OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: Congrats to the Houston Cheaters on their win

[DJ Spinoza]

I'm curious to track Suwinski's final few weeks. He's cut down on the Ks since coming back, but the power hasn't really come as much. If he can keep it going and trend a little upwards in the power department, that would be a nice end to his season.

Mitchell is absolutely on fire since his callup, though I'm not totally confident that it's too sustainable. He and Suwinski seem like pretty comparable players, with Mitchell maybe being more of an overall type threat when he's really going and Suwinski more of a pure power threat, as well as Suwinski playing a little bit better defense.

The OF situation is still not clear for next year beyond Reynolds, and I still really don't get why Swaggerty hasn't also been given a cup of coffee, since he excels in speed and defense more than anybody (including Reynolds - he'd be a better CF but I doubt we'd play him over him, at least not in the immediate future). The OF could definitely benefit from having either Haniger or Mancini tossed into the mix as a RH power bat, though I'm certainly not holding my breath. If Davis is going to get RF time over the winter in part in order to fast track his bat, then it's not hard to see that as a cheaper option to trying to sign a RH bat in free agency.

The highest priority this winter should unquestionably be Reynolds and Cruz, and probably in that order too. Beyond just being the best player at an important position, my thing with Reynolds is that if there's no will to actually keep him, then it was just completely stupid to keep him through clear and obvious tanking seasons while his value plateaus and decreases. In some sense, if we signed Cruz to a lengthy deal and then traded Reynolds, I might still be able to talk myself into it, but it's just bad asset management at the end of the day.

I do think there is an argument that you need to invest in Cruz in order not to just be spinning your wheels for the entirety of Hayes' contract, but I'm not going to hold my breath there either. What we've seen in terms of actions is that the front office will come in with low ball offers. I think Cruz could be willing to go for a lower offer in terms of what players often get, but his age might be a factor. My inclination is to say to start with the Franco contract as a potential baseline, but it might be harder to navigate the latter years of an 10+ year contract for both player and team.

Beyond that, there's plenty of time to talk about this over the winter, but I think catcher is still an obvious problem. We are basically assuming that Perez both re-signs and is as good as he showed in flashes, which are big assumptions, but I think necessary ones, because as I see it we don't even have a backup. Delay doesn't seem like a terrible organizational catcher but I don't think you want to go into spring training with him penciled as a backup. We could assume a lightning fast AAA stop for Davis where he's up after 3 weeks or so, but I think even in that case he'd be more of the third catcher/primary RF/DH bat-first guy (and I do think this is where he's trending, otherwise I don't get introducing RF for him at the tail end of the season). I doubt Sabol can really be a true factor, but at the very least I think we might as well work him into the mix after today when Indy's season ends. It's only been 10 games but he's absolutely crushed in AAA.

 

[ChaosAgent]

It's easy to say "the future is bright" when you just cherrypick 3 prospects doing well and call it a trend. Omitting the likes of Davis and Peguero heavily struggling.

Or list out every pitcher with an ERA below 4.5 at any level of an organization and say "see, we don't need external pitching!"

Omitting that High-A is currently a prospect wasteland, and that Low-A has the 3 bonus babies and not much else.

Like, hey, I wish I was still optimistic and I'm glad that some players like Cruz, Keller, Priester and Endy have arrows pointed upwards. But there are as many downward arrows in this organization unfortunately and a Baseball America doesn't need to know (nor care really) about the vibez in the complex in Bradenton to adjust our prospect ranking downward.

I don't see any pathway with this team barring extensive external finds, like we had with Burnett, Liriano and Martin. The future's not totally dead but it's looking dimmer than it did 6 months ago.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I think the pertinent question is still whether or not the development can translate success to MLB. The talent in the system is perfectly fine and I think focusing on exact rankings is a little bit of a mistake, because then it depends on what the rankings system in question values, and at the end of the day it's still a question of assets at that point, not MLB productive talent.

I have consistently leaned pretty pessimistic with the current front office, but I think with how things stack up, there's still a runway, and 2023 is more important than 2022 is. The main accomplishments this year were basically holding Cruz and Contreras back in order to save money via Super Two. Contreras was especially egregious, though I still think it's a worthwhile question to wonder what Cruz does if his debut is pulled back multiple months. Much like JRod, he took around 60 games to really settle into a good clip, and now the most we can hope is that he maintains the positive play for a couple more weeks.

But more to the point, we need some conversion of Suwinski, Mitchell, Marcano, Castillo, and maybe a handful of others into more than AAAA players. I think there's reason for optimism there and don't think the mixed bag 2022 for a lot of them says anything too definitive.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Cruz not only playing but leading off vs. Quintana. I like it: maximize his PAs the rest of the way, even if he'll get a break at some point (we face two LHP in Cincy, so I would imagine he sits for one of them).

 

[ChaosAgent]

I think the pertinent question is still whether or not the development can translate success to MLB. The talent in the system is perfectly fine and I think focusing on exact rankings is a little bit of a mistake, because then it depends on what the rankings system in question values, and at the end of the day it's still a question of assets at that point, not MLB productive talent.

I have consistently leaned pretty pessimistic with the current front office, but I think with how things stack up, there's still a runway, and 2023 is more important than 2022 is. The main accomplishments this year were basically holding Cruz and Contreras back in order to save money via Super Two. Contreras was especially egregious, though I still think it's a worthwhile question to wonder what Cruz does if his debut is pulled back multiple months. Much like JRod, he took around 60 games to really settle into a good clip, and now the most we can hope is that he maintains the positive play for a couple more weeks.

But more to the point, we need some conversion of Suwinski, Mitchell, Marcano, Castillo, and maybe a handful of others into more than AAAA players. I think there's reason for optimism there and don't think the mixed bag 2022 for a lot of them says anything too definitive.

For sure. The system is getting devalued because of the failures of the 40-50 rated prospects at the ML level. Progress among those players and a lot of external pitching additions of quality (not dumpster diving since BC is bad at it).

 

[ChaosAgent]

Cherington is awful at pitching talent evaluation. Oh well. Baby steps.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

 

[ImporterExporter]

Figured he'd get a late call up, not this early though. Good for him. He's got some serious gas.

Honestly, I think the biggest story of this year (positive) beyond Cruz is the Keller turnaround. Having him pitch like this over a full year is going to be huge. Roansy, Keller, Brukbaker is a solid 1/2/3, though ideally we sign an external veteran arm to push Brubaker down to 4 where he's better suited on a potential winner IMO.

Priester also deserves a late call up and we should expect, if he performs next spring, to see him around mid July. Same with Burrows, provided his shoulder is more fatigue than serious injury.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I think it's possible that he just gets one of the doubleheader games, but given how gassed the bullpen is, it's not like there won't be opportunities even if it's in a piggyback or long reliever role

Next year, I think Burrows will get the Roansy treatment, except not immediately promoted like Roansy was due to lack of depth. He's got the stuff to the extent that I think he could be the 5th starter pretty quickly, but he won't have the innings, so it's a hard call to know when he'll be called on.

I think re-signing Quintana is the obvious move. Whole pitching staff loves him, his stuff will keep playing up in PNC Park, and he gives you the LHP look you really need plus a baseline of 180 innings. I think there should be an expectation to go out an spend for a RH bat like Haniger or Mancini, but the wishlist of that, extending Reynolds and Cruz, and a modest FA pitcher like Quintana requires a level of optimism I am not capable of. But I think you can argue pretty firmly that even if Quintana regresses some, he'll be well worth paying for three years.

 

[ChaosAgent]

I think it's possible that he just gets one of the doubleheader games, but given how gassed the bullpen is, it's not like there won't be opportunities even if it's in a piggyback or long reliever role

Next year, I think Burrows will get the Roansy treatment, except not immediately promoted like Roansy was due to lack of depth. He's got the stuff to the extent that I think he could be the 5th starter pretty quickly, but he won't have the innings, so it's a hard call to know when he'll be called on.

I think re-signing Quintana is the obvious move. Whole pitching staff loves him, his stuff will keep playing up in PNC Park, and he gives you the LHP look you really need plus a baseline of 180 innings. I think there should be an expectation to go out an spend for a RH bat like Haniger or Mancini, but the wishlist of that, extending Reynolds and Cruz, and a modest FA pitcher like Quintana requires a level of optimism I am not capable of. But I think you can argue pretty firmly that even if Quintana regresses some, he'll be well worth paying for three years.

There needs to be external additions.

A righty bat (Haniger, Mancini as you said)
4 arms, 2 of which are capable of starting
Catching to tide over while we service-time manipulate Endy

Beyond that, extend or don't extend Reynolds/Cruz. We have them for a little while longer either way. Should cost ~$25-$30M on top of this year's payroll.

 

[ImporterExporter]

I think it's possible that he just gets one of the doubleheader games, but given how gassed the bullpen is, it's not like there won't be opportunities even if it's in a piggyback or long reliever role

Next year, I think Burrows will get the Roansy treatment, except not immediately promoted like Roansy was due to lack of depth. He's got the stuff to the extent that I think he could be the 5th starter pretty quickly, but he won't have the innings, so it's a hard call to know when he'll be called on.

I think re-signing Quintana is the obvious move. Whole pitching staff loves him, his stuff will keep playing up in PNC Park, and he gives you the LHP look you really need plus a baseline of 180 innings. I think there should be an expectation to go out an spend for a RH bat like Haniger or Mancini, but the wishlist of that, extending Reynolds and Cruz, and a modest FA pitcher like Quintana requires a level of optimism I am not capable of. But I think you can argue pretty firmly that even if Quintana regresses some, he'll be well worth paying for three years.

You don't have to sell me on Q coming back haha. That was my take the entire year. Trade him at the deadline for a plus return and then circle back in the winter. I think Nunez should be making fans at least slightly excited as a potential long term 1B, plus;

Once we move Oviedo into the pen where he belongs, we'll see plus returns there. I really think the bullpen has a shot to be STRONG next year, provided health.

Bednar
DLS
Holderman
Oviedo
De Jong
Crowe (he's honestly not been that great since a strong first 6-8 weeks)

Those are 6 locks, again, if healthy come April. You'll obviously need a 7th and that could come internally from a # of guys.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Game 139: Cardinals 4 Pirates 3

I was planning to write about Mitch Keller in my recap for Sunday’s game. I was going to talk about how great he looked all game against a solid Cardinals lineup, how he consistently got ahea…

buccoball.wordpress.com

Kind of a rebuttal to IE. This guy gets it.

As a whole, the bullpen’s 4.66 ERA is third-worst in all of baseball. An underrated aspect of Neal Huntington’s tenure was his ability to find relievers in dumpsters, pulling useful arms out of the scrap heap. The best two relievers Ben Cherington has acquired both came as the main returns in the Joe Musgrove trade (Bednar) and the Josh Bell trade (Crowe), and it both cases Cherington gave up a more valuable player. Being able to fill your bullpen with solid-to-great arms is a key competent of building a baseball roster in 2022, but Cherington has failed terribly in this area over his three years as GM. It does not bode well for the future of this franchise.

 

[NewAgeOutlaw]

Speaking of the bullpen, how the hell does a terrible bullpen on a last place team give themselves a nickname?

I mean, "dog pound" is fitting, but not in the way intended.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I think the bullpen situation is as much about usage as personnel. Besides the fact that for many relievers, it's pretty normal to range between mediocre/bad and good seasons (in the end, every single one of them is a failed starter), one of the biggest problems with Cherington's tanking teams is that the depth has been very bad. It seems like Underwood pitches every single day, and Crowe might have been more effective for a team that had a better rotation and deeper bullpen which didn't overuse him and others. Bednar likely got hurt for the same reason, etc.

All of that is to say that I do think in terms of personnel, there are reasons for optimism if you get good health and players stepping up. I keep thinking that the AAA and AA seasons are over, but they have one more week. Ortiz is a really interesting player, though I think they will look at him at SP and rightly so (I think Oviedo should just be made into an RP, but he too might as well get some more starts in September), and I hope we'll be able to see a brief taste of Thomas and Flowers.

 

[Scandale du Jour]

Booooooom! Reynolds!

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Bats out in full force tonight, though I really wish Cruz had played. As has borne out, Minor isn't very good and is extremely homer prone. He's a veteran and Lodolo is the LHP rookie, but I'd rather give Cruz the rest day vs. Lodolo. That said, as long as he isn't also just being benched vs. Lodolo, then a rest day is a rest day, so I'm not going to get too worked up over it.

 

[dogthateats]

Crowe is hard to watch lately

 

[ChaosAgent]

All this planning for next year's bullpen and we have a shot/bad Wil Crowe pitching the 9th.

Never change, Pollyannas.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

The other obvious issue with the bullpen is Shelton's dogmatic insistence that guys can go multiple innings despite ample evidence that they can't. Crowe was bad yesterday, then got the job done in the 8th tonight. Whatever you think about him in general or think about using him in this spot, he then is out there for a second inning and immediately the game is in jeopardy because he didn't get outs.

He barely gets India and is now still pitching despite being at 35 pitches. Banuelos or Ramirez might also be total dart throws but at least they might give you a chance.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Crowe is so bad ahead in the count, man. Just wastes pitches.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Raise it, lol.

I love the way Castillo hits lefties.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I'm actually shocked we won that. It's like someone (Crowe? Shelton?) wanted to chase the absurd 2 inning, 50 pitch type stuff that Bednar did earlier in the year and got hurt.

Banuelos has pitched a bunch lately and Ramirez genuinely might not know where the ball is going, but if you are going to warm the guys up anyways, at least put a fresher arm in for a one inning situation where you need 3 outs and have 2 runs to give up. I can't believe Crowe didn't either uncork a wild pitch or give up a HR.

I do genuinely thing that Cherington's abysmal ML roster handcuffs Shelton to a degree, but he makes these kind of insane decisions so often that it's really disappointing that he has runway next year. I wish at the very least we canned him and Haines and had Kelly become the manager with a new bench coach (Kendall?) and a new hitting coach.

 

[ChaosAgent]

I'm actually shocked we won that. It's like someone (Crowe? Shelton?) wanted to chase the absurd 2 inning, 50 pitch type stuff that Bednar did earlier in the year and got hurt.

Banuelos has pitched a bunch lately and Ramirez genuinely might not know where the ball is going, but if you are going to warm the guys up anyways, at least put a fresher arm in for a one inning situation where you need 3 outs and have 2 runs to give up. I can't believe Crowe didn't either uncork a wild pitch or give up a HR.

I do genuinely thing that Cherington's abysmal ML roster handcuffs Shelton to a degree, but he makes these kind of insane decisions so often that it's really disappointing that he has runway next year. I wish at the very least we canned him and Haines and had Kelly become the manager with a new bench coach (Kendall?) and a new hitting coach.

Freidel crushed that baseball but right at Suwinski. That's why we won, otherwise Wil was well on his way to blowing it.

Ortiz does genuinely have an electric fastball - I saw it in person not that this matters but it was pretty cool - so I'm hoping after his 1-2 start cameo he can work some IPs out of the bullpen.

Undoubtedly we need 4-5 arms next year. Quintana reunion, another starter and 2 bullpen guys. I think Holderman and YDLS can be decent compliments out of the pen, as can Ortiz.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Cruz should have 2 walks. Dog shit umpire has completely taken the bat out of his hands for a nobody pitcher who cannot hit his spots.

Edit: I will say that at the granular level, the process for Cruz is still great, and it's a nice sign that he took the walk after having the BS strike three called on him the first time. Cessa hasn't thrown him one pitch all game that he could do any damage with, and the result is that he had to throw a bunch of pitches to him and should have walked him twice if the umpire didn't suck.

But that's what you want out of an all around threat as the leadoff hitter, and I would also argue that even if Cessa had hit his spot and deserved the strikeout, you still take it. Needing to throw 13-15 pitches to one guy hurts the opposing pitcher and I don't think you want to be overly protective and lose the damage-dealing approach. Overall, Cruz's approach has continued to evolve into something much better and much more indicative of a big offensive impact talent.

 

[Gallatin]

Cruz should have 2 walks. Dog shit umpire has completely taken the bat out of his hands for a nobody pitcher who cannot hit his spots.

Edit: I will say that at the granular level, the process for Cruz is still great, and it's a nice sign that he took the walk after having the BS strike three called on him the first time. Cessa hasn't thrown him one pitch all game that he could do any damage with, and the result is that he had to throw a bunch of pitches to him and should have walked him twice if the umpire didn't suck.

But that's what you want out of an all around threat as the leadoff hitter, and I would also argue that even if Cessa had hit his spot and deserved the strikeout, you still take it. Needing to throw 13-15 pitches to one guy hurts the opposing pitcher and I don't think you want to be overly protective and lose the damage-dealing approach. Overall, Cruz's approach has continued to evolve into something much better and much more indicative of a big offensive impact talent.

He's making good plate decisions and not always getting rewarded. Can't wait for Robo Umps.