LeBrun: Rangers interested in Tomas Hertl

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Bingo….and on a team with inferior talent to boot
"His offensive totals are lower," is the only thing you mentioned. And that Hertl isn't the best defensive forward in the league. Which I agree with, but Zibanejad is terrible defensively. So "more points" is literally the only issue you've raised.
If he were "terrible defensively" he wouldn't be used on the PK to a far greater extent than Hertl and taking far far more faceoffs. unless you are looking at the small sample size of "Just this half a year". Zibanejad lead all NYR in TOI for the PK in 2018-2019 by hundreds of minutes, almost double the next closest forward. He also lead them in PK time in 2019-20 by a large margin over the next forward. 2020-21 he was 2nd among forwards and a top PKer on the NYR. This is actually the first year in a long while Zibby was on the 2nd PK instead of the top PK.

Hertl has been a 2nd PK option every year for the same timeframe, including this year. You have to go back 5 years to find Hertl on the top PK. His Faceoff % is better. No doubt. That's hardly the end all of defensive play. So yeah no he isn't the best defensive forward in the league. He isn't even remotely in the conversations as he has never gotten even a single selke throwaway vote

Offensively, the gap is larger. Significantly so. Zibanejad is as much a force on the PP as anyone and he was even before the arrival of Panarin and the emergence of Fox when New york's next best players were a 52 point Kreider and 42 point Kevin Hayes. Hertl's best year offensively was 74 points and 15 powerplay points, in a year Brent Burns was still elite and scored 83 points and 28 powerplay points. The team still had a lot of superstars. Pavelski scored 38 goals, Kane and Meier both scored 30, Couture scored 27 goals and 70 points. Karlsson scored 45 points in 53 games. You can't say Tomas didn't have a chance with great players having a good year. The Sharks spiraled downhill pretty quick once Pavelski was gone and every Sharks fan regretted the Karlsson signing over keeping Captain America.

And again, I am a sharks fan. I watch a large majority of their games. I love Hertl. But in this comparison, he doesn't fit into the same tier.
 

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Read further. I also said if he takes a 3 year deal it will be at 9m+
More money less term.


avatar bet. Loser wears the avatar of the winners choice for 3 months(I.e I can ask you to wear your least favorite teams logo, or Trump's face, or anything, and you can do the same). Name your guess on his asking price for a 3 year or 5 year deal. Whoever is closer wins. If he takes any term less than the 2 I named (say he accepts a 2 or 1 year deal, I autolose)

You game?

This is unclear but based on what you said:
  • Any deal of 1 or 2 years and I win
  • A 3 year deal less than $9m I win
  • A 4 year deal less than $8.5m I win
  • A 5 year deal less than $8m I win
If those are the terms, sign me up.
 

67 others

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This is unclear but based on what you said:
  • Any deal of 1 or 2 years and I win
  • A 3 year deal less than $9m I win
  • A 4 year deal less than $8.5m I win
  • A 5 year deal less than $8m I win
If those are the terms, sign me up.
Would be better if you argued what salary you THINK he will accept that is team friendly so we could find the in between for whoever is closer.

I mean if you are confident he will take a team friendly deal like you seemed to be
 

burstnbloom

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Read further. I also said if he takes a 3 year deal it will be at 9m+
More money less term.


avatar bet. Loser wears the avatar of the winners choice for 3 months(I.e I can ask you to wear your least favorite teams logo, or Trump's face, or anything, and you can do the same). Name your guess on his asking price for a 3 year or 5 year deal. Whoever is closer wins. If he takes any term less than the 2 I named (say he accepts a 2 or 1 year deal, I autolose)

You game?

Bergeron is going to sign a 1 year deal. This is what Chara did, this is what he will do. He didnt say he wasnt willing to sign anything coming into the year. He said he wanted to play out the year before he decides what he's doing. Does that sound like someone looking for a multi-year deal going forward? Given how negative 35+ contracts are to the team's cap situation, the Bruins wont want to sign that either. Your take here is not based on precedent, the players behavior or reality.
 

67 others

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Bergeron is going to sign a 1 year deal. This is what Chara did, this is what he will do. He didnt say he wasnt willing to sign anything coming into the year. He said he wanted to play out the year before he decides what he's doing. Does that sound like someone looking for a multi-year deal going forward? Given how negative 35+ contracts are to the team's cap situation, the Bruins wont want to sign that either. Your take here is not based on precedent, the players behavior or reality.
Take an avatar bet then. Just because Chara did it does not mean every player will do it. In fact, most players do NOT do that and will hedge resigning to see if the team is serious about keeping them and competing, or if they will ask for their no trade list before the deadline because they fear to lose a player for nothing.

3 year or more contract, and I win. A 2 or 1 year contract, you win. Care to bet?
 

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Would be better if you argued what salary you THINK he will accept that is team friendly so we could find the in between for whoever is closer.

I mean if you are confident he will take a team friendly deal like you seemed to be

I didn't say anything about his deal, you did. You said "he asks for 5 years at 8 million minimum with a NMC". Now you're hedging and backing down.

Take the bet or walk away with your tail between your legs.
 

jay from jersey

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check yourself:
"You don’t Just throw out the success they’ve had this season to build more."
The success they have had is based on the depth of assets they have now. Depleting same for foolish win now is counterproductive.
You argue they have enough picks/prospects they can go there.
While everything is a different case by case situation, I argue for the most part they do not.

Some of our assets are more irreplaceable than others. Shesty is the obvious proof of that. We go from top notch Vezina quality to solidly good at best.

The acid test here is if the Martians kidnapped Strome, we would fully have enough depth to win as Chytil and Barron would instantly get more minutes fortified last quarter or so of season + playoffs by adding Kravtsov.

#s do not lie. Keeping Strome when it IS IMPOSSIBLE to extend him is arrogant hubris. He is a crutch; a productive crutch who has an uneven game but can score, but still is a crutch nonetheless keeping us from getting down to a true core with more mins.

"You’re not going to get a very high return for him so there’s really no point. Just self rent to the end of the season and move on."
NO, I repudiate your advocated illogic of waste.
I could see OTT dealing the later of their 2 2022 2nds, TB's, and a min 2023 3rd that conditionally could morph into a 2023 2nd if Strome is either re-signed or at any time during 2021-2022 or 2022-2023 seasons is flipped for a 1st round pick, or what may be considered to be a 1st round pick.

You only want all or nothing. Only deal if there is "a very high return". NO. Sufficiently high is adequate.
This is the same error they made w/Buch. Insisted on having their cake and eating it too. Instead of dealing him when he was more valuable b'c he was cheap AND HAD TERM, we kept him up to the last. And as a result instead of a top 10 from EDM we got Blais -- who I like and would pay for -- and a delayed 2nd.

I am compelled to continuously remind how we got Schneider. We upgraded by adding to a later middle 1st. We were able to do that b'c we had surplus. Surplus here is not just a large number of picks; it is also having sufficiently high quality picks to be attractive to follow through on an upgrade.

If you don't use picks, you can always peddle them for upgrades or sell them for better future picks.
Hence there is no reason to waste them -- or not acquire them when it is time to move on from vets. I begrudge that after we suffered for the most part through 4 years of Brendan Smith he was not dealt for a 4th as we instead arrogantly and foolishly pursued a playoff spot when even a blind man could see that was not gonna happen.

Barring a tsunami of injuries, we will make the playoffs and go deep. This will happen w/w'o Strome/Geo. We are not adding a guy like Draisatil or MacKinnon or some other high level add that could shift the balance in our favor.
Play smart with what we have and build some more.
THEN we can consider dealing what will then be surplus futures from a position of strength, the temporary cap prob strangling us until Trouba can be moved notwithstanding.

"You’re throwing the entire business aspect of the nhl in hope of stockpiling more youth and more draft picks.
I agree they shouldn’t deplete the farm for 94 levels moves, but trading strome at this point means nothing."

Respectfully, wrong as detailed above.

"Ditto on Geo. Unless some teams comes out of no where with a crazy offer, they are keeping him in the fold for the playoffs. The cap doesn’t matter this season.
It’s seems he’s turned his play around. He actually plays better when given the brunt of the minutes. They’ll keep him as insurance for a shesty injury and cut ties in the offseason."
You make my pt while ignoring it.
We have solved Geo. He needs regular starter mins I agree.

But what you and others ignore is that there is only one set of regular starter mins. Those go to Shesty, not Geo. If you correctly give them to Shesty, Geo gets cold, and that is a prob as to performances. If you give them to Geo, I am not sure we are keeping our Vezina level guy from getting rusty.

The obvious and clear solution is to take best possible level return for Geo, not only give Shesty starter mins but generally manipulate that vs toughest competition, and leave the backup Kinkaid/Huska for second tier teams. I am aware Huska has a rough baptism vs Avs -- who also roughed up Shesty -- but the team also gave him zero support. That will not be allowed to happen again.

why would Ott trade anything of value for strome now when they could just sign him for free in the offseason instead of giving up anything of value? It’s not like adding him propels them into the playoff picture??
Geo is insurance in case of a shesty injury. Which has happened every season he’s played so far. They might want Geo around in case an injury happens in his first playoffs. They still hold his rights and can del him in the offseason..
What your implying happen is contingent on so many other things that teams would likely do or pay high prices for.
Dealing strome for a pick weakens the roster atm. No matter how you try to rationalize it.
Absolutely an awful shot to the room and their confidence and basically saying they arent good enough to win in the playoffs, so why bother???
It’s the wrong thinking and not realistic.
You’re also still ignoring the business aspect of the sport. More playoff games/wins generates millions for the franchise and its value.

say they finish top 3-5 in the league in points, do you think they want the strongest possible roster to compete for that goal? Or weaken it for another 2nd pick, maybe if for some reason OTT would even do that trade.

I see what your saying. You want to turn every outgoing asset into a positive. But the way things work on the business end doesn’t always let you do that.
 
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67 others

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I didn't say anything about his deal, you did. You said "he asks for 5 years at 8 million minimum with a NMC". Now you're hedging and backing down.

Take the bet or walk away with your tail between your legs.
I further stipulated if he takes a 3 year deal , it will be for a higher cap hit, while you bruins fans yelled "no, he will take a team friendly short deal for the same amount he makes now"

Show some balls and declare a number if you are convinced he will be a team friendly contract
 

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I further stipulated if he takes a 3 year deal , it will be for a higher cap hit, while you bruins fans yelled "no, he will take a team friendly short deal for the same amount he makes now"

Show some balls and declare a number if you are convinced he will be a team friendly contract

Show some balls and stand behind your words.
These were the numbers you said "at a minimum" and with an NMC. I'll give you your minimum and ignore the NMC stipulation. Man up.
  • Any deal of 1 or 2 years and I win
  • A 3 year deal less than $9m I win
  • A 4 year deal less than $8.5m I win
  • A 5 year deal less than $8m I win



 

67 others

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Show some balls and stand behind your words.
These were the numbers you said "at a minimum" and with an NMC. I'll give you your minimum and ignore the NMC stipulation. Man up.
  • Any deal of 1 or 2 years and I win
  • A 3 year deal less than $9m I win
  • A 4 year deal less than $8.5m I win
  • A 5 year deal less than $8m I win
Yes, and you declared those numbers laughable. Thus you have a ballpark in your head for what Bergeron will ask for his next contract. Put them on the table

these were my exact words.
Read further. I also said if he takes a 3 year deal it will be at 9m+
More money less term.


avatar bet. Loser wears the avatar of the winners choice for 3 months(I.e I can ask you to wear your least favorite teams logo, or Trump's face, or anything, and you can do the same). Name your guess on his asking price for a 3 year or 5 year deal. Whoever is closer wins. If he takes any term less than the 2 I named (say he accepts a 2 or 1 year deal, I autolose)

You game?

Those were my terms. You are trying to bypass putting your guess in and still taking a bet.

And I think you well know if you try to play the price is right here and say "3 years at 8.95m" then you are essentially agreeing with me
 

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Yes, and you declared those numbers laughable. Thus you have a ballpark in your head for what Bergeron will ask for his next contract. Put them on the table

these were my exact words.


Those were my terms. You are trying to bypass putting your guess in and still taking a bet.

And I think you well know if you try to play the price is right here and say "3 years at 8.95m" then you are essentially agreeing with me

I figured you'd back down. No surprise.
 

67 others

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I figured you'd back down. No surprise.
LOL

I just posted the exact words of my bet, in that post you just quoted, in big bold letters and you tried to duck them by changing the terms completely and avoid posting what you think he will ask. Big surprise you aren't confident enough Bergy will take a team friendly deal to actually agree to post your guess.

>nd
 

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LOL

I just posted the exact words of my bet, in that post you just quoted, in big bold letters and you tried to duck them by changing the terms completely and avoid posting what you think he will ask. Big surprise you aren't confident enough Bergy will take a team friendly deal to actually agree to post your guess.

>nd

I just asked on you to bet on what you said the 'minimum' was. I understand if you don't want to. Lots of guys like to run their mouths and don't have the balls to back it up. Not even for a joke of an avatar bet.
 

jonu

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67 others

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I just asked on you to bet on what you said the 'minimum' was. I understand if you don't want to. Lots of guys like to run their mouths and don't have the balls to back it up. Not even for a joke of an avatar bet.
And the bet was mine. The exact words were
"avatar bet. Loser wears the avatar of the winners choice for 3 months(I.e I can ask you to wear your least favorite teams logo, or Trump's face, or anything, and you can do the same). Name your guess on his asking price for a 3 year or 5 year deal. Whoever is closer wins. If he takes any term less than the 2 I named (say he accepts a 2 or 1 year deal, I autolose)

You game?"

You seem to be ignoring that part of the requirement I stipulated
 

Sota Popinski

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If he were "terrible defensively" he wouldn't be used on the PK to a far greater extent than Hertl and taking far far more faceoffs. unless you are looking at the small sample size of "Just this half a year". Zibanejad lead all NYR in TOI for the PK in 2018-2019 by hundreds of minutes, almost double the next closest forward. He also lead them in PK time in 2019-20 by a large margin over the next forward. 2020-21 he was 2nd among forwards and a top PKer on the NYR. This is actually the first year in a long while Zibby was on the 2nd PK instead of the top PK.

Hertl has been a 2nd PK option every year for the same timeframe, including this year. You have to go back 5 years to find Hertl on the top PK. His Faceoff % is better. No doubt. That's hardly the end all of defensive play. So yeah no he isn't the best defensive forward in the league. He isn't even remotely in the conversations as he has never gotten even a single selke throwaway vote

Offensively, the gap is larger. Significantly so. Zibanejad is as much a force on the PP as anyone and he was even before the arrival of Panarin and the emergence of Fox when New york's next best players were a 52 point Kreider and 42 point Kevin Hayes. Hertl's best year offensively was 74 points and 15 powerplay points, in a year Brent Burns was still elite and scored 83 points and 28 powerplay points. The team still had a lot of superstars. Pavelski scored 38 goals, Kane and Meier both scored 30, Couture scored 27 goals and 70 points. Karlsson scored 45 points in 53 games. You can't say Tomas didn't have a chance with great players having a good year. The Sharks spiraled downhill pretty quick once Pavelski was gone and every Sharks fan regretted the Karlsson signing over keeping Captain America.

And again, I am a sharks fan. I watch a large majority of their games. I love Hertl. But in this comparison, he doesn't fit into the same tier.
So your argument that Zibanejad is on Hertl's level defensively is that the Rangers coaching staff play him on the PK a lot? Ok. No need to discuss this further with you.
 

Mattb124

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Delusional. Same age. More than 110 points difference between the two for their careers. Hertl's best season (a clear statistical outlier) he only tied Zib's production. Every other year they've both been in the league, Zib out-performed Hertl, usually by a pretty wide margin. Those are facts. Your response offers nothing to counter those facts. It's the rhetorical equivalent of a teary-eyed "Nuh-uh."

Did you look at their stats for this season, which are most relevant? Very similar, and Hertl is putting up those number with less help.
 

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And the bet was mine. The exact words were
"avatar bet. Loser wears the avatar of the winners choice for 3 months(I.e I can ask you to wear your least favorite teams logo, or Trump's face, or anything, and you can do the same). Name your guess on his asking price for a 3 year or 5 year deal. Whoever is closer wins. If he takes any term less than the 2 I named (say he accepts a 2 or 1 year deal, I autolose)

You game?"

You seem to be ignoring that part of the requirement I stipulated

That was like 10 posts deep chief, after I called you out three times.

In any case, my bid is 'less than' what your "minimum" was. Take it, or take off. Next time, don't run your mouth.
 

Pavel Buchnevich

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Hertl is probably better defensively, better on face-offs, and has better possession numbers, but you can't just ignore points. Goals and assists are what tangibly wins you games. Zibanejad has a large advantage in actually producing offensively over Hertl. Those fancy charts also belittle the importance of PP points. Zibanejad is one of the elite PP players in the NHL. That matters. It doesn't get thrown out of the equation.

I don't think there's a huge gap between the two, but you can't just start ignoring the main categories most people use to decide who are the best centers in the league.
 

67 others

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So your argument that Zibanejad is on Hertl's level defensively is that the Rangers coaching staff play him on the PK a lot? Ok. No need to discuss this further with you.
Not the only argument. But its is a strong one. Coaches tend to put their better defensive forwards on the ice during the PK because it is the most defensive time in a game you can be on the ice.

Over the last 5 years,
Zibby in 306 games has 245 blocked shots, 2872 faceoff wins, 222 takeaways and 14 shorthanded points, -17.
Hertl in 293 games has 223 blocked shots, 2466 faceoff wins, 201 takeaways and 8 shorthanded points, -17.

I mean, if you have statistics that show Hertl is somehow light years ahead of Zibby over the past 5 years, by all means, share them. Most metrics show them close with Zibby facing a higher quality of competition for 3 of 5 years.

Offensively both played with great players for several of those years and on bad teams a few of those years, both were hurt a few times during those years.
But Zibby is ahead offensively by about 10 points a year. He also shoots a hell of a lot more.
Zibby 306 games, 136 goals, 145 assists, 281 points
Hertl 293 games, 112 goals, 118 assists, 230 points
 

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