Rantanen vs Necas points race to end of season.

[GIN ANTONIC]

necas fitting in very well. Drury looks good too

He has a motor and good hockey IQ. Not super high skill (sorry sorry Avs fans please don't shout death threats at me!) but he is a very useful player and definitely can provide more offense than he's shown on that stat sheet. When he does score or get in on 2 on 1s and things like that it sort of catches you off guard at what he is capable of at times. Could absolutely get himself to a good 3C level in the league.

 

[Finlandia WOAT]

Drury reminds me of Brandon Sutter, in that he's going to trick a lot of people into thinking he's good defensively when he's actually not

 

[the_fan]

You should start a Drury thread!

For the next Poster.. you should start a Hall thread.lol

What about the 2nd and 4th round picks Avs got in return and Nils Juntorp which the Canes got?

We need threads for all

 

[Czechboy]

What about the 2nd and 4th round picks Avs got in return and Nils Juntorp which the Canes got?

We need threads for all

The trade tree thread will be amazing.lol

 

[a mangy Meowth]

Please go ahead and do just that. Literally no one is stopping you

Sure, but pay attention because I'm only going to explain this once.

It was and is MY OPINION that it was very funny to start with "I'm a huge fan of the player" and then proceed to write a short essay mentioning only his weaknesses, suggest that he'll likely regress due to coaching (lol), and then finish it off by trying to paint a negative picture of the player using a 3 game sample size of team stats from his debut.

I thought it was funny, emotionally revealing, and very uncharitable towards the player. And hey, at least he threw in that little bit about being sad they traded him or something - very heartfelt.

 

[GIN ANTONIC]

Sure, but pay attention because I'm only going to explain this once.

It was and is MY OPINION that it was very funny to start with "I'm a huge fan of the player" and then proceed to write a short essay mentioning only his weaknesses, suggest that he'll likely regress due to coaching (lol), and then finish it off by trying to paint a negative picture of the player using a 3 game sample size of team stats from his debut.

I thought it was funny, emotionally revealing, and very uncharitable towards the player. And hey, at least he threw in that little bit about being sad they traded him or something - very heartfelt.

You seem to have a low bar for comedy.

People can be fans of things and still give criticism. Did the poster have to also list in the same breath all the things they think Necas is amazing at? Perhaps write an essay about him as a humanitarian and all he has done for the betterment of society?

Sure 3 game sample sizes on their own mean nothing, I guess unless you're in a playoff series in which case it's the only thing that matters at that point. However, context was brought in to show that the 3 game sample size might extrapolate over a longer timeframe, as has been shown during much of his 400+ game NHL career.

 

[a mangy Meowth]

You seem to have a low bar for comedy.

We just have different perspectives.

 

[Finlandia WOAT]

I'm a huge Necas fan but
.

 

[GIN ANTONIC]

We just have different perspectives.

It would seem that way. Which is also fine. This is an internet hockey forum. It would be incredibly dull and pointless if everyone thought the same.

 

[tarheelhockey]

If your team is performing well in a certain category, your linemates are performing well in it also, and you're not... it's a you thing.

I don’t mean to detail this into a +/- thread, but I do think there’s typically a better explanation for those kinds of gaps than performance issues.

If a player has a significantly different +/- than his own linemates, it likely comes down to deployment in some fashion. After all, they’re skating the same minutes at ES, so it would be a head-scratcher if their ES +/- wasn’t pretty similar. If there’s a systemic gap showing up between that group of players, it likely shows up in special teams (someone scored on them shorthanded) or even more likely to be EN situations. And I’m not sure I’d read a whole lot into a guy’s individual performance as it relates to being on the ice for more SHGs and ENGs against, other than that he’s obviously being deployed in offensive situations.

This is the core reason why I object to using +/- at all. It never makes sense to start from this mishmash of data and work backwards to a coherent analysis. It always makes more sense to start from the most relevant data (in this case, ES +/-) and work forward if other data is needed.

Drury reminds me of Brandon Sutter, in that he's going to trick a lot of people into thinking he's good defensively when he's actually not

Funny, I’d have thought you were going to say he reminds you of Sutter tricking people into thinking he was good offensively when he’s really not.

Drury is that kind of player, he’s kind of a C+ or B- across the board so he’s useful in the lineup but only to a point. I’m sure he’ll play close to 1000 games in the league because a guy like that always has a job. But I bet he also plays for at least 5 teams because a guy like that doesn’t move the needle, he just keeps it still.

 

[GIN ANTONIC]

@tarheelhockey

Since Necas was a regular with the Canes

Year 1 - 29th with -6 (3rd worst amongst regulars and worst forward except for Brian Gibbons… who even is that?)

Year 2 - LED THE TEAM WITH +25

Year 3 - 15th with +5 (8th best forward)

Year 4 - 17th with +5 (11th best forward, literally no one on this team was a minus except for Puljujarvi and Dylan Coughlan who were/are not good at hockey and played 17 games)

Year 5 - 32nd with -9 (Was better than Selke Staal and Michael Bunting )

Year 6 - 8th with +4 (5th best forward)

——-

If you want to say that this track record means nothing then OK. I think it shows that when Necas chooses to pay attention or at least being aware on the ice without the puck then he can be totally fine on the defensive side of things. I think the majority of the time it’s not on his radar. I don’t think it’s an effort thing as I agree he works hard and he backchecks. He just doesn’t always or often play the game smartly.

You have to also remember. Not every single minute of the game each player is going to be with their most often linemates. Sometimes there are injuries, sometimes there a line shuffling, sometimes players are on different pp or pk units.

Of course SHG and ENG affect things but wouldn’t you find it odd that a player is consistently lower than his teammates regardless of these variables?

Hes not ever the only player on the ice that’s subject to these factors and situations. If he gets a minus due to an ENG… so did 5 other guys. Is it just chance and bad luck that the the minuses seem to stack up for certain players and not others?

Defensive specialists I get. You’re not a high scoring guy and you might be tasked with stopping the other teams best players. You’re gonna get your dashes. But offense first guys with easy zone starts? You’re earning your minuses in a different way.

 

[Jixer19]

The biggest thing with Drury is that so far in the games, he has been an upgrade over some of the bottom 6 we have used. So the fact he came along with Necas in the trade, is just a solid bonus since the bottom 6 has been... interesting at times lol

 

[RoyIsALegend]

@tarheelhockey

Since Necas was a regular with the Canes

Year 1 - 29th with -6 (3rd worst amongst regulars and worst forward except for Brian Gibbons… who even is that?)

Year 2 - LED THE TEAM WITH +25

Year 3 - 15th with +5 (8th best forward)

Year 4 - 17th with +5 (11th best forward, literally no one on this team was a minus except for Puljujarvi and Dylan Coughlan who were/are not good at hockey and played 17 games)

Year 5 - 32nd with -9 (Was better than Selke Staal and Michael Bunting )

Year 6 - 8th with +4 (5th best forward)

——-

If you want to say that this track record means nothing then OK. I think it shows that when Necas chooses to pay attention or at least being aware on the ice without the puck then he can be totally fine on the defensive side of things. I think the majority of the time it’s not on his radar. I don’t think it’s an effort thing as I agree he works hard and he backchecks. He just doesn’t always or often play the game smartly.

You have to also remember. Not every single minute of the game each player is going to be with their most often linemates. Sometimes there are injuries, sometimes there a line shuffling, sometimes players are on different pp or pk units.

Of course SHG and ENG affect things but wouldn’t you find it odd that a player is consistently lower than his teammates regardless of these variables?

Hes not ever the only player on the ice that’s subject to these factors and situations. If he gets a minus due to an ENG… so did 5 other guys. Is it just chance and bad luck that the the minuses seem to stack up for certain players and not others?

Defensive specialists I get. You’re not a high scoring guy and you might be tasked with stopping the other teams best players. You’re gonna get your dashes. But offense first guys with easy zone starts? You’re earning your minuses in a different way.

lmao +/- essay

 

[GIN ANTONIC]

lmao +/- essay

What specifically would you disagree with that is in the post?

 

[RoyIsALegend]

What specifically would you disagree with that is in the post?

Assessing anything about a player’s defensive abilities or commitment to defense on freakin’ plus/minus.

I disagree with all of it.

 

[BKarchitect]

If people think being aware of the defensive side of the ice is something Rantanen pays particular attention to, boy are they in for a surprise.

Don’t get me wrong, he’s been a top 5 winger in the league the last 5 years. But not sure why we are even discussing the defensive merits of either guy here. It’s not on either’s radar and if Necas isn’t particularly adept at back checking or roughing guys up in front of his own net, it won’t really be a culture shock.

 

[GIN ANTONIC]

Assessing anything about a player’s defensive abilities or commitment to defense on freakin’ plus/minus.

I disagree with all of it.

I'm not saying he's a bad defensive player because he has low +/-. I'm saying he's not generally a good defensive player and it shows in his +/- relative to the rest of his team 80% of the time.

Top 6 since 19-20 season when Necas became a regular on the Canes he had basically the same +/- as Jordan Staal who pretty much exists to play hard minutes against the teams top players 5 on 5 and take defensive zone starts 20-25% of the time vs 6-7% for Necas.

During Necas time on the Canes Aho, Teravainen, Niederreiter, Svech, Jarvis all had double, triple or nearly quadruple for Aho in +/-.

Would you prefer a fancy Jfresh WAR projected ranking where it shows he's bottom 5% in even strength
defense because that's out there too. Giveaway vs Takeways is also unfavourable.

There's lots out there to give context and show that Necas has been defensively poor for most of his career. This is just a case where I actually think +/- shows it well relative to his other forwards.

If people think being aware of the defensive side of the ice is something Rantanen pays particular attention to, boy are they in for a surprise.

Don’t get me wrong, he’s been a top 5 winger in the league the last 5 years. But not sure why we are even discussing the defensive merits of either guy here. It’s not on either’s radar and if Necas isn’t particularly adept at back checking or roughing guys up in front of his own net, it won’t really be a culture shock.

I don't think with Rod there is going to be an option for Miko not to put in the effort with regards to defensive play and awareness. The expectation is to play a team game and use your linemates and their skillsets as best as possible. He doesn't need to be Jere Lethinen out there or anything.

 

[RoyIsALegend]

I'm not saying he's a bad defensive player because he has low +/-. I'm saying he's not generally a good defensive player and it shows in his +/- relative to the rest of his team 80% of the time.

Top 6 since 19-20 season when Necas became a regular on the Canes he had basically the same +/- as Jordan Staal who pretty much exists to play hard minutes against the teams top players 5 on 5 and take defensive zone starts 20-25% of the time vs 6-7% for Necas.

During Necas time on the Canes Aho, Teravainen, Niederreiter, Svech, Jarvis all had double, triple or nearly quadruple for Aho in +/-.

Would you prefer a fancy Jfresh WAR projected ranking where it shows he's bottom 5% in even strength
defense because that's out there too. Giveaway vs Takeways is also unfavourable.

There's lots out there to give context and show that Necas has been defensively poor for most of his career. This is just a case where I actually think +/- shows it well relative to his other forwards.

I just don’t see why it’s even relevant to discuss Necas’ defense.

No Avs fan thinks he’s good defensively, nor do we likely care. He’s here to get points.

We just watched Rantanen glide for 90% of his shifts and not give a single damn about anything on the defensive side of the puck. We aren’t expecting an upgrade in that department.

 

[Martin Skoula]

One time against Edmonton Brind'amour tasked Necas with playing man on McDavid, the idea being Necas could match McDavid's speed. I'd never seen Necas bust his butt harder.

From that I feel he'd blossom if he could go to a team and really be the man. Bit of a shame he nuked the rumored Columbus deal.

I never know what to call these guys, Kadri was the same way. It’s not really a shadow in the same way Lehtinen was but something along those lines. Give them a specific 1 on 1 matchup and they’ll get the job done, ask them to play a modern defensive system and they’re clueless. The clips from the 1 on 1 matchup will get in a highlight reel and they’ll suddenly have an invincible “elite defensive forward” reputation for years.

 

[Czechboy]

I'm not saying he's a bad defensive player because he has low +/-. I'm saying he's not generally a good defensive player and it shows in his +/- relative to the rest of his team 80% of the time.

Top 6 since 19-20 season when Necas became a regular on the Canes he had basically the same +/- as Jordan Staal who pretty much exists to play hard minutes against the teams top players 5 on 5 and take defensive zone starts 20-25% of the time vs 6-7% for Necas.

During Necas time on the Canes Aho, Teravainen, Niederreiter, Svech, Jarvis all had double, triple or nearly quadruple for Aho in +/-.

Would you prefer a fancy Jfresh WAR projected ranking where it shows he's bottom 5% in even strength
defense because that's out there too. Giveaway vs Takeways is also unfavourable.

There's lots out there to give context and show that Necas has been defensively poor for most of his career. This is just a case where I actually think +/- shows it well relative to his other forwards.


I don't think with Rod there is going to be an option for Miko not to put in the effort with regards to defensive play and awareness. The expectation is to play a team game and use your linemates and their skillsets as best as possible. He doesn't need to be Jere Lethinen out there or anything.

I'll just say that you don't need plus minus to show that Necas isn't winning a selke. I'm not even sure if anyone is arguing 'Necas is elite defensively'.

The ONLY counter I am seeing is that Rantanen is also not a great defensive player.

So you are 100% correct. Necas is not a great defensive forward.

 

[newsportsfan123]

Taylor Hall has that second line looking the best it has in years. They completely dominated the
Rangers. It’s funny because Rod had him playing on the 4th line in his debut but moved him up halfway through the Isles game. As for Rantanen? I think he had it harder than Necas. Necas played in RBAs system since 19-20, it took him forever to adjust. I believe that Rantanen never had to play on the boards or be a hard forechecker because of Mac’s zone entries. Guentzel was a good fit immediately because Pitt plays a similar system, however Rantanen will take a bit. Hall is my favorite player in the deal so far.

 

[tarheelhockey]

@tarheelhockey

Since Necas was a regular with the Canes

Year 1 - 29th with -6 (3rd worst amongst regulars and worst forward except for Brian Gibbons… who even is that?)

Year 2 - LED THE TEAM WITH +25

Year 3 - 15th with +5 (8th best forward)

Year 4 - 17th with +5 (11th best forward, literally no one on this team was a minus except for Puljujarvi and Dylan Coughlan who were/are not good at hockey and played 17 games)

Year 5 - 32nd with -9 (Was better than Selke Staal and Michael Bunting )

Year 6 - 8th with +4 (5th best forward)

——-

If you want to say that this track record means nothing then OK. I think it shows that when Necas chooses to pay attention or at least being aware on the ice without the puck then he can be totally fine on the defensive side of things. I think the majority of the time it’s not on his radar. I don’t think it’s an effort thing as I agree he works hard and he backchecks. He just doesn’t always or often play the game smartly.

You have to also remember. Not every single minute of the game each player is going to be with their most often linemates. Sometimes there are injuries, sometimes there a line shuffling, sometimes players are on different pp or pk units.

Of course SHG and ENG affect things but wouldn’t you find it odd that a player is consistently lower than his teammates regardless of these variables?

Hes not ever the only player on the ice that’s subject to these factors and situations. If he gets a minus due to an ENG… so did 5 other guys. Is it just chance and bad luck that the the minuses seem to stack up for certain players and not others?

Defensive specialists I get. You’re not a high scoring guy and you might be tasked with stopping the other teams best players. You’re gonna get your dashes. But offense first guys with easy zone starts? You’re earning your minuses in a different way.

I’m not even disagreeing about the premise that he’s usually the weak defensive link on his line.

I just don’t understand why in 2025 we’re still using +/- to talk about it. Like, I don’t understand why that stat is even published. I can understand it back in the days when the only source of info was stats that could be squeezed onto the back of a trading card. But it’s been 15 years since even strength goals for/against became a publicly available stat. The fact that this stat is buried in the NHL search engine while +/- is still on their basic stat lines is just… baffling.

Take this argument for example. So Necas has a lower +/- than his linemates. He skates in the middle 6 most of the time. I could very easily see a scenario where he’s the 6th man when the Canes pull their goalie — meaning he’s on the ice for a bunch of EN goals against, while his linemates watch from the bench. He’s also probably the only guy on his line who features on the PP, meaning he gets zero +/- credit for PP goals but gets dinged for every SH goal against. If you take those factors and combine them with being on the 2nd line (players who are neither offensively nor defensively elite) then his low +/- could easily be a matter of deployment.

To figure all that out, we have to pull his 6v5 GF/GA, his SHGF and SHGA, and also look at those numbers for his teammates, then cross-reference it all to see if there’s a pattern.

OR… we could just look at one stat and see that Necas is 3rd on the Canes in ES GA during his career. And one column over, we see that he trails Aho and Svechnikov who skate more minutes and have a LOT more ES GF, meaning their overall ES differential is much more positive (like 2x-3x moreso than Necas).

There’s still a question about linemates, but fundamentally we went straight to the point rather than wasting time slicing and dicing the stats. That’s where I don’t get why we keep using +/-, all it does it make us start farther away from the numbers we actually need.

 

[GIN ANTONIC]

I’m not even disagreeing about the premise that he’s usually the weak defensive link on his line.

I just don’t understand why in 2025 we’re still using +/- to talk about it. Like, I don’t understand why that stat is even published. I can understand it back in the days when the only source of info was stats that could be squeezed onto the back of a trading card. But it’s been 15 years since even strength goals for/against became a publicly available stat. The fact that this stat is buried in the NHL search engine while +/- is still on their basic stat lines is just… baffling.

Take this argument for example. So Necas has a lower +/- than his linemates. He skates in the middle 6 most of the time. I could very easily see a scenario where he’s the 6th man when the Canes pull their goalie — meaning he’s on the ice for a bunch of EN goals against, while his linemates watch from the bench. He’s also probably the only guy on his line who features on the PP, meaning he gets zero +/- credit for PP goals but gets dinged for every SH goal against. If you take those factors and combine them with being on the 2nd line (players who are neither offensively nor defensively elite) then his low +/- could easily be a matter of deployment.

To figure all that out, we have to pull his 6v5 GF/GA, his SHGF and SHGA, and also look at those numbers for his teammates, then cross-reference it all to see if there’s a pattern.

OR… we could just look at one stat and see that Necas is 3rd on the Canes in ES GA during his career. And one column over, we see that he trails Aho and Svechnikov who skate more minutes and have a LOT more ES GF, meaning their overall ES differential is much more positive (like 2x-3x moreso than Necas).

There’s still a question about linemates, but fundamentally we went straight to the point rather than wasting time slicing and dicing the stats. That’s where I don’t get why we keep using +/-, all it does it make us start farther away from the numbers we actually need.

Fully agree that if +/- was just tracked strictly for 5 on 5 play it would be a lot better

 

[Jacked Daniel]

I think Necas or Rantanen in Carolina with their game system and surrounding players equal lesser point totals, no matter which one plays there. And its quite the opposite whether its Necas or Rantanen playing in Colorado with their game system, coaching, and surrounding players. This is the most important point when comparing the trade winner and how well they perform in their new scenery. With that said im gonna assume Rantanens point totals will drop a bit and Necas's point totals might actually sky rocket but atleast they will rise.

 

[a mangy Meowth]

There’s still a question about linemates, but fundamentally we went straight to the point rather than wasting time slicing and dicing the stats. That’s where I don’t get why we keep using +/-, all it does it make us start farther away from the numbers we actually need.

It's like trying to build a house with rocks, while ignoring the big pile of bricks you have available to use.