LeBrun: Rangers interested in Tomas Hertl

[Foppberg]

He's going nowhere lol

 

[Groo]

Again--you keep going back to a vaguely defined diagram. I keep mentioning facts and hard data. It's not my problem if you refuse to "take seriously" anything that goes against your increasingly outlandish assertions about this debate. I'm still shocked that this has gone on for as long as it has. I literally didn't think that I was saying anything debatable by pointing out that Zib is a far superior player to Hertl (though Hertl is still a great player). It seemed kind of obvious, and the more I dug into it to address the things SJ fans brought up, the more obvious it became.

You want to address the fact that SJ fans have repeatedly insisted that Hertl plays with 4th liners, yet Meier is his most common ES point contributor?
You want to address the issue that Hertl has ghosted against top 10 teams (while feasting on bottom feeders), while Zib has been a ppg against the best in the league?

I notice you keep side-stepping those issues. Shall I create a diagram?

Hertl started scoring more when they finally put and left Meier on his wing. Know of any sites that breaks down linemates shift by shift? Stats really aren't my thing

 

[Sota Popinski]

Again--you keep going back to a vaguely defined diagram. I keep mentioning facts and hard data. It's not my problem if you refuse to "take seriously" anything that goes against your increasingly outlandish assertions about this debate. I'm still shocked that this has gone on for as long as it has. I literally didn't think that I was saying anything debatable by pointing out that Zib is a far superior player to Hertl (though Hertl is still a great player). It seemed kind of obvious, and the more I dug into it to address the things SJ fans brought up, the more obvious it became.

You want to address the fact that SJ fans have repeatedly insisted that Hertl plays with 4th liners, yet Meier is his most common ES point contributor?
You want to address the issue that Hertl has ghosted against top 10 teams (while feasting on bottom feeders), while Zib has been a ppg against the best in the league?

I notice you keep side-stepping those issues. Shall I create a diagram?

It's not vaguely defined. It's literally every minute these two players have been on the ice for the past 2.5 seasons, and every quantifiable thing that happened during that time. Goals, primary assists, secondary assists, giveaways, takeaways, shots for, shots against, penalties, etc.

You are calling them vaguely defined because you are too lazy to read what goes into them. I would rather have more data than less. And while there are still neanderthals in NHL front offices that scoff at advanced stats, they are far better predictors of the future performance of teams and individual players than the simple Goals, Assists, +/-

It's not my responsibility to defend the points other people have made. I waste enough time arguing my own, thank you

 

[smoneil]

Hertl started scoring more when they finally put and left Meier on his wing. Know of any sites that breaks down linemates shift by shift? Stats really aren't my thing

I don't. I just went into the game log on ESPN and did a quick tabulation of who was involved with his points. That said, this wasn't a recent thing. Meier was involved in Hertl's even strength points from the beginning of the season. By far, the two most common forwards in Hertl's production were Meier and Barabanov (they each had more than double any other forward).

 

[Kcoyote3]

I wonder if he has more points than Zibanejad now

 

[smoneil]

It's not vaguely defined. It's literally every minute these two players have been on the ice for the past 2.5 seasons, and every quantifiable thing that happened during that time. Goals, primary assists, secondary assists, giveaways, takeaways, shots for, shots against, penalties, etc.

You are calling them vaguely defined because you are too lazy to read what goes into them. I would rather have more data than less. And while there are still neanderthals in NHL front offices that scoff at advanced stats, they are far better predictors of the future performance of teams and individual players than the simple Goals, Assists, +/-

It's not my responsibility to defend the points other people have made. I waste enough time arguing my own, thank you

But their ratings ARE vaguely defined. And the things you list are mostly categories where Zib has the advantage--both career and year-to-year. The one that I would assume would be in Hertl's advantage would be "shots against," as the Rangers' defense has, for years, been built around not limiting shots, but keeping shots to the perimeter where our goalies can see them clearly. The Rangers often give up a lot of shots, but not as many grade A chances.

As for the bolded, I definitely scoff at anyone who thinks a vaguely defined diagram is a better predictor of future performance than 9 consecutive years of one player out-performing the other. But you do you.

 

[Groo]

I don't. I just went into the game log on ESPN and did a quick tabulation of who was involved with his points. That said, this wasn't a recent thing. Meier was involved in Hertl's even strength points from the beginning of the season. By far, the two most common forwards in Hertl's production were Meier and Barabanov (they each had more than double any other forward).

Well I can tell you that they had Meier teamed with Couture in in hopes of having more than 1 line contribute. Like I said I'm not a stats guy but I'm sure Logans scoring tailored off and Hertls picked back up after Boog made the change. I do have the benefit of having watched all the games though. I recall telling myself that Tomas is as good as gone if he's going to have to play all season with a couple of nobodies.(Balcers and Barabanov. Mr Must always smiles was pulled to the side and given a lecture by boog for being to moody. Not a good thing when you want him to stay.

 

[smoneil]

I wonder if he has more points than Zibanejad now

Nope, they are tied now, with Hertl playing an extra game. Incidentally, that's three more points connected to Meier. Is Meier coming with Hertl, or will he have to produce on his own?

 

[smoneil]

Well I can tell you that they had Meier teamed with Couture in in hopes of having more than 1 line contribute. Like I said I'm not a stats guy but I'm sure Logans scoring tailored off and Hertls picked back up after Boog made the change. I do have the benefit of having watched all the games though. I recall telling myself that Tomas is as good as gone if he's going to have to play all season with a couple of nobodies.(Balcers and Barabanov. Mr Must always smiles was pulled to the side and given a lecture by boog for being to moody. Not a good thing when you want him to stay.

Outside of the game against the Rangers, I won't claim to have watched a lot of SJ. It just seemed clear from the stat line that the narrative about Hertl's abysmal line-mates was at least somewhat off due to the regular presence of Meier on Hertl's score-sheet. I will say, that based on the data, you guys seem to be underselling Barabanov a bit. How is he away from the puck? Can he play the right side, or is he strictly a LW? Depending on the cost, I'd be more interested in Barabanov than Hertl (not as a knock against Hertl, but because we can't re-sign him with our cap situation, and so it seems stupid to pay what he would garner when he would be a pure rental).

 

[themelkman]

Nope, they are tied now, with Hertl playing an extra game. Incidentally, that's three more points connected to Meier. Is Meier coming with Hertl, or will he have to produce on his own?

Wonder what might happen if you put a guy who can help top talent score a bunch of goals with one of the top talents in the league. Sure sounds like a better idea than Ryan Strome

 

[67 others]

But their ratings ARE vaguely defined. And the things you list are mostly categories where Zib has the advantage--both career and year-to-year. The one that I would assume would be in Hertl's advantage would be "shots against," as the Rangers' defense has, for years, been built around not limiting shots, but keeping shots to the perimeter where our goalies can see them clearly. The Rangers often give up a lot of shots, but not as many grade A chances.

As for the bolded, I definitely scoff at anyone who thinks a vaguely defined diagram is a better predictor of future performance than 9 consecutive years of one player out-performing the other. But you do you.

Their ratings are just gibberish and unconventional ramblings.

Again that website has been around not even a year, their podcast has like 23 ratings total, which is the pretty standard "got my friends to rate my stuff" number for a business.

Their Twitter is a ghost town. Says they have 22000 followers, yet no bulk of likes or comments. The traditional "test" of if a twitter or instagram business bought followers for a startup is to look at their posts. If they don't get 30 likes or comments per 1000 subscribers, it's considered a neon flag that they purchased followers for their startup lol. Oh they will buy likes for 2 or 3 posts for $9.99 and pin them, but if you look at the bulk of their posts. 6 likes. On an account with 22000 followers lol.

Yeah, neon flag of a hack site

 

[Pavelski2112]

Another eye test vs. advanced stats argument

Change the channel Marge

 

[Kcoyote3]

Nope, they are tied now, with Hertl playing an extra game. Incidentally, that's three more points connected to Meier. Is Meier coming with Hertl, or will he have to produce on his own?

Definitely sounds like Zibanejad is head and shoulders the better player for sure.

 

[smoneil]

Wonder what might happen if you put a guy who can help top talent score a bunch of goals with one of the top talents in the league. Sure sounds like a better idea than Ryan Strome

Ryan Strome and Panarin are stapled at the hip. Panarin literally pouts when he's off Strome's line. It's a bit of a problem. Also, the difference between Strome and Hertl isn't worth what Hertl would cost. Also also, Panarin doesn't need help to score a bunch of goals (and looking at the highlights of your game tonight, Meier doesn't either. Hertl didn't really do much beyond giving the puck to the star player--he wasn't threading the needle or anything). If the Rangers are dumb enough to pay a premium for a player they can't extend, he (Hertl) would almost certainly be playing on the third line between Lafreniere and Goodrow.

 

[smoneil]

Definitely sounds like Zibanejad is head and shoulders the better player for sure.

Because Hertl gave the puck to your star player a bunch of times against a disintegrating goalie? He's still never been out-performed by Hertl in 9 years. And Hertl still only has 2 points in 12 games against the top ten teams in the league (compared to Zib's 12 in 13). Let's see where they are at the end of the season. Smart money is on the guy who has finished with more points throughout their entire careers.

 

[Pavelski2112]

Literally who cares who's better

Hertl would make the Rangers better. He'd make any team better. Whether they think it's worth it to get him as a rental is another story.

basically /thread

 

[Groo]

Outside of the game against the Rangers, I won't claim to have watched a lot of SJ. It just seemed clear from the stat line that the narrative about Hertl's abysmal line-mates was at least somewhat off due to the regular presence of Meier on Hertl's score-sheet. I will say, that based on the data, you guys seem to be underselling Barabanov a bit. How is he away from the puck? Can he play the right side, or is he strictly a LW? Depending on the cost, I'd be more interested in Barabanov than Hertl (not as a knock against Hertl, but because we can't re-sign him with our cap situation, and so it seems stupid to pay what he would garner when he would be a pure rental).

He's a tough little guy(takes a lot of hits to make the play) who's good at passing the puck and has a decent one timer. Not invisible without the puck

 

[matt trick]

Outside of the game against the Rangers, I won't claim to have watched a lot of SJ. It just seemed clear from the stat line that the narrative about Hertl's abysmal line-mates was at least somewhat off due to the regular presence of Meier on Hertl's score-sheet. I will say, that based on the data, you guys seem to be underselling Barabanov a bit. How is he away from the puck? Can he play the right side, or is he strictly a LW? Depending on the cost, I'd be more interested in Barabanov than Hertl (not as a knock against Hertl, but because we can't re-sign him with our cap situation, and so it seems stupid to pay what he would garner when he would be a pure rental).

The sharks aren’t really worth watching, but I will say if you don’t catch many Sharks games you’re missing out because of Hertl. Works incredibly hard, good defensively, equal threat to drive to the net with defenders draped all over him, deke a dman out of his jock, or wrist a shot top corner.

Meier is having a better season, but playing with Couture and Dahlen (and I’d bet more time with Karlsson) is a hell of a lot better than Barbanov and Eklund/Gregor/Balcers. I’d say Hertl is still clearly the better/more valuable player. If Hertl and Meier stay together I expect you’ll see their scoring to stay relatively consistent.

Barbanov is solid, plays hard, good playmaker, I’d move him for a mid 2nd because I’m not convinced he’s legitimately a complimentary top 6 forward (whereas I believe Dahlen will be/is). I’d also be happy to re-sign him, but his production may yield $2.5M+ Aav and I don’t think he’s worth it.

 

[67 others]

The sharks aren’t really worth watching, but I will say if you don’t catch many Sharks games you’re missing out because of Hertl. Works incredibly hard, good defensively, equal threat to drive to the net with defenders draped all over him, deke a dman out of his jock, or wrist a shot top corner.

Meier is having a better season, but playing with Couture and Dahlen (and I’d bet more time with Karlsson) is a hell of a lot better than Barbanov and Eklund/Gregor/Balcers. I’d say Hertl is still clearly the better/more valuable player. If Hertl and Meier stay together I expect you’ll see their scoring to stay relatively consistent.

Barbanov is solid, plays hard, good playmaker, I’d move him for a mid 2nd because I’m not convinced he’s legitimately a complimentary top 6 forward (whereas I believe Dahlen will be/is). I’d also be happy to re-sign him, but his production may yield $2.5M+ Aav and I don’t think he’s worth it.

Meier was only on cooters line at the start of the year. He's been with hertl for awhile now

 

[matt trick]

Meier was only on cooters line at the start of the year. He's been with hertl for awhile now

A while yes, but without looking I’d estimate Meier has had a 60/40 split with Couture vs Hertl. However, Covid, memory, and watching recordings of games in Europe may be throwing me off.

 

[smoneil]

The sharks aren’t really worth watching, but I will say if you don’t catch many Sharks games you’re missing out because of Hertl. Works incredibly hard, good defensively, equal threat to drive to the net with defenders draped all over him, deke a dman out of his jock, or wrist a shot top corner.

Meier is having a better season, but playing with Couture and Dahlen (and I’d bet more time with Karlsson) is a hell of a lot better than Barbanov and Eklund/Gregor/Balcers. I’d say Hertl is still clearly the better/more valuable player. If Hertl and Meier stay together I expect you’ll see their scoring to stay relatively consistent.

Barbanov is solid, plays hard, good playmaker, I’d move him for a mid 2nd because I’m not convinced he’s legitimately a complimentary top 6 forward (whereas I believe Dahlen will be/is). I’d also be happy to re-sign him, but his production may yield $2.5M+ Aav and I don’t think he’s worth it.

It's literally just a matter of being too busy during the hockey season to pay attention to any team but my own. I'll watch highlights from time to time (like tonight with Meier's 5-goal game), but there just isn't enough time to actively follow several teams. I miss my 20s, when there was time for such stuff, haha.

I have seen Hertl a bunch of times throughout his career. I think a lot of Ranger fans kind of keep tabs on him to see if he'll retire another goalie like he did Biron. Good player. This thread made it look like I hate him, when all I was trying to convey was that he would be behind Zib in addition to Panarin, Fox, and Shesterkin. He'd still be our 5th best player over guys like Strome, Kreider, Trouba, etc.

Has Barabanov ever played the right side? We need a middle six RW in a bad way, and I'd pay a 2nd for Barabanov if he could fill that role (we have two 2nds this summer anyway).

 

[Pavelski2112]

It's literally just a matter of being too busy during the hockey season to pay attention to any team but my own. I'll watch highlights from time to time (like tonight with Meier's 5-goal game), but there just isn't enough time to actively follow several teams. I miss my 20s, when there was time for such stuff, haha.

I have seen Hertl a bunch of times throughout his career. I think a lot of Ranger fans kind of keep tabs on him to see if he'll retire another goalie like he did Biron. Good player. This thread made it look like I hate him, when all I was trying to convey was that he would be behind Zib in addition to Panarin, Fox, and Shesterkin. He'd still be our 5th best player over guys like Strome, Kreider, Trouba, etc.

Has Barabanov ever played the right side? We need a middle six RW in a bad way, and I'd pay a 2nd for Barabanov if he could fill that role (we have two 2nds this summer anyway).

Barabanov has mostly been playing the right side.

 

[67 others]

A while yes, but without looking I’d estimate Meier has had a 60/40 split with Couture vs Hertl. However, Covid, memory, and watching recordings of games in Europe may be throwing me off.

that's fair. I can't remember exactly when they switched it up. May have been late november early december.

 

[Bizz]

Another 4 point game.

Gonna take 3 firsts and a blue chip prospect now.

 

[DKH]

Another 4 point game.

Gonna take 3 firsts and a blue chip prospect now.

Lol

Hertl has a 3 team trade List

he can pick Kings & Ducks basically making a 1 team list

they trade him it will be one firsr and a decent prospect oe two - if all
31 teams in it - it would be higher but SJ screwed trying to maximize with only the specific team he wants believed to be Boston to center his Czech buddy- Pastrnak got the guest room ready for him so they know something

that said Sharks should try and keep him

they probably consider offering the couturier deal and get it done