I dunno... Starting out with a 5-10 year honeymoon period of sellouts sounds like a successful market to me.
Historically there haven't been a ton of new markets that played to capacity the first 5-10 years regardless of how many doors were available to knock on.
To me, a smart "bid" for a NHL team in Quebec City would not be a "middling projection" one. Instead, you lay out a 20 year proposition divided by how much you make and stow away in the honeymoon phase because you *will* need to fall back on what you stow away when the market size reveals its limitations.
In terms of what QC "adds" to the NHL...well, it's weird because this is the Business of Hockey Forum and not the "Culture of Hockey" Forum. Culturally, I could argue QC adds more to the NHL than any other conceivable market because it really is unique as compared to any other viable North American market. Name another North American market, I can think of at least one that's relatively similar. You show me a market with 90% Francophone speakers with an arena that size in a market that small with a specific hockey culture that it has. It doesn't exist. Now you say "hey, Atlanta, blah blah blah," I'd argue from a strictly hockey culture perspective, Atlanta isn't that different from Houston or Dallas. Toronto is somewhat different from, say, a Boston or Chicago in that it's the other side of the border but otherwise similar. Montreal and Ottawa aren't facsimiles to each other but they are much more like each other than Quebec City is like anywhere else.
Point being, Quebec City is
really unique. And in that sense, it offers a cultural profile to the NHL no other market can offer.
But this is the
BoH forum and generally speaking, most of our conversations center on how major league sports businesses are run in the year 2024. And what adds to BUSINESS in sports is...other businesses and potential customers. In that sense, Quebec City couldn't hope to "add" anything to the league that an Atlanta, a Houston, or even a San Diego could. The $ (even before the exchange rate) and potential customer base just isn't there.
Now this isn't me stumping for Quebec over Atlanta, or Atlanta over Quebec, but saying that if/when the league goes to either market, how they "tout" that market as a success is going to look very different. If Atlanta 3.0 thrives, it's highly unlikely they'll be running massive press releases about the "southern flavour" this team has brought the sport (there are plenty of southern teams already). Instead, it's going to be straight numbers:
More corporate dollars, more people learning and playing the game, etc. etc. (and boy did everyone drop the ball on that second part in v2.0). Whereas if Quebec 3.0 ever happened, it would be touted as a unique cultural experience "every North American sports fan should experience once in their lives...a taste of some of hockey's roots," etc. etc. and no one would be saying a word about dollars, cents or sport growth.
