Rumor: Rantanen Extension is Close???

[AllAboutAvs]

It is sooooooooo close.

 

[RoyIsALegend]

 

[expatriatedtexan]

Mikko and Nate. Man I really wish for two things...
1. There would be a way to get Mikko to look at this a bit differently. When Nate reset the market for centers, he did so by taking 100K more than McDavid was making. If Rants was willing to take 100K over the current highest paid winger we'd be talking about Bread at 11.643M. An offer of 12.5M ,100K less than a supposed MacKinnon cap offer, still represents an increase of nearly 1M over the current highest paid winger vs the 100K increase Nate took.

2. Whatever though, I just hope this isn't the last season these two monsters play together.

 

[RECKLESS]

They can easily play hard ball with Mikko.
Where the hell would he want to go and be miserable with a million or two more in a year but basically the same amount in full length of the contract (7 vs 8 years). He can call buddy EJ and ask how it feels to leave the brotherhood of Avs.

Mikko is going nowhere. But this thing might still not be close lol.

 

[MarkT]

Aren't you a fan? Isn't this just something you want? lol

What I want is for Rantanen to sign for an amount that doesn't cripple the team's cap space going forward. I honestly think he's fairly paid right now (if I'm comparing what he makes vs what MacKinnon makes), and he's going to be worth a lot less by the end of an 8 year contract. I recognize him staying at his current salary isn't realistic, but it's what I want if I'm being honest.

So it's not that I actually want the team to trade Rantanen. Why would I? - I've been watching the Avs for my entire adult life and he's one of the best players to ever lace them up for this team.

So what I'm posting about isn't based on what I want. It's based on what I think CMac should do given the reality of the situation. Sometimes a good GM has to do things that the fans are not going to be happy with.

 

[CobraAcesS]

What I want is for Rantanen to sign for an amount that doesn't cripple the team's cap space going forward. I honestly think he's fairly paid right now (if I'm comparing what he makes vs what MacKinnon makes), and he's going to be worth a lot less by the end of an 8 year contract. I recognize him staying at his current salary isn't realistic, but it's what I want if I'm being honest.

So it's not that I actually want the team to trade Rantanen. Why would I? - I've been watching the Avs for my entire adult life and he's one of the best players to ever lace them up for this team.

So what I'm posting about isn't based on what I want. It's based on what I think CMac should do given the reality of the situation. Sometimes a good GM has to do things that the fans are not going to happy with.

Well he's definitely familiar with doing that.

 

[MarkT]

By the way, if anyone wants to know why I don't think Mikko is worth anything close to what Nate is worth, look at these stats combining the past three seasons (from Natural Stat Trick):

Players	TOI (total)	GF/60	GA/60	CF%
Mikko w/o Nate	1124:51	3.63	3.31	49.80
Nate w/o Mikko	953:57	5.03	2.83	64.00
Mikko (total)	4498:42	5.33	2.87	60.71
Nate (total)	4327:48	5.73	2.76	62.30

In that same period, let's look at some other players for comparison:

Players	TOI (total)	GF/60	GA/60	CF%
Nate w/o Lehky	2635:21	5.92	2.85	61.87
Lehky w/o Nate	1013:58	2.9	3.08	48.89
Lehky (total)	2706:25	4.48	2.79	58.16
Nate w/o Val	3017:48	5.29	2.86	60.45
Val w/o Nate	1329:28	2.71	3.70	47.02
Val (total)	2639:28	4.71	3.11	57.27

What this shows is that while Mikko is still a very good player without MacKinnon, he's nowhere near MacKinnon in terms of his ability to elevate his teammates. Sure, Nate is a bit better with Rantanen than with these other linemates, but look at how much worse Rantanen is without Nate than he is in his totals. Based on these stats, Mikko's salary should be somewhere between Lehky and Nate, which is exactly where he is right now. Even considering Nate's contract was signed two years ago, Rantanen shouldn't even be sniffing a cap hit starting with 12.

 

[LOFIN]

By the way, if anyone wants to know why I don't think Mikko is worth anything close to what Nate is worth, look at these stats combining the past three seasons (from Natural Stat Trick):

To completely ignore league wide winger comparables is not something Mikko's camp is going to accept.

 

[MarkT]

To completely ignore league wide winger comparables is not something Mikko's camp is going to accept.

I think you're right, which is why I'm in favour of trading him if that is in fact true. Players who want to chase the money should chase it out the door. This team should be for players who want to get paid, but also want the team to be deep with talent. It's actually in players best interests to play for a deep team, because they are likely to experience more success. The league is littered with guys who chased money and ended up on crappy teams playing golf during the playoffs, partly because the team that signed them could no longer afford the depth to keep the team good.

Nate could have rightly gone after much more money. Makar could have too. Both signed reasonable contracts and look - the team can actually afford a relatively deep lineup (when everyone is healthy). If Mikko goes after a market comparable deal, the Avs should 100% trade him and wish him luck wherever he ends up.

 

[LOFIN]

Nate could have rightly gone after much more money. Makar could have too. Both signed reasonable contracts and look - the team can actually afford a relatively deep lineup (when everyone is healthy). If Mikko goes after a market comparable deal, the Avs should 100% trade him and wish him luck wherever he ends up.

Oh please, Nate and Makar didn't take discounts. Not at all. They got fair market value. And if the reports by Kypreos are true about what Mikko's camp is looking for, that's what he's after as well. Nothing outrageous. Frankly if the deal starts with 11, it's a discount.

And he won't be traded. The Avs would rather use him as an own rental if they can't get it done, and that's absolutely the right call. The best chance to win another cup is this year, and nothing you trade Rantanen for is going to improve those chances.

 

[Gumballhead]

By the way, if anyone wants to know why I don't think Mikko is worth anything close to what Nate is worth, look at these stats combining the past three seasons (from Natural Stat Trick):

Players	TOI (total)	GF/60	GA/60	CF%
Mikko w/o Nate	1124:51	3.63	3.31	49.80
Nate w/o Mikko	953:57	5.03	2.83	64.00
Mikko (total)	4498:42	5.33	2.87	60.71
Nate (total)	4327:48	5.73	2.76	62.30

In that same period, let's look at some other players for comparison:

Players	TOI (total)	GF/60	GA/60	CF%
Nate w/o Lehky	2635:21	5.92	2.85	61.87
Lehky w/o Nate	1013:58	2.9	3.08	48.89
Lehky (total)	2706:25	4.48	2.79	58.16
Nate w/o Val	3017:48	5.29	2.86	60.45
Val w/o Nate	1329:28	2.71	3.70	47.02
Val (total)	2639:28	4.71	3.11	57.27

What this shows is that while Mikko is still a very good player without MacKinnon, he's nowhere near MacKinnon in terms of his ability to elevate his teammates. Sure, Nate is a bit better with Rantanen than with these other linemates, but look at how much worse Rantanen is without Nate than he is in his totals. Based on these stats, Mikko's salary should be somewhere between Lehky and Nate, which is exactly where he is right now. Even considering Nate's contract was signed two years ago, Rantanen shouldn't even be sniffing a cap hit at starting with 12.

This is the kind of thing you’d see in a cutthroat arbitration hearing maybe but I don’t think it’ll fly in what will surely be his final contract negotiations. I am sure he suspects his numbers would go down most other places he could go but why would he care when it’ll pay him until retirement? He won’t be playing for numbers or money anymore.

 

[MarkT]

Oh please, Nate and Makar didn't take discounts. Not at all. They got fair market value. And if the reports by Kypreos are true about what Mikko's camp is looking for, that's what he's after as well. Nothing outrageous. Frankly if the deal starts with 11, it's a discount.

And he won't be traded. The Avs would rather use him as an own rental if they can't get it done, and that's absolutely the right call. The best chance to win another cup is this year, and nothing you trade Rantanen for is going to improve those chances.

Elias Pettersson signed for 11.5. Matthews signed for 13.25. Pastrnak at 11.25. MacKinnon is worth significantly more than all those players. 12.6 is a discount.

Erik Karlson makes 11.5, Dahlin makes 11, Doughty makes 11, Werenski makes 9.85, Seth Jones makes 9.5, McAvoy makes 9.5, ( could go on). Makar at 9 is an absolute steal.

Also, where did you get the idea that I or anyone wants him traded before the deadline? If you actually read the thread, I'm talking about a sign and trade after the season.

This is the kind of thing you’d see in a cutthroat arbitration hearing maybe but I don’t think it’ll fly in what will surely be his final contract negotiations. I am sure he suspects his numbers would go down most other places he could go but why would he care when it’ll pay him until retirement? He won’t be playing for numbers or money anymore.

I'm not showing these to Rantanen (unless he's reading this thread - in which case, Hi Mikko! I think you're great, just not as great as Nate. I hope you understand). I'm showing these to all the people here acting like Mikko deserves anything close to Nate's cap hit or that it would be a good idea to pay him the same as Nate (or close to it).

 

[Gumballhead]

Elias Pettersson signed for 11.5. Matthews signed for 13.25. Pastrnak at 11.25. MacKinnon is worth significantly more than all those players. 12.6 is a discount.

Erik Karlson makes 11.5, Dahlin makes 11, Doughty makes 11, Werenski makes 9.85, Seth Jones makes 9.5, McAvoy makes 9.5, ( could go on). Makar at 9 is an absolute steal.

Also, where did you get the idea that I or anyone wants him traded before the deadline? If you actually read the thread, I'm talking about a sign and trade after the season.



I'm not showing these to Rantanen (unless he's reading this thread - in which case, Hi Mikko! I think you're great, just not as great as Nate. I hope you understand). I'm showing these to all the people here acting like Mikko deserves anything close to Nate's cap hit or that it would be a good idea to pay him the same as Nate (or close to it).

Basically we've cultivated a true offensive star and we'll have to pay a high price for a long time to keep him around. There are worse situations to be in, but it certainly has the makings of cap handcuffs.

 

[LOFIN]

Elias Pettersson signed for 11.5. Matthews signed for 13.25. Pastrnak at 11.25. MacKinnon is worth significantly more than all those players. 12.6 is a discount.

Erik Karlson makes 11.5, Dahlin makes 11, Doughty makes 11, Werenski makes 9.85, Seth Jones makes 9.5, McAvoy makes 9.5, ( could go on). Makar at 9 is an absolute steal.

You can't look at any of these deals and compare just the dollar figure to what MacKinnon and Makar are making. You have to look at the percentage of the cap when those deals were signed, what those players were worth at the time, RFA vs UFA, number of years on a deal etc... I also fail to see how Pastrnak is relevant as a winger. His deal is relevant for Mikko though. He's going to get about the same number, but inflation and cap corrected. So something in the 12s.

Like take that McAvaoy deal for an example. It takes him all the way through his prime, while Makar is coming up at the age of 28 being able to sign the biggest UFA d-man contract in the history of the league. So in a sense yes, Makar got less AAV than he could've taken. On the other hand, he set himself up to a major payday when his current contract runs out. So it's not as simple as saying "he took a discount". I would much rather have paid him more AAV if that meant locking him up for 8 years instead of 6.

 

[MarkT]

Basically we've cultivated a true offensive star and we'll have to pay a high price for a long time to keep him around. There are worse situations to be in, but it certainly has the makings of cap handcuffs.

I think he's already provided full value for what we developed by helping us win a cup (and maybe a second this year). Sometimes though it's time to part ways, and frankly I'm not exactly excited to see 34-36 year old Mikko still making 12m preventing us from affording a competitive roster. I sincerely doubt he'll get much better at this point at things like defensive play and staying on his feet, and as he slows down I could see him really struggle to keep up at 5 on 5. It's why I'm open to moving him and replacing him with a lesser player who is either younger (like Svech, Jarvis, Necas, Laffy) or of similar age but on a shorter contract (Meier). Just overall I think this team looks better long term with 6-8m wingers than 12m ones.

 

[LOFIN]

I think he's already provided full value for what we developed by helping us win a cup (and maybe a second this year). Sometimes though it's time to part ways, and frankly I'm not exactly excited to see 34-36 year old Mikko still making 12m preventing us from affording a competitive roster. I sincerely doubt he'll get much better at this point at things like defensive play and staying on his feet, and as he slows down I could see him really struggle to keep up at 5 on 5. It's why I'm open to moving him and replacing him with a lesser player who is either younger (like Svech, Jarvis, Necas, Laffy) or of similar age but on a shorter contract (Meier). Just overall I think this team looks better long term with 6-8m wingers than 12m ones.

By that time this team is in a rebuild anyway. What is relevant, is how good of a chance there is to win a cup in the next 2-3 years. Actually 2 more years after this one, when Makar is going to cash in at like 16M AAV.

 

[Gumballhead]

By that time this team is in a rebuild anyway. What is relevant, is how good of a chance there is to win a cup in the next 2-3 years. Actually 2 more years after this one, when Makar is going to cash in at like 16M AAV.

Sometimes you have to rub peter to pay paul, amirite?

 

[MarkT]

You can't look at any of these deals and compare just the dollar figure to what MacKinnon and Makar are making. You have to look at the percentage of the cap when those deals were signed, what those players were worth at the time, RFA vs UFA, number of years on a deal etc... I also fail to see how Pastrnak is relevant as a winger. His deal is relevant for Mikko though. He's going to get about the same number, but inflation and cap corrected. So something in the 12s.

Like take that McAvaoy deal for an example. It takes him all the way through his prime, while Makar is coming up at the age of 28 being able to sign the biggest UFA d-man contract in the history of the league.

If you want similar age comparisons for Nate, here you go:
- Pastrnak: 11.25
- Dubois: 8.5
- Hintz: 8.45
- Kyrou: 8.125
- Larkin: 8.7
- Huberdeau: 10.5
- Meier: 8.8
- Horvat: 8.5
- Barzal: 9.125

So MacKinnon is head a shoulders about all these guys, and he plays center, so he should be worth significantly more (that's why winger cap hits are relevant - even if you think Pastrnak is a comparable player, he's a winger, so Nate should be making more).

For Makar, here you go:
- Werenski: 9.583
- Fox: 9.5
- Seider: 8.55
- Heiskanen: 8.45
- Power: 8.35
- Sanderson: 8.05
- Trouba: 8
- Chabot: 8
- Q. Hughes: 7.85
- Ekblad: 7.5

Are you telling me that 9 is the most Makar could have got if he was truly after making market value?

 

[shadow1]

By the way, if anyone wants to know why I don't think Mikko is worth anything close to what Nate is worth, look at these stats combining the past three seasons (from Natural Stat Trick):

Players	TOI (total)	GF/60	GA/60	CF%
Mikko w/o Nate	1124:51	3.63	3.31	49.80
Nate w/o Mikko	953:57	5.03	2.83	64.00
Mikko (total)	4498:42	5.33	2.87	60.71
Nate (total)	4327:48	5.73	2.76	62.30

In that same period, let's look at some other players for comparison:

Players	TOI (total)	GF/60	GA/60	CF%
Nate w/o Lehky	2635:21	5.92	2.85	61.87
Lehky w/o Nate	1013:58	2.9	3.08	48.89
Lehky (total)	2706:25	4.48	2.79	58.16
Nate w/o Val	3017:48	5.29	2.86	60.45
Val w/o Nate	1329:28	2.71	3.70	47.02
Val (total)	2639:28	4.71	3.11	57.27

What this shows is that while Mikko is still a very good player without MacKinnon, he's nowhere near MacKinnon in terms of his ability to elevate his teammates. Sure, Nate is a bit better with Rantanen than with these other linemates, but look at how much worse Rantanen is without Nate than he is in his totals. Based on these stats, Mikko's salary should be somewhere between Lehky and Nate, which is exactly where he is right now. Even considering Nate's contract was signed two years ago, Rantanen shouldn't even be sniffing a cap hit starting with 12.

Interesting stats, thanks.

How much of this is being driven by Colorado's 2C situation the past three years? When MacKinnon loses Rantanen, he's getting a Drouin/Lehkonen/Nichushkin/Rodrigues instead. On the flip side, Rantanen has gotten a Compher/Johansen/Mittelstadt/Newhook type.

I looked it up before the Jets game, but Colton (9) and Mittelstadt (2) put no rubber on net in the 8 games prior. Through no fault of Rantanen (19), that line got crushed and I imagine dragged his stats down.

 

[LOFIN]

So MacKinnon is head a shoulders about all these guys, and he plays center, so he should be worth significantly more (that's why winger cap hits are relevant - even if you think Pastrnak is a comparable player, he's a winger, so Nate should be making more).

And he was paid significantly more than that, but not that much less than Draisaitl and McDavid (McDavid actually got less than Draisaitl) and other top centers when you look at the % of the cap. He took significantly more money than Crosby did when he signed that 12 year contract in 2012, and not just talking about the actual AAV number.

Are you telling me that 9 is the most Makar could have got if he was truly after making market value?

If he wanted 8 years, he would've gotten more yes. But he was still and RFA player coming out of ELC, so that's why it's not comparable to what EK65, Doughty and Trouba are making.

If you want to compare contracts, you need to look at more than just the AAV.

 

[MarkT]

By that time this team is in a rebuild anyway. What is relevant, is how good of a chance there is to win a cup in the next 2-3 years. Actually 2 more years after this one, when Makar is going to cash in at like 16M AAV.

Ah, I see, yet another person who doesn't plan to be a fan in 6 years. Or... wait, do you actually want to cheer for a rebuilding team? Also, those same years Cale is going to be 32-34. Do we think he'll suck by then?

Maybe this is what makes me a heretic around here, but I seem to be one of the few people who doesn't want this team to constantly make short-term decisions to try to win a cup in a mythical "window". What I want is to try to ice a team with a genuine chance to win a cup every year, and to constantly retool and get younger where possible, while avoiding anchor contracts that will make the mythical window into a reality. Every team that ends up in a rebuild ends up there by overpaying their veterans in a vain attempt to keep the band together and by making bad decisions, usually driven by short-term thinking.

And he was paid significantly more than that, but not that much less than Draisaitl and other top centers when you look at the % of the cap. He took significantly more money than Crosby did when he signed that 12 year contract in 2012, and not just talking about the actual AAV number.

If he wanted 8 years, he would've gotten more yes. But he was still and RFA player coming out of ELC, so that's why it's not comparable to what EK65, Doughty and Trouba are making.

If you want to compare contracts, you need to look at more than just the AAV.

For f***s sake. Who are the actual comparables if not the players I listed? Some mythical unicorns? I'm starting to feel like you're not arguing in good faith here. I just took time to list off guys of similar age at the time they signed their contracts, same contract status, and you're still claiming they are not good enough.

Interesting stats, thanks.

How much of this is being driven by Colorado's 2C situation the past three years? When MacKinnon loses Rantanen, he's getting a Drouin/Lehkonen/Nichushkin/Rodrigues instead. On the flip side, Rantanen has gotten a Compher/Johansen/Mittelstadt/Newhook type.

I looked it up before the Jets game, but Colton (9) and Mittelstadt (2) put no rubber on net in the 8 games prior. Through no fault of Rantanen (19), that line got crushed and I imagine dragged his stats down.

You're welcome. My thinking is if Rantanen wants to be paid like MacKinnon, he should be able to drive his own line and elevate his linemates the way Nate can. I've watched Mikko closely since he was put with Mittestadt and now Colton. He doesn't seem to accomplish much out there. Nearly all his recent points have come when he's on the ice with Nate. Every once in a while he flashes his talent and pots one or makes a nice pass, but without Nate he looks a lot more like a passenger to me.

 

[LOFIN]

Ah, I see, yet another person who doesn't plan to be a fan in 6 years. Or... wait, do you actually want to cheer for a rebuilding team? Also, those same years Cale is going to be 32-34. Do we think he'll suck by then?

Maybe this is what makes me a heretic around here, but I seem to be one of the few people who doesn't want this team to constantly make short-term decisions to try to win a cup in a mythical "window". What I want is to try to ice a team with a genuine chance to win a cup every year, and to constantly retool and get younger where possible, while avoiding anchor contracts that will make the mythical window into a reality. Every team that ends up in a rebuild ends up there by overpaying their veterans in a vain attempt to keep the band together and by making bad decisions, usually driven by short-term thinking.

I'm not advocating "selling the farm" to try and win everything right now. But our chances to win are most likely not going to be improved in 6 years. So it does make more sense to try now.

For f***s sake. Who are the actual comparables if not the players I listed? Some mythical unicorns? I'm starting to feel like you're not arguing in good faith here. I just took time to list off guys of similar age at the time they signed their contracts, same contract status, and you're still claiming they are not good enough.

Sure, you can look at those contracts and use them as comparables, but to just use the AAV is disingenuous. Percentage of the cap is a much better way of looking at those deals, and even then you have to account RFA vs UFA, and the number of years to a deal.

You're welcome. My thinking is if Rantanen wants to be paid like MacKinnon, he should be able to drive his own line and elevate his linemates the way Nate can. I've watched Mikko closely since he was put with Mittestadt and now Colton. He doesn't seem to accomplish much out there. Nearly all his recent points have come when he's on the ice with Nate. Every once in a while he flashes his talent and pots one or makes a nice pass, but without Nate he looks a lot more like a passenger to me.

Rantanen is NOT going to be paid like MacKinnon. Let's say he gets 12.5M, he's not in the same class as MacKinnon is. Yes by AAV, but that's not how these contracts are viewed by the agents and GMs. They look at percentage of the cap. 12.5M starting next season is going to be like 13.44%, which would be significantly less than MacKinnon's 15.09%. And it would almost exactly the same % as Pastrnak, which I think is the closest comparable to Rantanen in the league. If Mikko signs for the exact same number as MacKinnon, he's taking less money than MacKinnon as the % of the cap and also taking inflation into account.

 

[MarkT]

I'm not advocating "selling the farm" to try and win everything right now. But our chances to win are most likely not going to be improved in 6 years. So it does make more sense to try now.

Yes, I agree with trying to win now. I disagree that this means we must do things now that will make a rebuild more likely in the future. There's a middle ground, and its found by not handing out huge contracts to players likely to age poorly.

Sure, you can look at those contracts and use them as comparables, but to just use the AAV is disingenuous. Percentage of the cap is a much better way of looking at those deals, and even then you have to account RFA vs UFA, and the number of years to a deal.

See, this is why I don't think you're being intellectually honest. I did look at RFA vs UFA, and the number of years, as well as age. I'll deal with cap percentage below.

Rantanen is NOT going to be paid like MacKinnon. Let's say he gets 12.5M, he's not in the same class as MacKinnon is. Yes by AAV, but that's not how these contracts are viewed by the agents and GMs. They look at percentage of the cap. 12.5M starting next season is going to be like 13.44%, which would be significantly less than MacKinnon's 15.09%. And it would almost exactly the same % as Pastrnak, which I think is the closest comparable to Rantanen in the league. If Mikko signs for the exact same number as MacKinnon, he's taking less money than MacKinnon as the % of the cap and also taking inflation into account.

All that would be true if everyone signed one year deals. But since deals are multi-year, it matters just as much what their cap percentage is in year 4 as it does when the contract was signed. MacKinnon may have been 15.09% when he signed the deal, but next year it will be less. That's one of the things that makes it a value contract. You can compare contracts with multiple years based on their cap percentage in the same year, because GMs are certainly going to factor in likely cap increases when signing multi-year deals.

 

[AllAboutAvs]

Oh please, Nate and Makar didn't take discounts. Not at all. They got fair market value. And if the reports by Kypreos are true about what Mikko's camp is looking for, that's what he's after as well. Nothing outrageous. Frankly if the deal starts with 11, it's a discount.

And he won't be traded. The Avs would rather use him as an own rental if they can't get it done, and that's absolutely the right call. The best chance to win another cup is this year, and nothing you trade Rantanen for is going to improve those chances.

In MarkT's defense he didn't say they took discounts. He said "Both signed reasonable contracts". IMO he is right. Fair market value IMO were reasonable contracts at the time.

 

[LOFIN]

In MarkT's defense he didn't say they took discounts. He said "Both signed reasonable contracts". IMO he is right. Fair market value IMO were reasonable contracts at the time.

Oh I agree on that. And I believe that's what Rantanen will get as well when all is said and done. Especially considering what Kaprizov and Marner are likely going to get.

If Rantanen is not signing for the Avs for less than MacKinnon AAV, we can revisit this discussion and call him greedy. I will agree with that.