OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: Dull days of July

[Empoleon8771]

A bat that makes sense is Vlad Guerrero Jr. from the Jay's.

Worth the price to get, but these are the Nutting Bucs.

Since June 1st:

Guerrero: .306/.341/.595 slash line, .936 OPS
Tellez: .328/.364/.588 slash line, .952 OPS

 

[BusinessGoose]

We 100% should move MAT

As @Empoleon8771 we already have Vlad at home

@DJ Spinoza is obviously going to every teams reddit and manifesting Jazz to PIT so much that they might actually do it when it wasn't their idea

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Bowden was on the Fan earlier this afternoon but it seemed partly like a lot of pandering. "Primanti's sandwiches tastin better than they have since Cole", "yinz should be excited" etc.

He did confirm that the Yankees, Phillies, Mariners, and Pirates have all had talks about Chisholm, and painted the picture that the Mariners and Pirates are the main two, with him not being the best fit for the former two.

I think he probably does have real sources, which is obvious given how long he's been around, but his overall claims don't make sense to me. He said that he talked to Bendix who told him that he isn't looking for a specific position, just the best players he can get. But then they asked him why he mentioned Bell and whether it was about taking his money, and he said that was his understanding. He said he heard it specifically in conjunction with the Yankees.

That's just an obvious contradiction. If Bendix wants to get the best players he can, attaching Bell's salary to him in a trade is the easiest way to tank that. It's always possible he has a mandate from ownership to cut the cost, but it seems like a real stretch.

 

[Ugene Magic]

Since June 1st:

Guerrero: .306/.341/.595 slash line, .936 OPS
Tellez: .328/.364/.588 slash line, .952 OPS

So you would base something off a small sample size rather than strengthen the teams batting?

That's just lunacy.

He's in Reynold's territory without having to small sample size it.

 

[BusinessGoose]

So you would base something off a small sample size rather than strengthen the teams batting?

That's just lunacy.

He's in Reynold's territory without having to small sample size it.

But where do we use him in the lineup? Platoon with Tellez doesn't make sense as Tellez is hitting. We could try him at 3rd I guess since Hayes is ice cold/broken. Platoon at DH is silly.

 

[Empoleon8771]

So you would base something off a small sample size rather than strengthen the teams batting?

That's just lunacy.

He's in Reynold's territory without having to small sample size it.

No, I'd like this team to actually add based on their needs and they don't need a 1B. Especially for what Guerro would cost in assets.

Guerro is obviously way better than Tellez, but Tellez has been a monster for the last 2 months. Pushing him out of the lineup at this point is silly.

 

[Ugene Magic]

But where do we use him in the lineup? Platoon with Tellez doesn't make sense as Tellez is hitting. We could try him at 3rd I guess since Hayes is ice cold/broken. Platoon at DH is silly.

No, I'd like this team to actually add based on their needs and they don't need a 1B. Especially for what Guerro would cost in assets.

Guerro is obviously way better than Tellez, but Tellez has been a monster for the last 2 months. Pushing him out of the lineup at this point is silly.

Nothing say's they have to keep Tellez. It's called strengthening the position. There's no given takes that Rowdy will keep up the pace. He's a career .235 hitter and his current .249 is the best it's been in years. Guerrero is playing more and has a bigger impact on the games.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

It's a moot point because Toronto doesn't seem like they want to sell. All signs are pointing to them trying to run it back in 2025 while maybe entertaining calls on pitchers in the seller's market.

 

[MrBrightside]

No, I'd like this team to actually add based on their needs and they don't need a 1B. Especially for what Guerro would cost in assets.

Guerro is obviously way better than Tellez, but Tellez has been a monster for the last 2 months. Pushing him out of the lineup at this point is silly.

Now compare Guerrero to Cutch over the same period of time, as you could DH Tellez. They aren't going to get Vlad and it's an academic argument but cherry picking a small sample size that is misleading isn't the reason not to.

 

[Ugene Magic]

It's a moot point because Toronto doesn't seem like they want to sell. All signs are pointing to them trying to run it back in 2025 while maybe entertaining calls on pitchers in the seller's market.

It was hinted at as a possibility. More that nobody would want to pay the price.

All these other bats are just a waste. They don't make a bit of a difference to a run so why waste the assets?

 

[ChaosAgent]

I would take Guerrero if he could be acquired for very little. But I think our structural needs are much more in the OF, which is why Chisholm and Arozarena are more attractive targets.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

It was hinted at as a possibility. More that nobody would want to pay the price.

All these other bats are just a waste. They don't make a bit of a difference to a run so why waste the assets?

The consistent line I have seen for the past week is that they have no interest in moving either of Bichette or Guerrero.

The biggest need on this team is the outfield. We have Reynolds who is having a poor fielding season, and then we are getting almost nothing from the other two spots. Even if Vlad is a better talent than other players, upgrading at least one of those spots will be a big boost to this team.

 

[WickedWrister]

 

[BusinessGoose]

Probably should be Bae

 

[Empoleon8771]

Now compare Guerrero to Cutch over the same period of time, as you could DH Tellez. They aren't going to get Vlad and it's an academic argument but cherry picking a small sample size that is misleading isn't the reason not to.

And you still have 2 massive holes in the OF and you're pushing out a pretty serviceable DH in McCutchen.

It's obviously not "Guerro isn't better than Tellez or McCutchen", it's "they don't need the positions Guerro plays and he'd cost a fortune to acquire". It's upgrading positions that don't need to be upgraded, while you'd likely be paying a ton to do that while neglecting actual needs of the team. I don't see how that's controversial at all.

It's the same exact logic I use when I say that Rooker doesn't fit as a target. Yes, he's a terrific hitter, but why is this team paying that price for a DH when they have McCutchen for the role already and have massive holes elsewhere?

 

[ChaosAgent]

I wouldn't mind throwing an additional SP on top of Davis, but it has to be a lower minors type of guy. If they're offering someone like Ashcraft in the Chisholm deal, it's going to be like that deal above of Ashcraft, White and Delgado for Chisholm.

I flip-flop on Davis regularly at this point. I'm super low on him and am not confident he pans out, but his upside is far too high to just throw away for a marginal return. Trading him for Chisholm wouldn't be that, but I'd be pretty unhappy with any sort of notable additions on top of Davis for Chisholm.

I think Chisholm's upside is higher than Davis honestly. I also think that Davis is struggling with being a 1-1 in his original organization. There is no way he should have been even worse than Rowdy early this year without something going on paychologically. Then you see Joey Bart and it's clear he had too much pressure in SF and is enjoying lower expectations here.

The attractive thing about Davis for Chisholm is that there is a real fit for Davis in Miami whereas there isn't in many other organizations (including ours). He's kinda a bonus part we don't know what to do with. Trading him for Chisholm frankly frees up the other big assets (Ashcraft, Harrington etc.) to go get say Ryan Mountcastle or maybe Arozarena...

 

[Empoleon8771]

I have a revision to my "I wouldn't want to include Ashcraft on top of Davis" take: if you can get AJ Puk in the deal as well, I'd have no issues with doing Ashcraft and Davis for Chisholm and Puk. They may even want an additional prospect, which I'd be willing to entertain based on what level we're discussing.

Puk's having a poor year for his standards, with having a 4.30 ERA and losing a few MPH off of his fastball. But imagine their pitching staff in the next couple of years with Skenes, Keller and Jones at the top of the rotation and Mlodzinski, Holderman, Puk and Bednar in the bullpen. That looks nasty to me, even if Puk doesn't get back to the electric level he was at in the past.

At the same time, the Pirates also got Holderman for a rental Vogelbach, so maybe Puk wouldn't be as valuable as I'm guessing he would be. He was traded straight up for Bleday when Bleday was a struggling prospect, and his value is almost definitely worse now with him having a worse year and less control left.

Edit: looking into him more, his poor year comes from him failing miserably as a starter but he's been his normal dominant self in the bullpen. I figure he'd cost something worthwhile to acquire, so I think Ashcraft and Davis for Chisholm and Puk may not be enough from the Pirates.

 

[ChaosAgent]

And you still have 2 massive holes in the OF and you're pushing out a pretty serviceable DH in McCutchen.

It's obviously not "Guerro isn't better than Tellez or McCutchen", it's "they don't need the positions Guerro plays and he'd cost a fortune to acquire". It's upgrading positions that don't need to be upgraded, while you'd likely be paying a ton to do that while neglecting actual needs of the team. I don't see how that's controversial at all.

It's the same exact logic I use when I say that Rooker doesn't fit as a target. Yes, he's a terrific hitter, but why is this team paying that price for a DH when they have McCutchen for the role already and have massive holes elsewhere?

Rooker gives us a lot more term which is appealing though. I'm not fully convinced that Clutch should control his own destiny here as we move into contention. The reunion is cool but turning him into a "you can DH here as long as you like for $5m a year" kinda limits our flexibility.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I'd be fine sending both Davis and Ashcraft, though generally I don't like the idea of punting on Davis after so few ABs given how bare the hitting prospect cupboard is. But if you can make that swap, you solve a need and don't tap too much into your depth.

I don't quite get the angle for the Marlins, though. I suppose there's some more certainty about both guys as they are closer to MLB ready, but the Marlins look to be a total that is ripping everything up that it can. They will be in a race with the Rockies and A's to try and secure the highest lottery rights, and then they'll do the same thing again next year.

It makes more sense for them to be looking at guys who have high ceilings but are 2-3 more years away at least.

 

[BusinessGoose]

Rooker gives us a lot more term which is appealing though. I'm not fully convinced that Clutch should control his own destiny here as we move into contention. The reunion is cool but turning him into a "you can DH here as long as you like for $5m a year" kinda limits our flexibility.

I hope he really thinks about not trying to get another contract here though. He's cool, I'm glad he likes PIT, but he's going to become a ball and chain on our leg soon.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I'd be fine sending both Davis and Ashcraft, though generally I don't like the idea of punting on Davis after so few ABs given how bare the hitting prospect cupboard is. But if you can make that swap, you solve a need and don't tap too much into your depth.

I don't quite get the angle for the Marlins, though. I suppose there's some more certainty about both guys as they are closer to MLB ready, but the Marlins look to be a total that is ripping everything up that it can. They will be in a race with the Rockies and A's to try and secure the highest lottery rights, and then they'll do the same thing again next year.

It makes more sense for them to be looking at guys who have high ceilings but are 2-3 more years away at least.

The Marlins have been horrid this year, but I'm not totally sure they'll go for a full blown teardown with who they have at SP. They could nuke the rotation for sure, but their woes this year are massively due to all of the injuries they've had to their SP.

They went 84-78 last year and had a rotation of Alcantara, Luzardo, Garrett, Cabrera and Perez that combined for 129 starts. This year, that group has combined for 28 starts due to injuries, with Alcantara and Perez out for the entire year and Luzardo on the 60 day IL. It's entirely possible that you're right and they'd tear it down, but personally I'd write off this year as being a mess due to injuries and not completely tear it down yet. They still have all of those starters controlled for the next 2 years after all.

 

[ChaosAgent]

I'd be fine sending both Davis and Ashcraft, though generally I don't like the idea of punting on Davis after so few ABs given how bare the hitting prospect cupboard is. But if you can make that swap, you solve a need and don't tap too much into your depth.

I don't quite get the angle for the Marlins, though. I suppose there's some more certainty about both guys as they are closer to MLB ready, but the Marlins look to be a total that is ripping everything up that it can. They will be in a race with the Rockies and A's to try and secure the highest lottery rights, and then they'll do the same thing again next year.

It makes more sense for them to be looking at guys who have high ceilings but are 2-3 more years away at least.

Davis needs a no-stakes situation to figure out how to overcome his mental hurdles to hitting at the MLB level. Miami absolutely presents that as they have nothing in the cupboard at catcher.

I still don't think I understand what Davis' best case scenario here is. They need an impact bat badly and they have 0 faith at all that it is him. With Endy, Bart, and Cutch return next year, Davis' role becomes "misfit toy." That is unless he somehow trains himself to play RF which...yes he was thrust into it but it is still a total demerit against him that he failed at it. The guy has talent but he has botched every single opportunity he has been given here for 14 months now. If he is going to succeed it probably will only be with a change of scenery (and an easy path to starting catcher like Miami).

I also don't think the Marlins would mind Davis (assuming they think he is worth the gamble). You could flip him in 3 years if he lands...more valuable than 3 18 year olds.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

You guys might both be right, I'm not sure. On the Marlins, I just get the sense that part of why Bendix was brought in was to make them a sustainable winner. If they are trying to compete next year, then they should look at extending Jazz and an offseason where they can supplement the guys they do have with something else.

Their division is also really tough, with none of the other teams set to be on a downward trajectory for at least a few more seasons. With how their prospect group is congregated, I just expect them to start collective talent. Assuming Luzardo and Alcantara come back healthy, they will be able to trade them next year for even more young talent. That said, they could still prefer closer to MLB ready talent for a variety of reasons.

With Davis, I get the reservations, but I think there will be caution about trading the guy you took 1.1 because he hasn't had the smoothest path to the majors. I'm neutral on it, because I think Jazz gives you plenty of certainty at a position of need to make it worth it in the meantime, even if Davis turns things around eventually.

I expect a big part of it comes down to what else is on the table. The Mariners are arguably more desperate than us and also have a better group of prospects to trade from. They are in a dog fight and probably need to win the division to make the playoffs. It's too hard to speculate without know much more specifics, but if their sights are set on Jazz, it's possible that his value gets driven up.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1816646009084346859

 

[BusinessGoose]

That's one down