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OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: Congrats to the Houston Cheaters on their win

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I'm at work but going out on a limb and saying Shelton did nothing but stand on the dugout steps thus far? These umps continue to get worse. Bless the day when they're not calling strikes/balls.

Also really nice to see my man Mitchell on a nice tear since coming back. He was a guy I thought had the best chance to win a long term corner spot.
 
I think the sheer potential impact of Hayes going from an average offensive player with below average power to an above average offensive player with average or slightly better power is really enticing. It would take him from incredibly valuable to all star level / borderline MVP in a good year, but I don't want to get fully carried away (and I don't think anyone else is, just pointing out the obvious since we haven't seen it at all). I still think the raw abilities in terms of bat speed and strength are there for him to become a different offensive player, but I'm skeptical he'll fully revamp his approach. Regardless, it's nice to see some late signs.

Castro emerging as a true everyday player is also a nice end of season boost. He's flown under the radar in terms of having ups and downs and needing to go to AAA to refine his game, but the hard work is paying off. He's close to working his way into the conversation of core lineup players and is definitely someone who looms large for what kind of offense we'll have over the next 3-4 years at least.

I'm really excited to see Ortiz tonight.
 
Trout with homers in 7 consecutive games. He needs one tonight to tie record of 8 straight. A record held by 3 players, Dale Long, Don Mattingly and Griffey Jr..
 
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Ortiz is completely overpowering these hitters. Fairchild poked that double down the line but basically none of their swings have even come close to squaring up any of his pitches.

The fastball is phenomenal and the slider might be an even better pitch. Incredibly strong first impression.
 
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DJ Spinoza said:
Ortiz is completely overpowering these hitters. Fairchild poked that double down the line but basically none of their swings have even come close to squaring up any of his pitches.

The fastball is phenomenal and the slider might be an even better pitch. Incredibly strong first impression.
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Yes...now THIS guy is a developmental prospect. You can't teach 99-101. And he sustains it. He's kinda rotund so I think it'll be easier on his arm. I hope we keep him up here.
 
DJ Spinoza said:
I think the sheer potential impact of Hayes going from an average offensive player with below average power to an above average offensive player with average or slightly better power is really enticing. It would take him from incredibly valuable to all star level / borderline MVP in a good year, but I don't want to get fully carried away (and I don't think anyone else is, just pointing out the obvious since we haven't seen it at all). I still think the raw abilities in terms of bat speed and strength are there for him to become a different offensive player, but I'm skeptical he'll fully revamp his approach. Regardless, it's nice to see some late signs.

Castro emerging as a true everyday player is also a nice end of season boost. He's flown under the radar in terms of having ups and downs and needing to go to AAA to refine his game, but the hard work is paying off. He's close to working his way into the conversation of core lineup players and is definitely someone who looms large for what kind of offense we'll have over the next 3-4 years at least.

I'm really excited to see Ortiz tonight.
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Im not as bullish on castro. I see him more of a utility guy who bat will make a positive impact for streaks throughout the season.

Still though positive signs
 
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Loving Castro.

Cruz...I've warmed up on him overall but I don't see him ever really being viable against MLB lefties. Platoon player, but thankfully the good side of a platoon.
 
I think Cruz could 100% develop to hit major league lefties.

His improvement on breaking balls has been great and I like that he apparently has a private hitting coach because it shows me he is willing to do extra work to be great.

If he could even ops .750 against lefties his overall numbers could be mvp caliber when he reaches his prime.
 
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WheresRamziAbid said:
Im not as bullish on castro. I see him more of a utility guy who bat will make a positive impact for streaks throughout the season.

Still though positive signs
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Yeah, I am probably somewhere in between really bullish and where you are, notwithstanding another big HR today. I think we're at the point in terms of depth where he should be penciled in as the everyday 2B next year, though it's an open question if he'd sustain something like this level of performance all year. But plus defense, usable speed, and maybe something like 20 HR pop will play pretty well from that position if so.

Unless things change, I think your summary is probably what we will actually see from him but he'll play more because he's put himself a notch above the others. It's not that it would be impossible for Marcano, Bae, Castillo, or eventually Gonzales to displace him, but I think he's above those guys for now.

Not encouraging to see Cruz whiff a bunch today, but he should still be batting leadoff against LHP. The games do no matter except insofar as they function to get MLB playing time for players like him and Castro. Regardless of the strikeouts, the chase rate is trending down, and that's what will differentiate an uneven, but still extremely good season because of the position he plays (a 3 WAR season, which I think is a baseline) from something much more impactful (6+).
 
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I really wonder if they'll give him the same end of season series / debut that Cruz got last year. Unless I am misunderstanding, Altoona will be in the playoffs next week, but there should still be at least a series or two where he could be activated. With the rosters not being as big anymore, the only other possibilities I could see besides Ortiz coming back are Bae and Burrows, if he gets healthy.

I don't really like the cup of coffee type reward if it isn't at least also paired with a legitimate shot to earn a place in the following year, rather than automatic ST manipulation. Except in particular cases I am not even too convinced that a standing policy to manipulate service really ends up helping the team. I think there's no question that with rare exceptions, top prospects will continue to be manipulated so that they are controlled for a 7th year, but even in some of those cases, I think there's marginal upside. If a player is good enough to impact the MLB team right away, then you can let them and let them turn the page on the minors and go about doing the most important thing, which is being as good of an MLB player as possible. If they struggle, as most of them do, then you can always send them back to the minors and you'll end up gaining the extra time anyways.

That said, I think catchers and pitchers have different caveats. I think other position players just come down to whether or not they have accrued a fair bit of time and had success, but catchers have an entire other role with defense and game calling. Pitchers in a way are a lot simpler, because it comes down to stuff. For example, I think Priester is actually still in need of a longer runway next year where he's in AAA and continuing to refine. Ortiz should probably very quickly be in discussion for a 5th starter spot -- we have to see it in spring training, but I'd already go as far as to say that he should be someone who you look at as maybe in extended minor league ST next year to stop the clock / manager early innings somewhat, but then in late April/early May when you start needing a 5th starter, have him in the mix.

I've meandered way far from Endy, but I don't know how to play it with him. Davis maybe moving off catcher raises some related but distinct questions. I'm inclined to say that Endy should stick with Priester but I think the balance of his performance this year should strongly point towards the possibility of him getting a chance early. The biggest thing to figure out is where you plan to play both Davis and Endy in MLB. Is one your 1A catcher and the other the 1B catcher? Or is Davis more of a 1C catcher who is gonna DH a lot and play some RF or first base? As easy as it is to default somebody to first base, I think in their cases it might negate Endy's athleticism and Davis' arm, but maybe you are looking at Endy eventually being 1B to a veteran's 1A, with Davis being 1C who potentially gets to MLB even faster if he hits well in AAA and takes to RF well.
 
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DJ Spinoza said:


I really wonder if they'll give him the same end of season series / debut that Cruz got last year. Unless I am misunderstanding, Altoona will be in the playoffs next week, but there should still be at least a series or two where he could be activated. With the rosters not being as big anymore, the only other possibilities I could see besides Ortiz coming back are Bae and Burrows, if he gets healthy.
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I don't really know if it's worth it, given how much of a headache they created for themselves with Cruz and Contreras this year.

TBH I'd throw an 8 year, $50-60M contract at Endy in the offseason though. I wonder if BC is considering it.
At this point he's our top prospect, full-stop.
 
DJ Spinoza said:


I really wonder if they'll give him the same end of season series / debut that Cruz got last year. Unless I am misunderstanding, Altoona will be in the playoffs next week, but there should still be at least a series or two where he could be activated. With the rosters not being as big anymore, the only other possibilities I could see besides Ortiz coming back are Bae and Burrows, if he gets healthy.

I don't really like the cup of coffee type reward if it isn't at least also paired with a legitimate shot to earn a place in the following year, rather than automatic ST manipulation. Except in particular cases I am not even too convinced that a standing policy to manipulate service really ends up helping the team. I think there's no question that with rare exceptions, top prospects will continue to be manipulated so that they are controlled for a 7th year, but even in some of those cases, I think there's marginal upside. If a player is good enough to impact the MLB team right away, then you can let them and let them turn the page on the minors and go about doing the most important thing, which is being as good of an MLB player as possible. If they struggle, as most of them do, then you can always send them back to the minors and you'll end up gaining the extra time anyways.

That said, I think catchers and pitchers have different caveats. I think other position players just come down to whether or not they have accrued a fair bit of time and had success, but catchers have an entire other role with defense and game calling. Pitchers in a way are a lot simpler, because it comes down to stuff. For example, I think Priester is actually still in need of a longer runway next year where he's in AAA and continuing to refine. Ortiz should probably very quickly be in discussion for a 5th starter spot -- we have to see it in spring training, but I'd already go as far as to say that he should be someone who you look at as maybe in extended minor league ST next year to stop the clock / manager early innings somewhat, but then in late April/early May when you start needing a 5th starter, have him in the mix.

I've meandered way far from Endy, but I don't know how to play it with him. Davis maybe moving off catcher raises some related but distinct questions. I'm inclined to say that Endy should stick with Priester but I think the balance of his performance this year should strongly point towards the possibility of him getting a chance early. The biggest thing to figure out is where you plan to play both Davis and Endy in MLB. Is one your 1A catcher and the other the 1B catcher? Or is Davis more of a 1C catcher who is gonna DH a lot and play some RF or first base? As easy as it is to default somebody to first base, I think in their cases it might negate Endy's athleticism and Davis' arm, but maybe you are looking at Endy eventually being 1B to a veteran's 1A, with Davis being 1C who potentially gets to MLB even faster if he hits well in AAA and takes to RF well.
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If this is what you believe - you should probably stop wanting players to get rewarded end of season like Cruz. They're always going to do service time manipulation, that's what small market teams have to do to be successful.

So basically I'm implying you're never going to be happy in regards to this topic. Such are my thoughts.
 
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Gallatin said:
If this is what you believe - you should probably stop wanting players to get rewarded end of season like Cruz. They're always going to do service time manipulation, that's what small market teams have to do to be successful.

So basically I'm implying you're never going to be happy in regards to this topic. Such are my thoughts.
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I am not interested as much in whether I like or dislike service time manipulation.

Sorry, but by presenting blanket statements like "that's what small market teams have to do to be successful", you completely elide the distinction between gaining a 7th year and managing how many of those 7 years are pre-arb vs. arb. Maybe you don't mean to do this, but by not entering into the full argument, there's not much more I can say that I haven't said already in what you quote or earlier in the thread.

I'm skeptical that the pursuit of Super Two service time manipulation is either helpful for player development (most important) or ultimately worth it in the end (also extremely relevant). Most players do not end up having the kind of careers where the whole sweep of the years of control are all that relevant. The Pirates have not really ever kept someone through their arbitration years and into a qualifying offer year, and I doubt they ever will for obvious reasons. For some players, it ultimately ends up either not being that big of a deal because they are too mediocre to get big raises in arbitration or even bother to go through arbitration in the first place.

Players who do or could end up having the kind of career where you want the whole sweep of the 7 years+ are players where it's dicier to pursue the full press Super Two manipulation and where I'd say, especially a team with no entanglements on the books at all should be looking to completely obviate the whole question by signing an extension. Hayes would fit into this camp, as his floor is a 3+ WAR player and his contract did just that. I think even with Cruz's exact future TBD, he's the only other comparable situation where that's about the floor, though the value is tied strongly to the offensive upside along with position, the latter of which is not a slam dunk to hold true through to the end of some 8+ year deal.

But even in that case, the upside is more tantalizing than with Hayes (and likely costs more), and it should be priority #1a along with extending Reynolds as #1b this winter. Did the plain and obvious manipulation hurt the relationship with the player enough that a deal will be more strained? We can't know for sure, but I'd say it's probably a good guess, even if it ultimately comes down to a willingness to hit a certain number.

Now, where there's still an argument to do it for cynical reasons is if the primary plan is to keep him through 2026 or so and pay as little as possible, trading him just after his peak and putting talent back into the system. That might be the right thing to do, especially if you think he's basically going to follow the career arc of a guy like Baez instead of Tatis (or at least what people assume about Tatis). I'd say that the jury is still out on the whole situation, but if that's the end game, then yes, making service time manipulation your primary priority is the right decision.

I think it also becomes more strategically viable when you have a core team in place and need to make these balancing act decisions in a way that is more clear cut. And further, that you have a pretty good proven record of getting and developing talent through all the avenues. The jury is still very much out in that regard, but for the sake of argument, let's say that stuff works out pretty well, we extend Reynolds and start modestly investing in some supplementary free agents, and begin trending towards the WC race next year and ultimately are a playoff team with a good future in 2025, which I think it's fair to say everybody wants. In that situation, I'm still skeptical of the strategic upside of Super Two manipulation, but it at least becomes a little more viable than when you are doing it with absolutely no financial commitments or plausible shot at success.

This front office needs to get to that level first and then with the support of ownership, sustain a much higher yearly payroll. If not, then wasting opportunities to get players chances when there is reason to think they can contribute is just going to lead to a lot of kicking the can while Nutting cashes checks. If they are performing in ST, then there's no reason that guys like Ortiz, Burrows, Davis, and Rodriguez should be lingering in AAA until July. Priester is one player who I think is more of an exception for developmental reasons, as I would bet if things go well and he stays healthy, etc., then he would line up for a promotion post-Super Two next summer. Maybe with Ortiz, you also have him in AAA for at least two months trying to refine the third pitch even further. I don't think I'll convince anyone who is dogmatically committed to Super Two on principle, but teams that are good weigh developmental questions higher and figure out the payroll balance when it actually becomes a potential issue.
 
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Can't watch this.

Very disappointed in the bats facing a good but not great pitcher in Carrasco. Cruz, Castro and Suwinski in particular.

Cruz's habit of letting go of the bat is actually dangerous to fans.
 
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