Prospect Info: Prospect Info and Discussion VIII - Future Canes and other Jurcos

[My Special Purpose]

Save % is often overweighted. As you mentioned what matters is winning. In Ned's pedestrian 17-18 he had fifth most wins ever by a 21-year-old in the AHL. He had 31 wins in 49 games. Fourth on the list is Tukka Rask with 33 wins in 57 games.

Any prospect-watcher who saw Nedeljkovic play in either of his first two pro seasons came away with the same conclusion: he was all over the place, inconsistent, overly-reliant on his athleticism, and a long way from the NHL. It's not all about the stats. Ned didn't play well his first two pro seasons.

 

[Bunch of Jurcos]

Very nice sliding save to start the 3rd for Kotch. It's amazing that a man that big can be that agile. Huge save with 3 minutes left in the 3rd off a very bad turnover in SKA's defensive zone to keep the game tied at 3. SKA's defense has played like trash today.

Kotch stood tall in overtime making another really nice save on a 3 on 2 breakaway and he gets the win.

 

[MinJaBen]

Any prospect-watcher who saw Nedeljkovic play in either of his first two pro seasons came away with the same conclusion: he was all over the place, inconsistent, overly-reliant on his athleticism, and a long way from the NHL. It's not all about the stats. Ned didn't play well his first two pro seasons.

Oh, no....we developed a prospect!

I'm in no way endorsing Ned over any of the goalies we have, but he has gotten better, which is exactly what we would want him to do. I don't see him being an NHL number one mostly because I think his size will limit him, but I'd be very happy to see him become a homegrown 1B to another 1A on the team.

 

[My Special Purpose]

Very nice sliding save to start the 3rd for Kotch. It's amazing that a man that big can be that agile. Huge save with 3 minutes left in the 3rd off a very bad turnover in SKA's defensive zone to keep the game tied at 3. SKA's defense has played like trash today.

Yet, only 17 shots allowed. Shots were 17-3 for SKA in the third, but we head to OT. Sounds like he may fit in here after all.

 

[Bunch of Jurcos]

Yet, only 17 shots allowed. Shots were 17-3 for SKA in the third, but we head to OT. Sounds like he may fit in here after all.

SKA had the puck for most of the game save the flurry in the second period early. Their zone exits were really rough, they turned the puck over frequently in their own zone, and on the shots that Kotch did see they were dangerous areas. If Traktor had been any better they would have won this easily.

 

[emptyNedder]

Any prospect-watcher who saw Nedeljkovic play in either of his first two pro seasons came away with the same conclusion: he was all over the place, inconsistent, overly-reliant on his athleticism, and a long way from the NHL. It's not all about the stats. Ned didn't play well his first two pro seasons.

I agree it is not about the stats—except the wins. As mentioned Ned in his bad year won more games than all but four goalies in the history of the AHL. And his stats were significantly better than the numbers 21-year-old, 6'3" Ilya Samsonov just put up. Most prospect watchers have Samsonov in the top 5 goalie prospects.
Look I get the concern with his size and movement (and how much he loves to handle the puck to be honest). Still, he is consistently winning, which is more important than looking good.

 

[NotOpie]

Huh? Literally the only objective analysis in which Ned is more advanced than Kochetkov is that he's 3 1/2 years older.

My actual question is, which league(s) are considered superior: the MHL, the VHL, and/or the AHL?

Granted, Ned is 3 years older than Kochetkov, so that has to be a consideration, but I also agree that you cannot ignore the development progression. One other point that I'll make is that both of these goalies seem to thrive under pressure. Kotchekov's limited post-season history and his WJC history are superb. But you can't ignore Ned's WJC and post-season performance as well, especially the last 3 professional years.

All in all, the fact that we're arguing over which of our outstanding goalie prospects is better, is somewhat surreal to this long time Hurricanes fan....

 

[ONO94]

And this is just for arguments sake as I believe size does matter for NHL goalies but....

Antii Raanta was the starting goalie for the Coyotes before he got hurt and was the starter the year before. Carter Hutton for the Sabres was the starter over Ullmark, old friend Anton Khudobin and Jaro Halak played 5 games less than Bishop and Rask, respectively. Coming up, Nashville is contemplating a move to Jussi Saros if Rinne struggles and is the starter in waiting regardless. The list isn't huge and the deck is stacked against the smaller goalies but they can still be successful in the NHL, even if they are not as consistently good. That said, the list of 6'1" and above goalies that are highly unsuccessful in the NHL is also long--so the question may be a bit of a chicken and the egg argument. Are the 6 foot and less goalies even given a chance anymore at the developmental levels, much less the NHL?

 

[emptyNedder]

All in all, the fact that we're arguing over which of our outstanding goalie prospects is better, is somewhat surreal to this long time Hurricanes fan....

Not to mention Booth and Helvig have also both shown solid progress. A good problem.

 

[My Special Purpose]

I agree it is not about the stats—except the wins. As mentioned Ned in his bad year won more games than all but four goalies in the history of the AHL. And his stats were significantly better than the numbers 21-year-old, 6'3" Ilya Samsonov just put up. Most prospect watchers have Samsonov in the top 5 goalie prospects.
Look I get the concern with his size and movement (and how much he loves to handle the puck to be honest). Still, he is consistently winning, which is more important than looking good.

I strenuously disagree with pretty much every word of this post, but not strenuously enough to point out all the ways it's completely untrue, because basically it's flatly obvious to anyone who's ever done even a minute of research. Of all the stats in the world, goalie wins are very likely the single most worthless of them all.

 

[vorbis]

just based on the one game I saw Nedeljkovic play in person in the Calder Cup playoffs, he still has significant wrinkles in his game to iron out before he can be a shoe-in for longterm games in Raleigh.

the tools are there: super agile as a goalie, very engaged, honestly a pleasure to watch him play the puck. but that might be both a blessing and a curse throughout his career, just like it was in the game I saw. he had a huge error in the pivotal playoff game I saw (road game 4 of a 7-game series) that honestly should have directly led to a goal, which involved him leaving the crease when he almost certainly shouldn't have. this led to him getting washed out by his own defenseman and if any Toronto Marlie had been in the neighborhood, they could have just tapped the puck into the empty net. in that same game, he let in a very very soft goal from just over the blue line, and allowed a blind shot from behind the net to ricochet off his own leg into the goal to tie the game in the 3rd period.

he went on to play very well based on the games I watched online for the rest of that series, and in the following two rounds as well (in a reasonably split tandem with Dustin Tokarski, it should be noted).

to me, the error I saw that didn't ultimately lead to a goal is an issue, and definitely not a minor one. I do think it can be significantly improved with experience, and I do think his good will continue to outweigh his bad, especially at the AHL level. and I don't think seeing an error like that, even in a pivotal playoff game, warrants trying to change how he plays, especially since playing the puck can be such a weapon for him.

but imo it's way premature to paint him as having accomplished all he needs to accomplish at the AHL level. I think it's prudent to expect these sorts of hiccups for players of Nedeljkovic's age, but I also think that's precisely why you don't get an itchy trigger finger to promote them before they're fully ready. especially goalies, who are 1) voodoo, and 2) subject to extreme mentality and intensity standards due to their position.

 

[A Star is Burns]

Dustin Tokarski won every effing game he played for Charlotte. Charlotte has been a good team. The wins mean very little.

 

[Cane mutiny]

Exciting to think we could have a great tandem with Ned and Kochetkov in the near future. Something we've missed for a long time. Hope it works out. I can't think of a team that deserves it more after how we've struggled with goalies.

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

Exciting to think we could have a great tandem with Ned and Kochetkov in the near future. Something we've missed for a long time. Hope it works out. I can't think of a team that deserves it more after how we've struggled with goalies.

Philadelphia. Philadelphia deserves it more.

 

[CandyCanes]

Philadelphia. Philadelphia deserves it more.

This is true. But they’re gonna get it from Hart, he seems like the real deal. But they blew their chance with Bobrovsky. I think we’re certainly next in line in who deserves a top 10-15 franchise goalie for a while.

 

[WreckingCrew]

just based on the one game I saw Nedeljkovic play in person in the Calder Cup playoffs, he still has significant wrinkles in his game to iron out before he can be a shoe-in for longterm games in Raleigh.

the tools are there: super agile as a goalie, very engaged, honestly a pleasure to watch him play the puck. but that might be both a blessing and a curse throughout his career, just like it was in the game I saw. he had a huge error in the pivotal playoff game I saw (road game 4 of a 7-game series) that honestly should have directly led to a goal, which involved him leaving the crease when he almost certainly shouldn't have. this led to him getting washed out by his own defenseman and if any Toronto Marlie had been in the neighborhood, they could have just tapped the puck into the empty net. in that same game, he let in a very very soft goal from just over the blue line, and allowed a blind shot from behind the net to ricochet off his own leg into the goal to tie the game in the 3rd period.

he went on to play very well based on the games I watched online for the rest of that series, and in the following two rounds as well (in a reasonably split tandem with Dustin Tokarski, it should be noted).

to me, the error I saw that didn't ultimately lead to a goal is an issue, and definitely not a minor one. I do think it can be significantly improved with experience, and I do think his good will continue to outweigh his bad, especially at the AHL level. and I don't think seeing an error like that, even in a pivotal playoff game, warrants trying to change how he plays, especially since playing the puck can be such a weapon for him.

but imo it's way premature to paint him as having accomplished all he needs to accomplish at the AHL level. I think it's prudent to expect these sorts of hiccups for players of Nedeljkovic's age, but I also think that's precisely why you don't get an itchy trigger finger to promote them before they're fully ready. especially goalies, who are 1) voodoo, and 2) subject to extreme mentality and intensity standards due to their position.

Yea, I pretty much agree with your assessment here. I remember once last year guy was coming flying down the ice and Ned came flying back out at him, made an incredible flying/diving poke-check, and the puck went right to the trailing guy for a long but open-net shot. He reminds me A LOT of Mrazek, he's very competitive, very aggressive, athletic, and can scramble well. Unfortunately when you're aggressive, if they get past you, it's easy to score...even more so when you're battling being a smaller goalie and can be exposed more easily. When he was on, and the team in front of him was supporting him well, he was "lights out" (he could make an incredible first save and know the D would help stop any follow-up shots). But when he was off, or the D wasn't as engaged, he was very pedestrian. Looking at his game-log last year, he was almost always either > .917%, or < .890%, with very little in between. I'd like him to get about 15 starts this year so we can get a better idea if he's NHL ready or not (even if it's just as a backup)

 

[emptyNedder]

Looking at his game-log last year, he was almost always either > .917%, or < .890%, with very little in between.

That is primarily a function of facing <=30 shots per game. Giving up 2 goals gets you above .917 giving up 3 means around or below .890.

Pronman in his prospects rankings stated that Ned seemed to become steadier in January. Ned had 27 starts in 2019. In those 27 starts his sv% was below .900 4 times, including the last two starts when the Checkers had clinched everything. For comparison in 15-16 Matt Murray (his last AHL season) had 3 sub .900 starts in his last 12 games; in 17-18 Jordan Binnington had 4 sub .900 starts in his last 15 games.

I am not saying anything other than game-by-game sv% is hyper-sensitive.

 

[NotOpie]

I strenuously disagree with pretty much every word of this post, but not strenuously enough to point out all the ways it's completely untrue, because basically it's flatly obvious to anyone who's ever done even a minute of research. Of all the stats in the world, goalie wins are very likely the single most worthless of them all.

Worthless, except in the sense of the standings.

Wins are important, but are rarely the function of a single player's, even a goalie's, efforts. We know how few and far between "goalie stolen games" actually are. The cold harsh reality is that most wins are a team effort and many, if not most, losses are attributable to goaltending in some way, shape, or form. Sad but true....

Still, I like Ned and think he's made some nice strides. But I'm also not ready to give him the NHL job without a bit of a longer test. I'd like to see him get 8 or 10 games this season while totally dominating the AHL. If he doesn't show well in one or both of those situations, then I think that tells us a lot about his future.

 

[Unsustainable]

This is true. But they’re gonna get it from Hart, he seems like the real deal. But they blew their chance with Bobrovsky. I think we’re certainly next in line in who deserves a top 10-15 franchise goalie for a while.

They need a dedicated psychologist for that player.

 

[Helsinki Hurricanes]

Tuukka Tieksola playing in the third line for FEL team Kärpät in a Champions Hockey League game. Centered by a former Florida Panther Juho Lammikko. Also good opportunity to also check Puljujärvi's game.

 

[Lempo]

Revenge of the Wolf-Burners.

 

[GoldiFox]

Earlier in the game:

 

[GoldiFox]

Kochetkov starting today for SKA St Petersburg

 

[GoldiFox]

Kochetkov saves a Penalty Shot. Just bodied the guy, no mercy.

 

[vorbis]

Kochetkov saves a Penalty Shot. Just bodied the guy, no mercy.

nice save. but I don't think that will go on any highlight reels for the penalty taker. that was rather ungraceful.