OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: New season of plundering begins

[Factorial]

One more point on Tellez: based on the track record of Shelton and Cherington, I think it's fairly likely that Tellez won't last another month with the Pirates if his play doesn't improve. The closest comparable they have had to Tellez is Tsutsugo in 2022, who was making $4 million a year and was absolutely horrendous (.478 OPS) before finally being released after 50 games. Granted Tsutsugo ended up on the injured list so it took longer, but I can't imagine Tellez making it to July on this team if he doesn't majorly improve.

Play Joe everyday at 1st until a better option comes along.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Quoting myself for continuity/searching back later in the season. We've settled into a pretty predictable pattern overall: the offense is extremely bad, starting pitching often better than expected, and relief pitching is inconsistent at best.

Starting record: 11-8
Record over stretch: 2-5
Ending record: 13-13

The cushion that the hot start provided us is now definitively gone, as we're in a grind to stay above .500 and a solid few games out of the division race, though it's too early to truly worry about either of those.

Like I said above, I don't think we really learned too much over this recent stretch. Maybe we saw Jones solidify himself as a true blue frontliner for ROY, since he's showing no signs of slowing down and is actually emerging into one of the better pitchers in the league period at this point. I'd say that and Cruz slowly emerging out of this early season funk are the main bright spots.

Otherwise, it was a question of a disastrous Red Sox series that continued the terrible play from the Mets series, and then a back-and-forth affair with an NL Central rival. It would be easier to feel positive about the much needed split if we had done anything to scratch out a game in the Mets series or Red Sox series. After losing an extremely winnable game today, we're stuck with the same record as we had over the previous stretch against the Phillies and Mets.

Still, I suppose you could say that .500 is still not the worst situation in the world, but you'd have to have some reasons for optimism going forward. There are really none with Davis, maybe you have some with Cruz, and Skenes is an obvious one. Perhaps to a lesser extent Mlodzinski coming back for Ryan, but otherwise, not sure I can get myself there for Gonzales, though we might as well try it. Otherwise, there are reasons to be pessimistic: we beat up on some weak teams, and maybe it's been a bit of a mixed bag against better opponents like Philly, Milwaukee, and Baltimore.

Looking ahead: 3 vs. SFG, 3 vs. OAK (6 road); 3 vs. COL, 3 vs. LAA (6 home)
I'm breaking this one into a longer stretch and including both the road trip and home games, even if I am cutting off the final 3 games of the next home stand somewhat arbitrarily (it's the Cubs, then we get the Brewers and the Cubs again, so that division stretch made sense to earmark for the next chunk of games).

In any case, it's probably obvious why I am lumping these together: with the probably exception of SFG, these are all teams that are worse than us on paper, and all of them currently have worse records than us. It's an enormous opportunity to right the ship ahead of the crucial first stretch of games vs. a bunch of NL Central opponents which will be extremely decisive.

I think the tale will be told by the opening series against SFG. The Giants have an advantage in starting the series against Priester, even if they have Harrison going who has struggled more lately. It feels like if we can grind out a series win there, then we can have momentum for the weaker opponents and really get on a roll. It's hard to be confident that we can take more than 1, which wouldn't be the end of the world but isn't exactly something you want to see given that we suffered the two sweeps and then failed to convert the 3/4 against Milwaukee.

This stretch is one in which we need to be greedy. We match up very well with all three of the other teams, which is basically something that everyone can say. We can't afford to overlook any of them with how things have been going, and IMO we really need to sweep Oakland or Colorado, and win the other series. That puts a super aggressive, and super unwarrantedly optimistic, projection at 9-3. That would be redoing the early stretch of the season and really refreshing. I think it's too optimistic, but we pretty much need 8-4, which is already pretty optimistic.

Final note to this long summary/preview: I think there's a reasonably solid chance that Skenes is called up for the next home series. I haven't looked to see when Skenes is next slated, but it should be Tuesday 5/30 based on the 5 days off he's been getting. That could set him up for a debut on a Monday or Tuesday night against Trout, which seems like a nice enough MLB storyline as well as being up the Pirates alley for drumming attendance. In theory, he could pitch Monday, May 6th vs. LAA and then have a second game on Sunday against the Cubs which is the last one of the home stand.

Quoting for continuity's sake/later searching. Not much that needs to be said at this point, but I'll file a recap for duty's sake. Trawling back through the thread to find this post and seeing everyone's vented frustrations (myself included) is more than enough recap. Nonetheless...

Starting record: 13-13
Record over stretch: 4-8
Ending record: 17-21

Talk about missed opportunities. The offensive doldrums continue as we slide against 3 teams that should be worse than us by a reasonable amount and 1 team that should be about the same as us. If you want to split hairs, Oakland along with SF is equivalent to us in the division, whereas we still have an advantage over Colorado and LAA.

We've all said it a million times, so it is only worth repeating so much: the offense has to be better or the squandered pitching will start to bite us in the butt when it isn't perfect and the offense finally does show. In a way, we got a bitter taste of exactly that in the final game of this stretch, as we finally hit well enough to win but Perez was off and the bullpen couldn't be perfect behind him.

It happens -- from a glance, the only optimistic thing that can be said is that very few NL teams are separating themselves from the rest of the pack. It's only the obvious playoff teams like Atlanta, Philly, and LA. If anything, teams like the Nats and Giants being decent is good news because that in theory keeps the Brewers and Cubs from piling up wins. And within our division, this pattern is probably most intense, as everyone has been losing a lot, and the Reds and Cardinals are both mired in misery that is actually worse than our own, which is hard to conceive.

I guess I was close enough for the Skenes forecasting, and it's a small relief to see the Pirates not play dumb games with Super Two.

Looking ahead: 3 vs. CHC (3 home) + 3 vs. MIL, 4 vs. CHC (7 road)
The Skenes callup makes my random partitioning of games seem more natural, as we are clearly trying to turn the page on what has been a brutal stretch of games, going back well before the stretch of 12 games we just ended.

It's time to put up or shut up with some crucial division games, as to state the obvious: if we continue the extremely poor play and manage something like a 1-8 performance here, then we'll effectively be relegated to the basement of the division for the foreseeable future. Something like 4-5 would be enough to tread water and not really change the current situation where we are 4 or 5 games back in the division, and I think 4-6 might be the most optimism I can muster for this upcoming group of games (edit: originally missed that it's a 10-game stretch, with 4 on the road in the last series vs Chicago. That makes 4-6 a series W, series L, and split, which is probably as good as it gets, especially right now).

Win at home and don't get killed on the road. It's going to be easier said than done to even pull that off, as we face Assad and Steele for the first two games of the series. I haven't paid much attention to NL Central teams, but it seems like some of the other spots in the Cubs rotation are susceptible to some big offense, so maybe we can manage to take one of the first two games and then get a break with the pitching on a day where presumably Keller goes for us.

This is borderline too delusional to even bring up, but I think what most frustrates me right now is that even if we had some great luck and get more wins than anyone could ever anticipate in this stretch, the poor play has killed that from mattering too much. We should basically be neck and neck with both of these teams, and all it would have taken to do that is some mediocre baseball. Flip Oakland to a series win, don't blow yesterday's game, and then choose 2 more games to reverse from the previous 3-4 weeks and we'd be tied.

But the season moves forwards and not backwards. As bad as the offensive woes feel, we're not in a horrible quantitative position in terms of being relevant in the division. The next 3-4 weeks loom really large, though. Let's hope the Skenes promotion really manages to turn the tide on the momentum from the past several weeks.

 

[BusinessGoose]

Fingers crossed. This is a very important series for the division. It's likely MIL is gonna get all four wins off the Cards. We can't let them AND the Cubs sweep up a pile of wins.

Well, we can. It'll just really mire us far behind.

What kind of sicko scheduling is it that we pay CHC MIL CHC for 10 straight days? This could literally make or break the season if don't win at least half of them, and that seems impossible, like we could go 0-10 and give up on even a wild card.

 

[MrBrightside]

Behind the Skenes: Breaking Down the Game’s Best Pitching Prospect

This guy is better now than he was a year ago, when he was the first pick in the draft.

blogs.fangraphs.com

 

[The Great Mighty Poo]

"I have come here to chew bubble gum and kick ass, ......and I'm all out of bubble gum."

 

[BusinessGoose]

Delayed start

 

[ImporterExporter]

Zero chance Skenes pitches tomorrow so i think it'll be a Sunday doubleheader. Should get tonight's in.

 

[Goalie_Bob]

Any word on when it will start?

 

[Factorial]

Any word on when it will start?

Jones is making the walk from the bullpen to the bench now so should be soon.

 

[WickedWrister]

Gonzales!

 

[ImporterExporter]

Gonzo up about 3 weeks too late. Attacking early in the count. That's a f*** you to Haines. Love it.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Gonzales with 1 AB and already has 2 RBIs, nice.

It would be terrific if he pans out. He has the speed, power (specifically gap power) and defense that would be great at 2B, he just needs to get at least decent enough contact with the ball.

 

[Empoleon8771]

At least so far, Gonzales seems to be doing a much better job at making contact within the strike zone than he was last year. I don't believe he has a single swing and miss on a pitch in the zone so far today and just made a productive out to move Cruz to 3rd.

 

[WickedWrister]

Grandal you gotta be f***ing kidding me

Perfect relay and throw by Reynolds + Cruz. Grandal makes the tag just but the ball gets knocked out by the runners helmet. Jones gotta be pissed off right now

 

[ChaosAgent]

I can't defend Suwinski anymore. He needs to go to Indy and Bae up.
This is terrible.

To say nothing of Tellez' existence.

 

[BusinessGoose]

Pissing into the wind, again

 

[sovietsanta87]

Is this the game the babysitter and FO realizes Hunter Stratton sucks?

 

[Factorial]

Tellez hearing the boos tonight.

 

[MrBrightside]

The amount of dead weight on this roster is not significantly less than it was in 2020. After Jones and presumably Skenes and maybe Cruz, this roster gets thin really fast.

 

[NewAgeOutlaw]

They should tear it down again so they can amass picks and prospects, ruin those players, and then have to tear it down again by 2030.

It is really hard to believe this organization actually won for 3 seasons.

 

[ChaosAgent]

They should tear it down again so they can amass picks and prospects, ruin those players, and then have to tear it down again by 2030.

It is really hard to believe this organization actually won for 3 seasons.

They finished above .500 4x before they hired a guy who finished last place with Boston's budget 3 years in a row.

Cherington is as bad a GM as Nutting is an owner. They deserve each other.

 

[The Great Mighty Poo]

Tellez hearing the boos tonight.

"We dont do that here"?

 

[sovietsanta87]

They finished above .500 4x before they hired a guy who finished last place with Boston's budget 3 years in a row.

Cherington is as bad a GM as Nutting is an owner. They deserve each other.

Idk what Ben did to you personally but I hope one day you’re able to find peace lmao

I’ll start by saying that this rebuild, barring a weird situation where everything suddenly clicks, has been a bust and he is responsible. He hired the shitting coaching and development staff. He hired the scouts and data analytics nerds. It’s his philosophy that has failed this club. If he gets canned after this year, I won’t shed a tear.

With that said, he inherited a team that, while over .500 two years prior to his hiring, was going nowhere fast. The major league talent was slightly better than the current roster and they had absolutely nothing in the system. Tearing it down was the right move.

Also, the dude won a World Series with the Red Sox in 2013 after rebuilding a team that lost 93 games the year before. Bob Nutting has never remotely accomplished anything in any facet of his life that compares. BC got to where he is because of Theo Epstein and Larry Lucchino and my guess is he would head back to Theo in another role.

I get the sense when they interview Ben that he’s in over his head. This organization is stuck in the mud and instead of finding a way out his philosophy is to spin the tires faster. I think he’s also complacent which happens after 5-6 years of running the show.

As stated before though, this franchise isn’t unlucky. It’s just poorly run from the top down. And until the top changes, you’re going to be hard pressed to find any quality industry people willing to risk ruining their career by coming here.

 

[metalan2]

It was 2-2 in like the 6th. I check score and it's 7-2 in the 8th. Mind boggling.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Idk what Ben did to you personally but I hope one day you’re able to find peace lmao

I’ll start by saying that this rebuild, barring a weird situation where everything suddenly clicks, has been a bust and he is responsible. He hired the shitting coaching and development staff. He hired the scouts and data analytics nerds. It’s his philosophy that has failed this club. If he gets canned after this year, I won’t shed a tear.

With that said, he inherited a team that, while over .500 two years prior to his hiring, was going nowhere fast. The major league talent was slightly better than the current roster and they had absolutely nothing in the system. Tearing it down was the right move.

Also, the dude won a World Series with the Red Sox in 2013 after rebuilding a team that lost 93 games the year before. Bob Nutting has never remotely accomplished anything in any facet of his life that compares. BC got to where he is because of Theo Epstein and Larry Lucchino and my guess is he would head back to Theo in another role.

I get the sense when they interview Ben that he’s in over his head. This organization is stuck in the mud and instead of finding a way out his philosophy is to spin the tires faster. I think he’s also complacent which happens after 5-6 years of running the show.

As stated before though, this franchise isn’t unlucky. It’s just poorly run from the top down. And until the top changes, you’re going to be hard pressed to find any quality industry people willing to risk ruining their career by coming here.

BC lost way more than Littlefield or Huntington.

He is a specialist in losing.

But I guess Huntington's coaches were sucky to you so therefore the records don't matter lmao