OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: New season of plundering begins

[ChaosAgent]

When Bart comes back, Davis' next DFA feels inevitable.

My faith in the bat has been shaken to where the best outcome for everyone is for the Pirates to move him in a month. Bart is at least as interesting in a bounce-back sense, and Endy is returning next year. We should let Davis mash in Indy again to build his value. He exceeded expectations by quite a bit defensively this year. He didn't totally tank his value.

I'd still love Robert and Crochet, but I find myself thinking that Rooker and JP Sears from Oakland may be the better way forward. IF Oakland likes Davis, then a Davis, Chandler + 2 45 FV prospect kinda deal would be attractive. We still need another SP for this year since we gave away Brubaker to save Bob $2M.

 

[Empoleon8771]

When Bart comes back, Davis' next DFA feels inevitable.

My faith in the bat has been shaken to where the best outcome for everyone is for the Pirates to move him in a month. Bart is at least as interesting in a bounce-back sense, and Endy is returning next year. We should let Davis mash in Indy again to build his value. He exceeded expectations by quite a bit defensively this year. He didn't totally tank his value.

I'd still love Robert and Crochet, but I find myself thinking that Rooker and JP Sears from Oakland may be the better way forward. IF Oakland likes Davis, then a Davis, Chandler + 2 45 FV prospect kinda deal would be attractive. We still need another SP for this year since we gave away Brubaker to save Bob $2M.

Good god why would they do that?

I don't even think they need a SP to begin with, but if they need one, they need a 7th or 8th starter to stash in AAA. They don't need JP Sears, especially not at the cost of 4 top-10 prospects in their system.

They got Falter for Castro, they don't need to pay 4 45+ prospects or better to get a starter. Go offer Peguero for Cabrera or something like that just to get depth, where Cabrera can be a bullpen guy for you if you don't need him to start.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Good god why would they do that?

I don't even think they need a SP to begin with, but if they need one, they need a 7th or 8th starter to stash in AAA. They don't need JP Sears, especially not at the cost of 4 top-10 prospects in their system.

They got Falter for Castro, they don't need to pay 4 45+ prospects or better to get a starter. Go offer Peguero for Cabrera or something like that just to get depth, where Cabrera can be a bullpen guy for you if you don't need him to start.

Well it was mostly for Brent Rooker, who is better than any hitter we have. Sears would be a very nice second piece.

We just had a bullpen game and started Quinn Priester in the last 2 weeks. Falter is leaking and we don't have any significant injuries, Oviedo aside. We have virtually no depth at SP. Contreras flopped, Priester isn't good, Brubaker is gone for some reason, Lauer (RIP) and German both flopped.

Jones, Skenes and Keller are going to get injured a few times in the coming years. We can't tank every time it happens.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Well it was mostly for Brent Rooker, who is better than any hitter we have. Sears would be a very nice second piece.

We just had a bullpen game and started Quinn Priester in the last 2 weeks. Falter is leaking and we don't have any significant injuries, Oviedo aside. We have virtually no depth at SP. Contreras flopped, Priester isn't good, Brubaker is gone for some reason, Lauer (RIP) and German both flopped.

Jones, Skenes and Keller are going to get injured a few times in the coming years. We can't tank every time it happens.

You don't need to spend any notable assets to deal with SP depth like that, though. For next year, they're sitting with Skenes, Jones, Keller, Oviedo, Falter and Priester as starter options, and that's purely in terms of guys who have pitched in the MLB so far. I'm certainly not sold on Falter and I'm pretty confident Priester is just another "shitty low end starter" pitcher, but there's SP depth there. With their injuries right now, they just need a German type of guy to be their #8. He doesn't need to be anything amazing, he just needs to eat innings until one of the guys above him in the rotation is healthy.

Like I said, they should be going after a low-cost guy like Cabrera with the intent of him being a bullpen/emergency SP guy. Ortiz already kinda fills that role, but having another guy in that role would be good IMO. With guys like Ortiz and Cabrera, you can easily convert them into high leverage relievers if they stick in those roles. Keep them as long relivers/emergency starters in the short term, but if they click as a high leverage bullpen arm, move them into that role.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Gonzales' yo-yo from total bust to seemingly cemented 2B of the future is a bit of a cautionary tale for me in terms of rushing to move prospects who are still inexperienced.

For me, Davis is extremely frustrating, so I get the sentiment, but moving him at low value just seems too risky. Gonzales' problems seem to have been addressed by getting better bat speed. Davis' problems seem very clearly to be part mental and part mechanics and approach, not something under the hood like that. He's in a pretty similar spot as Spencer Torkelson, who I've seen some people suggest might make sense as a straight swap.

In any case, I really don't think the Pirates are going to make a big move, so I will leave it like that. Their biggest trade ever was imposed by Coonelly (IMO) and backfired (even if it ultimately wasn't as horrible as some think). We've seen Cherington be somewhat aggressive earlier in his tenure, but recently it's been all super conservative, buy low type moves with no long-term commitment.

There's just nothing about the recent months that makes me think we'll compete with the Phillies and Dodgers for Robert, etc. I'd like to be wrong, but even my pet target of Ward seems like it's shooting too high. Maybe we'll go for the equivalent of Marlon Byrd as a rental bat. I do like Rooker but he's basically the same player as Cutch in that he can only rarely play the field.

I see them as having a lot of excuses to fall back on, since a lot of people would look at a repeat of last year with a few more wins as a success. Skenes and Jones will need their innings managed, as the last thing anybody needs is a repeat of what happened with Oviedo. Gonzales, Davis, Triolo, and maybe even arguably Cruz are in their first full MLB season, with some more help on the way even if it isn't quite as high profile. Other than Cutch, who now seems like a good bet to keep playing next year anyways, there's not really a veteran player who is going anywhere. It all just screams "keep your head down and make a minor rental buy at the deadline if you are in the thick of it".

 

[Empoleon8771]

Davis for Torkelson is actually a super interesting idea that I'd be all for.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

It's definitely not the worst idea but it seems to me that Torkelson basically has the same kinds of problems that Davis does, so if we can't get Davis going, then we won't get Torkelson going either.

While I am down on Davis and really think that it was a huge mistake for him and Suwinski to be called back up so soon, my thoughts are basically that we'll get him going or he will end up breaking out in another org. What sucks is that the continuous strikeouts make the spotlight so intense for him. We're on a road trip where if he plays, he will face all bad pitchers in hitter friendly environments, with the exception of Gray tomorrow. But that's even if he plays... if he doesn't play tonight, then why play him tomorrow against the best pitcher we'll face on the trip?

It's just an endless set of questions like that which begin from the place of him being an auto-out until he shows otherwise. I sort of think you have to start him tonight, but I also think you want Grandal in there with Skenes.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Endy Rodriguez is going to waltz back into our starting lineup next year. He also can't be traded.

Davis already proved he can't play other positions with the RF disaster last year, and his implosion this year casts doubt about whether he's a worthy DH. Joey Bart is also a former high-pick catcher reclamation and he has just about as much potential.

What's the scenario in which Davis is an impact player here?
If Endy was trade-able it would be a different scenario.

 

[WheresRamziAbid]

Endy Rodriguez is going to waltz back into our starting lineup next year. He also can't be traded.

Davis already proved he can't play other positions with the RF disaster last year, and his implosion this year casts doubt about whether he's a worthy DH. Joey Bart is also a former high-pick catcher reclamation and he has just about as much potential.

What's the scenario in which Davis is an impact player here?
If Endy was trade-able it would be a different scenario.

The scenario that Davis is an impact player is simply that he starts hitting.

The bats has enough potential to carry him at any position. Unfortunately other than a small flash or two it hasn't shown up in the majors.

But, on the other side this failure is only over 350 PAs or so. His minor league numbers are outstanding and as was his performance in the spring.

Id say while frustrating its hardly time to call it.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I'd pump the brakes on any of this talk and just ask why the rush to ditch Davis when his value is low? It's not like other teams are not going to have the book on him being totally unable to hit velocity high in the zone.

The main scenario where another team comes asking for him in a trade is if they think he's a good buy low guy to fix his approach. That doesn't scream "trade ASAP" to me.

Maybe he's usable in a big package to land a premium player, but I sort of doubt it. If we're talking Robert, it'd be an easier sell as a discount second piece if we had a headliner who had increased stock in 2024.

The only thing that gives me slight pause in saying that is that we've seen reported rumors be sky high and then either deals don't happen or they are way less than what people assume. The exception is obviously Soto, but he's a freak 1/1 player who was acquired by the most aggressive GM in baseball by a huge margin.

If you were asking me for the order in which I'd want a bat, it would go Chisholm, Ward, and then Robert. Robert's inability to stay on the field just worries me a whole lot, though I would say that the White Sox are the kind of team that I think might go for Davis at the center of a package. I just wonder if Jazz maybe becomes the face of yet another full-on Marlins blow up, and in that case, IMO he is worth pursuing more aggressively than Robert even if Robert's ceiling is way higher.

I put Ward higher than Robert just because of anticipated cost. Davis isn't a fit there due to O'Hoppe, but Ward seems like the kind of bread and butter complementary player who could be acquired without totally breaking the prospect bank and really give you some stability. If you ask me, I try and hang on to Chandler because I think he has an elite fastball and the rest of his game will continue catching up. But maybe you can get Ward for Harrington, Solometo, and a low minors guy. That patches an immediate hole and still keeps a good chunk of the pitching depth along with hopefully hitters who can keep improving.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I don't see any sort of issues with Endy and Bart being their catcher duo for next year. Endy struggled offensively in the MLB last year, but his defensive metrics were great and that's the most important aspect with a catcher. He absolutely needs to hit better than the 67 OPS+ he had last year, but he doesn't need to be this masher to be effective.

I'm not sold on Bart being this great piece like he has been this year so far, but I don't think it's crazy to suggest that you can get a roughly league average bat (probably in the 90-100 OPS+ range) out of an Endy-Bart catcher duo. With their defense, that's probably 3-4 WAR from their catchers over a full season. That's absolutely solid value.

Over his 3 years as a starter with the Pirates, Stallings finished with basically a 90 OPS+ but had 5.5 bWAR in 225 games. That's a pace of basically 4 WAR per 182 games. I don't think Bart and Endy project to be as good defensively as Stallings (especially not Bart), but I don't think a 3-4 WAR estimate is all that unfair for that duo as a whole.

 

[WickedWrister]

 

[Empoleon8771]

I honestly do not understand why they DFA'd Contreras just to keep Nicolas. I understand DFAing Contreras with a healthy bullpen, because he doesn't have a spot on the team with a healthy bullpen, but not really when they did.

I think the only logic there is that Roansy was out of options while all of these other guys are option-able. But that's not even true with Fleming, who was DFA'd shortly after Contreras.

 

[metalan2]

I see the Pirates claimed some scrub named Goodrum. Exactly the type of player we claim.

 

[Scandale du Jour]

Skenes with less than 35 pitches through 3. Very efficient.

 

[wheelz87]

Offense brought the lumber tonight!

 

[Empoleon8771]

Hell of a job by Skenes to get out of that 1st and 3rd mess without giving up a run. I think his performance today is right on par with his no-hitter performance, possibly even better. The efficiency he's pitching with is notably better than it has been in his other games.

 

[WickedWrister]

Needs the bats to wake up please...

 

[Empoleon8771]

Triple for Reynolds! Get some run support for Skenes.

 

[GilbertSeinfeld]

This seems like the first time Skenes has not had any run support.

He's pitching even better without it.

 

[WickedWrister]

Wow. Tough f***ing break

 

[Empoleon8771]

God dammit I can't even be mad about that. That's what makes Arenado Arenado. Downright gem of a play.

 

[Coastal Kev]

Not sure that I can remember why, but I liked last year's lineup so much more than this season. In fact, they make me angry.

 

[WickedWrister]

Letting Skenes go back out there for the start of the 7th?

 

[Empoleon8771]

Not sure that I can remember why, but I liked last year's lineup so much more than this season. In fact, they make me angry.

Because you have expectations this year when you didn't last year.

Letting Skenes go back out there for the start of the 7th?

I like it. Dude is the ace of this team, let him go through the teeth of the Cardinals lineup to show it.