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OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: Congrats to the Houston Cheaters on their win

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MrBrightside said:
Eh, as a Hayes skeptic I think you have to keep him at the top of the order as getting on base is his greatest asset as a hitter. Moving his .365 SLG% into the 5 or 6 spot isn't really helping and really, for as limited as Hayes may be, he's still probably the 3rd best hitter in this lineup after Reynolds and Cruz, so you need him to get the plate appearances.
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His OBP really isn't that impressive either. He takes some walks but not enough where it makes up for a .270ish profile. And that .270 is pretty empty as far as producing anything more than a one bagger. Certainly not since late April. He's gotten progressively worse this year and June has been an abomination (.197/.572)

When Marcano is back, which should be any day now, he should be getting a lot of starts at 2B and hitting leadoff until he proves he can't do it. He gives you everything Hayes does at the plate, with the ability to actually pull a baseball for pop at times. Plus speed, like Hayes, and he's shown an ability to take a walk, like Hayes.

Basically Hayes needs to a reality check IMO and that's a trip to a lower spot in the lineup until he gets back to his April production. I don't believe in constant lineup shuffling, but once in a while, players need to be moved so that the lineup in an overall sense doesn't suffer. Hayes, for the past month and a half, has been plain bad and it's impacted the guys behind him for sure. Just my .02 of course.
 
I would just run with the energy from Cruz and bat him leadoff. He's an exciting and energizing talent, and in any case, batting him leadoff means a larger number of at-bats and more "learning opportunities". If he starts to struggle, you can re-adjust, but I find it hard to think he'd struggle any more at the top of the order than towards the bottom in a more conservative spot. It's not like there's any pressure on the team at all.

I'd like to see this tonight:

SS Cruz
3B Hayes
CF Reynolds
DH Vogey
LF Suwinski
1B Chavis
LF Madris/Mitchell
C Heineman
2B Castillo

Obviously you could slot in Park somewhere (and he's actually looked solid in this recent call-up, but I've still kind of written him off as depth. I don't think Vogey should be stapled to the lineup, since that spot is a way to get Mitchell more reps while keeping Madris in, but it's undeniable that Vogey is seeing the ball better in recent weeks.

Marcano will throw a slight wrench into things once he's back, but if he'll have missed a week or so of games and actually was symptomatic, he'll probably be eased back in. I think he should be ticketed as the everyday 2B sooner or later, but depending on the plan with Castillo / Mitchell / Madris, it's possible that he could move between a few spots. I don't think it would be terrible to ultimately slot him in the 9th spot to turn the order over, but in the end, it's also probably fruitless to want to see much consistency out of Shelton.

I do think he should just go with Cruz at leadoff, but there's also a world where batting him 4th-6th is still an ok way to make use of his tools. They might want to see how he handles the full time promotion in general for a couple of weeks before rewarding him by pushing him up in the order, and I don't hate that if so.
 
theathletic.com

MLB Mock Draft 2.0: Druw Jones goes No. 1 to Orioles in Keith Law's latest projection

A few players helped their draft position at the MLB Combine. Here is Keith Law's projection of the first round.
theathletic.com theathletic.com

Not a Law fan, but first I've seen a high placed writer putting Collier on us. His numbers are really impressive considering his age and the competition he was facing this year. Got a few impressive games in at the Cape, then shows off at the MLB draft combine. Already 6'2'' 210 lbs at 17 so not impossible he won't grow a bit more, left handed bat. Great bloodlines as his dad was a big leaguer and see below for an interview.

I think he'd provide intriguing potential while allowing us to save a bit of money for the 2 other picks we have inside the top 50.

www.mlb.com

Cam Collier at the Draft Combine | 06/17/2022

Cam Collier joins Harold Reynolds and Adam Jones to talk about his batting practice session, how he learned the game of baseball and more
www.mlb.com www.mlb.com
 
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Law's mock is out and he has us taking Collier, noting that the rumors are picking up with his good start in the Cape:



I think I would still like to see us go with Johnson for the hit tool. That's the kind of thing you can bet on to anchor a future lineup.

My vague sense is that there is a real shot Baltimore goes underslot and passes on Jones, which I think opens up interesting situations. I think that leads to Jones at #2, and there are lots of rumors about the Rangers loving Holliday, which would make Green, Johnson, and Collier all available at #4.

I like all of them and based on very little, prefer them in that order. I don't think you pass on Green's ceiling unless you are truly worried about the floor, and for me, both of the others are a little preferable to Holliday in an event where Green goes to Texas. I am really hard pressed to find excitement over Brooks Lee, with again the heavy caveat that I've done little more than read around. He just doesn't seem to have standout tools, and I'd rather bet on one of the prep guys further turning into a start with a slower development that has them landing in Pittsburgh somewhere in like 2026 with Chandler and others.
 
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Moderately interesting from a roster construction perspective. At some point, Newman will come off the 60-man IL, though we could swap him with Kranick or DFA Kranick. If we are going to have someone come up for Wednesday, we'd also need to make a move, unless that someone is Wilson or Yajure.

One guess is that this could mean we have move passed Fletcher, who is holding a spot down but doesn't seem to be standing out as anything more than emergency bullpen depth. Mears will need to be activated at some point, so long shot guess here is that we like Stout more as a depth LHP option and Fletcher will eventually be DFA'd when we need to make a move.

Ultimately, obviously, of very little significance. Bat Cruz leadoff.
 
I guessed right. Not really expecting much more than serviceable #5 starter out of him, but any innings are good innings at this point.

For all the optimism, we're probably going to see a decent amount of him, Wilson, and Yajure (whose stock has nosedived) in the remaining months. I really don't think trading Quintana is going to be worth it at all, as that might precipitate even more of a slide in the standings and some really ugly games (though that may be part of the plan). Maybe if Thompson comes back healthy and you at least have Keller, Brubaker, and Thompson to give you some stability, but that's already a pretty gigantic leap.

Contreras will need to have his innings managed and I can't imagine we will take any risks. Burrows will be in a similar position though I guess there is some chance we'll eventually see him get a cup of coffee, since he's obviously gonna get added to the 40 in the offseason, though if I were betting, I'd be more inclined to think we'll see him be in Indy next year until late April, to gain the extra year of control. That said, if he transitions well to Indy, I could see a similar situation to last year with Contreras where he gets a game in September.
 
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I honestly don't think Cruz will get on base enough to justify having him batting leadoff, and I think it's a waste of his power to have him batting there. He didn't walk a ton in the minors (Suwinski drew far more walks in the minors than Cruz did for comparison) and I can't imagine Cruz ends up being a good enough hitter for average to make up for those walk totals.

The lineup I think they should be running with when healthy is:

1. Marcano
2. Hayes
3. Reynolds
4. Cruz
5. Suwinski
6. Vogelbach (ideally a different DH but it will be him)
7. Chavis
8. Gamel/Mitchell
9. Heineman (ideally a different C but it will be him)
 
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ImporterExporter said:
theathletic.com

MLB Mock Draft 2.0: Druw Jones goes No. 1 to Orioles in Keith Law's latest projection

A few players helped their draft position at the MLB Combine. Here is Keith Law's projection of the first round.
theathletic.com theathletic.com

Not a Law fan, but first I've seen a high placed writer putting Collier on us. His numbers are really impressive considering his age and the competition he was facing this year. Got a few impressive games in at the Cape, then shows off at the MLB draft combine. Already 6'2'' 210 lbs at 17 so not impossible he won't grow a bit more, left handed bat. Great bloodlines as his dad was a big leaguer and see below for an interview.

I think he'd provide intriguing potential while allowing us to save a bit of money for the 2 other picks we have inside the top 50.

www.mlb.com

Cam Collier at the Draft Combine | 06/17/2022

Cam Collier joins Harold Reynolds and Adam Jones to talk about his batting practice session, how he learned the game of baseball and more
www.mlb.com www.mlb.com
Click to expand...
Edit: that's the 4th or 5th time I've seen this kid talk. I love the competition he plays against, he's way ahead of the other HS guys in that regard. And he already has a professional makeup, that probably comes from his dad. Lots of confidence, and lots of understanding of the process of being an MLB player.

Collier has been my top guy for about a month now. Nobody knows what his ceiling is. I like that.
 
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Empoleon8771 said:
I honestly don't think Cruz will get on base enough to justify having him batting leadoff, and I think it's a waste of his power to have him batting there. He didn't walk a ton in the minors (Suwinski drew far more walks in the minors than Cruz did for comparison) and I can't imagine Cruz ends up being a good enough hitter for average to make up for those walk totals.

The lineup I think they should be running with when healthy is:

1. Marcano
2. Hayes
3. Reynolds
4. Cruz
5. Suwinski
6. Vogelbach (ideally a different DH but it will be him)
7. Chavis
8. Gamel/Mitchell
9. Heineman (ideally a different C but it will be him)
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Finally someone sees it. 100% how I view the Line-up right now. Might switch out Vogy & Chavis, to reduce late inning vulnerabilities against Lefties. But I think that's really it.
 
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Gallatin said:
Finally someone sees it. 100% how I view the Line-up right now. Might switch out Vogy & Chavis, to reduce late inning vulnerabilities against Lefties. But I think that's really it.
Click to expand...

Yeah I didn't think about that, switching Chavis and Vogelbach is a very good idea. You don't want 3 lefties going in a row like that.

I also think that could open up an argument for bumping Hayes down to around the 5 spot too. Just have Reynolds, Cruz and Suwinski slide up 1 spot and move Hayes to the 5 spot and that also helps balance out the lefty/righty balance.
 
Empoleon8771 said:
Yeah I didn't think about that, switching Chavis and Vogelbach is a very good idea. You don't want 3 lefties going in a row like that.

I also think that could open up an argument for bumping Hayes down to around the 5 spot too. Just have Reynolds, Cruz and Suwinski slide up 1 spot and move Hayes to the 5 spot and that also helps balance out the lefty/righty balance.
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Not sure if we need to go that far. I want Hayes at the top or the bottom of the lineup until I see his slugging percentage above .400.

Cruz & Suwinski both hang in there pretty good against Lefties. They both have a tendency to hit home runs against them.
 
Interesting that this lineup is nearly identical to yesterday's lineup, I wasn't expecting to see Castillo on the bench again today.

Maybe they're giving him a break to have him reset.
 
No surprise that Shelton would just roll with the same lineup other than catcher, but I really think Chavis should be used sparingly against RHP. He works as a pinch hit option, so I think he may have a somewhat viable role to play long-term, but I don't love treating him like a regular. It's a real stretch, but I think it would be fine for Madris to be thrown into the fire and given more looks at 1B. Have to imagine Yoshi will get another crack at some point.

My guess for Newman, Yoshi, VanMeter, and Marcano is that we'll see Castillo, Chang, Mitchell, and Park all shuffled out. It might not be quite so linear because I think two 40-man spots need opened up (for Newman and Marcano), but it's hard to see the decisions shaking out otherwise. Marcano will be able to move between 2B and LF, and I just don't see any of those guys not getting some shot to reclaim roles on the team.

Getting ahead of myself, but the one thing I hope we don't see is some kind of time share with Newman and Cruz, even if Cruz is still in the lineup at DH a lot. He needs to play the majority of the remaining games at shortstop.
 
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DJ Spinoza said:
No surprise that Shelton would just roll with the same lineup other than catcher, but I really think Chavis should be used sparingly against RHP. He works as a pinch hit option, so I think he may have a somewhat viable role to play long-term, but I don't love treating him like a regular. It's a real stretch, but I think it would be fine for Madris to be thrown into the fire and given more looks at 1B. Have to imagine Yoshi will get another crack at some point.

My guess for Newman, Yoshi, VanMeter, and Marcano is that we'll see Castillo, Chang, Mitchell, and Park all shuffled out. It might not be quite so linear because I think two 40-man spots need opened up (for Newman and Marcano), but it's hard to see the decisions shaking out otherwise. Marcano will be able to move between 2B and LF, and I just don't see any of those guys not getting some shot to reclaim roles on the team.

Getting ahead of myself, but the one thing I hope we don't see is some kind of time share with Newman and Cruz, even if Cruz is still in the lineup at DH a lot. He needs to play the majority of the remaining games at shortstop.
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Newman should be nothing more than a late inning defensive replacement if we're up in certain situations. I'm talking like 8th/9th inning, especially if Cruz isn't due up. Obviously Cruz needs a breather now and then and I wouldn't mind seeing him DH occasionally, just to soften the grind of a long rookie campaign.

There are very few guys on the IL right now that I even want back on the active roster. Nobody really has any long term value on this team and it will only take reps away from the Mitchell's and Castillo's/etc.
 
Yes, I am in full agreement but I think it's a foregone conclusion. Yoshi is a question of whether or not they'll want to just eat the rest of his salary, and I don't think they will + Chavis isn't a regular anyways. There's no chance we'd DFA Newman or something along those lines, and I think VanMeter bought himself some more rope with the power surge before he got hurt. Gamel is also out on a rehab as of today, so some moves will be coming.

I think priority #1 is really just keeping Cruz in there at shortstop. The rest can fall into place, but the younger, the better. I guess maybe you shuffle the deck and see if you can find landing spots via trade for Newman and Gamel in the coming weeks, but I hope we don't strain ourselves too much. Mitchell has held his own ok and maybe Castillo can start punching back a bit at the plate, but if those guys get a few weeks in Indy to reset while we explore the possibilities with the veterans, I'm not going to lose a ton of sleep over it.

One thing I hate to bring up, but am going to anyways, is that I wonder if there will be any slight sabotaging of Cruz in terms of ROY chances. The race still remains pretty wide open, and thought it was the debut game etc., the official MLB accounts were already all over everything positive that he did. If he performs how he's capable with regular playing time, then it's a very viable possibility that he'll enter into the mix. If I had to make a bet right now, I could see him and Michael Harris ending up as the frontrunners by early August.
 
When there was no sign of him last week, I feared that heel/foot/ankle was worse than originally reported. Shitty news. He and Davis have had awful luck injury wise and you're talking our 2 most important bats in the minors.

 
ImporterExporter said:
When there was no sign of him last week, I feared that heel/foot/ankle was worse than originally reported. Shitty news. He and Davis have had awful luck injury wise and you're talking our 2 most important bats in the minors.

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Ouch. Time to downgrade Gonzales. That's a lot of development time missed, and he still hasn't adjusted his approach to a sustainable MLB one.
 
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