I'm an Infovore, and a realist able to make those creative leaps when a bunch of pieces fit together suddenly, and you jump ahead of the average person in your understanding of a subject.
That worked for me in business and as a Leader. I understand people so much better then I once did - how they tick, and how they learn, and how they grow. I used to have to develop management teams for a living, so that they could run the business for me with the values that I needed. The way we ran things, my job was to help them grow as humans and people to reach their full potential, even if it meant them leaving my business at some point. So I have a certain perspective.
Ultimately I do enjoy talking with you guys. But I don't get into the depths and details of why I believe the things I believe here very often. Today I want to write something a little deeper than usual that explains how I see the World. So yinz can know I'm not just throwing shit at a wall. Or at least, not very often.
These days I don't have a lot of time to write long posts, I'd much rather be reading what a Keller thinks about what he's been doing in the off season, or watching his training vids on Twitter honestly. Because I'm that data compiler, one who studies half a dozen fields, and I want to be able to make an intuitive leap. And to do that I need a lot of information on a given subject. And I've done all that with Mitch Keller.
Mitch kinda blew me away in Spring Training with the variety and quality of the non-fastballs he's been working on. The dude can really manipulate a baseball. That's where his future lies, he can make the ball do things other people can't. Even if he doesn't figure out the fastball, that will get him where he needs to go to at least be effective.
That seam shifted wake sweeper is crazy stuff, can't wait to see how it influences the rest of his game once he's comfortable. I've seen him throw four different kinds of sliders this year, every one of them super impressive in a different way. And let's be honest - Keller is simply a brighter dude than most baseball players. He's got an edge in the brain department, if he can develop more confidence. At this point I believe the basic "stuff" is just too good to fail, as I'm I'm not viewing him as a fastball Pitcher.
Ultimately I think he ends up as a sort of junk baller - his fastball will play off his breaking balls. He's going to figure out that Slider, or replace it with something better. I also believe Mitch Keller will learn and throw a Splitter or a Cutter quite effectively at some point in his career. I rarely hear him mention any pirate coaches, I'm not really sure he trusts them. I get the impression much of his development recently is self-driven.
So that's what I think, what I expect of Mitch Keller. Then I saw him learn a Sinker in 3 weeks this month. That pitch is quite impressive, maybe even good enough to play the rest of his repertoire off. So I'm still seeing growth and high potential here. And when he does put it all together, I really don't know how good he can be, but I'm super curious because it could be quite amazing. But it's more likely he'll be a solid 3-4 someday soon IMO. Probably in the next 14 months, and possibly this year. And he will keep growing and improving, probably into his 30's. He can really manipulate the baseball, and the Bucs failed Mitch in his prime development years IMO.
Yes I know, I'm tripling down on Mitch frigging Keller.... And that's what I do. Development and learning requires patience. I had to learn that in the business world, because I was building sustainable companies that people could count on.
The final conclusion is he's going to develop into an effective pitcher. One with a couple of + pitches to throw his fastball off of. He's likely a legit 3 for us by mid-season next year, the ceiling will still be high IMO. Particularly if that Sinker is for real.
I assume the Pirates see the same thing as I do, that ability to manipulate pitches. And developing slowly in an environment that did not support that kind of creativity for the most part. Keller's mos def that player that becomes an ace in New York or LA under those great coaching environments IMO. You can't give up on a kid like this - he's a few years behind simply from the bad coaching under the previous regime.
Edit: I did the same thing on Kenny Pickett. For years I described to my Pitt community what his game and challenges were, and why I believed he was an NFL QB. Even after the 8 yard game in the ACC Championship Game, I predicted if Coach brought in a good OC that knew what he was doing in the passing game, Kenny would take care of the rest. I admit, I also predicted if the OC wasn't a quality QB Coach that Kenny would not make it to the NFL.
You see personalities come into play in these things quite a bit. They're not automatons - they're people. And people have personalities, characteristics, strengths and weaknesses that often lead to success or failure. And the quality of the people and the knowledge surrounding them matters. The learning environment matters.
Personally - I believe the Pirates have created a very very good learning environment across their Organization. Finally. So I'm Bullish on Mitch Keller, at a time when everyone else it seems are talking The Big Bad Bear with him.
The damage has been done as far as his buy-in with our coaches IMO, he's gonna do it his way now. So I'm thankful the new Pirates development paradigm encourages player ownership of their own development. Mitch doesn't trust us anymore, but he's actually in the right environment now. Well maybe not Marin, but you know what I mean.
P.S. you probably don't want to know my heavily researched opinions on where the whole world's going economically. So I'm not an eternal optimist, something I've come to assume you guys view me as. I just get people and how they learn. I'm patient. And I'm often but not always right.
. But mos def I'm not giving him the benefit of a doubt right now because of past performance, and the glaring physical fitness issue that seriously limits present and future upside.
