Tribute Rasmus Sandin Discussion Thread

[Fogelhund]

Muzzin has full NTC until 2023/24, why is he waiving that to likely go to some worse team?

Muzzin is going nowhere for next year so if you can't fit Chychrun without moving Muzzin it isn't going to work

That right there, is the key.

 

[zeke]

That right there, is the key.

More key is that Muzzin is really good and trading him is a bad idea.

 

[aingefan]

Thought Sandin played his most confident and assertive game in awhile last night.
His one-on-one coverage can be spotty, but good game overall.

 

[darrylsittler27]

Under normal.circumstances Dubas' wouldn't trade Sandin. But he has to win now.

 

[GQS]

Under normal.circumstances Dubas' wouldn't trade Sandin. But he has to win now.

Why do the Leafs have to WIN NOW? I get that we all want to see the Leafs have playoff success, but I don't see why we need to start trading more picks and prospects to make a move for a player that may or may not make that huge a difference.

Dubas has done a pretty decent job in building a good prospect pool that the Leafs haven't had in many years thanks to multiple Leafs GMs drafting poorly. If we're going to move some our good prospects and picks for a player at least let it be for a major star or something.

 

[Maplebeasts]

More key is that Muzzin is really good and trading him is a bad idea.

I think Muzzin is important in that he brings elements to our D that other's dont, specifically a willingness to be physical and a hard shot from the point. I don't see the argument though that he's been good this year. At even strength he has a negative relative corsi%, a gf% under 50, a xgf% under 50, negative relative xgf% and his zone starts aren't even massively skewed towards the defensive zone. The only thing I can think of to support him is that Holl was so spectacularly bad up until December that it would have been hard to put up good numbers up to that point in time.

 

[Maplebeasts]

Sandin has lots of work to do in the off season, His foot speed is less than NHL level. He guessing vs reading the play. He's physically weak. On the positive side he's a great passer. He's young and has time to develop.

His mistakes can be glaring but he has been analytically the best defenseman on the team as far as driving play in the right direction.

 

[Zybalto]

I think Muzzin is important in that he brings elements to our D that other's dont, specifically a willingness to be physical and a hard shot from the point. I don't see the argument though that he's been good this year. At even strength he has a negative relative corsi%, a gf% under 50, a xgf% under 50, negative relative xgf% and his zone starts aren't even massively skewed towards the defensive zone. The only thing I can think of to support him is that Holl was so spectacularly bad up until December that it would have been hard to put up good numbers up to that point in time.

Yea, the numbers are skewed pretty bad from earlier in the year.

After Holl came back from that benching he took:

Muzzin/Holl numbers post-benching:

Ozone faceoff%: 42.57
xGF%: 55.43
Goal Differential: 57.35

Pretty damn good shutdown numbers and pretty much on par to what we are used to from them.

 

[zeke]

I think Muzzin is important in that he brings elements to our D that other's dont, specifically a willingness to be physical and a hard shot from the point. I don't see the argument though that he's been good this year. At even strength he has a negative relative corsi%, a gf% under 50, a xgf% under 50, negative relative xgf% and his zone starts aren't even massively skewed towards the defensive zone. The only thing I can think of to support him is that Holl was so spectacularly bad up until December that it would have been hard to put up good numbers up to that point in time.

The relative stats don't mean too much tbh - Sandin and the bottom pairing's dominance out there means that all four top 4 guys are negative relative to team, despite all actually putting up healthy numbers. The leafs are the best possession team in hockey and somebody has to be in the negative. Not surprising that the guys getting the toughest matchups would be the ones in the negative.

Muzzin 53.1xgf% 5v5, while facing the toughest usage on the team. Still very good, even if the other dmen have done better in the easier matchups.

Yes, he hasn't been up to his usual standards so far, but every player has slumps.

 

[Maplebeasts]

Yea, the numbers are skewed pretty bad from earlier in the year.

After Holl came back from that benching he took:

Muzzin/Holl numbers post-benching:

Ozone faceoff%: 42.57
xGF%: 55.43
Goal Differential: 57.35

Pretty damn good shutdown numbers and pretty much on par to what we are used to from them.

I see. Let's hope for the team's sake that they can keep this current level of play up.

 

[Maplebeasts]

The relative stats don't mean too much tbh - Sandin and the bottom pairing's dominance out there means that all four top 4 guys are negative relative to team, despite all actually putting up healthy numbers. The leafs are the best possession team in hockey and somebody has to be in the negative. Not surprising that the guys getting the toughest matchups would be the ones in the negative.

Muzzin 53.1xgf% 5v5, while facing the toughest usage on the team. Still very good, even if the other dmen have done better in the easier matchups.

Yes, he hasn't been up to his usual standards so far, but every player has slumps.

This makes sense. It would be hard to put up good relative stats on a team as possession dominant as the Leafs are.

 

[Bluelines]

His mistakes can be glaring but he has been analytically the best defenseman on the team as far as driving play in the right direction.

Fair, but Cody Ceci was a advance stats darling in one of his seasons... I don't put a lot of stock into stats that don't support the eye test. There are always outliers with stats that say this guy is really bad but he's been really good or visa versa. I think in a decade or so, when Sandin is done playing and we look back on his career he will be considered a decent 4 to 6 d-man. I personally don't think he will ever be a top 2 defender or a guy we will see win awards or go to the All Star game.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

Fair, but Cody Ceci was a advance stats darling in one of his seasons... I don't put a lot of stock into stats that don't support the eye test. There are always outliers with stats that say this guy is really bad but he's been really good or visa versa. I think in a decade or so, when Sandin is done playing and we look back on his career he will be considered a decent 4 to 6 d-man. I personally don't think he will ever be a top 2 defender or a guy we will see win awards or go to the All Star game.

He, unfortunately, just does not have pace and foot speed which causes all his puck race losses and blow byes .. to be a #1 or #2 in NHL today you need foot speed .. and lengthening his very very short stride at this point would be akin to a lottery win (ie very very unlikely) .. i think he can be a #4/5 type guy who specializes in da PP .. and yes there have been a few guys who have done it without any speed but they were all monsters who were huge/powerful and had amazing defensive games which Sandin will never have .. bottom line I never bet against young D because NO one can know for sure and I mean NO one in leaf mgmt or anywhere else in league either .. young D are da hardest to predict

 

[SeaOfBlue]

He, unfortunately, just does not have pace and foot speed which causes all his puck race losses and blow byes .. to be a #1 or #2 in NHL today you need foot speed .. and lengthening his very very short stride at this point would be akin to a lottery win (ie very very unlikely) .. i think he can be a #4/5 type guy who specializes in da PP .. and yes there have been a few guys who have done it without any speed but they were all monsters who were huge/powerful and had amazing defensive games which Sandin will never have .. bottom line I never bet against young D because NO one can know for sure and I mean NO one in leaf mgmt or anywhere else in league either .. young D are da hardest to predict

Or he could be a really good #3, which is what I was predicting he could realistically be the entire time since we drafted him. But people got ahead of themselves and expected him to be Rielly's replacement as a #1 superstar.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

Or he could be a really good #3, which is what I was predicting he could realistically be the entire time since we drafted him. But people got ahead of themselves and expected him to be Rielly's replacement as a #1 superstar.

Yes it is possible .. it may also depend on which way da game is going .. i think we can all see da big nasty fast Dman is becoming more and more sparse .. it may be in 10 years there may only be 1 left per team who knows??????????? .. but agree with you due to his stride I can't see him ever in top 2 unless he is smart enough and skilled enough to reinvent his stride in a summer or 2 then all bets are off

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Yes it is possible .. it may also depend on which way da game is going .. i think we can all see da big nasty fast Dman is becoming more and more sparse .. it may be in 10 years there may only be 1 left per team who knows??????????? .. but agree with you due to his stride I can't see him ever in top 2 unless he is smart enough and skilled enough to reinvent his stride in a summer or 2 then all bets are off

If he doesn't become a top 2 defenseman, it does not really concern me. Obviously it would be great if he could, but we would still have a high end Rielly-Sandin duo for many years if he just reached quality #3 territory... He needs more time on his defensive game (and his skating, but that concerns me less) which is why I said he should have been in the AHL for at least the first half of the year, but he is also very young. Short of completely plateauing, he will almost certainly become a solid 2nd pairing defenseman by the time he hits his prime.

 

[zeke]

If he doesn't become a top 2 defenseman, it does not really concern me. Obviously it would be great if he could, but we would still have a high end Rielly-Sandin duo for many years if he just reached quality #3 territory... He needs more time on his defensive game (and his skating, but that concerns me less) which is why I said he should have been in the AHL for at least the first half of the year, but he is also very young. Short of completely plateauing, he will almost certainly become a solid 2nd pairing defenseman by the time he hits his prime.

I mean he's likely a pretty good 2nd pairing guy already.

 

[therealkoho]

I guess... but I am old... and my team has never won... and I am getting tired of it... I know, that is lame. But it is also real.

Funny enough, I am an optimist generally speaking. But I will call out the negative when I see it. This was a negative.

Yea, I like that point, and people forget those guys are 21 and 22 years old. I think part of this anger is how bad the real 2nd pairing has been... I mean they are "out" right now, but when they play they are not great either... however, after seeing tonight I have some new context for what bad really is ha ha. You know, I think the only difference between 8+3 and 38+37 tonight was the physicality that the bigger guys can bring... the actual play wasn't all that different if we are being honest.

huh?

I've seen them win 4 cups, you can't be that old, but I hear what you're saying

 

[therealkoho]

Especially with Jakob being 23. It's like adding a top prospect , he's still developing and has a higher ceiling than Sandin.

People are acting like Sandin is a 21 year old Nylander the way they get so offended if you want to trade him. He's not. They can draft outside the top 20 and develop another Sandin no problem. We are adding an impact top 4 D, so resetting the development (baking time) on sandin back to zero is not a concern.

If the 'Yotes were dead set with Sandin being included in any trade for Chychrun, I'd have no problem with it as long as they took Mrazek, and Ritchie 40% retention back in the deal and sent us Wedgewood

 

[wingman75]

huh?

I've seen them win 4 cups, you can't be that old, but I hear what you're saying

I have not seen them win... but a lot of us who haven't are 'old' now too... a full generation has never seen the team lift the cup. The stories from my father about the great teams from the 60s really geared me up... and then bang! Failure. We had a couple great runs, but obviously not great enough.

 

[barilko05]

I have not seen them win... but a lot of us who haven't are 'old' now too... a full generation has never seen the team lift the cup. The stories from my father about the great teams from the 60s really geared me up... and then bang! Failure. We had a couple great runs, but obviously not great enough.

What's frustrating for fans of a "certain age" is not so much the fact we haven't won a cup since '67, but that we've never ever gotten to a final! I've watched this team be on the doorstep during 5 conference finals and come up short each time. '78, 93 (don't get me started), 94, 99 and 02. And only a handful of teams are also in that category currently. Arizona, Minnesota, Winnipeg, Columbus and Seattle, of course. That's what hurts for me the most. Not just being unable to cross the finish line...but crapping out on the last lap and not even finishing the race.

 

[Menzinger]

I'm ot a fan of putting hard ceilings on a guy like him so soon.

His puck skills are absolutely fantastic; it's other aspects of his game that will ultimately determine where he settles in

 

[TheGoldenJet]

I mean he's likely a pretty good 2nd pairing guy already.

Pretty good if your team’s aiming for a lottery pick, that is.

 

[Bluelines]

He, unfortunately, just does not have pace and foot speed which causes all his puck race losses and blow byes .. to be a #1 or #2 in NHL today you need foot speed .. and lengthening his very very short stride at this point would be akin to a lottery win (ie very very unlikely) .. i think he can be a #4/5 type guy who specializes in da PP .. and yes there have been a few guys who have done it without any speed but they were all monsters who were huge/powerful and had amazing defensive games which Sandin will never have .. bottom line I never bet against young D because NO one can know for sure and I mean NO one in leaf mgmt or anywhere else in league either .. young D are da hardest to predict

Good post.

 

[zeke]

Pretty good if your team’s aiming for a lottery pick, that is.

Pretty good for a regular average NHL team.