Putting It All Together-What does Jarmo do now?

[Viqsi]

The problem for the CBJ is that they have played more games than most, and they have so many road games that just going .500 on the road won't get it. If they don't figure out how to win the majority on the road, then their fate is sealed.

We need to at least get back up to .500 on the road. The road record right now is abysmal - 3-8-1 or something equally painful to see.

 

[Dr. Fire]

We need to at least get back up to .500 on the road. The road record right now is abysmal - 3-8-1 or something equally painful to see.

Yea, I meant that they needed to win the majority of the rest. They certainly did not help themselves early on.

 

[Viqsi]

So, I just posted this in the "untouchables" thread on T&R in re: our roster's trade status. Seem reasonable to other folks?
Note: By "seem reasonable" I mean if it makes sense w/r/t our current status and is a close enough approximation. I know there's some folks who will disagree here and there (for example, I imagine IHZ will vociferously object to Tyutin's placement here ); I just wanted to get something close to consensus.

The entire CBJ roster (EDIT: plus some popular prospects), categorized by likely responses to trade offers requesting the said players, roughly from most to least willing.
Note that some players may move up or down a tier now and again as circumstances vary throughout the year.


"Yes, Please! Let's Make A Deal.":
Steve Mason
Adrian Aucoin

"Sure, We Can Make A Fair Deal.":
Derek MacKenzie
David Savard
Jared Boll

"A Deal Can Be Discussed.":
Nikita Nikitin
Dalton Prout
RJ Umberger
Derick Brassard

"We Really Like Them And Would Prefer To Keep Them.":
John Moore
Vinny Prospal
Mark Letestu
Cody Goloubef

"They Look Like They're Here For The Long Haul. A Deal Probably Isn't Reasonable.":
Fedor Tyutin
Matt Calvert
Nick Foligno
Brandon Dubinsky
Artem Anisimov
Tim Erixon
Derek Dorsett

"We Kind Of Need Them Right Now. A Trade Would Be Bad.":
James Wisniewski
Sergei Bobrovsky

"Don't Bother Asking. Really.":
Ryan Murray
Cam Atkinson
Boone Jenner
(also, any first round draft picks)

"We Really Don't Care What You Have To Say About Advanced Stats. Go Away.":
Jack Johnson

"

":
Ryan Johansen

 

[InjuredChoker]

So, I just posted this in the "untouchables" thread on T&R in re: our roster's trade status. Seem reasonable to other folks?
Note: By "seem reasonable" I mean if it makes sense w/r/t our current status and is a close enough approximation. I know there's some folks who will disagree here and there (for example, I imagine IHZ will vociferously object to Tyutin's placement here ); I just wanted to get something close to consensus.

Works for me.

Love the RyJo category.

 

[Fro]

i would slip Tyutin down a category or two...when he's on he's good, but if not, he's really bad...so if we got a decent deal for him, i personally, wouldn't be mad...other than that i like it..

 

[InjuredChoker]

i would slip Tyutin down a category or two...when he's on he's good, but if not, he's really bad...so if we got a decent deal for him, i personally, wouldn't be mad...other than that i like it..

NTC and that contract might limit trade options.

 

[JACKETfan]

Not a Ry Jo fan.
Prout >> Moore.

Make me and offer on Wiz.
Our 11 pt run without him proves his massive contract was a mistake.

 

[major major]

Not a Ry Jo fan.
Prout >> Moore.

Make me and offer on Wiz.
Our 11 pt run without him proves his massive contract was a mistake.

"Proves". uggh. By your standard of evidence I could say our Powerplay without him proves that we need him.

I do acknowledge the guy's faults. If I was coach I would cut back on Wiz's 5-on-5 unless we need a goal. But we'll be down a goal or two a lot, and we'll have a lot of powerplays, enough to justify keeping Wiz.

 

[Mayor Bee]

Not a Ry Jo fan.
Prout >> Moore.

Make me and offer on Wiz.
Our 11 pt run without him proves his massive contract was a mistake.

Pittsburgh has done pretty well the last couple of years without one of Crosby or Malkin.

Better dump them, right? Obviously they're not needed.

 

[EspenK]

For purposes of the trade thread the list isn't too far off from what I believe the consensus around here would be.

To me, however, there are no untouchables on this team.

I'd trade John Moore for RNH (or a comparable young forward) for example.

I'd trade Wiz for a solid top 6 forward who can put up 50 pts+

I'd trade Umberger in a heartbeat (well at least stinky Umbie, maybe not so much the last several games Umbie)

I'd throw in one of a bunch of guys and one or more of our picks to pick top 4.

Lots of deals I would do but they would have to make sense for both teams (or at least for the jackets, the other guys I don't really care about)

 

[major major]

So, I just posted this in the "untouchables" thread on T&R in re: our roster's trade status. Seem reasonable to other folks?
Note: By "seem reasonable" I mean if it makes sense w/r/t our current status and is a close enough approximation. I know there's some folks who will disagree here and there (for example, I imagine IHZ will vociferously object to Tyutin's placement here ); I just wanted to get something close to consensus.

It's a good list, and accurately captures our feelings as well.

I'd add Gillies into the please take group, move D-Mac and Boller into the prefer to keep list, and Moore goes into the "let's discuss" group. (anticipated returns play a role here).

 

[alphafox]

Not a Ry Jo fan.
Prout >> Moore.

The only way I trade Johan is

#1 For a legitimate star player (Matt duchene is the floor, and will never happen)
#2 For a top 4 pick this year (Jones, Mackinnon, Drouin, and Barkov will IMO all be better than he is)
#3 Multiple top 10 first round picks

Johansen is not putting up stats, which is unfortunate. His offense is developing slowly, but his defense and faceoff work is pretty extraordinary for how young he is. IMO, we may as well give up on the hope that he becomes the next Jumbo Joe, but I honestly think that he has the makings of a Patrice Bergeron/Selke level forward.

As for the Prout being better that Moore it is difficult to say. Right now the team desperately needs the big physical defensive defenseman. Prout brings a new and needed dimension to the team, whereas Moore's style is very similar to that played by most of our defenseman. I would be willing to trade Moore because I think he's been passed on the depth chart by Ryan Murray and Erixon, but I don't believe that Prout is better all around than Moore.

I would rank our Defense in terms of value to the Organization as
1. JMFJ
2. Tyutin
3. Erixon
4. Murray
5. Wiz
6.Moore
7. Prout
8. Aucoin
9. Nikitin

 

[major major]

In 2008 he could have used the 19th pick for a guy name of Eberle & at 67 he could have gone "off the board" and picked Adam Henrique -just sayin . (and trying to instigate a bit of impish fun).

Yes, and this would make a good point if anyone was arguing that Howson was Nostradamus, instead of just an average/above average drafting GM.

I know you're just having impish fun, but I'm on guard against this type of claim so I have to respond like the thought police. There are still lots of people out there who consider this type of claim "scrutiny" or "analysis" and don't know how to do the real thing.

 

[Samkow]

I'd trade John Moore for RNH (or a comparable young forward) for example.

I hope that's just impish fun as well. No way Edmonton does that. That's like trying to trade Derek MacKenzie for Ryan Johansen.

Now something that's intriguing to me, given the emergence of Erixon and the contract status of the top 4 defensemen is trading Ryan Murray for RNH. It's something I'd consider. Edmonton could really use a guy like Murray. (And why they didn't take him in June is somewhat puzzling)

 

[major major]

Rick Nash has 25 points.

Dubinsky, Anisimov and Erixon have a total of 23 points on the season. All have been of exemplarly character thus far this season, with Dubinsky and Anisimov already being talked about as part of the leadership group moving forward.

Extrapolating the stats alone out a full season, the three players that came here could equate, points-wise, to one Rick Nash.

In that, the deal is most likely a wash.

Oh boy. This zombie idea keeps popping up that we can compare the two sides of a 3 for 1 deal by adding up points. Even if points were the sole criterion by which to measure a player, this would be false because of the substitution effects. 3 roster players moving off the Rangers and one going the other way opens up two spaces for the Rangers for more production, and closes off two for the Jackets. If you wanted to do a points only comparison you would have to see how the players in question compare using value over replacement player or VORP. I don't do advanced stats but they're already on top of this concept.

 

[General Jacket70]

Don't be surprised if JD and JK move Dubinsky, either at the trade deadline or over the summer before the draft. He's been injured far too often, scored too few goals and the team is showing they can win without him. He has 9 points in 19 games and is a -4 +/-. His biggest liability though is that 4.2 mil cap hit for another two years. I could see the CBJ trading him for second round pick and prospect. . . .

 

[General Jacket70]

I also think that Wizniewski will be traded (not likely) or bought out this summer (through the NHL compliance buyouts). Again, overpaying for not enough production (9 points in 15 games, and again the team is winning without him). He's only had one good NHL year (2010-2011 with Islanders/Canadians) and that 5.5 mil cap hit for 4 more years will really squeeze the CBJ long term if they keep him (they're going to have to pay the young'uns soon).

 

[SuperGenius]

Don't be surprised if JD and JK move Dubinsky, either at the trade deadline or over the summer before the draft. He's been injured far too often, scored too few goals and the team is showing they can win without him. He has 9 points in 19 games and is a -4 +/-. His biggest liability though is that 4.2 mil cap hit for another two years. I could see the CBJ trading him for second round pick and prospect. . . .

It's just not going to happen.

The argument "the team showing they can win without him" makes no sense to me. As Mayor said in another thread, while teams, say Pittsburgh, get along without Malkin or Crosby - that means they're ok to deal them? No effin way. Regarding his value to the team, there are other stats that matter besides points and +/- He's great at faceoffs, a dominating forechecker and very good at the PK. While that cap hit is higher than we'd like, they do have to pay someone to meet the cap floor and I'm not at all concerned that it's a matter of affording him.

I also think that Wizniewski will be traded (not likely) or bought out this summer (through the NHL compliance buyouts). Again, overpaying for not enough production (9 points in 15 games, and again the team is winning without him). He's only had one good NHL year (2010-2011 with Islanders/Canadians) and that 5.5 mil cap hit for 4 more years will really squeeze the CBJ long term if they keep him.

Why would you want to pay him 2.75 for the next however long to play for someone else? Jeez. 9 points in 15 games is bad? for a defenseman? what exactly are you expecting?

 

[blahblah]

So, I just posted this in the "untouchables" thread on T&R in re: our roster's trade status. Seem reasonable to other folks?
Note: By "seem reasonable" I mean if it makes sense w/r/t our current status and is a close enough approximation. I know there's some folks who will disagree here and there (for example, I imagine IHZ will vociferously object to Tyutin's placement here ); I just wanted to get something close to consensus.

Seems fairly representative, good effort. Of course, I'd tweak it a bit, but it would only be slight modifications.

 

[EspenK]

I hope that's just impish fun as well. No way Edmonton does that. That's like trying to trade Derek MacKenzie for Ryan Johansen.

Now something that's intriguing to me, given the emergence of Erixon and the contract status of the top 4 defensemen is trading Ryan Murray for RNH. It's something I'd consider. Edmonton could really use a guy like Murray. (And why they didn't take him in June is somewhat puzzling)

The point I was trying to make is that I would trade one of our young D guys for a really good young forward. Murray for RNH I would do. We don't know what Murray will do nor do we really know what RNH will do career wise. The point is I think trades have to be made taking a look at the organization's need and where we have a surplus and where we have a shortage. We have D depth but no real offensive talent.

 

[jacketsinDC]

I would prefer to see nikitin go first among the defense on roster. Tyutin has made him look better than he is (there is a reason fans of other teams ask about tyutin's availability). then wiz, who, at 5.5 mil, either needs to be paired with someone who can cover up for his poor defense or traded.

one of umberger or dubinsky could be expendable assuming they can acquire a top-6 forward capable of scoring, for next year. You can't have three stone-hands brontosauruses in your top-6 (umberger, dubinsky, foligno) unless malkin or crosby is feeding them.

trade: nikitin and umberger (preferably) Brass would be but he's got another year at a decent price and is one of the few creative players on the team. there's not enough offense as it is.

 

[General Jacket70]

It's just not going to happen.

The argument "the team showing they can win without him" makes no sense to me. As Mayor said in another thread, while teams, say Pittsburgh, get along without Malkin or Crosby - that means they're ok to deal them? No effin way. Regarding his value to the team, there are other stats that matter besides points and +/- He's great at faceoffs, a dominating forechecker and very good at the PK. While that cap hit is higher than we'd like, they do have to pay someone to meet the cap floor and I'm not at all concerned that it's a matter of affording him.

He can't do any of those other things while he's watching from the press box or staying behind in Columbus. His injury situation and cap hit are his main drawbacks. I won't even touch your cap floor argument. Finally, lets be real, he's not a Crosby or Malkin on a good day. . . .

Look they may not trade him, but JK is a stats guy, and the stats say the CBJ are not getting their money's worth right now. I totally agree about his heart, attitude, and his faceoff percentage and that's also why I think he get's moved at the deadline while he still has value. With Johanson, Ansimov, and Brassard down the middle, JD and JK can afford to deal Dubinsky for a good package. All I am saying is don't get too attached, because JD and JK are looking long term and Dubi may be moved to further that long term plan. Just my opinion. . .

Why would you want to pay him 2.75 for the next however long to play for someone else? Jeez. 9 points in 15 games is bad? for a defenseman? what exactly are you expecting?

I'm expecting Wisniewski to be a consistent points producer, which is why he was signed to that huge contract. I think we all can agree that Howson overpayed to get him, but he would have gotten that from any team at the time. Since then, he played only 48 of 82 games last year and has only suited up for 15 this year. Again, if he's consistently missing games, that's (a lot of) money wasted.


From CapGeek.com: (if he gets bought out over the summer, here's his cap hit)

James Wisniewski is 29 years old on the buyout date of June 15, 2013 (simulated, not actual), setting the buyout ratio at 2/3 and the total buyout cost at $12,666,667 spread over 8 years. His contract was originally valued at $33,000,000 beginning in 2011 and ending in 2017, with $19,000,000 remaining from the buyout year forward.

CAP HIT BREAKDOWN
James Wisniewski buyout from CapGeek.com
2013-14: $1,083,333
2014-15: $2,083,333
2015-16: $2,083,333
2016-17: $4,083,333
2017-18: $1,583,333
2018-19: $1,583,333
2019-20: $1,583,333
2020-21: $1,583,333

And remember, his cap hit is $5.5 mil until the end of 2016-2017. So in essence, the CBJ would save about $6.34 mil if they bought him out. Maybe they don't buy him out, but he's going to be a huge cap hit either way in 2016-2017, ($5,500,000 cap hit if he's on the roster vs $4,083,333 cap hit buyout cost) well into his 30's. I just don't know if his stats justify his contract and his games played certainly do not. I trust JD and JK to do the right thing and it wouldn't surprise me to see him (and/or Dubinsky) traded or bought out. . . Just my opinions, take um or leave um. . .

 

[major major]

I'm not sure if I like this presumption that we're going to be not only a cap team, but a cap team that buys out players so they spend even more than the cap. Why would our owner agree to that?

And in real money terms, Wiz's salary for the remaining four years after this year averages less than $5 million per year. I don't mind that one bit, and its crazy to think we'd pay him $12 million to go play for someone else, when we clearly need him on our team. He adds a lot, IMO.

 

[EspenK]

No way Wiz gets bought out this year. Traded maybe but not bought out.

 

[Sore Loser]

No way Wiz gets bought out this year. Traded maybe but not bought out.

Agreed.