Prospects who have stagnated.

[Pavels Dog]

Saying Dalibor Dvorsky stalled is a ridiculous take. After leaving a SHL team whose only concern was winning now to avoid relegation thus stapled him to the bench for 57 minutes a game, he absolutely dominated at Sudbury. He's got a chance to earn a roster spot out of camp. That's the high end of the trajectory we expected from him when we drafted him.

This thread is overall pretty dumb but you also don't need to invent a narrative for why Dvorsky failed in the SHL to justify his exemption from it. He was given a fair opportunity and was simply unplayable. I would be absolutely shocked if just a year later he can be NHL caliber, especially given that even in some recent clips of him I think some of the same bad habits are showing up.

 

[Snubbed4Vezina]

This thread is overall pretty dumb but you also don't need to invent a narrative for why Dvorsky failed in the SHL to justify his exemption from it. He was given a fair opportunity and was simply unplayable. I would be absolutely shocked if just a year later he can be NHL caliber, especially given that even in some recent clips of him I think some of the same bad habits are showing up.

He was one of the youngest players to be drafted in the 2023 class and needed grooming playing with men for the first time. You don't think Allvenskan's fear of relegation prevented them from giving him the opportunity to deserve? Saying he was given a fair opportunity is laughable. He had no runway for success there because of the team's dreadful start.

They were not interested in guiding a very young prospect along. They were trying to save face.

 

[Pavels Dog]

He was one of the youngest players to be drafted in the 2023 class and needed grooming playing with men for the first time. You don't think Allvenskan's fear of relegation prevented them from giving him the opportunity to deserve? Saying he was given a fair opportunity is laughable. He had no runway for success there because of the team's dreadful start.

They were not interested in guiding a very young prospect along. They were trying to save face.

Plenty of prospects need adjustment and runway to adjust to the SHL, you're right, but rarely have I seen an NHL caliber prospect look so out of place as Dvorsky did. Blame the team if you want to, but he looked like the team's worst player so...

 

[Snubbed4Vezina]

Plenty of prospects need adjustment and runway to adjust to the SHL, you're right, but rarely have I seen an NHL caliber prospect look so out of place as Dvorsky did. Blame the team if you want to, but he looked like the team's worst player so...

You could tell that from his 120 seconds of ice time each night? Amazing.

 

[Pavels Dog]

You could tell that from his 120 seconds of ice time each night? Amazing.

His lowest icetime in the first 8 games was 9 minutes. Mostly between 11-15 minutes.
Instead of making up storylines that aren't true you should focus on things that are probably more accurate; i.e. he simply wasn't ready for that level of hockey. He wasn't great in Allsvenskan the year prior either, so I can sort of understand why someone would find him stagnant. 2 seasons in a row he's failed to answer if his game can truly shine at the pro level.

 

[Snubbed4Vezina]

His lowest icetime in the first 8 games was 9 minutes. Mostly between 11-15 minutes.
Instead of making up storylines that aren't true you should focus on things that are probably more accurate; i.e. he simply wasn't ready for that level of hockey. He wasn't great in Allsvenskan the year prior either, so I can sort of understand why someone would find him stagnant. 2 seasons in a row he's failed to answer if his game can truly shine at the pro level.

You're right, I was being sarcastic but that doesn't come through in text. It's unlikely that Dvorsky was going to be given the latitude to learn and grow in that current situation which is why he didn't play out the season. As soon as he got off to a slow start on a team that clearly started to feel the desperation of a comically awful beginning of the season, it didn't take long at all before they abandoned any commitment they made to him.

Was he ready for the SHL last season? To start the season, no, and you'd be foolish to expect a barely-18 year old to be that player early in the season. What he needed is some level of commitment to develop him, which Oskarshamn didn't give him once they crapped the bed early on which is the reason behind his move to the OHL.

There's no storyline being made up here. That's a joke of an assertion given how quickly they were to take away most of his ice time. Once he struggled to start the season on a team that was godawful as a whole, he was never going to be given the chance. They couldn't wait to staple him to the bench. It was the worst situation for a young kid to be in in a league with relegation. End result: Dvorsky goes to Sudbury and absolutely dominates. It's laughable for anyone to say he's stalled after what he did there especially since he's going to be in camp with the NHL team that drafted him. If he didn't end up playing a short stint in the SHL and instead started the season in Sudbury, we wouldn't even be having this conversation. He'd be on everyone's watch list.

 

[Nogatco Rd]

I mean the literal definition of stagnating is "cease developing".

That implies they are done developing.

Stagnating and being a disappointment/not living up to expectations are two completely different things...

So if someone describes the economy as stagnant, you think that means it will never resume growth?

I think you're misunderstanding the term. If a prospect has shown no signs of growth over a given period, their development can correctly be described as having stagnated over that time frame. Doesn't mean they won't ever improve again.

 

[Juxtaposer]

You're right, I was being sarcastic but that doesn't come through in text. It's unlikely that Dvorsky was going to be given the latitude to learn and grow in that current situation which is why he didn't play out the season. As soon as he got off to a slow start on a team that clearly started to feel the desperation of a comically awful beginning of the season, it didn't take long at all before they abandoned any commitment they made to him.

Was he ready for the SHL last season? To start the season, no, and you'd be foolish to expect a barely-18 year old to be that player early in the season. What he needed is some level of commitment to develop him, which Oskarshamn didn't give him once they crapped the bed early on which is the reason behind his move to the OHL.

There's no storyline being made up here. That's a joke of an assertion given how quickly they were to take away most of his ice time. Once he struggled to start the season on a team that was godawful as a whole, he was never going to be given the chance. They couldn't wait to staple him to the bench. It was the worst situation for a young kid to be in in a league with relegation. End result: Dvorsky goes to Sudbury and absolutely dominates. It's laughable for anyone to say he's stalled after what he did there especially since he's going to be in camp with the NHL team that drafted him. If he didn't end up playing a short stint in the SHL and instead started the season in Sudbury, we wouldn't even be having this conversation. He'd be on everyone's watch list.

Both David Edstrom and Filip Bystedt played full SHL seasons and scored at fairly impressive rates as 18 year olds in the draft+1 seasons. It's extremely reasonable to expect an 18 year old first round pick to be able to hold down a regular shift in the SHL and it's a bit concerning that Dvorsky could not. Especially when he did not produce exceptionally well in the Allsvensken in his draft year either and the concern with this player has always been that he has only ever been productive against his own age group.

 

[Snubbed4Vezina]

Both David Edstrom and Filip Bystedt played full SHL seasons and scored at fairly impressive rates as 18 year olds in the draft+1 seasons. It's extremely reasonable to expect an 18 year old first round pick to be able to hold down a regular shift in the SHL and it's a bit concerning that Dvorsky could not. Especially when he did not produce exceptionally well in the Allsvensken in his draft year either and the concern with this player has always been that he has only ever been productive against his own age group.

Of course it can be done. They were they given more than 10 games to figure things out before being stapled to the bench. Were their teams by far the worst team in the SHL to start the season and fearing relegation?

It's not difficult to see that Dvorsky wasn't going to be given a fair shake.

 

[Juxtaposer]

Two players. What'd they do in their first 10 games? Were they given more than 10 games to figure things out before being stapled to the bench? Were their teams by far the worst team in the SHL to start the season and fearing relegation?

I can't speak to Edstrom but Bystedt scored greater than a half point a game in his first 10 games and looked great, eventually winning SHL rookie of the year. And saying that coaches couldn't trust Dvorsky to play because the stakes were high is not exactly helping his case. Linköping finished the season 12th of 14 SHL teams and Bystedt was still able to find regular playing time and the back of the net.

 

[Snubbed4Vezina]

I can't speak to Edstrom but Bystedt scored greater than a half point a game in his first 10 games and looked great, eventually winning SHL rookie of the year. And saying that coaches couldn't trust Dvorsky to play because the stakes were high is not exactly helping his case. Linköping finished the season 12th of 14 SHL teams and Bystedt was still able to find regular playing time and the back of the net.

You can point to outliers at any stage of development. Fact is, Dvorsky was in a terrible situation for a young prospect. The fact that he struggled for his first 10 games doesn't mean he couldn't have figured it out on a team that could've given him a longer leash. His team couldn't afford that, because they were pathetically bad. What were they, something like 5-16 to start the season?

It was an awful situation for a prospect and he wasn't given a fair shake which is why he ended up in Sudbury where he absolutely dominated. If you can't acknowledge why that would be an awful situation for a player that was one of the youngest players in his draft class, and you think instead that he "stagnated", then we'll just have to agree to disagree.

 

[Juxtaposer]

You can point to outliers at any stage of development. Fact is, Dvorsky was in a terrible situation for a young prospect. The fact that he struggled for his first 10 games doesn't mean he couldn't have figured it out on a team that could've given him a longer leash. His team couldn't afford that, because they were pathetically bad. What were they, something like 5-16 to start the season?

It was an awful situation for a prospect and he wasn't given a fair shake which is why he ended up in Sudbury where he absolutely dominated. If you can't acknowledge why that would be an awful situation for a player that was one of the youngest players in his draft class, and you think instead that he "stagnated", then we'll just have to agree to disagree.

You keep acting like Dvorsky's play had no impact on the fact that he couldn't keep a regular spot in the SHL when the reality is that multiple posters who watched him said that he was actively the worst player on his roster, and acting like Dvorsky being a June birthday instead of like, a March birthday had literally any impact on this is insane. It's clear to me that you have no interest in an objective assessment of Dvorsky as a player or as a prospect and just want to make excuses for him.

By the way, I watched a metric ton of Dvorsky in the OHL this season because of Quentin Musty. If you're impressed that he can physically bully kids, great. I'm not.

Let's go back, ten years of Swedish forward prospects drafted in the 1st round, and look at the even moderately successful ones.

William Nylander (9th overall) D+1: PPG in ~20 SHL games, then jump to the AHL
Adrian Kempe (29th overall) D+1: 17 points in 50 SHL games
Joel Eriksson-Ek (20th overall) D+1: 15 points in 41 SHL games
Elias Pettersson (5th overall) D+1: 56 points in 44 SHL games
Isac Lundestrom (23rd overall) D+1: 9 points in 17 SHL games, then 6 in 12 AHL games
Alexander Holtz (7th overall) D+1: 18 points in 40 SHL games
Lucas Raymond (4th overall) D+1: 18 points in 34 SHL games
William Eklund (7th overall) D+1: 14 points in 29 SHL games, considered "disastrous"

Hell, Nils Hoglander, drafted 40th overall in 2019, scored 14 points in 50 SHL games in his D+1 season. Fabian Zetterlund, drafted 63rd overall in 2017 with an August birthday, scored 7 points in 35 SHL games in his D+1 season.

If anyone is the outlier, it's Dvorsky. It's extremely, extremely common and basically a rule that a highly-drafted forward prospect developing in Sweden who is going to amount to anything is capable of locking down a full time role in the SHL.

Filip Bystedt is on track, Otto Stenberg is on track, David Edstrom is on track. The few in the last couple years who haven't are the guys like Lekkerimaki, Ostlund, etc. who have been in the Allsvenskan because their teams were relegated and are very physically underdeveloped; Dvorsky has man strength already.

Edit: And Lekkerimaki, Ostlund, and Ohgren were actually relegated and had SHL games played in their draft seasons, so you can't use Dvorsky's horrible relegation team as an excuse.

 

[Snubbed4Vezina]

Jesus man. I'm not reading all of that. I hope you chime back in when he sees playing time with the Blues this season. Since he's stagnated and all in his D+1 season. I couldn't care less what he did during his brief stay in Oskarshamn. The whole team was a shit show.

Writing off a prospect who put up 45 goals + 88 points in the OHL because of a rough 10 games on the SHL's worst team is comical. That's without mentioning how solid he was in the WJC as well.

 

[Juxtaposer]

Jesus man. I'm not reading all of that. I hope you chime back in when he sees playing time with the Blues this season. Since he's stagnated and all in his D+1 season. I couldn't care less what he did during his brief stay in Oskarshamn. The whole team was a shit show.

Writing off a prospect who put up 45 goals + 88 points in the OHL because of a rough 10 games on the SHL's worst team is comical. That's without mentioning how solid he was in the WJC as well.

So I do the legwork to show that literally every worthwhile forward prospect who came up through the Swedish development system in the late ten years both played full SHL seasons and produced at reasonable clips in their D+1 season in response to you claiming that Bystedt making the SHL in his D+1 season was an outlier and after talking out your ass in this thread all you got is "I can't read!!"? Embarrassing.

 

[Pavels Dog]

Jesus man. I'm not reading all of that. I hope you chime back in when he sees playing time with the Blues this season. Since he's stagnated and all in his D+1 season. I couldn't care less what he did during his brief stay in Oskarshamn. The whole team was a shit show.

Writing off a prospect who put up 45 goals + 88 points in the OHL because of a rough 10 games on the SHL's worst team is comical. That's without mentioning how solid he was in the WJC as well.

The concern to me would be that even if you want to write off his poor performance in the SHL, he also was a complete non-factor when games got important in Allsvenskan.

Last 13GP (including playoffs) in Allsvenskan: 0G, 0A, 13SOG, -8
Meaning his last 23GP at the pro level is: 0G, 0A, 24SOG, -14

To completely excuse that you need to blame two different teams, at two different levels, ignore any eye tests or underlying numbers, and view Dvorsky as a unique specimen within SHL/Allsvenskan history. That's a lot of jumping through hoops to not be at least a little concerned.

On the positive side I think you can hope for a development like the one Brad Lambert has had so far. Where he's got a bad track record at the pro level, but takes a step back to juniors and then bounces back with a strong AHL year.
I do think you're tripping a bit if you think Dvorsky has NHL potential this upcoming season however.

 

[MS]

He was one of the youngest players to be drafted in the 2023 class and needed grooming playing with men for the first time. You don't think Allvenskan's fear of relegation prevented them from giving him the opportunity to deserve? Saying he was given a fair opportunity is laughable. He had no runway for success there because of the team's dreadful start.

They were not interested in guiding a very young prospect along. They were trying to save face.

A prospect drafted where Dvorsky was (especially in that draft) should have walked into being a key player for that team in his draft+1. Case closed.

 

[Finster8]

Michael Misa and Filip Ekberg are guys whom aren’t yet drafted that have stagnated, also.

Misa is in his draft year this season had a good season. He really played a solid 2way game in the playoffs and the MC. I don’t think he was at 100% but showed he is maturing in his D-1 year.
The team was stacked with plenty of guys who could score. Hence beating London in the final. He is still growing into his body 6’1 185 and can see him close to 90 pts this season. He could stagnate to a top 10 pick in the 25 NHL Draft. JMO this young man at 17 and he is a natural C was on LW with Beck, Sapovaliv and Hay with more experience at C.

 

[Hattrick Kane]

I watched Dvorsky a lot in Sudbury. Very easily the third best player on his line, like not particularly close either. Also seemed to struggle with quick decision making, held onto the puck way too long.

Needs to work on that because it’s not working in juniors and it certainly won’t work in the NHL. And he’s definitely not ready this year.

 

[TLEH]

Reichel fits the bill, lol @ Pavel derailing the first few pages. Its not about Adam Fantilli or Carlsson, its about his erection for Michkov.

 

[tanti9]

I do think that one year after their draft season you cannot tell if someone has taken a step back or regressed. Everyone was saying the same thing about Lekkerimaki in Vancouver and he seems to be fine. I believe if a player has not shown significant progress after Draft +3 then you have a strong case. My two cents.

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

Of course it can be done. They were they given more than 10 games to figure things out before being stapled to the bench. Were their teams by far the worst team in the SHL to start the season and fearing relegation?

It's not difficult to see that Dvorsky wasn't going to be given a fair shake.

Dvo wasn't put into position to succeed. He didn't play well. The team failed him, but he didn't exactly show much either. All can be true and I think are.

He isn't some forechecking dynamo like Edstrom who can easily slide into almost any lineup. I am Edstrom fan, think he is gonna be good NHL player, but he doesn't have Dvo's upside. Dvo is skilled player, great shooter, who needs to play with skilled players to make offensive impact (at least at this point). That isn't necessarily to his credit, but it I'm not sure that we should read too much more into it. I think it's reasonable to expect that if he was nearly ready to be NHL player he should have made at least SOME offensive impact in SHL, but I don't know that it tells us much about his ultimate projection. I do think he needs to go to A and dominate before we call him up.

 

[DollardStLaurent]

You're right, I was being sarcastic but that doesn't come through in text. It's unlikely that Dvorsky was going to be given the latitude to learn and grow in that current situation which is why he didn't play out the season. As soon as he got off to a slow start on a team that clearly started to feel the desperation of a comically awful beginning of the season, it didn't take long at all before they abandoned any commitment they made to him.

Was he ready for the SHL last season? To start the season, no, and you'd be foolish to expect a barely-18 year old to be that player early in the season. What he needed is some level of commitment to develop him, which Oskarshamn didn't give him once they crapped the bed early on which is the reason behind his move to the OHL.

There's no storyline being made up here. That's a joke of an assertion given how quickly they were to take away most of his ice time. Once he struggled to start the season on a team that was godawful as a whole, he was never going to be given the chance. They couldn't wait to staple him to the bench. It was the worst situation for a young kid to be in in a league with relegation. End result: Dvorsky goes to Sudbury and absolutely dominates. It's laughable for anyone to say he's stalled after what he did there especially since he's going to be in camp with the NHL team that drafted him. If he didn't end up playing a short stint in the SHL and instead started the season in Sudbury, we wouldn't even be having this conversation. He'd be on everyone's watch list.

Just shows the gap between the SHL and the CHL and I think the phrase "absolutely dominates" is a bit excessive.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

Just shows the gap between the SHL and the CHL and I think the phrase "absolutely dominates" is a bit excessive.

No dog in this fight but I’ll share the below link which does use the phrase “I didn’t expect him to be as dominant both ways as he was”

One person isn’t the the be all end all but this discussion made me think of the article and Brock, whose OHL coverage is great.

Top 25 OHL Prospects - Summer of 2024

The Memorial Cup and the NHL Draft are in the rear view mirror; everyone is in summer mode. That means it is time to update my annual Top OH...

ohlprospects.blogspot.com

 

[SoundAndFury]

I think if Dvorsky was drafted #20 and not #10 everyone would be fine with his development. Since he was #10, everyone expected him to make an impact at the SHL level despite having a pretty weak season before in the Allsvenskan. I don't think those were fair expectations so to a degree, everyone in this thread is right. Except for the part of expecting Dvorsky in the NHL this year, that's just some more of the same wishful thinking.

 

[samsagat]

Filip Mesar.. never really understood what the Habs amateur draft brass have seen in him.

He's the prototypical vanilla ice cream player.

Not enough gifted offensively to have an impact on an NHL top 6 and not having what it takes to be an effective middle 6 or bottom 6/role player.

Did Habs fell for the proverbial "aaawn story" about him and Slafkovsky being childhood good friends?

We all know how much the Habs organization loves "feel good" stories.

Mesar was one of my "no draft" young guys in the 2022 draft...