OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: Congrats to the Houston Cheaters on their win

[ImporterExporter]

I don't know how Cruz will turn out like the rest of us but I do know he is the most exciting Pirate I think I have ever seen in terms of raw talent.

Agreed. I'm not sure I've seen anyone capable of the EV's he produces on pitches that have little business being hit in the first place. I mean Vlad Guerrero was king of hitting bad pitches and he certainly had serious pop, but Cruz can more or less one hand a pitch 450 feet. And I'm not talking a dead red fastball.

His speed is not sudden but he's so long that once he is up to full speed he makes up for the lack of off the line explosion with his strides. It's very unique. But make no mistake, I'm not saying he isn't top of the charts fast. He is. It just doesn't look it as we're not used to seeing someone his size capable of moving like that.

I think the big question is how well does the hit tool develop and does that specific aspect pull any of his power away, in terms of consistency, or does he trend in the power direction where he might sacrifice 20 or 30 points for more loft. He does need to take walks to be a total threat. That will hopefully come with time and he's shown me some in game tweaks already that show he's not ignorant. Walks really help cover up a lower batting average (so long as you have power for hits) which might be Cruz's profile long term. Getting him covered up with a plus hitter will help as well I think.

At the very least he's a guy capable of putting a 500 foot shot out there in every AB. That in of itself is exciting to some degree. And I fully expect him to put a decent # of balls into the Allegheny and hit a 500 foot plus tank or 2.

I don't need to expand much on his D. I'm completely fine with what I've seen so far given the up and down year he's had in AAA. He's going to make errors. As long as he keeps them manageable he'll stick at SS for quite some time. Just be consistent.

I am glad Shelton gave him 4 straight starts at short. I hope he continues to get the bulk of games, as long as he's performing of course. Get Marcano back in and give him a string of games. Chavis really came through huge tonight. Tied it in the 8th after our BP collapsed. Makes an out at home and keeps it tied going into the B10th. Walk off single in that frame. If we could just find a lefty who can hit and play 1B, we'd have a great platoon there.

Please get Bae up. 2-4 tonight, been on base in like 35 straight games. For Mitchell. Get his hit tool and speed in the lineup. He can play on the IF, anywhere in the OF. He's .302/.848 this year, with 15 SB's and he's a career .298/.805 hitter. The kid can impact the game offensively. Splits are ridiculously good. Has 500+ at bats in the upper levels and is still just 22.

 

[DanielPlainview]

Unfortunately I think we see Mitchell go down for Gamel. Maybe if Castillo fails to put together solid form the next week or so Bae has a shot but again we may just see him sent down for Newman

 

[Empoleon8771]

Unfortunately I think we see Mitchell go down for Gamel. Maybe if Castillo fails to put together solid form the next week or so Bae has a shot but again we may just see him sent down for Newman

I don't think that is all that big of a negative tbh. Mitchell has been fine but I don't think it would hurt for him to get more development time in the minors. I feel like their OF when healthy should be Gamel, Reynolds and Suwinski, so I think it makes more sense for Mitchell to play regularly in AAA than for him to sit on the bench in the majors.

I think the only young guys they absolutely shouldn't send down are Suwinski and Cruz, and I'd debate putting Castillo in that group as well. I know Castillo's stats are underwhelming, but I really like him as a super utility IFer and I'm not sure I see much of a benefit for sending him down beyond getting that 7th year of control.

 

[Empoleon8771]

In case anyone was concerned:

I feel like this is about as legit as a source as you could hope for

 

[ChaosAgent]

I don't think that is all that big of a negative tbh. Mitchell has been fine but I don't think it would hurt for him to get more development time in the minors. I feel like their OF when healthy should be Gamel, Reynolds and Suwinski, so I think it makes more sense for Mitchell to play regularly in AAA than for him to sit on the bench in the majors.

I think the only young guys they absolutely shouldn't send down are Suwinski and Cruz, and I'd debate putting Castillo in that group as well. I know Castillo's stats are underwhelming, but I really like him as a super utility IFer and I'm not sure I see much of a benefit for sending him down beyond getting that 7th year of control.

Yeah, Gamel is the guy I'm most excited to get back. Aside from Marcano of course.

 

[Gallatin]

Here's a free one with some analysis of what we're interested in. Kinda reads like a conversation here actually.

I think this is the first time Tim's written about Mitch Keller since he started turning things around. There's an additional comment he made below the article which illustrates why the Sinker is a revelation for Mitch IMO.

"So far that sinker has really helped the control. He’s throwing that pitch in the zone more than any other pitch, about 60% of the time. It gets contact 95% of the time in the zone. The pitch has resulted in an overall .653 OPS against."

"That’s what you want to see from a two-seamer. A recovery pitch that you can throw in the zone comfortably, knowing they can’t do anything with it. That definitely helps limit the walks, for obvious reasons."

P2Daily: Positive Momentum For the Future of the Pirates Pitching Staff - Pirates Prospects

Mitch Keller has been on a roll lately. The right-hander has a 2.54 ERA in 28.1 innings over the last month. Those numbers coincide with Keller adding a new sinker to his arsenal, which has also brought a 52.5% ground ball rate in that span. There are some concerns that Keller could regress from...

piratesprospects.com

 

[Gallatin]

And this is some very interesting fan analysis I find quite intriguing. A great follow up to the stuff on Mitch Keller.

Seems like 3/4th of PP is free these days. Nothing like it on the Web for Bucs fans.

Pirates Discussion: Are Fastballs Still King? - Pirates Prospects

[The Producer] Starting today, the daily Pirates Discussion will be led by Jeff Reed -- not the former Steelers kicker, but long-time Pirates Prospects reader and commenter Bucs'N'Pucks. Anyone who checks out the comments on a regular basis knows the extra information that Jeff brings to this...

piratesprospects.com

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I'm fine with Gamel coming back and Mitchell going down. He got a solid taste of the majors, showed some things, and should have a path back this year. I think you can't just do something like DFA Gamel and the bench is probably a little too crowded. I think it's also a little bit better for guys like Gamel or VanMeter to have inconsistent playing time than a prospect.

I am skeptical that we'd get much of anything for Gamel in a trade, but I think there's still something to not totally jettisoning your veterans, and he was good enough for us that I imagine there is a contender where he fits on the bench. Just spitballing, but maybe the Guardians are a pretty good fit. OF depth has always been an issue, and in terms of their system, it's got some similarities to ours in terms of depth, so using some of that for a low cost trade might make sense.

Having Castillo go back to AAA for just a bit to gain a 7th year might also make sense, and I think performance-wise, it's harder to see a role for him when Marcano is healthy and Newman is back, especially assuming Newman and VanMeter are coming back together, not to mention Yoshi. Cynically, what you probably want with Castillo is actually to circumvent super two as well, because that then gives you three seasons after this one where he is pre-arb. I doubt that's achievable unless he goes down very soon and isn't back until September.

I think it's too convoluted to try and perfectly map out how they'll make moves. Priority #1 IMO should be keeping Cruz at shortstop every day, and the chips can fall in place after that.

I almost can't even believe I'm saying this, but Newman could still be a very useful player off the bench. I do think he'll be tradable, though again not for much, so I think the ideal outcome over the next month or so would be to move him and Gamel in minor trades, and see if VanMeter or Yoshi play themselves off the roster or not, to be replaced with Mitchell, Castillo, Martin, or especially Bae (who I agree, performance-wise should be up, but again I'm not sure where he gets playing time barring another injury or Marcano being sent back).

Newman might still be useful enough as a bench and platoon player to keep around, but the big worry would be that Shelton is tempted to play him over Cruz. I think what I'm hoping is that you use the veterans that you have to try and get some darts for the backend of the rotation or even mid-relief/general bullpen depth. If you trade Quintana, it has to be for someone that you are very confident can help you right now.

I lean against that because the depth is so poor that we will be seeing lots of Eickhoff and Wilson, which might be the case anyways. Better to just keep him as a way to signal to fans that the tear down part is really behind us, and if you can get him signed to a decent deal, then it's probably a safe bet that there's no way you have 5 starters better than him next year anyways.

The one player who it could make sense to thread the needle and sell is Crowe, if there's a team that really buys into his bullpen performance and would pay up due to the years of control. I sort of don't want to see us floating trades beyond Gamel and Newman, but the cliche exists about bullpen pitchers for a reason, and I would look to a team like the Phillies to see if they'd overpay.

 

[ImporterExporter]

If Cruz gets a breather (sure he will this series) I'd like it to be tonight. It's a lefty and he's coming off 4 straight starts. Sunday is the ultra tough matchup with McClanahan (vs Contreras which is awesome) and I think having your best players against their best P makes the most sense and quite frankly I want to see Cruz against the best out there. It's going to be good for this growth.

All in all, just hoping we don't get swept down in Tampa.

 

[ImporterExporter]

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Yeah, I can see that being the right call for Cruz. The only thing that gives me pause is that McClanahan has just been going off this season, and he can use so many different pitches at will. Especially if we go the route of Cruz lower in the order vs. lefties, it might just be two plate appearances of total dominance (while he also dominates the rest of the lineup), but it would be a good challenge.

One thing about the system is that I think Bae might be a good candidate to float in a bigger trade. He's really surging this year and it's possible that his value won't be higher. I don't know if I fully believe in the power, but setting that aside, he and Marcano seem like relatively similar profiles. If you could use him as the centerpiece to get a pitcher, I think it's worth exploring, even if I'd place the odds of something like that at less than 5%.

Montas is really pitching out of his mind this year, but I think he's such a great candidate to be an anchor and really successful in PNC Park. Bae also seems like the kind of player that Oakland would like, an immediate contributor with great bat to ball skills. That trade + an extension this winter would be the kind of big move that I think the team needs to make at some point in order to catapult forward. It either has to be something like that or a Musgrove FA signing, and I think Musgrove is going to really cash in this winter.

 

[Goalie_Bob]

If Kumar Rocker slides to 36, why should the Pirates not take him?

I say go for the gusto.

 

[Empoleon8771]

If Kumar Rocker slides to 36, why should the Pirates not take him?

I say go for the gusto.

They absolutely should but I'm skeptical Rocker slides lower than like 15th overall.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I like the idea of trying to force Rocker to #36. The lack of pitching towards the upper end of the draft makes it a wild card, and the true unknown is what Rocker's medicals are. As we approach 3 weeks until the draft, the consensus seems to be placing him in the back half of the first round.

I think most teams go by BPA / some kind of model-driven strategy (spreading out the $ as much as possible), but it's not out of the question that there's a team who wants pitching that would jump on him.

If he does end up in the 15th or later range, then the best hope would be that we go underslot at #4 with Collier and have a good chunk of money to force him to #36. There's a decent shot that our pool would allow us to do that, since the only teams with more money are the DBacks and Orioles (as well as the Mets, but can't see them picking him lol). Good chance the DBacks end up without as much flexibility, which would leave the Orioles.

More generally, I think the idea to target a pitcher at #36 makes a lot of sense. It's hard to know how the first round will fully shake out, but besides Rocker, there are several possible prep options, different kinds of college guys (whether huge upside and injured, some question marks, or the ECU pitcher who was suspended this year), and maybe even an outside shot at Lesko, who many thought had the best pure stuff in the draft.

A guy who I like a lot is Cooper Hjerpe, LHP with a funky delivery that will move fast. He does seem to have multi-inning relief possibility due to the delivery, but the numbers on the pitches grade well and I could see a guy like that being successful in PNC Park. Ultimately, I think Rocker probably doesn't get out of the first round, but if we take Collier, then we are likely in the position to be able to pay him more than most of the teams picking before us at #36 other than the Orioles. Never a good idea to target a specific player with the "spread $" strategy, but there's a lot of uncertainty at #4 and likely a number of good options to end up pushing to #36, so I am really liking the idea of Collier as we get closer to the draft.

 

[ImporterExporter]

I'm going out on a limb and say that given what I've been reading the past few weeks, Collier is going to be our pick. That kid is getting rave reviews, not only for his play, but baseball IQ (dad was a big leaguer). His performance this year against a lot older comp is pretty amazing. Great bloodlines, and has a really advanced approach/swing. You can tell he was coached well when he speaks. Obviously BC has really been a college heavy 1st round guy, but if there is a year to go after a HS bat, it's this one. Lee really seems like the only real college option and while I wouldn't be upset with the pick at all, he's not going to save you any money and I'm not sure his ceiling is better than a Collier or Johnson, at least offensively.

I would be over the moon if we somehow landed Collier and then were in on Rocker, telling he and Boras that we can and will offer you the biggest payday at 36, as DJ alluded to. Might take 2.5M over slot but unless the medicals are indeed shit, Rocker has very legitimate ace upside, and a floor of something along the lines of a Bednar, IMO.

 

[ImporterExporter]

I'm pretty much on the Collier (if we're in on Rocker) or Termarr Johnson (if we're going slot at 4) out of this draft.

These 10 players stood out at Draft Combine workout

SAN DIEGO -- The Friday on-field workout has become the centerpiece of the Draft Combine in the two years it has been staged. Fifty-two players, including a half-dozen potential first-round picks, participated this time around as MLB Network broadcast the action live for six and a half hours...

www.mlb.com

 

[ImporterExporter]

That didn't last long. Honestly, feel for Eickhoff. That was brutal and then you have to read about it.

 

[ImporterExporter]

Hot off the presses. No Hayes. Not surprised. Cruz starting again. Love it. They're treating him like a potential star and difference maker. Suwinski leading off, interesting.

 

[Gallatin]

If Kumar Rocker slides to 36, why should the Pirates not take him?

I say go for the gusto.

If the medicals are good, I wouldn't hate this. He's probably going to get reached for late in the first though.

I like the idea of trying to force Rocker to #36. The lack of pitching towards the upper end of the draft makes it a wild card, and the true unknown is what Rocker's medicals are. As we approach 3 weeks until the draft, the consensus seems to be placing him in the back half of the first round.

I think most teams go by BPA / some kind of model-driven strategy (spreading out the $ as much as possible), but it's not out of the question that there's a team who wants pitching that would jump on him.

If he does end up in the 15th or later range, then the best hope would be that we go underslot at #4 with Collier and have a good chunk of money to force him to #36. There's a decent shot that our pool would allow us to do that, since the only teams with more money are the DBacks and Orioles (as well as the Mets, but can't see them picking him lol). Good chance the DBacks end up without as much flexibility, which would leave the Orioles.

More generally, I think the idea to target a pitcher at #36 makes a lot of sense. It's hard to know how the first round will fully shake out, but besides Rocker, there are several possible prep options, different kinds of college guys (whether huge upside and injured, some question marks, or the ECU pitcher who was suspended this year), and maybe even an outside shot at Lesko, who many thought had the best pure stuff in the draft.

A guy who I like a lot is Cooper Hjerpe, LHP with a funky delivery that will move fast. He does seem to have multi-inning relief possibility due to the delivery, but the numbers on the pitches grade well and I could see a guy like that being successful in PNC Park. Ultimately, I think Rocker probably doesn't get out of the first round, but if we take Collier, then we are likely in the position to be able to pay him more than most of the teams picking before us at #36 other than the Orioles. Never a good idea to target a specific player with the "spread $" strategy, but there's a lot of uncertainty at #4 and likely a number of good options to end up pushing to #36, so I am really liking the idea of Collier as we get closer to the draft.

I don't really see the logic here. What bargaining power does Kumar Rocker have?

The answer? Zero. He's the guy you short to spend more on 44.

 

[Gallatin]

I'm pretty much on the Collier (if we're in on Rocker) or Termarr Johnson (if we're going slot at 4) out of this draft.

These 10 players stood out at Draft Combine workout

SAN DIEGO -- The Friday on-field workout has become the centerpiece of the Draft Combine in the two years it has been staged. Fifty-two players, including a half-dozen potential first-round picks, participated this time around as MLB Network broadcast the action live for six and a half hours...

www.mlb.com

Collier's been my guy for a month now. Johnson's right there with Green in my book. As is often the case we're in lockstep once again.

I'm curious though, as an Importer Exporter, what bargaining power do you think Kumar Rocker has that would get him an above slot deal at 36? I mean, other than the Agent, he looks like he doesn't have any bargaining power at all.

What are his options? I just don't see any that could get him above Slot. If anything, I believe you hard ball the negotiation and drive down his his slot, to spend more on 44.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I don't really see the logic here. What bargaining power does Kumar Rocker have?

The answer? Zero. He's the guy you short to spend more on 44.

I don't think it's as simple as whether Rocker has bargaining power. If he's good enough and the medicals are fine to the point that there's a team that wants him in the back half of the first round, which seems to be what Callis, McDaniel, et al. are thinking, then in order to get him (if they want him), the Pirates will have to be able to meet that number.

They would likely be able to do it if they wanted and were taking Collier, but IMO it's a bit of wishful thinking on any of our part who are interested in him. We never showed too much of an interest in him from what I could tell, and typically I think you'd expect to see us try and identify another Solometo type if we were going to try and take a shave at #4 and have money for later.

Rocker is such an anomaly though because we don't know what's in the medicals. I'm with IE in terms of being great with Collier or Johnson, and I think my slight preference is that there's a scenario where Green falls into our lap and we just swing for the fences with him. Last I saw, he started answering some of the questions about the swing and miss in his game, and I think he has the biggest star potential outside of Jones, who I just see as impossible to get to #4.

 

[Gallatin]

I don't think it's as simple as whether Rocker has bargaining power. If he's good enough and the medicals are fine to the point that there's a team that wants him in the back half of the first round, which seems to be what Callis, McDaniel, et al. are thinking, then in order to get him (if they want him), the Pirates will have to be able to meet that number.

They would likely be able to do it if they wanted and were taking Collier, but IMO it's a bit of wishful thinking on any of our part who are interested in him. We never showed too much of an interest in him from what I could tell, and typically I think you'd expect to see us try and identify another Solometo type if we were going to try and take a shave at #4 and have money for later.

Rocker is such an anomaly though because we don't know what's in the medicals. I'm with IE in terms of being great with Collier or Johnson, and I think my slight preference is that there's a scenario where Green falls into our lap and we just swing for the fences with him. Last I saw, he started answering some of the questions about the swing and miss in his game, and I think he has the biggest star potential outside of Jones, who I just see as impossible to get to #4.

I like a lot of the other points you make here.

But I don't know man... Rocker doesn't have college leverage to fall back on. And he's an older prospect now with a medical history.
So you're telling me a couple of draft gurus in the press that really know nothing are setting the price for drafted prospects?

I'm just not seeing it. The teams decide that stuff - usually based on wether said player has other options like going to college, or going back to college, or playing another sport.

I predict he doesn't get better than slot wherever he goes.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Callis and McDaniel are as sourced up as it gets, but I don't want to give the impression they have said anything yet. There's usually a clear difference between their educated guesses and when they have it sourced that teams are in on guys, and I haven't seen too much of the latter on Rocker yet.

Ultimately it will just come down to whether or not team X wants him and what kind of other talks his camp has had with other teams. I think it's probably easy to get laser focused on him and forget that there are a plethora of other new talents in this year's draft. If it makes sense to go after him given how things shake out, then I hope we do it. Has to be a balanced approach with quantity and quality -- for example, if we have the chance to nab Green or somehow Jones, then you just have to jump on that and worry about the second round picks later.

Similarly, if you are like Collier and want to spread the money out, then maybe there are two guys out of a group of five or six that you think you can get with the next two picks. Last year was somewhat unusual I think, but it's definitely possible to nab two additional borderline first round talents if things break out way and we take Collier.

 

[ImporterExporter]

I do think we could get Johnson for slot given his range seems to be from 1 down to the Cubs at 7. Mainly though, he's 4-7 from what I'm seeing.

Really, taking a HS player is such a gamble, but if there is one thing the top 4-5 guys have in common, is their hit tool is highly thought of, sans maybe Green, who seems to be more of a raw power type right now. The thing Green has over Johnson and Collier is speed and defensive ability at a premium position.

Maybe we'll hear some more concrete information in the days leading up to the draft but I'd be pretty confident in better we're going one of Lee, Collier, Johnson.

Jones is out. He's going 1st or 2nd I think. I'm positive 1 of Green or Holiday goes above us. The question is it those 3 in some order or does Lee (or a bigger college surprise like Parada) slip in there for surefire savings.

Either way, it seems like we're in a real good spot in terms of finding another potential impact bat (Davis/Gonzo the obvious guys we hope pan out).

I think you'll see a bat, then SP, SP with the next 2 picks inside 50.

 

[Gallatin]

Callis and McDaniel are as sourced up as it gets, but I don't want to give the impression they have said anything yet. There's usually a clear difference between their educated guesses and when they have it sourced that teams are in on guys, and I haven't seen too much of the latter on Rocker yet.

Ultimately it will just come down to whether or not team X wants him and what kind of other talks his camp has had with other teams. I think it's probably easy to get laser focused on him and forget that there are a plethora of other new talents in this year's draft. If it makes sense to go after him given how things shake out, then I hope we do it. Has to be a balanced approach with quantity and quality -- for example, if we have the chance to nab Green or somehow Jones, then you just have to jump on that and worry about the second round picks later.

Similarly, if you are like Collier and want to spread the money out, then maybe there are two guys out of a group of five or six that you think you can get with the next two picks. Last year was somewhat unusual I think, but it's definitely possible to nab two additional borderline first round talents if things break out way and we take Collier.

I'm to the point where I like Collier independent of the money now. Got no problem paying full price @ 4 if that's what it takes. His mental makeup is elite.

Still hopeful they can work a deal though and save some dough.