Quoting myself here not for narcissistic reasons (hopefully), but just to go back to the last recap post and establish a little continuity. I don't think there's a ton that needs saying that others aren't already pointing out. Nonetheless...
Starting record: 9-3
Record over stretch: 2-5
One of the main sentiments I was seeing after the initial 12 games was that there was too much sloppiness with how the Pirates got to that record, and that worse times were coming. This was punctuated by Bednar pretty much singlehandedly costing us a win and a chance at 10-2.
Those worries turned out to be right, though I think the story of the 7-game road trip is a little bit simpler. The offense went ice cold. We can certainly point at fringe roster players needing to throw important innings, but the core issue is that the offense stopped doing much damage at all, especially when it had opportunities to. It's stating the obvious, but when you execute like that and can put up 5 or 6 runs, you give yourself some freedom to win games that you didn't play perfectly.
It might be an interesting exercise to look from the Phillies and Mets perspectives and tell a story about how they won imperfect games. I think in terms of opponents, we had some good and bad fortune. The Mets have been heating up and that partly cost us, whereas the Phillies have been and basically remain very cold offensively, which is what enabled us to scrap two games in that series despite being relatively uninspiring otherwise.
The biggest bright spot is Jones, as a kind of microcosm of the general starting pitching performance so far, which Fogel just pointed out recently. I think that's the biggest shame in this stretch of games. I said a few days ago that splitting the Phillies series was very crucial because it protected us from a disastrous road trip. Getting swept sucks, and we looked horrible a lot of times and especially to end the road trip, but 2-5 is more bad than disastrous to me, though of course disaster might be looming on this homestand.
That said, the shame is that the starting pitching has been such a solid foundation that we should have been able to hit that 4-3 record over the recent stretch. When you strip away the bad feeling of watching a team struggle, a 2-game swing is not really that huge, but the broader point is that the pitching probably won't be that consistently good.
Looking ahead 3 vs. BOS, 4 vs. MIL
Maybe 7 wasn't our lucky number for me to pick with the last stretch, but it again works out pretty neatly here, as we have a 7-game slate before going back on the road again for another 7-game slate.
The general tale that seems on deck is whether or not we have a prayer of turning the ship around offensively and not spoiling the good start before the calendar even gets to May and we get Skenes creeping even closer. It's hard to muster a lot of optimism for the homestand after that Mets series, but this is really the first of many big tests for the team, as to whether they can turn the page and regain some momentum.
The Red Sox are a similar story to us, really, as they aren't a team that was on a ton of radars and have had success fueled by starting pitching, with a pretty middling offense that strikes out a lot. We catch a huge break as Tyler O'Neill goes on the IL just before the series, but it's hard to see us doing a lot of damage against Boston's pitching. That said, it's a home series and we have Keller and Perez going, so we need to find a way.
Milwaukee will be tough and might set the tone as to whether we will be in an NL Central battle that is shaping up to involve basically everyone, or if we are witnessing a slide back down to a permanent lower position in the division. They are not a good matchup for us on paper, because their pitching has been plenty good and their offense has been better. For the entire homestand, my gut says that we are going to need somebody on offense to really step up and start taking over, as a sparkplug to get this team moving in the right direction. The only player who comes to mind as a possibility is Reynolds, because Cruz has just altered between crushing some balls and then being entirely overmatched. I think just about everyone would be happy with a 4-3 homestand -- and for me (and maybe some others), things have gotten bleak enough that 3-4 doesn't sound half bad, though 3-4 w where 3 of the losses are to Milwaukee would be tough to take. Let's see if we can nab the series vs. a Boston team that is solid, but definitely beatable, and then maybe we'll have some momentum for Milwaukee. Priester is coming up for the Friday start, which has "continue the vibes from Wednesday's Mets spiral" written all over it.
Quoting myself for continuity/searching back later in the season. We've settled into a pretty predictable pattern overall: the offense is extremely bad, starting pitching often better than expected, and relief pitching is inconsistent at best.
Starting record: 11-8
Record over stretch: 2-5
Ending record: 13-13
The cushion that the hot start provided us is now definitively gone, as we're in a grind to stay above .500 and a solid few games out of the division race, though it's too early to truly worry about either of those.
Like I said above, I don't think we really learned too much over this recent stretch. Maybe we saw Jones solidify himself as a true blue frontliner for ROY, since he's showing no signs of slowing down and is actually emerging into one of the better pitchers in the league period at this point. I'd say that and Cruz slowly emerging out of this early season funk are the main bright spots.
Otherwise, it was a question of a disastrous Red Sox series that continued the terrible play from the Mets series, and then a back-and-forth affair with an NL Central rival. It would be easier to feel positive about the much needed split if we had done anything to scratch out a game in the Mets series or Red Sox series. After losing an extremely winnable game today, we're stuck with the same record as we had over the previous stretch against the Phillies and Mets.
Still, I suppose you could say that .500 is still not the worst situation in the world, but you'd have to have some reasons for optimism going forward. There are really none with Davis, maybe you have some with Cruz, and Skenes is an obvious one. Perhaps to a lesser extent Mlodzinski coming back for Ryan, but otherwise, not sure I can get myself there for Gonzales, though we might as well try it. Otherwise, there are reasons to be pessimistic: we beat up on some weak teams, and maybe it's been a bit of a mixed bag against better opponents like Philly, Milwaukee, and Baltimore.
Looking ahead: 3 vs. SFG, 3 vs. OAK (6 road); 3 vs. COL, 3 vs. LAA (6 home)
I'm breaking this one into a longer stretch and including both the road trip and home games, even if I am cutting off the final 3 games of the next home stand somewhat arbitrarily (it's the Cubs, then we get the Brewers and the Cubs again, so that division stretch made sense to earmark for the next chunk of games).
In any case, it's probably obvious why I am lumping these together: with the probably exception of SFG, these are all teams that are worse than us on paper, and all of them currently have worse records than us. It's an enormous opportunity to right the ship ahead of the crucial first stretch of games vs. a bunch of NL Central opponents which will be extremely decisive.
I think the tale will be told by the opening series against SFG. The Giants have an advantage in starting the series against Priester, even if they have Harrison going who has struggled more lately. It feels like if we can grind out a series win there, then we can have momentum for the weaker opponents and really get on a roll. It's hard to be confident that we can take more than 1, which wouldn't be the end of the world but isn't exactly something you want to see given that we suffered the two sweeps and then failed to convert the 3/4 against Milwaukee.
This stretch is one in which we need to be greedy. We match up very well with all three of the other teams, which is basically something that everyone can say. We can't afford to overlook any of them with how things have been going, and IMO we really need to sweep Oakland or Colorado, and win the other series. That puts a super aggressive, and super unwarrantedly optimistic, projection at 9-3. That would be redoing the early stretch of the season and really refreshing. I think it's too optimistic, but we pretty much need 8-4, which is already pretty optimistic.
Final note to this long summary/preview: I think there's a reasonably solid chance that Skenes is called up for the next home series. I haven't looked to see when Skenes is next slated, but it should be Tuesday 5/30 based on the 5 days off he's been getting. That could set him up for a debut on a Monday or Tuesday night against Trout, which seems like a nice enough MLB storyline as well as being up the Pirates alley for drumming attendance. In theory, he could pitch Monday, May 6th vs. LAA and then have a second game on Sunday against the Cubs which is the last one of the home stand.
