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Pronman: Ranking U23 NHL players and prospects

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CallMeShaft said:
Not making a new thread about it because it's somewhat adjacent to his U23 ranking, but Pronman lists the rebuilding teams by which ones are most likely to become contenders in the future. He includes every team that missed the playoffs last season in this list.


1. Blackhawks
2. Senators
3. Ducks
4. Sharks
5. Devils
6. Utah
7. Sabres
8. Kraken
9. Habs
10. Wild
11. Jackets
12. Wings
13. Flyers
14. Blues
15. Flames
16. Penguins
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There are two teams here whose fans I think will be extremely upset about their rankings, even though I agree with it.
 
Juxtaposer said:
There are two teams here whose fans I think will be extremely upset about their rankings, even though I agree with it.
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Habs and Buffalo ? Wings ? Pretty surprised to see Ottawa so high . They have a nice young roster but not a deep prospect cupboard. However I think I remember him having Sanderson and Yamechuk extremely highly ranked ( relative to others ) . So I guess I kinda get it . He’s already pot committed
 
TheKrebsCycle said:
Habs and Buffalo ? Wings ? Pretty surprised to see Ottawa so high . They have a nice young roster but not a deep prospect cupboard. However I think I remember him having Sanderson and Yamechuk extremely highly ranked ( relative to others ) . So I guess I kinda get it . He’s already pot committed
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I was thinking Montreal and Detroit. Buffalo fans' spirits are broken enough that I don't think they'll passionately argue against this ranking (although feel free to disagree on that assessment :laugh:)

From the U23 rankings, Sanderson seemed appropriately placed and even maybe a little low. He had Stützle 2nd overall which I don't agree with and Yakemchuk really really high. He also calls Brady Tkachuk an 'elite' player in this article so one has to assume he really likes him too.

I'd say that NJ and Columbus are a tad too low, Ottawa too high, and the rankings for SJ/Chicago/Anaheim are predicated on teenagers hitting their projections so I wouldn't be mad if anyone had them a little lower than this ranking, but overall it seems reasonable.
 
Juxtaposer said:
I was thinking Montreal and Detroit. Buffalo fans' spirits are broken enough that I don't think they'll passionately argue against this ranking (although feel free to disagree on that assessment :laugh:)

From the U23 rankings, Sanderson seemed appropriately placed and even maybe a little low. He had Stützle 2nd overall which I don't agree with and Yakemchuk really really high. He also calls Brady Tkachuk an 'elite' player in this article so one has to assume he really likes him too.

I'd say that NJ and Columbus are a tad too low, Ottawa too high, and the rankings for SJ/Chicago/Anaheim are predicated on teenagers hitting their projections so I wouldn't be mad if anyone had them a little lower than this ranking, but overall it seems reasonable.
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As a Habs fan I think he has them 1 or two spots two low, but not having NJD/Buffalo 1 and 2 is way more stupid
 
thebestnic said:
As a Habs fan I think he has them 1 or two spots two low, but not having NJD/Buffalo 1 and 2 is way more stupid
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The issue with Buffalo is that all their truly high-end players (Thompson, Dahlin, Cozens, Power, etc.) are all in the NHL already and have multiple full NHL seasons under their belts. Yes, there's still a good prospect pool there with the Helenius' and Kulichs and Ostlunds and such, but there really isn't a game-breaker in their system. And yet, they still can't make the playoffs. Who in their system is going to get them over the hump into constant contention? I don't see it.

The thing I like about this style of ranking is that it's specifically tailored towards which team has the absolute highest potential in the future, rather than who is gonna make the playoffs first or who is going to be consistently a low-end playoff team for the next ten years. That's why Detroit is so low despite the fact that they're already a borderline playoff team and have a strong prospect system.

On the flip side, a team like SJ/Anaheim/Chicago has a ways to go but a clear path towards becoming a legit contender. They have clear-cut franchise 1Cs in Celebrini/Bedard/Carlsson, solid systems around them at all positions, and more time to accumulate additional high-end assets. That is to say, the Sharks are going to add either a third 1C prospect (Hagens), a 1D prospect (Schaefer), or a Matthew Tkachuk type of franchise winger (Martone) next summer, and that fact is somewhat built-in to this ranking. Ditto Chicago and Anaheim. The Sabres and Wings, for example, are not.

That's why Columbus is a confusingly low ranking to me. They have a franchise 1C in Fantilli at the same level as Carlsson and Celebrini, another potential franchise forward in Lindstrom, a bunch of early-twenties supporting forwards with proven NHL ability, and a nice collection of D prospects lead by Jiricek and Mateychuk. Plus, they're likely to add another top-10 pick next summer.

Similarly, NJ has a franchise forward in J. Hughes, a very high-end 2C in Hischier, and an embarrassment of riches in high-end teenage defensemen.

I digress. YMMV with these sorts of rankings depending on what you most value.
 
Juxtaposer said:
The issue with Buffalo is that all their truly high-end players (Thompson, Dahlin, Cozens, Power, etc.) are all in the NHL already and have multiple full NHL seasons under their belts. Yes, there's still a good prospect pool there with the Helenius' and Kulichs and Ostlunds and such, but there really isn't a game-breaker in their system. And yet, they still can't make the playoffs. Who in their system is going to get them over the hump into constant contention? I don't see it.

The thing I like about this style of ranking is that it's specifically tailored towards which team has the absolute highest potential in the future, rather than who is gonna make the playoffs first or who is going to be consistently a low-end playoff team for the next ten years. That's why Detroit is so low despite the fact that they're already a borderline playoff team and have a strong prospect system.

On the flip side, a team like SJ/Anaheim/Chicago has a ways to go but a clear path towards becoming a legit contender. They have clear-cut franchise 1Cs in Celebrini/Bedard/Carlsson, solid systems around them at all positions, and more time to accumulate additional high-end assets. That is to say, the Sharks are going to add either a third 1C prospect (Hagens), a 1D prospect (Schaefer), or a Matthew Tkachuk type of franchise winger (Martone) next summer, and that fact is somewhat built-in to this ranking. Ditto Chicago and Anaheim. The Sabres and Wings, for example, are not.

That's why Columbus is a confusingly low ranking to me. They have a franchise 1C in Fantilli at the same level as Carlsson and Celebrini, another potential franchise forward in Lindstrom, a bunch of early-twenties supporting forwards with proven NHL ability, and a nice collection of D prospects lead by Jiricek and Mateychuk. Plus, they're likely to add another top-10 pick next summer.

Similarly, NJ has a franchise forward in J. Hughes, a very high-end 2C in Hischier, and an embarrassment of riches in high-end teenage defensemen.

I digress. YMMV with these sorts of rankings depending on what you most value.
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Aside from Tage they have yet to reach their potential though. Placing scorched earth rebuilds ahead of teams that are already proven to an extent doesn't make sense if you're trying to see which teams are most likely going to be contenders(NJD was a contender two years ago with the same core). Guys like Hischier, Hamilton, Bratt, Meier, Thompson, Tuch do matter. The ranking would make more sense if it said u23 ranking or something
 
thebestnic said:
Aside from Tage they have yet to reach their potential though. Placing scorched earth rebuilds ahead of teams that are already proven to an extent doesn't make sense if you're trying to see which teams are most likely going to be contenders(NJD was a contender two years ago with the same core). Guys like Hischier, Hamilton, Bratt, Meier, Thompson, Tuch do matter. The ranking would make more sense if it said u23 ranking or something
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I guess my issue with Buffalo is 1) I don't believe Tage Thompson is a franchise center, but rather a mid- to low-end 1C and 2) I don't like the construction of their roster. Too many left-handed PMDs and second line forwards, not enough defensemen who play defense well and legit top line scorers. That middle six is going to get gummed up with a ton of good 60 point forwards in Benson/Cozens/Quinn/Peterka/Kulich/Helenius/Ostlund/Rosen/Tuch/Greenway, and the way average NHLers get paid these days they won't be able to keep all those guys. I firmly believe that the key to contention is having a couple superstars, the right roster construction, and catching lightning in a bottle. I believe the only superstar in the Sabres org is Dahlin, the roster construction is poor right now, and based on the vibes of the past decade I don't think the Sabres will get lucky. If the Sabres traded some of those forwards and some picks for a legit 25 year old top-4 right-handed shutdown defenseman and a potential star forward, that would change things for me.

This is all just purely my opinion, and I think there are valid arguments the other way, I just have some strong beliefs about being an NHL contender. The Sabres are my East team, so I've been experiencing the letdown and frustration to some lesser degree than true Sabres fans have for the last several years.
 
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Stewie Griffin said:
If you listen to the podcast, he actually discusses the Faber ranking. Basically says he doesn't expect him to always have the opportunity he did last season when a guy like Buium comes in.

And the reason he ranks some recent drafted players over guys already in the NHL is that they have more room to grow/could have higher potential compared to guys in the league.

That's literally all from him on the podcast, not me FYI.
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I've listened to the podcast. I still don't think he follows much of an internal logic. Is Silayev going to get top opportunities on a team with Hamilton, Hughes and Nemec? Yakemchuk on a team with Chabot and Sanderson? How is Shane Wright going to get top line opportunities if Matty Beniers is an elite #1C? Etc.

Again, his lists age poorly for actual reasons. Some of the errors he makes are completely unforced.
 
He updated the list... It's still pretty rancid.

I'm not sure he's ever watched Simon Edvinsson play. He still refers to Michael Brandsegg-Nygard as "Average sized" but I guess I don't look at a 6' 1" 207 lb 18 year old as "Average sized" by NHL standards. Maybe for a position player in college football?
 
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Is it just me or does he do a better job of plugging into what teams are thinking at draft time than evaluating prospects himself?

With Bob-father in semi-retirement there really isn't anybody else I trust to do the former but Pronman might be the closest.

The idea any one guy can have a correct eval on 100s of prospects around the globe was always questionable but things go off the rails with him pretty quickly I find
 
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FriendlyGhost92 said:
He updated the list... It's still pretty rancid.

I'm not sure he's ever watched Simon Edvinsson play. He still refers to Michael Brandsegg-Nygard as "Average sized" but I guess I don't look at a 6' 1" 207 lb 18 year old as "Average sized" by NHL standards. Maybe for a position player in college football?
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NHL average size, at least according to the Athletic, is 6'1", 201 lbs. That's pretty damn close to exactly MBN's size.
 
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He uhhhh... certainly sticks to his guns.

One big issue, aside from rankings, is a lot of his little scouting blurbs are just.. wrong. Like he's not familiar enough with the player to give a qualified opinion. Random example... Sandin-Pellika has "average" puck skills? Like what?
 
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BagHead said:
NHL average size, at least according to the Athletic, is 6'1", 201 lbs. That's pretty damn close to exactly MBN's size.
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Sooooo he's already 207 as an 18 year old compared to grown men... That's kinda the point. If he never puts on another pound of muscle then yeah, he's average.

Not typically the case for 18 year old athletes...
 
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WarriorofTime said:
He uhhhh... certainly sticks to his guns.

One big issue, aside from rankings, is a lot of his little scouting blurbs are just.. wrong. Like he's not familiar enough with the player to give a qualified opinion. Random example... Sandin-Pellika has "average" puck skills? Like what?
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Lane Hutson also had "average puck skills" and Pronman said that he 'could still be a top4 Dman'.

People can come up with all criticism of Hutson in the world, but he's definitively already a top pairing Dman and his elite puck skills are the main reason why.
 
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