WJC: Quarter Final Talk!

[Deep Blue Metallic]

Czechia has got this one

Canada is absolute ass


Happy New Year btw

You guys.

Even with Canada missing huge stars to the NHL, and now Savoie on top of other injuries and illness, I still wouldn't be betting against them winning Gold. How many times do we see Canada disappointing early only to have them start to dominate when the games really matter, even with "weak" teams?

Happy New Year!

 

[llwyd]

Tbh, Slovakia doesn't scare me nearly as much as it should I'm pretty convinced we can handle them.

 

[IceHockeyDude]

If I had to lose to one team it would be Slovakia.

 

[Namejs]

According to bookies, it's
Finland 70/30 Slovakia
Sweden 92/8 Switzerland
USA 98/2 Latvia
Canada 87/13 Czechia

I think Czechia is a little underrated, but makes sense otherwise.

 

[Deep Blue Metallic]

According to bookies, it's
Finland 70/30 Slovakia
Sweden 92/8 Switzerland
USA 98/2 Latvia
Canada 87/13 Czechia

I think Czechia is a little underrated, but makes sense otherwise.

SVK is getting underrated.

They got blown out in a game in which they inexplicably rested their all-world goalie, and played at least as well as the USA for 35 minutes. Augustine stoned them.

Then the roof caved in.

I expect they'll play for a full 60 minutes against the Finns.

 

[czechcanadian]

According to bookies, it's
Finland 70/30 Slovakia
Sweden 92/8 Switzerland
USA 98/2 Latvia
Canada 87/13 Czechia

I think Czechia is a little underrated, but makes sense otherwise.

Yeah this quite surprises me but I guess we’ll see.
Czechs certainly have better chance than that? Other than Latvia game Canada hasn’t looked all that dominant.
Finland over Slovaks that much? I’m not as confident in Slovaks anymore but I don’t think you can bet against them that much with Gajan between the pipes.
Going to be a fun day!

 

[WayTooCold]

If the Slovaks keep their legs moving full 60min. It's gonna be tough for Finland. It's gonna be one goal game. 3-2 to either way.

 

[WarriorofTime]

Canada, Finland, Sweden, USA will all make it through, as expected.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Canada, Finland, Sweden, USA will all make it through, as expected.

I feel like the slovaks with Gajan in net are the favorite over the finns.

 

[WarriorofTime]

I feel like the slovaks with Gajan in net are the favorite over the finns.

I think they have a shot but I’m seeing odds at Finland -210/Slovakia +170.

 

[stastny12]

I'd argue we are both weaker than last years teams that met in the finals. Canada is obviously the better nation and has higher pedigree and higher drafted players. Czechs, I feel, can compete with anyone on a good day. 7 game series I take Canada every time. 1 game quarter... I think it's 50-50 this time. I like our goalie more and I think Kulich, Sapo and Sale would all make Team Canada this year. Our D is solid unlike the last 15 years. My brain says Canada 3-0. Going with my heart... Czechs 4-3 after Hrabals best performance and Kulich scoring a clutch goal.

Sorry, but it´s definitely not 50-50. Canadian team is very clearly superior to Czechia. You have 8 drafted players, Canada almost all of them + Celebrini. You definitely have some chance to beat them, though. However, Canada tends to switch to a higher performance level in the playoffs, and I am convinced that it will be the same this time.

 

[stastny12]

If I had to lose to one team it would be Slovakia.

Why? Just wondering...

 

[Antiillafire]

Slovak team finally had some decent depth now getting hit with injuries. Now Ciernik is out for the tournament. Add few more points to Finnish odds…

 

[Jukurit]

This Slovakian age group (2004-2005 born) beat Finland in 2021 Hlinka-Gretzky semifinal (6-2) and beat Finland in last year's U18 quarter-final (3-2). They can definitely beat Finland yet again.

Slovakia is a clear favourite against Finland. More talented team (3 first rounders, Finland has 0) and much better goaltender (Gajan vs. Vali).

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

I think they have a shot but I’m seeing odds at Finland -210/Slovakia +170.

Yeah I'm not surprised that they are betting favorites, but that's more of a reflection of betting patterns than actual odds.

Those are great odds to put money on slovakia IMO.

I think the Finns might have a slight advantage with skaters because of their depth, but the Slovaks have the better high end talent. More importantly, Gajan can be a game changer at this level. He could be particularly troublesome for a Finnish team that lacks elite finishing talent.

I'd have it as 55-45 in favor of the Slovaks.

 

[Namejs]

I feel like the slovaks with Gajan in net are the favorite over the finns.

Sorry, but this does not make any sense.
If Slovaks were playing Urban or Elias, they would maybe concede an extra goal on average. And if that were to happen, the odds would be more like 85/15.

 

[_vivelequebec_]

Sorry, but it´s definitely not 50-50. Canadian team is very clearly superior to Czechia. You have 8 drafted players, Canada almost all of them + Celebrini. You definitely have some chance to beat them, though. However, Canada tends to switch to a higher performance level in the playoffs, and I am convinced that it will be the same this time.

But Czechs have Hrabal… goalkeeping goes in their favor.

 

[Heldig]

Czechia has got this one

Canada is absolute ass


Happy New Year btw

A bit dramatic, no? They cant dominate every year. Other countries have good teams/players/years too.

The team is 2nd in goals for (despite only 1 player in top 20 in scoring). 2nd in goals against.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Sorry, but this does not make any sense.
If Slovaks were playing Urban or Elias, they would maybe concede an extra goal on average.

The difference between Gajan and Urban is more than a goal per game vs elite international teams. Take their raw save percentages in USHL play and apply it to 35 shots per game, Gajan allows 3.1 goals, while Urban would allow 4.2. Now extrapolate that for higher quality shooters than your typical USHL team, and the gap widens even further.

And if that were to happen, the odds would be more like 85/15.

Why are you starting from a basis that the betting odds are at all a realistic portrayal of the actual odds? The Slovakian team has better high end talent and a very strong defense. Even with equal goaltending the teams are very even. This is a very weak Finnish team, losing to a German team that got blown out by Latvia. Aside from one bad period with their 2nd and 3rd string goalies against a stacked US team, the Slovaks have looked pretty impressive, if inconsistent. They were very good in the first 2 periods against the USA, and excellent against the Czechs. They didn't play great vs Switzerland, but that's where having an elite goalie pays off.

 

[stastny12]

Slovak team finally had some decent depth now getting hit with injuries. Now Ciernik is out for the tournament. Add few more points to Finnish odds…

Since Ciernik didn´t contribute much, I wouldn´t add any extra points to Finnish odds, tbh. Never thought I´ll say this, but fortunately, Natny and Pisoja would be bigger losses and they´re ready to play.

 

[Namejs]

I'd have it as 55-45 in favor of the Slovaks.

You should be placing a very large bet on Slovakia right about now.

You're basically saying that the market is wrong to a point where you should be investing about a third of your entire investmest portfolio.

The difference between Gajan and Urban is more than a goal per game vs elite international teams. Take their raw save percentages in USHL play and apply it to 35 shots per game, Gajan allows 3.1 goals, while Urban would allow 4.2. Now extrapolate that for higher quality shooters than your typical USHL team, and the gap widens even further.



Why are you starting from a basis that the betting odds are at all a realistic portrayal of the actual odds? The Slovakian team has better high end talent and a very strong defense. Even with equal goaltending the teams are very even. This is a very weak Finnish team, losing to a German team that got blown out by Latvia. Aside from one bad period with their 2nd and 3rd string goalies against a stacked US team, the Slovaks have looked pretty impressive, if inconsistent. They were very good in the first 2 periods against the USA, and excellent against the Czechs. They didn't play great vs Switzerland, but that's where having an elite goalie pays off.

Your math is wrong.

88.7% of 35 is 31.05 or 3.95 GA
91% of 35 is 31.75 or 3.25 GA
Or on average a 0.7 goal differential, not 1.

I was being generous with that 'extra goal'.

Care to elaborate on the evidence backing up your claims of non-linear spread of expected SVS% when moving up a tier?

Any shots faced by a higher quality opposition would reduce Gajan's SVS% in a similar way. Your assumption is based on a non-falsifiable belief in Gajan's prowess, which is not backed up by data.

 

[Statsy]

But Czechs have Hrabal… goalkeeping goes in their favor.

What?! Have you been watching this tournament at all? Hrabal has been very questionable while Rousseau has been lights out.

 

[Namejs]

Why are you starting from a basis that the betting odds are at all a realistic portrayal of the actual odds? The Slovakian team has better high end talent and a very strong defense. Even with equal goaltending the teams are very even. This is a very weak Finnish team, losing to a German team that got blown out by Latvia. Aside from one bad period with their 2nd and 3rd string goalies against a stacked US team, the Slovaks have looked pretty impressive, if inconsistent. They were very good in the first 2 periods against the USA, and excellent against the Czechs. They didn't play great vs Switzerland, but that's where having an elite goalie pays off.

I am starting from that point, because 'that point' is what the entire concept of free market is based on. The market forces involved in betting increase or decrease the odds until they've reached an equilibrium.

What you're saying is that the market is very wrong.

The odds were not made up by some guy in an office, it's the grand total of people betting for/against said outcome.

If you're saying that the S&P 500 is wrong by 25%, you are the one with the burden of proof here.

But, in any case, it would be deeply irrational for you not to invest a lot of money by betting on Slovakia.

 

[Svedu]

Czechia 51- Canada 49.
Slovakia 65- Finland 35.
Sweden 99- Swiss 1.
USA 99.9- Latvia 0.1.

Those are my odds.

This tournament is interesting in many ways. I do believe the Czechs would beat Finland and they can also beat Canada. But I also believe Canada have a bigger chance for revenge against Sweden in a semi than the Czechs will have against the same team.
Also, I feel like all these favorite teams would have a bigger chance against the US in a eventual semi than Finland ever will have. I do not trust the slow Finnish D's against Slovakia and less so against the US.

 

[Czechboy]

Czechia 51- Canada 49.
Slovakia 65- Finland 35.
Sweden 99- Swiss 1.
USA 99.9- Latvia 0.1.

Those are my odds.

This tournament is interesting in many ways. I do believe the Czechs would beat Finland and they can also beat Canada. But I also believe Canada have a bigger chance for revenge against Sweden in a semi than the Czechs will have against the same team.
Also, I feel like all these favorite teams would have a bigger chance against the US in a eventual semi than Finland ever will have. I do not trust the slow Finnish D's against Slovakia and less so against the US.

I'd go a little higher for Finland. 20 for swiss and Latvia. They will compete hard, block shots etc. I don't like their chances obviously but hockey is a strange game.lol