 7 seasons it's 3.5m. Add that to 8.5m and you have 12m. It's not really that big of a deal tbh. You eat it on the "8th" year but regardless if he gets a contract after a 7 or 8 year deal won't really affect his next contract amount



So you're saying they signed Stamkos to less aav than their captain was getting at the time?

If it's 7, yeah. If it's 6 or even five that's pretty stupid.

 

[heyfolks]

Mo and Lucas have become very close friends. That means something only in this sense, they want to play together. It won't mean a discount, just a sincere interest.

As for the Larkin ceiling, I don't buy it. Give the guy 9.5 for 8 and dump Maatta, Holl, whatever to get under the cap. Fill in that roster with a prospect who is going to make the team anyway. Welcome to the NHL ND. Kane and Tarasenko are on your wings.

 

[19 for president]

I don't hate the idea of off setting contracts. And Ray's deal has the potential for way more savings than a Seider deal does because Dmen's pay scale growth rarely matches forwards. The only dmen that go crazy are offensive guys, and while I think Seider will end up in the 50 point range he is never going to be Karlsson 2.0.

A few things to consider as well. This deal will likely set the pay scale for Ed in a few seasons if he turns out to be as good as we all want him to be. Its hard to carry multiple big time spend dmen on a roster, so Yzerman eeking out every bit of cost savings with an eye towards the future makes sense.

A shorter contract also sets us up better for that potential 2nd contract later. He'll be 30 if its say a 6 year deal. That puts you in a better spot for a 2nd deal because you'll be buying more useful years on a long term deal, which a lot of guys push for even though it almost always ends with semi dead cap towards the end. Its one of the reasons I don't love 8 year deals unless its a guy like Ray who started very early in the NHL and will only be around 30 when that 8 year deal expires. The NHL is now a young man's league.

Unless you are getting some sort of crazy deal or you are already super cap strapped (long term) I don't love 8 year deals unless a guy is entering the NHL in his post draft year or 1 year + draft year and he wasn't an overages. Guys are still looking for that big 2nd 5-8 year contract in their UFA years and I'd rather take someone to 35/36 than 38/40.

As for the above examples Stammer left after TB basically said I'm not paying and didn't really engage in contract talks. Bob and Panarin were both examples of guys leaving what is considered a super small market team. If Detroit is competitive they don't fall into this just because they are an Orig 6 team. Pietrangalo is the one I'd say could be similar, but I don't think that had to do with a how many years he was signed earlier. Just that players could desire a fresh start elsewhere, which if Detroit is still a bubble team by that point I would expect Seider to move on. But Metro Detroit has appealed to almost every Euro that has played here in the past few decades with many opting to stay here or keep houses here even after retiring. Most guys heading into their 30s are more family oriented and MI works well for that.

 

[Oddbob]

Mo and Lucas have become very close friends. That means something only in this sense, they want to play together. It won't mean a discount, just a sincere interest.

As for the Larkin ceiling, I don't buy it. Give the guy 9.5 for 8 and dump Maatta, Holl, whatever to get under the cap. Fill in that roster with a prospect who is going to make the team anyway. Welcome to the NHL ND. Kane and Tarasenko are on your wings.

Well, even the insiders mentioned the Larkin thing which up til now had just been something Wings fans were pondering. I think there is some truth to it, based on how the Wings operate, as they did this near the end of Lidstrom's career where no one had a higher cap hit than him.

I still believe as of today that Larkin is still our best player as the team is way different when he is not playing.

 

[Henkka]

My nightmare scenario is we still suck and the Senators are good so he joins his buddy Stutzle.

Maybe both will join their buddy Draisaitl at Edmonton.

This is just nonsense whining crap.

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

Well, even the insiders mentioned the Larkin thing which up til now had just been something Wings fans were pondering. I think there is some truth to it, based on how the Wings operate, as they did this near the end of Lidstrom's career where no one had a higher cap hit than him.

I still believe as of today that Larkin is still our best player as the team is way different when he is not playing.

1. Lidstrom being the "Highest paid" Wing at the end of his career was really only possible due to the lack of term limits at the time. If you hack the last four years off Zetterberg's deal his cap hit goes from $6.1M/year to $7.6M/year.

Not to mention Datsyuk was making $6.7M while Lidstrom was signing $6.2M deals his last couple years.

2. You can't really determine that Larkin is the best player because the team is different without him when you haven't seen the team without Seider.

We're awful without Larkin, but I don't even wanna know what we'd be like with Jeff Petry as our 1RHD.

 

[norrisnick]

Well, even the insiders mentioned the Larkin thing which up til now had just been something Wings fans were pondering. I think there is some truth to it, based on how the Wings operate, as they did this near the end of Lidstrom's career where no one had a higher cap hit than him.

I still believe as of today that Larkin is still our best player as the team is way different when he is not playing.

Remember the team pre Seider? Mo hasn't missed a game to show how f***ed we are without him.

 

[Axel Sandy Pelikan]

1. Lidstrom being the "Highest paid" Wing at the end of his career was really only possible due to the lack of term limits at the time. If you hack the last four years off Zetterberg's deal his cap hit goes from $6.1M/year to $7.6M/year.

Not to mention Datsyuk was making $6.7M while Lidstrom was signing $6.2M deals his last couple years.

2. You can't really determine that Larkin is the best player because the team is different without him when you haven't seen the team without Seider.

We're awful without Larkin, but I don't even wanna know what we'd be like with Jeff Petry as our 1RHD.

And to be fair, when you're comparing 44-54M caps against 89M or more...

$7M against a 49m cap is around 12M now. Nick Lidstrom's contract was absolutely massive for the time. The Larkin thing is a bit harder to defend. He's making about 10% of the cap. Lidstrom ranged from like 12-15% of the cap for those years nobody could make more than him.

 

[EXTRAS]

I don't like giving guys I see as 40-50 point dmen big money contracts. I think those are reserved for the 70-80 point dmen. I think the 9-10m come back to bite you a bit more with the 40-50 point guys, as I don't think the defense can consistently make up for 30-40 point difference. Just me though.

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

I don't like giving guys I see as 40-50 point dmen big money contracts. I think those are reserved for the 70-80 point dmen. I think the 9-10m come back to bite you a bit more with the 40-50 point guys, as I don't think the defense can consistently make up for 30-40 point difference. Just me though.

It's almost like a defenseman's job is to play... Defense.

 

[EXTRAS]

It's almost like a defenseman's job is to play... Defense.

A defensemans job is to do both. If the redwing's don't believe seider will be running the powerplay long term (maybe pelikka or edvinsson) then I don't think seider is worth 9m.

I personally don't want a 9m trouba type. I love seider though.

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

A defensemans job is to do both. If the redwing's don't believe seider will be running the powerplay long term (maybe pelikka or edvinsson) then I don't think seider is worth 9m.

I personally don't want a 9m trouba type. I love seider though.

Would you pay 25 year old Shea Weber $9M?

His career high was 56 points...