Pronman:NHL Draft 2025 top prospects: Porter Martone ranks No. 1, James Hagens drops to No. 2

[coooldude]

I don't think PPG is a fair way yet to judge a player, given we're talking about 8 games. But if that's the discussion people want to use, let's at least be fair to the player. His stats are tearing it up, even if they could be higher (for reasons mentioned and discussed earlier in this thread). You suggested they aren't (as part of a larger point about not solidifying 1OA). You can now try to claim you mean something more nuanced, but I was responding to what you initially wrote that he's not tearing it up.

So I'm going to go ahead and avoid a semantic debate about what "tearing it up" means. I don't think he's universally tearing it up given the games I cited. He "tore it up" vs St. Cloud with 4A in 2G. Is 1A in 2G "tearing it up" vs. Maine? You obviously disagree with me, that's fine, but let's just move on here.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

So I'm going to go ahead and avoid a semantic debate about what "tearing it up" means. I don't think he's universally tearing it up given the games I cited. He "tore it up" vs St. Cloud with 4A in 2G. Is 1A in 2G "tearing it up" vs. Maine? You obviously disagree with me, that's fine, but let's just move on here.

I'm saying overall. We can go back and forth about an individual game here or there. I don't think we'd disagree if we went game by game, but I was responding to what seemed like an overall analysis of his season so far.

 

[Mathieukferland]

The way the dynamic is developing at the top of the draft reminds me of 2013; projected 1C 200ft centre (Barkov/Hagens), high risk, high ceiling offensive dynamo (Misa/MacKinnon), projected 1D (Jones/Schaefer). Colorado was going to take Barkov before Roy arrived and forced them into taking MacKinnon, so we shall see who ends up at 1 this year and which piece fits for that team

 

[Fyodorov]

You're strawmanning me as part of some sort of "large group" that is being unfair to Hagens. I don't claim to be an expert, I don't have a strong opinion yet on him or Martone (frankly, my gut prefers Schaefer because I'm a Sharks fan and that's what I care about and if he keeps crushing it, that might be the best org fit for us).

My point was that you can't look at PPG yet because it's too early, and you can't look at just PPG even when it's been a whole season because performance in harder games matters.

My secondary point on the "tear it up" point is this: Hagens hasn't solidified 1OA from a "holy shit look at that production versus the top teams" point of view. But my primary point is that it doesn't really matter until we see the full body of work, and also, as you and others have pointed out, one more or less point here or there skews the PPG a huge amount.

That said:

• 2A in 2g vs MSU,
• 3 points vs DII Am Int'l
• 1 point vs Western Michigan
• 4A in 2g vs St. Cloud
• 1A in 2g vs. Maine

Hard to argue that he "has torn it up against those teams" to such an extent that he should have solidified 1OA clearly. tl;dr You can't put much stock in this start either way - can't knock him down, but ALSO can't claim that this start is so amazing and everyone is being unfair.

American International is D1, FYI.

 

[jfhabs]

With all due respect, I personally don't really see it. I think this draft is pretty average as far as drafts go.

But we'll know more about that as the year comes along. Right now we're still not even halfway done with the season so there is still a lot of runway for the players to start to elevate themselves.

Aside from some early-season hockey, we have past showings from last year to evaluate NHL prospects by; the Ivan-Hlinka, the U-17, and whatnot. But a short period of time can make a massive difference for young players, so we'll probably see massive rises out of certain prospects as we do each draft year starting in December/January.

There's another phenomenon at play that we should highlight also. And that is the very nature of scouting.

Speaking for myself only, as the year progresses I naturally start to know more about the prospects available at the draft, I have more showings to go off of, and I start really looking into and appreciating the small details in these kids' play. As I do so, I naturally start getting progressively more excited trying to project those prospects at the NHL level, trying to gauge how successful they might eventually be in the NHL and the different ways that they'd possibly have to "make it" there in the first place.

So yeah, with this combination of both natural risers, the proverbial "cream eventually rising to the top", and the natural "hyping-up" of the draft class as the year goes by, I'd bet real money on the middle part of the first-round looking a lot "spicier" in April/May than it currently appears right now to casual fans like us and even to the pros too.

As far as Pronman's list goes, I still reserve judgment given how early this all is, but not including Spence is in my opinion very weird. Others have mentioned it before but it really jumped-out to me as either a very jarring, "click-baitey" take on Pronman's part or plain forgetfulness, which is only human and normal to get things wrong.

Well, I don't disagree, that's why I said so far. I'm comparing that draft to previous drafts and this time of the year. Normally there are more players I see as potential impact players at this point. Like I said, I think the top 5 is very good, just thinks it fades faster than other drafts after that. Things and opinions can change. I hope I'm wrong, I'm all for the Habs being able to draft another Hage caliber player with CGY's pick.

 

[Kiirin]

There's a major detail people are forgetting. Fantili was one of the oldest players as a 19-year-old in his 2023 class and just missed the eligibility deadline for the 2022 draft class by a couple of days, while Hagens started the season at 17 and turned 18 last week. Essentially, you're comparing stats from a freshman with a "sophmore".

 

[JackSlater]

There's a major detail people are forgetting. Fantili was one of the oldest players as a 19-year-old in his 2023 class and just missed the eligibility deadline for the 2022 draft class by a couple of days, while Hagens started the season at 17 and turned 18 last week. Essentially, you're comparing stats from a freshman with a "sophmore".

You're wrong. Fantilli was just a few weeks older as a prospect in his draft year than Hagens is now. They are essentially the same age for draft purposes and both old for their draft class. Fantilli turned 18 near the beginning of his draft season and Hagens just turned 18.

I never come away wowed by Martone personally. Not that I have seen him that often.

 

[Wieters]

Will Smith, a highly flawed elite prospect who I'm not even convinced on, had some of his best games last year vs. best opposition, even early in the season when most people could see he wasn't really settled in yet. I'm not directly comparing the two - it was Smith's D+1 after all - I'm just making the point that just looking at PPG doesn't work for a number of reasons, and you'd expect a 1OA prospect to show great play, if not great production, against the best, even as a freshman.

Smith was in a unique position in the sense that he entered the NCAA as the center on a line with two elite wingers who he had played on the exact same line with for a very long time before then. If any set of circumstances are tailor made for immediate production, it's those ones. Hagens is now Smith's direct replacement on that line, but he didn't start in that position to begin the year, and he doesn't have the same track record as Smith did with the other guys.

 

[Kiirin]

You're wrong. Fantilli was just a few weeks older as a prospect in his draft year than Hagens is now. They are essentially the same age for draft purposes and both old for their draft class. Fantilli turned 18 near the beginning of his draft season and Hagens just turned 18.

I never come away wowed by Martone personally. Not that I have seen him that often.

Miscalculation on my part

 

[JackSlater]

Miscalculation on my part

Happens to everyone.

 

[ijuka]

does pronman still use the rankings where a player ranked #122 can have better attributes than a player ranked #2 ?