Pronman: Ranking U23 NHL players and prospects

[qc14]

Wheeler definitely has his types and I think is slow to change his opinion on guys almost to a fault, but he is at least pretty consistent and I think has very well-thought, informative pieces on almost everyone. Pronman is just all over the place all the time and not a particularly good or interesting writer either.

 

[majormajor]

He updated the list... It's still pretty rancid.

I'm not sure he's ever watched Simon Edvinsson play. He still refers to Michael Brandsegg-Nygard as "Average sized" but I guess I don't look at a 6' 1" 207 lb 18 year old as "Average sized" by NHL standards. Maybe for a position player in college football?

This is one issue where I think Pronman is generallly getting it right. You refer to a player's size relative to NHL averages, and the height is the biggest predictor of how much weight they can gain. A player like MBN (who I'm the highest on) might not get much bigger. However he's already a freakishly strong prospect and stronger than most NHLers, which ought to push aside the size discussion for this particular player.

The simplest mistake that people make in scouting is not imagining how players size up vs real NHLers. Like a 6'0 power forward in junior is going to look small in the NHL. Carson Rehkopf is a 6'2 dominant power forward in junior who might look average, or worse if his compete issue persists, in the NHL. Denton Mateychuk was built like a square already in junior, just an inch on the short side, he looks positively tiny in the NHL. Thankfully he has a top end brain.

Is it just me or does he do a better job of plugging into what teams are thinking at draft time than evaluating prospects himself?

With Bob-father in semi-retirement there really isn't anybody else I trust to do the former but Pronman might be the closest.

The idea any one guy can have a correct eval on 100s of prospects around the globe was always questionable but things go off the rails with him pretty quickly I find

That's how I view Pronman - the absolute best right now at gathering scout opinion and sharing it with us heathens. But there are some issues.

When it comes to ranking prospects he can be very stubborn, and it really shows when he's ranking already in the NHL players. I actually like to some degree that he tunes out the noise on junior players and leaves aside a lot of the analytics (which doesn't translate league to league), but you should pay attention to that stuff for guys who are already in the NHL. Like looking at a stretch of 3 players in the 20s on his list - Faber, Kent Johnson, and Seth Jarvis. KJ I would put higher but I understand having him lower, he's an upside pick who hasn't done it yet in the NHL. But Faber and Jarvis are already pushing All Star level in the NHL. Why is Pronman ignoring that? Leaving aside the stats in juniors can be smart scouting, doing it for already in the NHL players is ludicrous. Jarvis, FWIW, is currently the top analytics forward in Carolina, ahead of Aho, Svech, and Necas.

Yeah Pronman is a good source for when he talks about what real NHL scouts say about players, but he has gone a bit overboard with size. It seems like every couple of years he swings way too far one way, then realizes he's been getting some players wrong, then completely shifts gears. If I'm not mistaken, he was obsessed with smaller players a few years ago

He made just one big swing and that was 5-10 years ago, I can't remember exactly when.

Someone explained to him that the public discussion of upside in hockey is backwards relative to the inside discussion, and backwards relative to how it is done in other sports. We were talking about 5'9 forwards scoring 130 pts in junior and talking about their sensational upside, when really it is the 6'6 gangly kid who had sensational upside, if he could gain coordination.

Now that I think of it - this happens to be essentially a Matt Savoie vs Maveric Lamoureux comparison. It would have looked absurd if you wrote on HF in 2022 that Lamoureux had higher upside than Savoie.

Anyways I give Pronman credit for overhaulling his whole approach based on the evidence.

Yep, there is a lot of inconsistency there. MBN is going to play at 215-225 when he's fully grown and putting him as averaged sized is just more of his cursory silliness.

What makes you think MBN will play at 215-225? Like perhaps people have analyzed his shirtless frame and figured out that he has room for it. In MBN's case, he's already freakishly strong and might be better off playing at 207, he'll win his battles already at that weight and can focus on playing at the ideal weight for speed and endurance.

Sometimes there are prospects who are drafted at league average dimensions - meaning a height and weight relative to each other, in this case 6'1 207 - and they stay that way. "He's already filled out", I'm sure you've heard the phrase used.

Wheeler definitely has his types and I think is slow to change his opinion on guys almost to a fault, but he is at least pretty consistent and I think has very well-thought, informative pieces on almost everyone. Pronman is just all over the place all the time and not a particularly good or interesting writer either.

Wheeler is a good writer and Pronman is a bad writer. And I think you're right about the consistency and the details too.

But in terms of the scouting philosophy, Pronman has moved closer to how NHL scouts think and Wheeler is more stubborn about it. He's still getting smitten with all of these Vitali Abramov and Jordan Dumais types. That's hard for me to look past.

I feel like Wheeler and Pronman would make a better scouting team, if they worked together, and Wheeler did all the writing.

 

[newfy]

Read what I wrote, but a little bit slower, and concentrate on the part about the OP, try opening the OP.

Unlike you, I read slow enough that I realised the OP was from September and that this was a necro thread. So since you had the wrong link, I tried filling you in on the actual list that was being talked about now. But go off queen

 

[Golden_Jet]

Unlike you, I read slow enough that I realised the OP was from September and that this was a necro thread. So since you had the wrong link, I tried filling you in on the actual list that was being talked about now. But go off queen

If you had read what I said initially you would of realized what I was talking about, and actually mentioned that there was a new version, instead you said I was wrong and failed to mention anything about a new version.

So ya you screwed up on reading comprehension initially but it’s ok though, we’re all used to it by now.

Plus you were about 3- 4 posters late on updating me,
Queen lol, c’mon grow up, or are you a teenager.

 

[Chainshot]

This is one issue where I think Pronman is generallly getting it right. You refer to a player's size relative to NHL averages, and the height is the biggest predictor of how much weight they can gain. A player like MBN (who I'm the highest on) might not get much bigger. However he's already a freakishly strong prospect and stronger than most NHLers, which ought to push aside the size discussion for this particular player.

The simplest mistake that people make in scouting is not imagining how players size up vs real NHLers. Like a 6'0 power forward in junior is going to look small in the NHL. Carson Rehkopf is a 6'2 dominant power forward in junior who might look average, or worse if his compete issue persists, in the NHL. Denton Mateychuk was built like a square already in junior, just an inch on the short side, he looks positively tiny in the NHL. Thankfully he has a top end brain.



That's how I view Pronman - the absolute best right now at gathering scout opinion and sharing it with us heathens. But there are some issues.

When it comes to ranking prospects he can be very stubborn, and it really shows when he's ranking already in the NHL players. I actually like to some degree that he tunes out the noise on junior players and leaves aside a lot of the analytics (which doesn't translate league to league), but you should pay attention to that stuff for guys who are already in the NHL. Like looking at a stretch of 3 players in the 20s on his list - Faber, Kent Johnson, and Seth Jarvis. KJ I would put higher but I understand having him lower, he's an upside pick who hasn't done it yet in the NHL. But Faber and Jarvis are already pushing All Star level in the NHL. Why is Pronman ignoring that? Leaving aside the stats in juniors can be smart scouting, doing it for already in the NHL players is ludicrous. Jarvis, FWIW, is currently the top analytics forward in Carolina, ahead of Aho, Svech, and Necas.



He made just one big swing and that was 5-10 years ago, I can't remember exactly when.

Someone explained to him that the public discussion of upside in hockey is backwards relative to the inside discussion, and backwards relative to how it is done in other sports. We were talking about 5'9 forwards scoring 130 pts in junior and talking about their sensational upside, when really it is the 6'6 gangly kid who had sensational upside, if he could gain coordination.

Now that I think of it - this happens to be essentially a Matt Savoie vs Maveric Lamoureux comparison. It would have looked absurd if you wrote on HF in 2022 that Lamoureux had higher upside than Savoie.

Anyways I give Pronman credit for overhaulling his whole approach based on the evidence.



What makes you think MBN will play at 215-225? Like perhaps people have analyzed his shirtless frame and figured out that he has room for it. In MBN's case, he's already freakishly strong and might be better off playing at 207, he'll win his battles already at that weight and can focus on playing at the ideal weight for speed and endurance.

Sometimes there are prospects who are drafted at league average dimensions - meaning a height and weight relative to each other, in this case 6'1 207 - and they stay that way. "He's already filled out", I'm sure you've heard the phrase used.



Wheeler is a good writer and Pronman is a bad writer. And I think you're right about the consistency and the details too.

But in terms of the scouting philosophy, Pronman has moved closer to how NHL scouts think and Wheeler is more stubborn about it. He's still getting smitten with all of these Vitali Abramov and Jordan Dumais types. That's hard for me to look past.

I feel like Wheeler and Pronman would make a better scouting team, if they worked together, and Wheeler did all the writing.

Specific to my comment is that most males gain muscle mass after the age of 18 until around 22, particularly pro athletes.

 

[majormajor]

Specific to my comment is that most males gain muscle mass after the age of 18 until around 22, particularly pro athletes.

Well yeah, and what about athletes that are already proportionate (e.g. 6'1 207)? Some turn into super thick TImo Meier types and some are just filled out early.

In any case, as I was saying, this ought to be all besides the point with MBN, who is a beast right now, without gaining another lb.

 

[Pavels Dog]

Hutson at 39 is the least serious hockey opinion I’ve ever seen

I didn't think it would be possible for Pronman to top ranking Raymond 28th last year, but yeah that Hutson ranking might just do it.

But this is par for the course when it comes to him. He's constantly undervaluing the guys that are already doing it at the NHL level. Simon Edvinsson is Detroit's 2nd best defenseman, on pace for 30+ points and leads the team in +/- and he's ranked in the 40s?

 

[ccman68]

I don't think Pronman actually watches any of these guys after they get drafted. He just looks at point totals and combines those with his thoughts from before the draft. Him talking about Luke Hughes like a player who is never gonna play good defense is just hilarious.

 

[SannywithoutCompy]

This is one issue where I think Pronman is generallly getting it right. You refer to a player's size relative to NHL averages, and the height is the biggest predictor of how much weight they can gain. A player like MBN (who I'm the highest on) might not get much bigger. However he's already a freakishly strong prospect and stronger than most NHLers, which ought to push aside the size discussion for this particular player.

The simplest mistake that people make in scouting is not imagining how players size up vs real NHLers. Like a 6'0 power forward in junior is going to look small in the NHL. Carson Rehkopf is a 6'2 dominant power forward in junior who might look average, or worse if his compete issue persists, in the NHL. Denton Mateychuk was built like a square already in junior, just an inch on the short side, he looks positively tiny in the NHL. Thankfully he has a top end brain.



That's how I view Pronman - the absolute best right now at gathering scout opinion and sharing it with us heathens. But there are some issues.

When it comes to ranking prospects he can be very stubborn, and it really shows when he's ranking already in the NHL players. I actually like to some degree that he tunes out the noise on junior players and leaves aside a lot of the analytics (which doesn't translate league to league), but you should pay attention to that stuff for guys who are already in the NHL. Like looking at a stretch of 3 players in the 20s on his list - Faber, Kent Johnson, and Seth Jarvis. KJ I would put higher but I understand having him lower, he's an upside pick who hasn't done it yet in the NHL. But Faber and Jarvis are already pushing All Star level in the NHL. Why is Pronman ignoring that? Leaving aside the stats in juniors can be smart scouting, doing it for already in the NHL players is ludicrous. Jarvis, FWIW, is currently the top analytics forward in Carolina, ahead of Aho, Svech, and Necas.



He made just one big swing and that was 5-10 years ago, I can't remember exactly when.

Someone explained to him that the public discussion of upside in hockey is backwards relative to the inside discussion, and backwards relative to how it is done in other sports. We were talking about 5'9 forwards scoring 130 pts in junior and talking about their sensational upside, when really it is the 6'6 gangly kid who had sensational upside, if he could gain coordination.

Now that I think of it - this happens to be essentially a Matt Savoie vs Maveric Lamoureux comparison. It would have looked absurd if you wrote on HF in 2022 that Lamoureux had higher upside than Savoie.

Anyways I give Pronman credit for overhaulling his whole approach based on the evidence.



What makes you think MBN will play at 215-225? Like perhaps people have analyzed his shirtless frame and figured out that he has room for it. In MBN's case, he's already freakishly strong and might be better off playing at 207, he'll win his battles already at that weight and can focus on playing at the ideal weight for speed and endurance.

Sometimes there are prospects who are drafted at league average dimensions - meaning a height and weight relative to each other, in this case 6'1 207 - and they stay that way. "He's already filled out", I'm sure you've heard the phrase used.



Wheeler is a good writer and Pronman is a bad writer. And I think you're right about the consistency and the details too.

But in terms of the scouting philosophy, Pronman has moved closer to how NHL scouts think and Wheeler is more stubborn about it. He's still getting smitten with all of these Vitali Abramov and Jordan Dumais types. That's hard for me to look past.

I feel like Wheeler and Pronman would make a better scouting team, if they worked together, and Wheeler did all the writing.

Come on now, for every Abramov and Dumais there's at least a Tufte, a Stanley (who has no business being in the NHL, but size gets overrated), a Morin

 

[coooldude]

Guys, disagree with Pronman all you want, but it's not hard for him to justify his rankings. He specifically says his rankings reflect who he thinks is going to have the best career. So any player who is already in the league and doing it, whether he's right or wrong, he can easily argue, "sure, but that's the ceiling."

I'm with posters who think he's stubborn and probably wrong on Hutson, for example, and I agree his skill rankings are meaningless, but I don't think it's a good argument to say "how can he think X is worse than Y when X is already in the league and doing it?" Answer: he thinks in 15 years the Y player will have surpassed the X player. Simple.

 

[Frederixx]

Guys, disagree with Pronman all you want, but it's not hard for him to justify his rankings. He specifically says his rankings reflect who he thinks is going to have the best career. So any player who is already in the league and doing it, whether he's right or wrong, he can easily argue, "sure, but that's the ceiling."

I'm with posters who think he's stubborn and probably wrong on Hutson, for example, and I agree his skill rankings are meaningless, but I don't think it's a good argument to say "how can he think X is worse than Y when X is already in the league and doing it?" Answer: he thinks in 15 years the Y player will have surpassed the X player. Simple.

Could be, but he has an awful track record and has been way off. An average poster on HFBoard would have similar results if not better

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

Wheeler definitely has his types and I think is slow to change his opinion on guys almost to a fault, but he is at least pretty consistent and I think has very well-thought, informative pieces on almost everyone. Pronman is just all over the place all the time and not a particularly good or interesting writer either.

Wheeler is consistent in that he puts zero value in anything other than offense, which leads to validated criticism that he's nothing more than a stat watcher.

I recall in Fall of 2020 after Seider had plowed through the AHL at 19, Wheeler ranked him 22nd among drafted prospects.

The names above him included Perfetti, Holtz, (Both over Stutzle lol) Newhook, Drysdale, Turcotte, Lundell, Kaliyev, Nick Robertson, and Vilardi.

Within a month of that list coming out, Seider was tearing into the SHL and Wheeler admitted he was wrong about Seider... Then ranked him 11th on his 2021 list, after he was named SHL defenseman of the year.

 

[coooldude]

Could be, but he has an awful track record and has been way off. An average poster on HFBoard would have similar results if not better

I think everyone sucks at prospect prognostication because it's really hard to judge 17 year olds and how their game translates. In that sense, maybe all of us would do as well but we'd all do badly. What I value Pronman for is his connections to pro scouts and execs, yielding the best idea of how the teams are viewing prospects. At this point, potentially better than Bob MacKenzie, who is only polling like 10 friends.

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

I think everyone sucks at prospect prognostication because it's really hard to judge 17 year olds and how their game translates. In that sense, maybe all of us would do as well but we'd all do badly. What I value Pronman for is his connections to pro scouts and execs, yielding the best idea of how the teams are viewing prospects. At this point, potentially better than Bob MacKenzie, who is only polling like 10 friends.

 

[coooldude]

View attachment 962660

Anything useful to add? Funny photo though

 

[qc14]

Wheeler is consistent in that he puts zero value in anything other than offense, which leads to validated criticism that he's nothing more than a stat watcher.

I recall in Fall of 2020 after Seider had plowed through the AHL at 19, Wheeler ranked him 22nd among drafted prospects.

The names above him included Perfetti, Holtz, (Both over Stutzle lol) Newhook, Drysdale, Turcotte, Lundell, Kaliyev, Nick Robertson, and Vilardi.

Within a month of that list coming out, Seider was tearing into the SHL and Wheeler admitted he was wrong about Seider... Then ranked him 11th on his 2021 list, after he was named SHL defenseman of the year.

Eh being so reliant on offense has its ups and downs. I think it generally has more ups though, especially compared to a guy like Pronman who for some players seems to deliberately dismiss scoring.

Wheeler is also an actually good writer who clearly takes time to flesh out and communicate his opinions even when in some cases (like Seider) they are wrong. Pronman is well plugged in, but I don't find his writing to be very interesting and he certainly isn't a good enough talent evaluator to make up for it.

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

Anything useful to add? Funny photo though

Not really. I don't expect a rational conversation out of the claim that Bob McKenzie, who routinely pisses people off on draft day by spoiling every pick, isn't as credible or connected or in the know as Corey Pronman.

I'm pretty sure even Pronman would laugh at that claim.

 

[coooldude]

Not really. I don't expect a rational conversation out of the claim that Bob McKenzie, who routinely pisses people off on draft day by spoiling every pick, isn't as credible or connected or in the know as Corey Pronman.

I'm pretty sure even Pronman would laugh at that claim.

Bob's great, but let's not pretend that Bob is as in the know as you claimed. He does not regularly spoil every pick. Last year he was fine but not as plugged in as a bunch of others who called Sennecke, called Yak, etc.

He's obviously an insider and the OG, but his polling is literally 10 contacts on 10 teams out of 32. He's not getting a great sample, and the younger guys are catching up simply through volume.

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

Bob's great, but let's not pretend that Bob is as in the know as you claimed. He does not regularly spoil every pick. Last year he was fine but not as plugged in as a bunch of others who called Sennecke, called Yak, etc.

He's obviously an insider and the OG, but his polling is literally 10 contacts on 10 teams out of 32. He's not getting a great sample, and the younger guys are catching up simply through volume.

Bob polling 10 of his "Friends" that are NHL scouts is still more accurate than Pronman's opinion.

That's not even a diss on Pronman's opinion lol.

 

[The Gr8 Dane]

I didn't think it would be possible for Pronman to top ranking Raymond 28th last year, but yeah that Hutson ranking might just do it.

But this is par for the course when it comes to him. He's constantly undervaluing the guys that are already doing it at the NHL level. Simon Edvinsson is Detroit's 2nd best defenseman, on pace for 30+ points and leads the team in +/- and he's ranked in the 40s?

Hutson is 6th in scoring for Dmen and Raymond is top 20 in scoring in the game lol definitely did not age well

 

[coooldude]

Bob polling 10 of his "Friends" that are NHL scouts is still more accurate than Pronman's opinion.

That's not even a diss on Pronman's opinion lol.

I don't care about Pronman's opinion. The post you meme replied to literally says that. If you can't see that he and others are more and more plugged in and MacKenzie is just on cruise control, then I guess we'll just be in disagreement.

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

Hutson is 6th in scoring for Dmen and Raymond is top 20 in scoring in the game lol definitely did not age well

If I'm not mistaken, Raymond is #1 for all U23 in scoring this season lol.

At least Corey corrected him to Top 10, I guess.

 

[majormajor]

Bob polling 10 of his "Friends" that are NHL scouts is still more accurate than Pronman's opinion.

That's not even a diss on Pronman's opinion lol.

Pronman polling NHL scouts is also more accurate than Pronman's opinion. You do realize that Pronman is polling and quoting them extensively?

 

[SannywithoutCompy]

Beyond everything else I don't think there's a single thing Slaf does better than Demidov and yet he's 2 spots ahead

 

[WarriorofTime]

Hard to ever put that much faith into JournoScouting. There's just too many players to survey, and much of their day job is filled writing actual articles. They're just going off stats, vibes and general consensus with their personal touch added in. Real scouts aren't journalists, they're scouts, and it's the Head Scout's job to synthesize the work of a various team of scouts that focused more narrowly and in detail, and present that in turn to the GM.