Speculation: Raymond Seider Contract Speculation

[JoesuffP]

Correct me if I’m wrong but hasn’t the cap barely moved in the last 3 years?

 

[Oddbob]

Makar signed that 6 year contract in 2021. If we want to sign Seider to an 8 year contract in 2024, what Makar makes is, unfortunately, not very relevant.

I get that, it was more showing how far off Makar that Seider is. Even with the cap up, 8 mil for current 40-50 pt defenders with 23 a night is a lot to give up.

Correct me if I’m wrong but hasn’t the cap barely moved in the last 3 years?

True, but this offseason it jumped 3 mil or so, which is the biggest jump since before Covid.

Regardless of what people think, it’s not a good look that two of our core guys don’t have contracts going into August.

This means nothing, plenty of teams have gone late in the summer with RFA's unsigned. Toronto went into the season with Nylander unsigned not that long ago. There is also still other bigger name RFA's without deals currently.

 

[norrisnick]

Did I say Seider shouldn't get that money? No, I did not! I said he currently isn't worth the current money, and neither are the other youngsters learning their way in the NHL. Minnesota is also taking a massive risk that Faber isn't a flash in the pan with only one season under his belt. Not saying he is, but lots of defenders have awesome rookie seasons and then never improve ala guys like Barrett Jackman who won the Calder but was then only a decent defender after that.

I would have given Seider 8x8.5 in like February, but something tells me Claude is doing anti Wing things and trying to get Seider 10 or something, otherwise why is he not signed yet.

I'm sorry that I'm misinterpreting the many statements of "x isn't worth y" as some sort of opinion that "x shouldn't be paid y." My mistake.

It's probably more likely that Yzerman is trying to squeeze Mo and Ray ala Larkin, but all he did with Dylan and all he's done with these two is let them get more and more expensive. These deals should have been signed last summer if he wanted them cheaper. But now, with another season and many more comparable contracts signed around the league, the deals are only going to get bigger and bigger.

True, but this offseason it jumped 3 mil or so, which is the biggest jump since before Covid.

$4.5M. Or just shy of one Chiarot.

 

[Oddbob]

I'm sorry that I'm misinterpreting the many statements of "x isn't worth y" as some sort of opinion that "x shouldn't be paid y." My mistake.

Your mistake, only not sarcastically as you mean. A player can get paid an amount above what they should, because they are young, and you are paying for potential, it doesn't equate to them currently being worth that amount. If you can't understand that players these days are getting paid for their potential rather than current worth, than that is on you. If Seider is currently worth 8, then there are about 20 or so other defenders ahead of him that need a 1-2 million bump in salaries.

Seider is very good and hopefully will become great, but he isn't considered a top 20 dman around the league, YET!

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

I am not saying Seider shouldn't get that, but Power and Sanderson also aren't yet worth their deals. If 9 mil gets you 42 pts and only 23 a night that is a stiff overpay. We will give Seider the money because we hope he gets better.

If Seider stays what he is, I can't be the only one that would be disappointed at 8+ mil a year for that. I think Seider will get there, but he isn't in the 9 mil category yet.

When you spend big money on a defender they need to be playing at least 24 a night in all situations.

Blame the coach, not Seider. There were too many nights Seider played less than Petry and that’s on Fester.

 

[Oddbob]

Blame the coach, not Seider. There were too many nights Seider played less than Petry and that’s on Fester.

Oh I do. I am greatly worried that he is not the right coach for skill players. Seems like he tries to dumb their games down which is crap. I have been saying I was worried about it since the end of last (22-23) season. Seider's style of play is way different than under Blashill. Our team was crap defensively that year, but Seider played more and took a lot more risks which is why he was so good. I think Lalonde and and/or Boughner are trying to make us "better" defensively, but asking guys who can make skill plays with the puck to ring it around the boards to no one is such a dumb strategy. Seider was doing this a lot from behind the net, ringing it around the boards to the blueline with no one there, and he wasn't doing that as a rookie, so to me that has to be a coaching thing, unless he forgot how to play or something.

Seider to me is at his best when he hangs on to the puck with patience and then make the play he thinks is best in the moment, like he did his rookie season. He was so calm with it and took time to make a good play. Sure sometimes the play didn't work or was picked off, but the only way to create offence is to take chances. Last year in particular he basically got rid of it very quickly most of the time.

Yet, Chiarot can skate it up ice like he thinks he is Bobby Orr and pass it no one or directly to the opposition and apparently the coaches never say to cut it out.

 

[norrisnick]

Your mistake, only not sarcastically as you mean. A player can get paid an amount above what they should, because they are young, and you are paying for potential, it doesn't equate to them currently being worth that amount. If you can't understand that players these days are getting paid for their potential rather than current worth, than that is on you. If Seider is currently worth 8, then there are about 20 or so other defenders ahead of him that need a 1-2 million bump in salaries.

Seider is very good and hopefully will become great, but he isn't considered a top 20 dman around the league, YET!

He should be. 31 D outscored Seider this past season. There aren't 20 of them I'd pick ahead of Mo if I needed a defensive stop.

 

[Indrid Cold]

I'm confused here. Walman was a bad signing and they didn't keep him. Yeah, they had to pay to move the deal (which sucked), but they cleared one of the dead weight contracts that everyone would be mad about. Oh wait, Walman can dance before he gives the puck away so his bad contract is okay.

They traded him to make FA period feasible. They were seriously in on Stammer, but when the Nashville deal came through, it was obvious the Wings would have to sell more to fit him in and it didn't make sense at that point. They got rid of Walman and not someone else because Walman burned his bridge in Detroi

I would think that without the other bad signings, Y wouldn't be desperate to get out from under Walman. He could bury Jake in the line up like he's going to do with Woll this year.

 

[Redwing66]

Faber just signed 8x8.5
Owen Power signed for 7x8.35
Miro Heiskanen signed for 8x8.45
Jake Sanderson signed 8x8.05

Seider is better than all of them except Heiskanen, though I think he could become as good or better. And Mo has played with partners that are worse than all of their partners.

If anything, this delay is making me think Yzerman is f***ing up by not having Mo signed to 8x8.5 right now. Faber signing to that deal is going to make me think Mo is pointing at it and saying "I want more."

There is no strategic advantage in the lets wait until the season is at hand to give out contracts. This strategy is fostering ill will between players and management, hogties the moves you make during free agency and will most likely cost more in the end.

See what happens now that August is at hand, I guess.

 

[Henkka]

Your mistake, only not sarcastically as you mean. A player can get paid an amount above what they should, because they are young, and you are paying for potential, it doesn't equate to them currently being worth that amount.

Yzerman's signing history has proven how for 100% after ELC contracts, he does not want to pay for 8 years (for potential).

He rather cuts the term and will use those saved millions elsewhere.

 

[lilidk]

Yzerman's signing history has proven how for 100% after ELC contracts, he does not want to pay for 8 years (for potential).

He rather cuts the term and will use those saved millions elsewhere.

Overpay to third pair defenseman , get extra goaltender , pay extra for forwards with health issues.
Longer Yzerman wait more he will pay for core players.

 

[Henkka]

Overpay to third pair defenseman , get extra goaltender , pay extra for forwards with health issues.
Longer Yzerman wait more he will pay for core players.

That what he did at Tampa and it ended up being 2 Stanley Cup wins.

 

[norrisnick]

That what he did at Tampa and it ended up being 2 Stanley Cup wins.

Tampa didn't win anything during the bridges to Hedman, Stamkos, and Kucherov.

 

[SirloinUB]

Seider got completely screwed over with his usage last year, so I doubt it.

"screwed over"

 

[raymond23]

"screwed over"

Quality discussion post

Why don't you tell me how he didn't?

 

[Henkka]

Tampa didn't win anything during the bridges to Hedman, Stamkos, and Kucherov.

But the doom and gloom didn't happen after those bridge deals.

The consensus seems to be how bridge deal is a total failure and you should go 8 years at any cost and it's the only reasonable way.

How the whole point for long deal is to overpay at first years and then get a steal on later years.

But why overpay on first years, when they never had to overpay? Not for those bridges and not for the 3rd deals after that. That could be Yzerman logic, outside from the consensus.

Still, Yzerman has not signed any player to 8-year deal after an ELC.

Hedman - ELC - 5-year - 8-year
Stamkos - ELC - 5-year - 8-year
Kucherov - ELC - 3-year - 8-year
Vasilevskiy - ELC - 3-year - 8-year
Killorn - ELC - 2-year - 7-year
Palat - ELC - 3-year - 5-year


Signed by Brisebois:
Point - ELC - 3-year - 8-year
Cirelli - ELC - 3-year - 8-year
Sergachev - ELC - 3-year - 8-year
Cernak - ELC - 3-year - 8-year

That's been their pattern.

What team has won Stanley Cups, going after those 8-year deals straight after ELC ?

Florida had shorter 2nd deal for Barkov, so did have Colorado for MacKinnon and Makar. Tampa goes with their different pattern.

PIT and WSH has longer than 8-year deals from the older CBA.

So far these "8-year after the ELC" -teams haven't won any Cup.

They pay for the potential, and hang on themselves on the cap, missing the depth needed.

Why overpay? Never overpay, and deal with the market.

 

[norrisnick]

But the doom and gloom didn't happen after those bridge deals.

The consensus seems to be how bridge is total failure and you should go 8 years at any const and it's the only reasonable way.

How he point for long deal is to overpay at first years and then get a steal on later years.

But why overpay on first years, when they never had to overpay? Not for those bridges and not for the 3rd deals after that. That could be Yzerman logic, outside from the consensus.

Still, Yzerman has not signed any player to 8-year deal after an ELC.

Because the first years literally don't matter. That's what you aren't getting. The Wings are in no position to win in the next 2-3 seasons because the drafted core, isn't even in the lineup yet. We aren't winning with Talbot, We aren't winning with Kane in the top 6, we aren't winning with Chiarot in the top 2, etc...

Until these guys are pushed down and out of the lineup by the kids, the cap space we have now, is irrelevant. The cap will be exponentially more important in 3-4-5-6 years when we are hopefully knocking on the door to the latter stages of the playoffs. I'd much rather add a key piece at that point, than have to get rid of one to give Mo and Ray raises after their bridges. And the expiry of those hypothetical bridges is also when the next wave of ELCs will need 2nd contracts. If you can lock in two key pieces for 8 years and not have to worry about them, you do it. Overpaying them now by $1-2M/yr in the hopes to be underpaying them $1-2M/yr in 3-4 years is objectively better than paying them market value all the way through. If we were in compete mode now? Sure, bridge the f*** out of everyone. But we aren't. Not even close.

You "joked" about it earlier in the thread, but I'd much rather have Mo and Ray locked in for 8 years than Kane or Tarasenko the next year or two. When the Wings compete again, they'll be an odd footnote in the rebuild. Like David Perron. 5 years from now, people will be surprised to learn he ever played for the Wings. Much like his time in Edmonton or Anaheim...

 

[Ed Ned and Leddy]

ah got fake Friedmanned, disregard.

 

[norrisnick]

ah got fake Friedmanned, disregard.

You kind gentleman... that's HINC not HNIC Fried...

 

[Ed Ned and Leddy]

You kind gentleman... that's HINC not HNIC Fried...

Yeah I’m sorry man that’s on me lol. My friends send me this shit at work and I should probably verify.

Wish Elon would crack down on all these fake accounts but I guess I should also not be a dummy haha.

 

[norrisnick]

Yeah I’m sorry man that’s on me lol. My friends send me this shit at work and I should probably verify.

Wish Elon would crack down on all these fake accounts but I guess I should also not be a dummy haha.

I mean, that's half the reason he bought the platform in the first place. Completely destroy any credibility in what's being posted anywhere.

 

[SirloinUB]

Quality discussion post

Why don't you tell me how he didn't?

Getting a tough deployment is not "screwed over." As a great player he is expected to handle tough deployments. It comes with the territory.

 

[Axel Sandy Pelikan]

Quality discussion post

Why don't you tell me how he didn't?

Because teams aren't out to screw over their players. Teams do not exist to continually put every player in the most advantageous position for just that player. Like, the Red Wings are not operating for the sole benefit of Moritz Seider and them making moves that put pressure on him and give him tough assignments are because they think he can handle them best, not them trying to beat down his AAV or anything.

Just like how the team isn't going to hotrod your favorite prospect into top 6 minutes or guarantee a waiver-eligible kid a spot even though you think they'll learn better at the NHL. They don't operate for the sole benefit of individual players, but for the benefit of the team.

 

[Nnowski]

That what he did at Tampa and it ended up being 2 Stanley Cup wins.

He did not win any cups with Tampa

 

[Axel Sandy Pelikan]

He did not win any cups with Tampa

Oh good god. No, they didn't win when he was there. But holy mother of f***, the team that won the Cups in Tampa was Yzerman's roster.

JBB did a good job keeping it on the tracks... but come on, the whole core that won so much in Tampa was Yzerman's guys signed to Yzerman's contracts.