I had to go all the way back to the previous locked thread for this writeup. Almost slipped my mind to stay on track given all the hubbub with the draft and the layoff. I made a mistake here in not counting the 4th game of the Mets series.
Starting record: 40-43
Record over stretch: 8-5
Ending record: 48-48
We'll take an 8-5 stretch any day of the week, even if the path we took to get there was a bit frustrating. We dropped a winnable Cardinals series thanks to a poor Keller showing and blowing a Martin Perez masterclass. Then we split a winnable Mets series. But we battled tough on the road to a 5-1 finish with an improbable series victory vs the Brewers and handling business against a fully checked out White Sox team.
From a long view, there's no way to complain, but you can just feel the same issues rearing their head every little bit. Ultimately I think the truth is that we are still on a razor's edge and the season could really go in either direction, which is fitting for such a consistently mediocre team. A lot of people keep pointing at the solid record since Skenes has been promoted, and it's definitely the case that if we maintain that type of pace, we have a very good chance at a wild card berth.
My opinion is that the mediocrity and missed opportunities sort of cut both ways. Mediocrity has helped us stay within striking distance of a really exciting run, as those who might point to Arizona's sub-20% playoff odds last August can point out. We can talk ourselves blue in the face about any frustrating thing that we want to nitpick, but the fundamental reality is that if you are close enough to the playoffs at this time of the year (and especially in 3-4 more weeks), you are in the hunt no matter what. I also think that the feeling of missed opportunity lies equally as much with how many other truly mediocre teams are kicking around, which is something that helps maintain the crazy parity for most every team.
Right now, the White Sox, Marlins, and maybe the Rockies, A's, and Angels are the bottom barrel teams, but the latter three can all grind out wins occasionally. I think it's mainly the Phillies who are the major threat this year, though they scuffled slightly in the last 10 or so games before the break (but winning every single series is hardly sustainable).
Two more things: 1) we are about to truly enter into the gauntlet of the season. Phillies will be tough, then there are 6 games vs a Diamondbacks team in short order, along with Cardinals, Astros, Padresx2, Mariners, and maybe Dodgers with Mookie back. That's the next month, and surviving that with a .500 record still in tact will be tough. I think we'll look back at being swept by the A's and losing a series to the Angels with some real grimacing, as picking up even 3 wins from those 5 losses will feel huge in the coming weeks.
2) The time to take some kind of risk is now. Not only are we in a position to make some kind of run this year, but 2025 isn't guaranteed, even if logically it seems like the window will be more open for us then. The juggernaut teams all have some pretty major weaknesses besides maybe the Phillies. It's hard to feel total confidence that both Skenes and Jones would be capable of a postseason run (and Jones to have the form he showed early on), but the opportunity might be as good now as it will be for several years. And more to the point, even banking on a window that is more open in 2025 requires some investment now. There's no solution to the CF problem in the offseason. Our system is good enough to make a trade and keep producing arms.
Looking ahead: 3 vs. PHI, 3 vs. STL (6 home) + 3 vs. ARI, 3 vs. HOU (6 road)
As I said above, this is the start of a pretty serious month-long gauntlet, so it's put up or shut up time. The Phillies series does not look amazing on paper but as IE said, scratching 2 out of 3, even in ugly fashion, would be enormous in terms of giving us some momentum out of the gate. Assuming Keller isn't hurt or something, having Skenes and Keller vs. St. Louis makes that a "must win" series.
I think we need 7-5 in this stretch. That's enough to plant a flag and really put the management group under a microscope for how they will complement this team at the deadline, which actually falls on game 2 of the Astros series.
6-6 would be plenty survivable, as I don't think the series that follows is quite as tough, though the Padres can be a buzzsaw if they are firing on all cylinders. 5-7 is still maybe enough to hold serve, but it would feel like immediately surrendering that .500 plateau we couldn't get to for so long.
So much feels like it hinges on this Phillies series, because if you open up with a series win, then you have Skenes or Keller going on Monday in all likelihood. I'll close with this: Perez has basically been a tale of two pitchers this season. He either gives you a quality start and stifles the other team to a run or two, or he gets blown up and gives 4-5 before the 5th inning is over and he's out of the game. If he turns in the latter performance tonight against the Phillies, it's probably more like 7-8 and an enormous blow. We do have an off day Thursday before the road trip, but there's still some pressure on him to get into or through the 6th inning to keep the bullpen in good shape for this big stretch.
Outside of basically one start (besides the first one of the year), Nola is pretty much a quality start machine on an average day and pitching into the 7th or 8th on a good day. That means there's almost no margin for error in terms of trying to win a 2-1 or 3-2 type of game. I'll go out on a stupid limb here and make a ridiculous (and ridiculously early) wager: we somehow find a way to turn this improbably matchup into a win, then we make the playoffs. We don't, and it will remain the season of what ifs, as we flounder to something in the mid-to-late 70s win total.
Unsurprisingly had to go back quite a ways for this one. I've mostly said my piece with a couple of long posts last night, so I'll try to keep this recap as brief as possible and then enjoy the off day while we wait for a massive series this weekend.
Starting record: 48-48
Record over stretch: 7-5
Ending record: 55-53
I'm pretty content with my preview from last time. I thought we needed 7-5 and we managed to get 7-5. We ended on a sour note after wasting an opportunity for 8-4 and a sweep of the Astros to propel momentum into the new "most important games of the year", but I don't think we need to let that drag us down too much.
Getting out of Houston with a series win while having Falter's first start back and a YOLO spot start as the rotation gets resettled is pretty great. And perhaps even better, Falter showed signs that he might be reliable down the stretch. This is getting ahead of myself, but if you can depend more and more on him and Ortiz, that's a pretty big x-factor to the equation, which is effectively that we need to win all the games that Skenes and Keller start. Both of them being dependable could alleviate some of the pressure when we inevitably don't win one of Skenes/Keller's games, and provide the possibility for a nice little run. It lets Marco be a hopeful innings eater as much as possible, and maybe we can get creative by pushing Burrows or Ashcraft up for a two-headed monster type start once or twice.
The last thing I'll say by way of recap is that I think it's not an overstatement to say that pulling out/being gifted the win on Sunday in Arizona and then doing the same on Monday in Houston probably saved the season. If we had gotten swept and then lost Skenes' start for a 4-game skid, I don't know that we even do the small buying that we did. Maybe we still pick up BDLC but instead of adding IKF, we dump Perez's salary and trade Chapman for interesting prospects who don't debut until 2025 or beyond.
We've all said our piece and then some about the deadline, so I won't touch on that here. I feel somewhat vindicated in my various speculations about Kyle Stowers, specifically for Priester, though it looks like he was more of a throw-in for Miami. I will be curious to see how he performs. Part of me does wonder if we could have gotten a similar package for Falter, but Rogers has a much better track record. I think the deadline could be more exciting if we got aggressive and gave Yorke a callup in August, but neither him or Cook is on the 40-man so I do not expect it unless there's some more injuries or Gonzales is done for the year and goes on the 60-day IL.
Looking ahead: 3 vs. ARI, 3 vs. SDP (6 home) + 3 vs. LAD, 3 vs. SDP (6 road)
We have a very symmetrical upcoming schedule to the one we had last time, facing off against all playoff teams and starting with a short home stand before going out on the road for an equally short home stand.
I said a few times last night that I think anyone would gladly take a repeat performance of 7-5 in this upcoming stretch. The Padres are in great form since the break, so the games against them take on some extra importance. Unless I am not looking at things right, I believe neither Keller nor Skenes will face them at all with how the schedule works, which is certainly going to amplify Falter, Ortiz, and Gonzales, because the Padres look to have a firm grasp on one of the WC spots and their schedule is not too tough.
I don't want to get too much into playoff prognostication and guessing here, other than to say that we just need to keep winning for the time being. This is obvious to say, but I think a divisional push is both in the cards and maybe more feasible than leapfrogging several good teams. Milwaukee didn't do a ton at the deadline and have really been scuffling -- their fan base is worried. I am curious to see how the division looks in the next set of games, but we need to take care of our own business.
To wrap up, I think we again need 7-5 here. 6-6 or even 5-7 probably holds enough ground, but it makes everything harder. If we can get 7-5, I really think we'll be 3-4 games back in the division and at worst 1.5-2 back in the WC, but more likely in or tied with somebody.
Without getting too granular, I see these games as needing a win in the Dbacks series, a win in the Dodgers series, and a W-L in SDP. The x-factor is if we can pull off a sweep of the Dbacks given that we have home field advantage and a pretty decent pitching advantage in all the games. Tomorrow's game is massive: we hit Pfaadt very well in Arizona, but Perez basically singlehandedly took us out of the game. He's capable of bouncing back and shutting us down, so the rematch will be significant.
If we can pick up the win, we'll have the wind at our backs and I might revise what I said above to say 7-5 is the baseline, but 8-4 is really within reason if we pull off a sweep and carry the momentum with some consistency. I think the Dodgers are beatable and that they are not going to rush Mookie Betts back from a hand injury to face us (he's taking batting practice). The only wrinkle there is that the Padres are starting to put pressure on them in the division, so I'll say here that the added formula for us is that we want the Dodgers playing well: handle business and sweep the A's, then have a dog fight against Philly that they win just before us, giving them more like a 6-7 game cushion heading into our series if we are able to beat the Padres early next week.
Barring a skid, all the games are going to have intensity from here on out. I agree with most of the sentiment that the deadline was the bare minimum, but from now on, hope springs eternal. Here's to IKF returning tomorrow night and kicking off a stretch run in which he's hitting .340, while Bryan De La Cruz gets scorching hot playing meaningful games and being inserted into a prime RBI spot!
