Pronman:NHL Draft 2025 top prospects: Porter Martone ranks No. 1, James Hagens drops to No. 2

[jfhabs]

So far that draft doesn't look deep at all. The top 5 looks very solid, but the guys I see in the 8-20 range seem weaker then the average draft.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Semantics aside, I feel most people had Fantilli as being a much better player at the same age as Hagens, Fantilli would be first overall if he was in this draft just based off of his college play. Fantilli was on pace to be the second most points by a first time draft eligible player in NCAA history (after only Kariya). Celebrini had higher hopes than Fantilli due to a more complete play style and less competing noise.

Hagens just isn't hitting the same level of hype as those guys and isn't doing enough to earn it.

You can think whatever you want. You're absolutely entitled to that, but Hagens is second on the second best team in college hockey in points, behind only Gabe Perreault (probably the Hobey Baker favorite). He has 3 more points than Ryan Leonard, a top 10 pick who is a year and a half older than him. He has 5 more points than Teddy Stiga (a second round pick this past year) and 9 more than Dean Letourneau (a first round pick this past year). He's putting up some of the best first year draft-eligible numbers in the early going this season of the 21st century.

 

[MS]

You can think whatever you want. You're absolutely entitled to that, but Hagens is second on the second best team in college hockey in points, behind only Gabe Perreault (probably the Hobey Baker favorite). He has 3 more points than Ryan Leonard, a top 10 pick who is a year and a half older than him. He has 5 more points than Teddy Stiga (a second round pick this past year) and 9 more than Dean Letourneau (a first round pick this past year). He's putting up some of the best first year draft-eligible numbers in the early going this season of the 21st century.

Nothing you've said here is incorrect, but equally nothing you've said changes the fact that Hagens is nowhere near Celebrini/Fantilli in their draft years. Both of those guys were producing at a higher level with less supporting talent and more/better intangibles.

 

[Artaud]

You can think whatever you want. You're absolutely entitled to that, but Hagens is second on the second best team in college hockey in points, behind only Gabe Perreault (probably the Hobey Baker favorite). He has 3 more points than Ryan Leonard, a top 10 pick who is a year and a half older than him. He has 5 more points than Teddy Stiga (a second round pick this past year) and 9 more than Dean Letourneau (a first round pick this past year). He's putting up some of the best first year draft-eligible numbers in the early going this season of the 21st century.

You are kind of proving his point. Fantilli's NCAA season was more impressive stats-wise than what you've laid out.

Hagens is impressive, but the number's he's put up (so far, lots of hockey to be played) are not on par with the elite NCAA draft prospects we've seen recently like Eichel, Celebrini, etc. Given that he's also a smaller center, it's hard to make a case for him against these guys.

 

[Just Linda]

You can think whatever you want. You're absolutely entitled to that, but Hagens is second on the second best team in college hockey in points, behind only Gabe Perreault (probably the Hobey Baker favorite). He has 3 more points than Ryan Leonard, a top 10 pick who is a year and a half older than him. He has 5 more points than Teddy Stiga (a second round pick this past year) and 9 more than Dean Letourneau (a first round pick this past year). He's putting up some of the best first year draft-eligible numbers in the early going this season of the 21st century.

Yes, compare that to Fantilli who produced at a much higher rate (1.8 pts per game to 1.35), out produced a number of older first round picks (Samoskevich, McGroarty) by sigficiant margins, won the Hobey Baker, led college hockey in scoring as a 17 year old. He also played on the second best team in College hockey in points if I'm not mistaken but was first too.

(National 2022-23 Scoring Leaders - College Hockey, Inc.)

Points aren't everything but he's also a fair bit behind Celebrini's pace too.

Fantilli was a lot more dominant and impressive than Hagens at the same age.

 

[Corso]

Nothing you've said here is incorrect, but equally nothing you've said changes the fact that Hagens is nowhere near Celebrini/Fantilli in their draft years. Both of those guys were producing at a higher level with less supporting talent and more/better intangibles.

Not many posters are saying that Hagens is at the level of a Fantili but neither is Martone. Look I like Martone a lot as well, but no way would I take him over Hagens. Is it an opinion, OF COURSE (this is all opinion based right??) but if you look at both players body of work, Hagens just comes out ahead. If you look at their skill set, again I would argue that Hagens comes out ahead. Size, strength, sure Martone all day but that isn't enough for me to take him over a much more dynamic and skilled center like Hagens. I wouldn't even take Martone over Misa and or Schaefer but that's just me.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Nothing you've said here is incorrect, but equally nothing you've said changes the fact that Hagens is nowhere near Celebrini/Fantilli in their draft years. Both of those guys were producing at a higher level with less supporting talent and more/better intangibles.

I take issue with the idea that Fantilli had demonstrably less talent around him. The Michigan teams he was on were loaded (Hughes, McGroarty, Casey, Nazar, Samoskevich, etc).

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

You are kind of proving his point. Fantilli's NCAA season was more impressive stats-wise than what you've laid out.

Hagens is impressive, but the number's he's put up (so far, lots of hockey to be played) are not on par with the elite NCAA draft prospects we've seen recently like Eichel, Celebrini, etc. Given that he's also a smaller center, it's hard to make a case for him against these guys.

I mean, we’re like 9 games into the season. The sample is ridiculously small. Hagens last game was I believe his first pointless game so far, so of course it drops his stats a little. His stats were like a smidge under all those (and Eichel) before that game. Maybe a little more now, but we’re in the sample range where a 3 or 4 point game and all of a sudden he’s ahead of those players and the discussion is completely reversed. Also worth mentioning that BC’s early season schedule was murderer’s row and things get a lot easier from here on out, so there will be some 9-1 wins coming against crappy programs where Hagens eats. Has an unsustainably low shooting percentage right now too.

The point is that he’s absolutely in the same realm, production wise. Better? Worse? A lot of hockey to be played, but Hagens will be a top 10 scorer in college hockey this season. Whether he’s the best or the fourth best or eighth best is still to be determined. Any of those slots would likely see him in the same realm as them.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Yes, compare that to Fantilli who produced at a much higher rate (1.8 pts per game to 1.35), out produced a number of older first round picks (Samoskevich, McGroarty) by sigficiant margins, won the Hobey Baker, led college hockey in scoring as a 17 year old. He also played on the second best team in College hockey in points if I'm not mistaken but was first too.

(National 2022-23 Scoring Leaders - College Hockey, Inc.)

Points aren't everything but he's also a fair bit behind Celebrini's pace too.

Fantilli was a lot more dominant and impressive than Hagens at the same age.

You are putting way too much into a small sample of eight games. Hagens has a big game and then he’s literally right there above those guys PPG. We’re in the silly range of small sample stats so early in the season where a big game or a 0 tilts the scale a lot. I think picking nits about a 1-3 points difference at this point early on in the season when the context is that BC has faced a ridiculously tough early season schedule (only 1 game that wasn’t very tough of 8) and also Hagens has an unsustainably low shooting percentage suggests you should expect his numbers to only rise. The sample is silly season. Like a week ago, he was ahead or just behind. A bad few scoring games and all of a sudden you’re claiming he’s demonstrably worse? That’s such a ridiculous argument.

And for the record, I think most believe that Celebrini had the better season than Fantilli, so I’m not sure being slightly higher or slightly lower even matters. The context behind the stats matters. BC’s whole team predictably hasn’t scored that many goals because they’ve played real competition. When they get a few games against these crappy programs, you’ll be singing a different tune, if stats is how you wanna judge players.

 

[Just Linda]

You are putting way too much into a small sample of eight games. Hagens has a big game and then he’s literally right there above those guys PPG. We’re in the silly range of small sample stats so early in the season where a big game or a 0 tilts the scale a lot. I think picking nits about a 1-3 points difference at this point early on in the season when the context is that BC has faced a ridiculously tough early season schedule (only 1 game that wasn’t very tough of 8) and also Hagens has an unsustainably low shooting percentage suggests you should expect his numbers to only rise. The sample is silly season. Like a week ago, he was ahead or just behind. A bad few scoring games and all of a sudden you’re claiming he’s demonstrably worse? That’s such a ridiculous argument.

And for the record, I think most believe that Celebrini had the better season than Fantilli, so I’m not sure being slightly higher or slightly lower even matters. The context behind the stats matters. BC’s whole team predictably hasn’t scored that many goals because they’ve played real competition. When they get a few games against these crappy programs, you’ll be singing a different tune, if stats is how you wanna judge players.

Surprisingly, I don't put a lot of stock into the numbers. For me it's the tools, it's Fantilli's size and speed and Celebrini's competitiveness and IQ. I feel Hagens has that elusiveness that neither had but I don't feel his skills are anywhere at their level. I've also heard a lot of others say similiar things.

 

[Mathieukferland]

Hagens is nowhere near Celebrini/Fantilli

I prefer Hagens to Fantilli, the point production might not be the same, but I was never a fan of his hockey sense or IQ, something that Hagens excels in. Even if Fantilli has better raw physical tools, similar to Martone, I wouldn’t take him over Hagens

 

[jj cale]

I prefer Hagens to Fantilli, the point production might not be the same, but I was never a fan of his hockey sense or IQ, something that Hagens excels in. Even if Fantilli has better raw physical tools, similar to Martone, I wouldn’t take him over Hagens

me neither, Hagens has hockey I.Q all over Fantilli.

 

[Nevins]

Aitcheson before Spence, Eklund, Ryabkin is excessive...and I like Aitcheson

 

[Intangir]

So far that draft doesn't look deep at all. The top 5 looks very solid, but the guys I see in the 8-20 range seem weaker then the average draft.

With all due respect, I personally don't really see it. I think this draft is pretty average as far as drafts go.

But we'll know more about that as the year comes along. Right now we're still not even halfway done with the season so there is still a lot of runway for the players to start to elevate themselves.

Aside from some early-season hockey, we have past showings from last year to evaluate NHL prospects by; the Ivan-Hlinka, the U-17, and whatnot. But a short period of time can make a massive difference for young players, so we'll probably see massive rises out of certain prospects as we do each draft year starting in December/January.

There's another phenomenon at play that we should highlight also. And that is the very nature of scouting.

Speaking for myself only, as the year progresses I naturally start to know more about the prospects available at the draft, I have more showings to go off of, and I start really looking into and appreciating the small details in these kids' play. As I do so, I naturally start getting progressively more excited trying to project those prospects at the NHL level, trying to gauge how successful they might eventually be in the NHL and the different ways that they'd possibly have to "make it" there in the first place.

So yeah, with this combination of both natural risers, the proverbial "cream eventually rising to the top", and the natural "hyping-up" of the draft class as the year goes by, I'd bet real money on the middle part of the first-round looking a lot "spicier" in April/May than it currently appears right now to casual fans like us and even to the pros too.

As far as Pronman's list goes, I still reserve judgment given how early this all is, but not including Spence is in my opinion very weird. Others have mentioned it before but it really jumped-out to me as either a very jarring, "click-baitey" take on Pronman's part or plain forgetfulness, which is only human and normal to get things wrong.

 

[JotAlan]

I don't understand this love for Martone, he's good, but Misa is the only one I see with the potential to be better than Hagens, he's producing at the same level as Martone, being younger, playing in a more important position and has that skating ability, Porter has heavy feet. That said, I believe that not even Misa should pass Hagens, perhaps Schaeffer because he is a defender.

1 Hagens
2 Misa
3 Schaeffer
4 Martone

 

[Corso]

I don't understand this love for Martone, he's good, but Misa is the only one I see with the potential to be better than Hagens, he's producing at the same level as Martone, being younger, playing in a more important position and has that skating ability, Porter has heavy feet. That said, I believe that not even Misa should pass Hagens, perhaps Schaeffer because he is a defender.

1 Hagens
2 Misa
3 Schaeffer
4 Martone

Yes. The way things are progressing, it's going to be between Hagens and Misa. I'd like to see a bit more of Schaeffer before deciding if he's really in contention for a 1OA spot.

 

[FlyguyOX]

Weak draft

 

[WarriorofTime]

You are putting way too much into a small sample of eight games. Hagens has a big game and then he’s literally right there above those guys PPG. We’re in the silly range of small sample stats so early in the season where a big game or a 0 tilts the scale a lot. I think picking nits about a 1-3 points difference at this point early on in the season when the context is that BC has faced a ridiculously tough early season schedule (only 1 game that wasn’t very tough of 8) and also Hagens has an unsustainably low shooting percentage suggests you should expect his numbers to only rise. The sample is silly season. Like a week ago, he was ahead or just behind. A bad few scoring games and all of a sudden you’re claiming he’s demonstrably worse? That’s such a ridiculous argument.

And for the record, I think most believe that Celebrini had the better season than Fantilli, so I’m not sure being slightly higher or slightly lower even matters. The context behind the stats matters. BC’s whole team predictably hasn’t scored that many goals because they’ve played real competition. When they get a few games against these crappy programs, you’ll be singing a different tune, if stats is how you wanna judge players.

It's funny how worked up people get about college stats when so much of the big numbers come from stat padding against really bad teams.

 

[coooldude]

It's funny how worked up people get about college stats when so much of the big numbers come from stat padding against really bad teams.

Yes, and also, the numbers cut both ways.

Like, you can make excuses for Hagens by saying he's had a tough schedule to start the season, and he has. But, if he had actually torn it up vs those teams, then he would have solidified his 1OA position. He didn't, so he hasn't. We'll have to see if his stat-padding comes exclusively from bad teams or if he also drives play and results vs good teams across the whole season.

Will Smith, a highly flawed elite prospect who I'm not even convinced on, had some of his best games last year vs. best opposition, even early in the season when most people could see he wasn't really settled in yet. I'm not directly comparing the two - it was Smith's D+1 after all - I'm just making the point that just looking at PPG doesn't work for a number of reasons, and you'd expect a 1OA prospect to show great play, if not great production, against the best, even as a freshman.

First problem we all have is that it's only Nov, but after that, just comparing PPG stats is too crude.

 

[WarriorofTime]

Yes, and also, the numbers cut both ways.

Like, you can make excuses for Hagens by saying he's had a tough schedule to start the season, and he has. But, if he had actually torn it up vs those teams, then he would have solidified his 1OA position. He didn't, so he hasn't. We'll have to see if his stat-padding comes exclusively from bad teams or if he also drives play and results vs good teams across the whole season.

Will Smith, a highly flawed elite prospect who I'm not even convinced on, had some of his best games last year vs. best opposition, even early in the season when most people could see he wasn't really settled in yet. I'm not directly comparing the two - it was Smith's D+1 after all - I'm just making the point that just looking at PPG doesn't work for a number of reasons, and you'd expect a 1OA prospect to show great play, if not great production, against the best, even as a freshman.

First problem we all have is that it's only Nov, but after that, just comparing PPG stats is too crude.

Yeah of course if he was just totally bombing it would be a big concern and “but good competition” would sound weak. But he’s doing good, just not breaking records or what have you. And it’s still early. So just the whole stat counting thing can be a bit overly analyzed. Not necessarily saying he has to go first overall or anything like that just because he was ranked that way on most lists preseason. We don’t need another Shane Wright situation on HFBoard.

 

[MichaelFarrell]

Personally, I feel like Hagens, Misa, Schaefer, and Martone are all in the same tier. I would be pretty much equally happy if my team selected any of them at this point.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Yes, and also, the numbers cut both ways.

Like, you can make excuses for Hagens by saying he's had a tough schedule to start the season, and he has. But, if he had actually torn it up vs those teams, then he would have solidified his 1OA position. He didn't, so he hasn't. We'll have to see if his stat-padding comes exclusively from bad teams or if he also drives play and results vs good teams across the whole season.

Will Smith, a highly flawed elite prospect who I'm not even convinced on, had some of his best games last year vs. best opposition, even early in the season when most people could see he wasn't really settled in yet. I'm not directly comparing the two - it was Smith's D+1 after all - I'm just making the point that just looking at PPG doesn't work for a number of reasons, and you'd expect a 1OA prospect to show great play, if not great production, against the best, even as a freshman.

First problem we all have is that it's only Nov, but after that, just comparing PPG stats is too crude.

There are multiple things wrong with your post. You and some others are quite literally starting to twist reality.

He has torn it up against those teams. To claim a player who is 3rd in NCAA in assists and 9th in total PPG hasn't torn it up is just a perversion of reality.

And I'm not sure his draft stock matters towards this. Can't we just judge his play on its own merits? Don't see anyone who has even tried claiming "he's so far beyond the other players in this draft" or anything like that. The issue is some of you have underplayed his success for whatever own reasons some of you have to do so. That needs to be pushed back on.

 

[coooldude]

There are multiple things wrong with your post. You and some others are quite literally starting to twist reality.

He has torn it up against those teams. To claim a player who is 3rd in NCAA in assists and 9th in total PPG hasn't torn it up is just a perversion of reality.

And I'm not sure his draft stock matters towards this. Can't we just judge his play on its own merits? Don't see anyone who has even tried claiming "he's so far beyond the other players in this draft" or anything like that. The issue is some of you have underplayed his success for whatever own reasons some of you have to do so. That needs to be pushed back on.

You're strawmanning me as part of some sort of "large group" that is being unfair to Hagens. I don't claim to be an expert, I don't have a strong opinion yet on him or Martone (frankly, my gut prefers Schaefer because I'm a Sharks fan and that's what I care about and if he keeps crushing it, that might be the best org fit for us).

My point was that you can't look at PPG yet because it's too early, and you can't look at just PPG even when it's been a whole season because performance in harder games matters.

My secondary point on the "tear it up" point is this: Hagens hasn't solidified 1OA from a "holy shit look at that production versus the top teams" point of view. But my primary point is that it doesn't really matter until we see the full body of work, and also, as you and others have pointed out, one more or less point here or there skews the PPG a huge amount.

That said:

• 2A in 2g vs MSU,
• 3 points vs DII Am Int'l
• 1 point vs Western Michigan
• 4A in 2g vs St. Cloud
• 1A in 2g vs. Maine

Hard to argue that he "has torn it up against those teams" to such an extent that he should have solidified 1OA clearly. tl;dr You can't put much stock in this start either way - can't knock him down, but ALSO can't claim that this start is so amazing and everyone is being unfair.

 

[VeteranPresence]

I'm no expert so I'll just say I think there is a non-zero chance Martone does end up going first and it all depends on the draft order. Chicago for example, IMO they take him to line up next to Bedard no questions asked. He's the dream winger for a smaller, slighter goal-scoring center.

I'm also not certain the Ducks don't take him if you look at their future roster composition:

Gauthier-Carlsson-Martone
McTavish-Zegras-Terry
Killorn-Strome-Sennecke

That is a HEAVY lineup and the kind of team that wears others down over 100+ regular season and playoff games. I wouldn't want my Oilers to play them when they're all in their prime years.

Everyone else though is screaming for a C. The Habs would be loaded with Caufield, Suzuki, Slafkovsky, Dach, Hagens and Demidov up-front. Nashville could finally develop their own 1C. San Jose and Columbus would have great 1-2 punches. We'll see but it's not impossible.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

You're strawmanning me as part of some sort of "large group" that is being unfair to Hagens. I don't claim to be an expert, I don't have a strong opinion yet on him or Martone (frankly, my gut prefers Schaefer because I'm a Sharks fan and that's what I care about and if he keeps crushing it, that might be the best org fit for us).

My point was that you can't look at PPG yet because it's too early, and you can't look at just PPG even when it's been a whole season because performance in harder games matters.

My secondary point on the "tear it up" point is this: Hagens hasn't solidified 1OA from a "holy shit look at that production versus the top teams" point of view. But my primary point is that it doesn't really matter until we see the full body of work, and also, as you and others have pointed out, one more or less point here or there skews the PPG a huge amount.

That said:

• 2A in 2g vs MSU,
• 3 points vs DII Am Int'l
• 1 point vs Western Michigan
• 4A in 2g vs St. Cloud
• 1A in 2g vs. Maine

Hard to argue that he "has torn it up against those teams" to such an extent that he should have solidified 1OA clearly. tl;dr You can't put much stock in this start either way - can't knock him down, but ALSO can't claim that this start is so amazing and everyone is being unfair.

I don't think PPG is a fair way yet to judge a player, given we're talking about 8 games. But if that's the discussion people want to use, let's at least be fair to the player. His stats are tearing it up, even if they could be higher (for reasons mentioned and discussed earlier in this thread). You suggested they aren't (as part of a larger point about not solidifying 1OA). You can now try to claim you mean something more nuanced, but I was responding to what you initially wrote that he's not tearing it up.